Long range forecast
Saturday 17 Oct - Monday 26 Oct
High pressure is expected to lie close to or across the UK through much of this period. This will mean largely fine and dry weather for many, perhaps with some overnight mist and fog patches. Weak frontal systems could bring some rain at times and if this happens it is most likely in the far south or perhaps far north of the UK. Winds are expected to be mostly light. Temperatures will likely be around normal for the time of year, with frosty mornings in the usual prone areas.
Tuesday 27 Oct - Tuesday 10 Nov
High pressure will probably be dominant at first with many areas fine and dry. A transition to more changeable or unsettled weather patterns is expected by the start of November with showers or longer spells of rain becoming more likely. Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above normal for the period as a whole.
Why isn't there more detail in the long-range forecast?
Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).