Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is an increasing chance of some limited auroral enhancements Thursday (UTC) onwards with faster solar winds expected to arrive at Earth. Any aurora is likely to be limited to higher latitudes, with a chance of visibility from the north of Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
There is an increasing chance of some limited auroral enhancements Thursday (UTC) onwards with faster solar winds expected to arrive at Earth. Any aurora is likely to be limited to higher latitudes, with a chance of visibility from the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes. Visibility is likely to be limited by the shorter hours of darkness at this time of year, however.
Issued at: 01:47 (GMT) on Fri 6 Nov 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate-class flares throughout. Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Days 1-3 (06-08 Nov).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, with a flare which peaked at 05/1833 UTC from the most complex region in the southeast of the disc. This has significant magnetic complexity and it has also been growing new spots in recent hours. Another region at north centre disc has been growing more peripheral spots, mainly to the north, which could increase magnetic instability. Remaining regions are small and simple at the present time.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Whilst the Moderate flare from the more complex region appears to have produced a narrow CME, this appears to be travelling well to the east in available coronagraph imagery and is considered unlikely to be Earth directed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were slow-ambient. Wind speeds were slow, varying between 310-380 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component varying weakly, and was mostly southward directed. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected, with a chance of further Moderate-class flares from the most complex region on the disc, and a slight chance of Strong flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun on 01 Nov is a most likely miss, but may glance Earth early on Day 1 (06 Nov). The next feature of interest is a coronal hole fast wind. The onset time is low confidence, perhaps with a weak onset during Day 1 (06 Nov), followed by a stronger fast wind into Day 2 (07 Nov). Solar winds are expected to become strong, likely reaching 550-650 km/s, and probably lasting for much of the period once established.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet (Kp 0-2) at first, becoming Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) with a chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) intervals as the fast wind sets in, then with activity likely declining later in the period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is likely to remain at background levels, but there is a rising slight chance of exceeding the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold.
Issued at: 00:44 (GMT) on Fri 6 Nov 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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