Space Weather Forecast Headline: High solar activity expected initially. Further G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms likely Days 1-2 (05-06 Jul), chance G3/Strong intervals Day 1 (05 Jul). Chance of S1/Minor radiation storms throughout.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been high over the past 24 hours, including multiple Moderate class flares and a strong flare from a region in the far east at 04/2041 UTC. There are now six sunspot regions currently on the visible disc. The two large regions in the far west have historically been the largest and most active regions. However, both regions are becoming increasingly difficult to analyse as they approach the western limb. A sunspot currently rotating over the far east of the disc shows some evidence of being a larger region, already responsible for the recent strong flare and will continue to be monitored as it rotates onto the Earth-facing disc. The remaining regions are smaller and comparatively simple. 

Despite numerous CMEs (coronal mass ejections) seen off the sun in the past 24 hours, none are expected to have an Earth directed component. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind measurements showed disturbed conditions due to CME influences. Solar wind speeds were elevated to strong 570-650km/s, with the peak at 1316 UTC. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was strong for much of the period, peaking at 24nT initially, before declining to Moderate from around 1500 UTC, then became weak into the evening. The North-South component became strongly negative at around 0100UTC, then slowly rotated to become weakly positive from around 0930UTC. Geomagnetic activity was mostly at G1-G2/Minor to Moderate storm levels, with a G3/Strong storm interval at 0300-0600 UTC. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels, but with a recent slight increase, although levels remain well below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: High solar activity is likely to continue, at least initially, with occasional Moderate class flares and a chance of isolated strong flares. This risk declining slightly during the period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Multiple CMEs (coronal mass ejections) have enhanced the near-Earth solar environment, with strong solar wind observed following arrivals on 03–04 July. Further CMEs emitted between 01–02 Jul may result in additional arrivals on Days 1–2 (05–06 Jul), with the most significant having a possible arrival around 05/11:00 UTC, although timing remains uncertain. Coronal hole fast winds may connect with Earth late on Day 4 (08 July), although are considered more likely past this forecast period. 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) for much of Day 1 (05 July), with a likelihood of further G1-G2/Minor to Moderate storming and a chance of isolated G3/Strong storm intervals, most likely following any further CME arrivals. Activity is then expected to steadily reduce through the period, with a slight chance of G1/Minor storms returning late Day 4 (08 July) due to potential fast wind influence.  

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained below the S1/Minor radiation storm level on 03rd July, despite some minor enhancements. There is a chance of reaching above the S1 level during this period due to the active regions near the western limb.