Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Earth is currently seeing fast solar winds. However, any enhancement to the aurora and its associated visibility is likely to remain limited to high geomagnetic latitudes, and only giving a slight chance of limited glimpses into the far north of Scotland. Activity should recede as the period evolves.
Southern Hemisphere
Earth is currently seeing fast solar winds. However, any enhancement to the aurora and its associated visibility is likely to remain limited to high geomagnetic latitudes. Given the reduced hours of darkness at this time of year, any potential viewings will remain unlikely. Activity should recede as the period evolves.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Falling slight chance of Minor geomagnetic storm (G1). Chance of Minor Radio blackouts.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with only minor Common class flares observed. There are up to nine regions on the current disc. The largest and most complex regions on the disc are in the Southwest and Northeast. The region in the southwest has become increasingly magnetically complex, with evidence of possible instability. The region in the northeast, appears largely open with a simple magnetic structure. All remaining spots are smaller and generally simple, with only minor changes observed.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed gradually waning influence from a coronal hole fast wind. The solar wind speed was Strong throughout, on a declining trend, while the interplanetary magnetic field was Weak. The net result of the above solar wind measures was Unsettled (Kp3) throughout.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: There is a daily chance of isolated Moderate-class flares that may rise slightly from Friday 26 December, as a result of the progressive return of previously large active regions over the eastern solar horizon.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast. Coronal hole fast winds are expected to now slowly decline from Strong levels, perhaps becoming Slightly Elevated. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled at first, with a waning Chance of Active intervals and a similar waning Slight Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms. A decline to more reliably Quiet conditions should follow into the UTC weekend.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a gradually rising slight chance of S1 solar radiation storms as the front sided sunspot regions move into a more favourable position to connect with Earth - should they flare appropriately.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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