Space Weather Forecast Headline: High solar activity expected initially. Potential for further G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms Days 1-2 (05-06 Jul), slight chance G3/Strong intervals. Chance of S1/Minor radiation storms throughout. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been High over the past 24 hours, including multiple Moderate-class flares and a Strong flare from a new region on the east limb at 04/2041 UTC. There are now seven sunspot regions on the visible disc, with one region departing the west limb, but two small new regions emerging. Two regions in the west have been the largest and most active regions in recent days. However, both regions are becoming increasingly difficult to analyse as they approach the western limb, with one of these starting to rotate over the limb and moving out of view. The next sunspot potentially of note will be the new region in the east, which is currently rotating over the eastern limb and is starting to show signs of a trailing spot. The remaining regions are small and simple. 

Despite numerous Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) seen off the Sun in the past 24 hours, none are expected to have an Earth directed component. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed declining CME influences. Wind speeds were initially strong up to 650km/s, easing to slightly elevated around 480 km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was moderate to strong at first, but eased to become weak. The North-South component was mostly northward directed at first, with some brief southward incursions, but is now weakly southward directed. Geomagnetic activity was at G1-G3/Minor to Strong storm levels initially, easing to become mostly Quiet. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was slightly raised at first, easing to normal background levels, but levels remained well below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: High solar activity is likely to continue, at least initially, with occasional Moderate-class flares and a chance of an isolated Strong flare. Three major regions departing during this period may be offset somewhat by the new region arriving in the east. As a result, flare probabilities reduce a little, but with some uncertainty until we get a better view of the new region.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing CME effects from 03-04 July are now easing, with wind speeds now slightly elevated on a declining trend. Further CMEs emitted between 01–02 Jul may result in additional arrivals on Day 1 (05 Jul), although timing remains uncertain. Confidence in these CMEs arriving at Earth, and their potential impacts, remains low. A coronal hole in the eastern hemisphere is not expected to give fast winds at Earth until just after this forecast period, although there is a slight risk it may connect late on Day 4 (08 Jul), with speeds of 600km/s seen on last rotation.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4) on Day 1, with the potential for further G1-G2/Minor to Moderate storming and a slight chance of isolated G3/Strong storm intervals, should there be any further CME arrivals. Activity is then expected to steadily reduce through the period, with a slight chance of G1/Minor storms returning late Day 4 due to potential fast wind influence.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained below the S1/Minor radiation storm level on 03-04 July, despite some minor enhancements. There is a chance of reaching above the S1 level during this period due to the sunspot regions near the western limb.