Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to be mainly at background levels. There is a chance coronal hole fast winds may connect early on the 15 May, which could result in some visible aurora for parts of northern Scotland and similar latitudes. It is more likely that these fast winds will begin later on the 15 May however which may bring some visible aurora for to these latitudes. Some enhanced aurora may persist into Saturday UTC evening, but aurora levels are expected to slowly fall back to background levels from Sunday.
Southern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to be mainly at background levels. There is a chance coronal hole fast winds may connect early on the 15 May, which could result in some visible aurora for parts of southern New Zealand and similar latitudes. It is more likely that these fast winds will begin later on the 15 May however which may bring some visible aurora for to these latitudes. Some enhanced aurora may persist into Saturday UTC evening, but aurora levels are expected to slowly fall back to background levels from Sunday.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate-class solar flares. Chance of G1/Minor storm intervals Days 1, 3 and 4 (13, 15 and 16 May).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Low, with only minor Common-class flaring observed. There are now four sunspot regions on the visible disc, with the large region in the west now rotated over the western limb. A region in the northeast is now the largest region on the disc and has seen some slight penumbral growth amongst its smaller southern spots, where a weak zone of mixed polarity may be developing. The remaining three regions are smaller and magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24hrs.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds showed some enhanced activity likely in association with a weak glancing CME or coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were initially at background levels below 400km/s but began to rise from around 13/1100 UTC, reaching slightly elevated levels of 450–500km/s for the remainder of the period. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was initially weak but increased to moderate levels from 13/0700 UTC. A sharp enhancement was observed at around 13/1100 UTC, potentially indicating the glancing CME arrival, followed by a rapid decline at 13/1200 UTC back to predominantly weak levels. The north–south component (Bz) was mostly weak and variable, although it briefly became moderately positive between 13/1100 and 1200 UTC. The resulting geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet to Unsettled levels (Kp 0–3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to continue generally Low, but with a slight chance of Moderate class flares, mainly from AR4436.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Current slightly enhanced solar winds are expected to return to background levels through Day 1 (14 May). The next fast wind enhancement is expected through Day 2 (15 May) from the large coronal hole in the centre of the disc. Enhanced solar wind conditions may persist through the remainder of the forecast period, with a gradual decline perhaps beginning from Day 4 (17 May).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1–3) on Day 1 (14 May). With the onset of fast solar winds expected on Day 2 (15 May), geomagnetic activity is forecast to increase to Unsettled to Active (Kp3–4), with a chance of G1/Minor storm intervals (Kp5) and a slight chance of G2/Moderate storms (Kp6). These conditions may persist into Day 3 (16 May) before returning to mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels (Kp1–3) during Day 4 (17 May).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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