Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Mostly weak Coronal Mass Ejection effects could give some minor enhancements to the auroral oval on 15-16 July UTC. There is a chance of aurora over the north of Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes, however the short hours of darkness are likely to limit any viewings.
Southern Hemisphere
Mostly weak Coronal Mass Ejection effects could give some minor enhancements to the auroral oval on 15-16 July UTC. There is a chance of aurora becoming visible from the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 00:48 (GMT) on Wed 15 Jul 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Day 1 (15 Jul), easing from Day 2 (16 Jul). Slight but increasing chance of Moderate solar activity.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with the maximum flare peaking at 14/1239 UTC, from a region beyond the eastern limb. There are two sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. Both are now simple regions, with a region in the southwest being the largest. A flare on the 14th Jul from over the southeast limb suggests there may be a new region yet to rotate over the limb, but Solar Orbiter imagery suggests this is unlikely to be a large or complex region.
No Earth-directed CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) were observed in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a weak CME arrival at 14/1440 UTC, along with some fast wind influence from the small coronal hole in the west of the disc. Wind speeds were initially at background, around 360km/s but rose to 470 km/s through the period. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly Moderate until around 15/0441 UTC, at which point it became weak. The north-south component, Bz, varied weakly at first, then moderately after the CME arrival. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Very Low activity is expected to continue, with just a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. The flare risk may rise a little towards the end of this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME may glance Earth later on Day 1 (15 Jul). Solar wind speeds are slightly elevated and are likely to remain so for much of the start of this period, either due to the potential CME influence on Day 1, or under weak fast wind influence from a couple of small coronal holes. Wind speeds are more likely to be mostly background later in the period.
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be Quiet to Active at first, with a chance of G1/Minor Storms later on Day 1 with any CME arrival. Any activity from CME influence may linger into the start of Day 2 (16 Jul) before easing. Activity thereafter is most likely to be Quiet to Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at background levels.
Issued at: 12:20 (GMT) on Wed 15 Jul 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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