Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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13:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
10%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
27
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
24
|
24
|
25
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
92%
|
92%
|
91%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
92%
|
92%
|
91%
|
89%
|
88%
|
87%
|
87%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
11
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
15
|
E
16
|
E
17
|
E
18
|
E
18
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
18
|
E
18
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
25
|
27
|
28
|
29
|
30
|
31
|
32
|
33
|
36
|
37
|
39
|
39
|
39
|
39
|
38
|
37
|
36
|
36
|
35
|
34
|
34
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
87%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
83%
|
79%
|
77%
|
77%
|
76%
|
78%
|
80%
|
81%
|
83%
|
84%
|
84%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
86%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
|
03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
16
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
28
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
85%
|
86%
|
86%
|
87%
|
88%
|
88%
|
88%
|
88%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
9
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
6
|
ENE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
89%
|
89%
|
91%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
92%
|
91%
|
89%
|
87%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
88%
|
89%
|
89%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
6
|
E
6
|
E
5
|
ENE
5
|
E
5
|
ENE
5
|
ENE
6
|
E
6
|
ESE
5
|
E
5
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
E
7
|
ESE
6
|
E
6
|
E
5
|
E
5
|
ESE
5
|
E
5
|
E
5
|
E
5
|
E
5
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
11
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
12
|
12
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
93%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
93%
|
91%
|
88%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
87%
|
92%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
8°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
6°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
5
|
ESE
5
|
ESE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
9
|
SE
8
|
SE
6
|
SE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
12
|
13
|
18
|
20
|
17
|
15
|
18
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
89%
|
85%
|
93%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
9
|
SE
10
|
SE
9
|
SE
10
|
SE
11
|
SE
10
|
ESE
9
|
SE
8
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
22
|
21
|
21
|
24
|
23
|
21
|
19
|
19
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
91%
|
91%
|
93%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
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Cloudy with rain to start on Wednesday, drier later.
Widespread cloud and outbreaks of mostly light rain spread north through the evening and overnight, this falling as snow over the hills. Occasionally strong easterly winds around the coast. Minimum temperature 2 °C.
Cloudy with outbreaks of rain in the morning. This gradually clearing north to become mainly dry but still quite cloudy from mid-afternoon. Occasionally strong easterly winds around the coast. Maximum temperature 8 °C.
Staying largely cloudy with some outbreaks of rain at times, strong easterly winds along the east coast. Drier with some brightness possible on Thursday.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: