Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Fast solar winds have the potential to bring periods of Minor geomagnetic storms on Tuesday into Wednesday before easing through the rest of the week. This will bring the possibility of visible aurora for Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, with a slight chance of glimpses as far south as northern England or Northern Ireland, although this is low confidence.
Southern Hemisphere
Fast solar winds have the potential to bring periods of Minor geomagnetic storms on Tuesday into Wednesday before easing through the rest of the week. This will bring the possibility of visible aurora for New Zealand's South Island, Tasmania and similar geomagnetic latitudes with lower confidence for any potential further north.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1/Minor Storms likely Day 1 (29 Oct), slight chance of G2/Moderate Storms.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with just one Common-class flare in the last 24 hours. There are currently eight regions on the disc, with a new region developing very close to a region near centre disc. Both regions are currently straightforward in themselves, but their proximity to each other may cause some instability. Another region in the northwest has seen a slight increase of penumbra on some of its spots. All spots are small and otherwise simple at this time.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed signs of a weak coronal hole fast wind. Wind speeds were initially at background, around 370km/s, but gradually rose to slightly elevated, now varying between 430-470 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength was moderate throughout. The north-south component also varied moderately, but was mostly southward directed. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has been at background levels, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very low activity is expected, but with isolated Common-class flares likely, and a slight but increasing chance of a Moderate-class flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Earth appears to be experiencing a weak fast wind, probably from the edge of a large southern coronal hole. The fast wind from a smaller but more equatorial coronal hole is likely to arrive during Day 1 (29 Oct). Wind speeds of 500-600 km/s are now thought most probable during Days 1-2 (29-30 Oct), this likely to ease a little later in the period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to G1/Minor Storm on Days 1-2 (29-30 Oct), with a slight chance of isolated G2/Moderate Storm intervals. Activity is likely to ease Days 3-4 (31 Oct-01 Nov) to become Quiet to Active, but still with a slight chance of further G1/Minor Storm intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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