Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of R1/Radio Blackouts. Chance of G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Geomagnetic storms Days 1-2 (11-12 Jul). 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with a single Common-class flare from a sunspot region located in the southwest quadrant. There are four sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. The large region near the central meridian has continued to decrease, although it currently maintains some of its small peripheral and trailing spots. The most active region resides in the southwest, which has shown continued slight growth, mainly within the intermediate portion, though has now simplified in magnetic configuration. The remaining regions are small and magnetically simple.

The aforementioned Common-class flare from the sunspot region located in the southwest quadrant did produce a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), which was seen in coronagraph imagery. This has been analysed and results suggest a possible glancing blow late on Day 3 (13 Jul) or early Day 4 (14 Jul). No other Earth directed CMEs were seen in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a fast wind from a coronal hole. Winds speeds were Elevated to Strong, ranging between 540km/s and 680km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak to Moderate. The north-south component, Bz, varied moderately and was mostly southward orientated. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Mostly Low or Very Low activity, but with a Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed leaving the Sun at 09/0713 UTC. This is Likely to give a glancing blow late Day 1 or Day 2 (11-12 Jul). The CME associated with the Common-class flare from the sunspot region located in the southwest has been analysed and results a possible glancing blow late on Day 3 (13 Jul) or early Day 4 (14 Jul).. No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed.

Solar wind speeds have become Elevated to Strong, due to expected coronal hole fast winds. Strong solar wind speeds are likely to continue on Day 1 (11 Jul), gradually easing. However, the possible coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival later Day 1 into Day 2 (11-12 Jul) could prolong Elevated wind speeds for much of this period. A further coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, may bring some slight enhancements to the solar wind around the time of any coronal mass ejection arrival, however, this is low confidence with Earth currently well to the north of the solar equator and these faster winds may pass below Earth's orbit.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled at first on Day 1 (11 Jul) increasing to Active, with a Chance of G1-G2 Minor-Moderate storm conditions with any CME arrivals late Day 1 into Day 2 (11-12 Jul). Geomagnetic activity is likely to ease again by Day 3 (13 Jul). Slight chance of G1 Minor Storm late on Day 3 or early Day 4 (13-14 Jul) due to possible glancing CME from the 10 Jul. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to remain at background levels.