Space Weather Forecast Headline: Rising chance of Moderate-class X-ray flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity has been Very Low over the past 24 hours.

There are currently up to six regions visible on the solar disc, with the majority located in the eastern hemisphere. The primary focus remains AR4473, which was responsible the two previous M-class flares. The region continues to exhibit an unstable east–west magnetic orientation but is gradually weakening and lost its delta spot, with some peripheral spots fading. AR4472 and the unnumbered region in the northeastern quadrant have shown some recent development. The remaining spots are simple and stable. There are two additional complex regions due to pass over the limb with the first due early Day 1 (23 Jun) and the second from early Day 2 (24 Jun). These are visible in Solar Orbiter PHI observations of the far side. 

No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in available imagery. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind suggested an ongoing slow regime. Solar wind speeds remained steady at around 340–380 km/s. The number of particles in the solar wind and their associated magnetic field were both within their typical range. The net result of the above solar wind measures was for provisionally Quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic activity throughout.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: There is a rising Chance of further M-class activity, with X-class a similarly rising to a Slight Chance, associated with the active region in the south east and active regions from over the limb passing onto the visible disc.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The sole Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) currently in the forecast is a possible glancing blow from the 19 June southeastern disc CME, which was due to arrive later on 22 June, with effects potentially extending into early Day 1 (23 Jun). The next fast wind may occur later on Day 2 (24 Jun) from a coronal hole, although this is low confidence due to its southern location. The next coronal hole fast wind is due later on Day 4 (26 Jun) and is located in a geoeffective position and its better places to deliver enhanced solar wind conditions.

Despite the above, geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mainly Quiet, with a possible spell of Active conditions if a glancing CME influence and/or a fast solar wind enhancement occur.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected.