Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Mostly background geomagnetic activity is expected at first, with aurora sightings unlikely and limited to high latitudes. Late on 01 Oct into early 02 Oct (UTC), a Coronal Mass Ejection may glance Earth, bringing a chance of visible aurora to Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes. A coronal hole fast wind may then bring further visible aurora to Scotland from late 03 Oct into 04 Oct (UTC).
Southern Hemisphere
Mostly background geomagnetic activity is expected at first, with aurora sightings unlikely and limited to high latitudes. Late on 01 Oct into early 02 Oct (UTC), a Coronal Mass Ejection may glance Earth, bringing a chance of visible aurora to the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes. A coronal hole fast wind may then bring further visible aurora to the south of New Zealand from late 03 Oct into 04 Oct (UTC).
Issued at: 03:06 (GMT) on Thu 1 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor geomagnetic storms Days 2-4 (01-03 Oct), likely on Day 4 (04 Oct).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low during the last 24 hours, with a peak flare of C8.6 at 30/0246 UTC from the northwest disc. There are two sunspot regions on the visible disc. The area in the northwest has seen some recent penumbral growth in it's intermediate spots and has been the most active region for flares. The southwestern area remains a small bipolar region with little change.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with the C8.6 flare has been analysed, but is considered more likely to miss ahead of Earth's orbit.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as observed by SOLAR-1 at L1, showed background conditions. Wind speeds varied between 270-300km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak. The north-south component, Bz, varied weakly between positive and negative. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 >10MeV proton flux was at normal background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is likely to be Low or Very Low, with a chance of further Common-class flares and a slight chance of Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which occurred around 28/1430 UTC is likely to give Earth a glancing blow either late Day 1 (01 Oct) or more likely early Day 2 (02 Oct). A further CME which emerged on 30 September is expected to miss Earth. No coronal hole fast wind enhancements are expected until a connection occurs either late on Day 3 (03 Oct) or early Day 4 (04 Oct). with wind speeds likely reaching 500-600 km/s and possibly higher at 600-700km/s.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled at first. This becoming Unsettled to Active with a chance of G1/Minor storm and a slight chance of G2/Moderate storm intervals on Days 1-2 (01-02 Oct), should we see glancing influence from the 28 Sep CME. Activity likely declining later Day 2 into early Day 3 (02-03 Oct), before potentially increasing again later Day 3 or Day 4 (03-04 Oct) if we see the fast wind from CH98/+.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Issued at: 00:14 (GMT) on Thu 1 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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