Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. Chance of G1/Minor Storm Days 1 and 4 (22/25 Oct).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with occasional Common class flares. There are three sunspot regions on the disc. The region on the west limb was previously the most active, however this is no longer fully visible as it is rotating off the disc. A region in the northwest has declined slightly in area, and remains a fairly straightforward region. Another region in the northwest quadrant has seen slight growth of penumbra, and appears to have developed a little magnetic complexity.

During 21 Oct, a re-alignment of the Sun's outer layer appears to have been responsible for at least one CME. Initial analysis suggests the CME will mostly pass behind Earth's orbit, but given the central location of the likely lift off point, a glancing blow is possible, likely during Day 4 (25 Oct). 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a weak connection to coronal hole fast winds. Wind speeds were initially mostly background, between 370-410 km/s, but increased to vary between 450-520 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly moderate, with the north-south component also varying moderately, favouring a southward (negative) orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4), with a G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) interval 21/2100-2359 UTC.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles persisting at background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Mainly Low activity is expected to continue, but with a slight chance of increasing to Moderate.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: During 21 Oct, a re-alignment of the Sun's outer layer generated at least one CME, and a new coronal hole near centre disc. Initial analysis of the CME suggests it will mostly pass behind Earth's orbit, but a glancing blow is possible, likely during Day 4 (25 Oct). Weak influence from the current fast wind is likely to erratically decline towards background on Day 1 into Day 2 (22-23 Oct). The newly developed coronal hole near centre disc could give fast winds Day 3 into Day 4 (24-25 Oct), although with low confidence.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active at first, with a chance of G1/Minor storm intervals, easing to mostly Quiet during Day 1. The potential onset of fast winds during Days 3-4 then perhaps bringing Unsettled to Active conditions with a slight chance of G1/Minor storm intervals, this becoming a chance of G1 during Day 4 if the CME arrives.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles expected to persist at background levels.