Space Weather Forecast Headline: Likelihood of Moderate-Strong geomagnetic activity Days 1-2 (04-05 June). Likelihood of further Moderate-class flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is Low over the past 24 hours. The largest event was a Common-class flare from AR4459 at 03/2343 UTC.

There are eight sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. In the northwest disc there remains a complex active region, with three Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed following flares from this region. An active region in the centre disc is stable with the potential to develop some mixed polarity on its intermediary spot. In the northwest and the southeast are two regions which are growing. Meanwhile in the far east, are two regions, one to the south and another to the north which are relatively simple and stable as well as the remaining two regions in the far southwest.

A Moderate class flare was observed at 03/0136 UTC with a faint but fast halo CME which has been analysed as Earth-directed, with an arrival expected during the evening (UTC) of Day 1 (04 June), although with some uncertainty. A second CME was observed following another Moderate-class flare at 03/0700 UTC and expected to give a glancing blow to Earth. A final CME associated with a Strong-class at 03/1136 UTC also from the same region is expected to combine with the second CME. These last two CMEs may give a glancing blow to Earth during late evening of Day 2 (05 Jun).

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds mainly Slightly Elevated, and currently around 430km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak to Moderate. The north-south component was generally Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels were at Background.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be Moderate to High with a continued likelihood of further flares of Moderate intensity and activity levels could be High, driven either by a higher frequency of Moderate flaring or by the occurrence of isolated Strong-class events.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Earth is probably under the influence of a Coronal Hole's fast wind. In addition, three potentially Earth-directed CMEs are present in the forecast, both associated with the same active region. The first CME is expected to arrive during the evening (UTC) of Day 1 (04 June) and is likely to be the primary driver of enhanced geomagnetic activity. The second and third CMEs are currently expected to deliver only a glancing blow later on Day 2 (05 June) to Earth, although its impact remains uncertain.

As a result, geomagnetic activity is expected to increase sharply on Day 1 (04 June), with G1–G2 (Minor to Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions likely and a chance of isolated G3 (Strong) intervals.

Activity may begin to ease on Day 2 (05 June); however, confidence in this trend remains low due to the possible influence of the second and third CMEs, potentially arriving later in the day.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar Radiation counts are at Background and expected to remain so through the period.