Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Some enhancement of the auroral oval is possible on the UTC evening of Thursday 27 Nov due to coronal hole fast winds. Aurora sightings may be possible across the north of Scotland and similar longitudes at times. Following this, the aurora is expected to return to background levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Some enhancement of the auroral oval is possible on the UTC evening of Thursday 27 Nov due to fast winds from coronal hole fast winds. Aurora sightings may be possible across south of New Zealand South Island and similar longitudes at times. Following this, the aurora is expected to return to background levels.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of G1/Kp5 geomagnetic activity on Day 1 (27 Nov). Chance of Moderate class flares on all days.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with isolated Common-class flares. There are seven sunspot regions on the visible disc, however, most are small and stable. The largest and most magnetically complex lies near the south-centre disc. This region, however, was seen to decay during the period, with some simplification of its magnetic configuration.
Despite occasional far-sided Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) activity, no significant Earth-directed ejecta was observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters showed influence from fast coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were Strong, peaking around 780km/s. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component was Weak and highly variable in direction, although slightly favoured a negative (southward direction). Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low solar activity is forecast to continue Days 1-2 (27-28 Nov), but with a chance of isolated Moderate flares. Flare probabilities are gradually increased through Days 3-4 (29-30 Nov) to account for the anticipated return of a region which was highly active on its last rotation, with a chance of isolated Moderate class flares and a slight chance of Strong flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are currently no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections forecast. Solar winds remain at Strong levels associated with coronal hole fast winds. Solar winds are expected to ease through Days 1-3 (27-29 Nov) back to Slightly Elevated levels, perhaps reaching background levels on Day 4 (30 Nov).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) on Days 1 and 2 (27 and 28 Nov) with a diminishing chance of isolated G1/Kp5 intervals. By Day 3 (29 Nov) activity should ease to Quiet to Unsettled levels, with a chance of peak Active/Kp4 intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is at, or near normal background levels and expected to remain at similar levels during the four-day period.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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