Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of further Moderate solar flares.  Slight chance of G1/Kp5 geomagnetic activity Days 1-3 (03-05 June).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Moderate, with three low-level Moderate-class flare observed during the period, peaking at 02/1650 UTC from a moderately sized region, currently located in the north-centre disc.

There are eight sunspot regions on the visible disc. The north-centre disc region increased in size and magnetic complexity during the period with the development an arc of small negative polarity spots to the south and west of the large, positive mature spot. Minor shearing of these spots was evident in available imagery indicating increased magnetic instability and evidence of flux emergence. 

The region located in the southeast, approaching south-centre disc, appears broadly similar to before, although some longitudinal spreading of the group is apparent. Two newly numbered regions have recently emerged on the east limb, although these regions are difficult to assess at present due to the foreshortening effect. All other regions appeared stable with limited development observed. 

An Moderate-class flare observed at 02/1005 UTC from the magnetically complex region located north-centre disc produced a narrow coronal mass ejection (CME), which has been analysed. Results show a possible glancing arrival at Earth on Day 3 (05 Jun). However, this was difficult to analyse due to lack of imagery. Moderate confidence. 

A peak Moderate-class flare was observed at 02/1650 UTC from the aforementioned region, near north-centre disc, although currently awaiting further coronagraph imagery for analysis of this event to ascertain any potential Earth-directed component. 

No other Earth-directed have been observed in the past 24 hours. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were at Slow-ambient to Slightly Elevated levels, ranging between 350 and 430km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component was also Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp1-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels were at normal background values.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Mainly Low or Moderate, with a chance of further Moderate-class flares. Should the sunspot in the north-centre disc continue to develop then High activity could be reached, either as a result of more frequent Moderate flares, or isolated Strong flares occurring.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: N

The aforementioned Moderate-class flare which was observed at 02/1005 UTC from the sunspot region located near north-centre disc produced a narrow coronal mass ejection (CME) which has been analysed. The results show a possible glance at Earth on Day 3 (05 Jun). However, this was difficult to analyse due to lack of imagery. Moderate confidence. 

Slow-ambient to Slightly Elevated solar winds should persist until either late Day 1 (03 June) or Day 2 (04 June) as a trans-equatorial coronal hole becomes geo-effective. Speeds should increase to Elevated or Strong levels (most likely 550-600km/s) following this onset, then likely falling away from peak speeds during Days 3 and 4 (05-06 June). There is a chance of a glancing CME on Day 3 (05 Jun), although this is moderate confidence. 

Following the onset of the coronal hole fast wind either late Day 1 (03 June) or on Day 2 (04 June) activity will likely increase to Unsettled to Active levels with a slight chance of isolated G1/Kp5 intervals occurring. By Day 3 (05 June) activity should trend to Quiet or Unsettled again, though dependent on any anticipated glancing CME, which may give Active or slight chance of G1/minor storm intervals. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar Radiation counts are at normal background levels and expected to remain so through the period.