Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at background conditions at first. However, coronal hole fast winds may bring a minor enhancement on Sunday night into Monday which gives a chance of aurora sightings in northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at background conditions at first. However, coronal hole fast winds may bring a minor enhancement on Sunday into Monday UTC which could give some high latitude auroral visibility where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of isolated Moderate flares. Chance of G1/Minor Storms later in the period.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate with a flare at 13/0858 UTC from a small region in the northwest. There are now seven sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The large and complex region which has been on the disc for two weeks is now well onto the far side of the disc, and it is considered unlikely that further flaring will be seen from it. The region which gave the moderate flare is a small and straightforward region. Other regions are all relatively small and magnetically simple.
The Moderate flare appears to have produced a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) which is currently under analysis.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed some weak glancing CME influence. Wind speed was mostly slow at first, averaging around 380 km/s, but became slightly elevated near 430 km/s after 13/0845 UTC. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak to moderate. The north-south component varied moderately. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to remain mostly Low, but there is a slight chance of further isolated low level Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs expected at present, although a recent CME is currently under analysis. Wind speeds are currently slightly elevated under very weak CME influence. No further enhancements are expected until probably Day 3 (15 Feb), when a coronal hole fast wind reaches Earth. Wind speeds of 500-600 km/s are likely. There is some uncertainty around the onset time, perhaps of 24 hours or so.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled, with a slight chance of Active intervals on Day 1 (13 Feb) under weak CME influence. The fast wind could bring Unsettled to Active conditions with a chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals, although this forecast could be subject to change once the CME from this morning has been analysed.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is likely to remain at background levels, but with a diminishing slight chance of enhancement, should there be any notable flares from the large and complex sunspot region currently beyond the northwest limb.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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