Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is a low likelihood of slightly increased geomagnetic activity Sunday into Monday, leading to a slight chance of visible aurora across the far north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes where skies are clear. Confidence is lower than is typical.
Southern Hemisphere
There is a low likelihood of slightly increased geomagnetic activity Sunday into Monday, leading to a slight chance of visible aurora at high geomagnetic latitudes. Confidence is lower than is typical.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Strong flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with two Moderate-class flares, the largest at 08/1118 UTC from the large sunspot region in the northwest, and a further flare from just over the northwest limb. There are eight visible sunspot regions. The large and complex region in the northwest disc is the only region of note, and despite maturing with a reduction of activity maintains a strong mixed polarity spot to the northwest of its trailer spot with a subsequent recent uptick in activity.
There are no Earth-directed CMEs (Corona Mass Ejections)
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed waning fast winds from a coronal hole. The wind speed was slightly elevated and variable around 450km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak with north-south component weakly varying. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled at first (Kp2-3), but eased to be Quiet after 08/0000 UTC (Kp 1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) is at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is forecast, with further Moderate-class flares likely from the large and complex region. There remains a chance of activity becoming High with Strong (X-class) flares
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs with the CME that left the Sun on 03 Feb having likely missed. Current slightly elevated solar winds are expected to see a further period of enhancement from coronal hole fast winds either later day 1 or day 2 (08-09 Feb). Wind speeds of around 500-550 km/s are likely, before easing day 3 onward (10 Feb). Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mainly Quiet at first, increasing to Unsettled to Active with a chance of G1 Minor Storms for a time later day 1 and day 2 (08-09 Feb) before easing back to be Quiet to Unsettled day 3-4 (10-11 Feb).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at Background, but with a chance of rising above as a result of any notable flares from the large and complex sunspot region on the northwest disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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