Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

The auroral oval is expected to remain mostly quiet, with only limited auroral sightings anticipated.

Southern Hemisphere

The auroral oval is expected to remain mostly quiet, with only limited auroral sightings anticipated.

Issued at: 15:18 (GMT) on Thu 21 May 2026

Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: Solar activity is generally Low.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has remained at Low Levels with no significant flares seen. There are six sunspot regions on the visible disc. The most active region in recent days has started to rotate off the northwest limb, making it increasingly difficult to analyse. Another region, also in the northwest, has shown an increase in complexity and shown some growth in it's intermediate spots. A new region has emerged around the northeast limb, though this is small and difficult to analyse due to it's position. The other regions are small and simple in their magnetic configuration.

There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the past 24hrs.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds have been slowly declining and are currently Slightly Elevated at 410-450 km/s. the Interplanetary Field (Bt) was Weak, while the north-south component (Bz) was Weak and variable. As a result the geomagnetic activity has been generally Quiet (Kps 1-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at or near Background. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low solar activity is expected to continue, though there is a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs feature in the forecast. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue declining towards Background on Day 1 (21 May). No significant enhancements are anticipated over the following days.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain largely at Quiet to Unsettled levels (Kp1–3). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES >10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Issued at: 12:04 (GMT) on Thu 21 May 2026

Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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