Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1/Minor storms Expected days 2 (11 Jun) and likely day 3 (12 Jun). Chance of isolated M-class flares throughout. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Low, with occasional small common class flares. There are eight sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The largest region is a moderately-sized group in the northeast, which maintains very small mixed polarity spots on its northern periphery, however this has remained stable. The other moderately sized region is a relatively simple bipolar group, now approaching the south-centre. The other regions are all small, simple and declining, including the region which is now approaching the northwest limb and very difficult to assess.

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was seen leaving the northeast of the Sun at around 09/1557 UTC, with another CME observed from the southwest, around 09/1918 UTC. These have been assessed as relatively slow CMEs that are largely missing, but may give glancing impacts on day 4 (June 13).

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were slightly elevated at first, easing after the a weak CME arrival just before this period. These speeds eased from 400-500km/s to be Background from 10/0150 UTC, at just below 400km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Moderate at first, but quickly eased to be mainly Weak from 09/1515 UTC. The north-south component (Bz) varied weakly between +4/-8nT. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained at Background, with no solar radiation storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to be Low, but with a chance of rising to Moderate due to isolated Moderate-class flares and a slight chance of a Strong flare.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are two CMEs that could give earth a glance on day 4 (13 Jun). Otherwise, current Background solar winds are expected to continue until the onset of the fast winds of a a coronal hole on day 2 (11 Jun), with wind speeds becoming Elevated. These easing again day 4 (13 Jun). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet at first, but expected to rise to Active to G1 Minor Storm with the fast wind onset, before easing again to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled by day 4 (13 Jun). However any CME arrival could bring a further Active spell with a slight chance of G1 Minor Storms.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to remain at Background, with no solar radiation storms occurring.