Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Due to faster solar winds and a chance of a glancing coronal mass ejection, some enhancement of the auroral oval is possible during the 09 and 10 of May. This gives a slight chance of visible aurora across parts of Scotland and at similar latitudes, provided skies are clear. Later 10 May onwards, auroral activity is expected to return to background levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Due to faster solar winds and a chance of a glancing coronal mass ejection, some enhancement of the auroral oval is possible during the 09 and 10 of May UTC. Later 10 May onwards, auroral activity is expected to return to background levels.
Issued at: 15:26 (GMT) on Sat 9 May 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate solar flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has returned to Low. There are currently five sunspot regions on the visible disc. AR4432, a bipolar region located in the northwest, continues to show slight areal growth and consolidation. The new region in the northeast is suspected to be the leader of a larger returning active region which has been the source of a number of larger coronal mass ejections in previous days. Classification of this regions likely to change. Remaining regions are smaller, stable and magnetically simple.
No Earth directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slowly declining fast wind stream. Solar wind speeds were initially Elevated, around 550-580 km/s, but saw a gradual decline through the period to current levels around 500km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Moderate to start, before easing back to Weak by 08/1500 UTC. The important north-south component, Bz, was Weak and variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy proton flux was at Background, with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to remain generally Low, but with a chance of isolated Moderate solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A faint coronal mass ejection (CME) from 06 May has a chance of a glancing blow 09 or more likely 10 May. Otherwise the current fast wind enhancement peaked at Strong levels. Barring any any glancing CME impacts, solar wind speeds are now expected to slowly decline back to Slightly-Elevated by day 2 (10 May), then to Background by day 4 (12 May).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3) through the period, though the is a Slight Chance of Active to G1/Minor storm (Kp 4-5) intervals, due to any possible CME glancing blow on days 1 and 2 (09-10 May).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.
Issued at: 12:21 (GMT) on Sat 9 May 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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