Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A glancing Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrived late on 10 Jan (UTC), with aurora becoming enhanced for a time, mainly across northern Scotland, and similar geomagnetic latitudes. Further aurora sightings are possible in northern Scotland and similar latitudes, Sunday night and maybe from Tuesday night but this is considered low confidence.
Southern Hemisphere
A glancing Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrived late on 10 Jan (UTC), with aurora becoming enhanced for a time. Further viewings are possible on 11 Jan (UTC) for Tasmania, New Zealand's South Island, and similar geomagnetic latitudes and maybe from 13 Jan (UTC) though this is considered low confidence. Limited hours of darkness at this time of year may limit the visibility.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Storms day 1 (11 Jan) from recent Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrival and Day 3-4 (13-14 Jan) from fast wind.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with only Common-class flares observed. There are currently four sunspot regions on the disc. The largest, in the south-centre disc, has seen continued fading of its intermediate spots. Its trailer spot still maintains its delta spot. A region in the southwest has declined, having lost its trailer spot. Another region has reappeared in the south-centre disc. Finally, there is a stable and simple region on the northwest limb.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the ongoing influence of a coronal hole. Solar wind speeds were initially Slightly Elevated, ranging between 450-500km/s, before increasing to Elevated and Strong levels, peaking at 628km/s at 10/2009UTC, following the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), which left the Sun on 08 Jan. Solar winds are currently Elevated, between 500-550km/s. The Magnetic Field was Weak initially, before rapidly increasing to Strong levels following the CME arrival. It has been Moderate since 11/0205UTC. The all important north-south component, Bz, was also Weak initially, and mostly negative (southward), becoming briefly Strong due to CME influence before returning to Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4), with a G2/Moderate Storm (Kp7) intervals observed at 10/1800-2100 UTC and 10/2100-0000 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is expected with only a slight chance of Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) which left the Sun on 08 Jan following an filament eruption near a sunspot region south-centre disc, arrived at Earth late on 10 Jan. Solar winds increased, briefly to Strong levels, before a gradual decline to the current Elevated levels. Otherwise, current fast winds from a coronal hole and the recent CME influence, should gradually ease on Day 1 (11 Jan). However, a further re-enhancement is possible on Days 3 and 4 (13-14 Jan) from the easternmost portion of CH12/-.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled or Active intervals on Day 1 (11 Jan) with a Chance of G1/ Minor Storm intervals. Active to G1/Minor Storm intervals are likely Days 3-4 (13-14 Jan) if any further fast wind connection occurs.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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