Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A fast solar wind is expected to reach Earth during 30 April UTC. Aurora sightings may be possible on Thursday night where skies are clear from northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes. Chances diminish in the following days with no significantly enhanced auroral activity expected.
Southern Hemisphere
A fast solar wind is expected to reach Earth during 30 April UTC. Aurora sightings are likely to be restricted to high latitudes, with just a very small chance of visibility from the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes. Chances diminish in the following days with no significantly enhanced auroral activity expected.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated M-class flares. G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms likely on Day 1 (30 Apr).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with Common-class flares observed. There are currently nine sunspot regions on the visible disc, with a new region developing in the northwest. A sunspot region in the northeast remains the largest spot, although some of the trailing spots of this region are fading. The sunspot region in the north, approaching the western limb, seems to be relatively complex, as is another larger region in the northwest. A small region in the southeast seems to have re-emerged in the last few hours. The other regions are small and magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were identified in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind observed at L1 by ACE shows a steady increase which suggests that we are currently under the influence of the Coronal hole, with wind speeds around 350-380 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was generally weak but increased to generally Moderate from around 30/0820 UTC. The north-south component, Bz, varied weakly between positive and negative, but from 30/1000 UTC seems have become mostly negative. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2) throughout.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares, mainly from two sunspot regions in the northern part of the disc. There is now a very slight chance of Strong flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds speeds are slowly rising, suggesting that the next fast wind enhancement from the Coronal Hole has started. Wind speeds are expected to rise during Day 1 (30 Apr) to Slightly Elevated to Elevated, probably around 500-600km/s. They may be slow to ease.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to become Unsettled to G1/Minor Storm during Day 1, with a slight chance of isolated G2/Moderate Storm intervals. This is likely to ease during Day 2 (01 May), with activity expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) through Days 3-4 (02-03 May).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is currently at background levels and likely to remain so, although there is a slight chance of exceeding the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold should there be any larger flares.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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