Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at predominantly background at the start of the period. However, geomagnetic activity is expected to increase late on 29 April or 30 April UTC to give some slight enhancements in the aurora on Wednesday or Thursday night UTC. However, any visible aurora will likely be limited to northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at predominantly background at the start of the period. However, geomagnetic activity is expected to increase late on 29 April or 30 April UTC to give some slight enhancements in the aurora on Wednesday or Thursday night UTC. However, any visibility will likely remain limited to high geomagnetic latitudes such as New Zealand's South Island.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: M Flares expected and increasing chance of G1 late day 3 into day 4.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity:
Activity measured at GOES19 remained Moderate, with occasional Moderate-class flares observed.
There are now six sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest area is in the northwest and has not increased in size during this period but does have magnetic complexity. Another sunspot region in the northeast has recently increased in size and complexity. Other areas are relatively small and magnetically simple. No obviously earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been seen, but one from a recent flare is awaiting analysis.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind speed has been Slightly Elevated and is currently around 450-470km/s. The north-south component of the field, Bz, had a variable tendency. However around 26/0830 UTC it become more positive , before becoming generally negative from 26/1900 UTC.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was provisionally Quiet to Active, with British Geological Survey (BGS) magnetometers recording a peak of Kp '4' in the 03-06UTC interval.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate solar activity is Expected to continue at first, with occasional Moderate‑class flares and a slight chance of isolated Strong flares. This flare risk expected to decrease slightly through the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds are likely to peak around 450-500km/s at the start of Day 1 (27 Apr) before slowly declining. They may increase towards the end of day 3 (29 Apr) or day 4 (30 Apr) due to the influence of a coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity due to the fast winds is likely to be fairly muted due to unfavourable polarity of the coronal holes for this time of year.
Geomagnetic activity will likely to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3), with some Active (Kp 4) intervals possible. Activity becoming Unsettled to G1, with a Slight Chance of G2 by end of day 3 (29 Apr) or day 4 (30 Apr).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high‑energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is forecast to remain at Background levels throughout the period with a Slight Chance of exceeding S1.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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