Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No significant space weather activity is expected with aurora sightings unlikely.
Southern Hemisphere
No significant space weather activity is expected with aurora sightings unlikely.
Issued at: 01:13 (GMT) on Thu 15 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with isolated Common-class flares, with the strongest flare from the sunspot region which is now behind the northwest limb. There are currently six sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, however the majority of these are small and simple. The exception is the large region in the southeast, which has remained inactive despite moderate magnetic complexity.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have been indicative of a fast wind from a coronal hole, which is located in the western hemisphere. Solar wind speeds were Strong to Elevated, peaking 650km/s at 14/0139 UTC. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component Weakly fluctuated. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisting at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue with a chance of rising to Moderate, with any significant flares most likely from the large region in the southeast.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth directed CME's are expected. Ongoing Elevated solar winds from the coronal hole feature are expected initially Day 1 (15 Oct), before declining to become Slightly Elevated through Day 1 or more likely through Days 2-3 (16-17 Oct), then possibly reaching Background levels by late Day 4 (18 Oct). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled, with a slight chance of Active intervals day 1 (15 Oct). Activity then declines to become mainly Quiet from day 2 (16 Oct) onwards.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is only a slight chance of Solar Radiation Storms through the period, with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) expected to persist at Background.
Issued at: 00:29 (GMT) on Thu 15 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: