Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to be at background levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to be at background levels.
Issued at: 18:12 (GMT) on Sun 10 May 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate solar flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with occasional Common-class flare activity.
There are currently five sunspot regions on the visible disc. AR4432, a bipolar region located in the northwest, has shown further areal growth and development, and maintains some mixed magnetic structure. A recently emerged returning region towards the northeast limb remains difficult to accurately classify due to limb proximity, but looks to be a moderate size asymmetric bipolar group. Remaining regions are smaller, stable and magnetically simple.
No Earth directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slowly declining fast wind stream. Solar wind speeds were slightly elevated, initially around 490km/s, but saw a gradual decline through the period to current levels around 430km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak, with the important north-south component also Weak, and variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy proton flux was at Background, with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to remain generally Low, but with a chance of isolated Moderate solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A faint coronal mass ejection (CME) from 06 May may give some limited glancing influence during 10 May, although confidence is low. Otherwise, the current fast wind enhancement from CH50/+ is expected to continue to slowly decline, returning to Background from day 2 (11 May).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet (Kp 0-2), with isolated Unsettled (Kp 3) intervals through the period. There is just a Slight Chance of Active to G1/Minor storm (Kp 4-5) intervals, should any glancing CME effects be observed on day 1 (10 May).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.
Issued at: 12:14 (GMT) on Sun 10 May 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: