Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Due to the onset of coronal hole fast winds expected through the 7th May, some enhancement of the auroral oval is possible during the UTC evening of 7 May. This may allow visible aurora across parts of Scotland and at similar latitudes, provided skies are clear. From 8 May onwards, auroral activity is expected to return to background levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Due to the onset of coronal hole fast winds expected through the 7th May, some enhancement of the auroral oval is possible. This may allow visible aurora across parts of New Zealand's south island, Tasmania and similar latitudes, provided skies are clear. From 8 May onwards, auroral activity is expected to return to background levels.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Storms, most likely on Day 1 (07 May) due to coronal hole fast winds.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity is currently Low, with only minor common class flares observed. There are currently six sunspots on the Earth facing disc, with the largest expected to rotate over the disc in the coming hours. The remaining spots are smaller, magnetically simple, and appear stable or in slight decline.
Two weak CMEs (Coronal mass ejections) likely occurred during the second half of 06 May. One may have an Earth directed component, but currently relevant coronagraph imagery is awaited
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were largely background. Solar wind speeds were initially Slightly Elevated, then showed a rapid decline to current Background levels around 360km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field started Moderate, then fell to Weak from 06/0300UTC. The north-south component was entirely positive and Weak to Moderate. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The high energy proton flux was at Background, with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Two weak CMEs (Coronal mass ejections) likely occurred during the second half of 06 May. One may have an Earth directed component, but currently relevant coronagraph imagery is awaited
Solar winds are expected to increase through Day 1 (07 May) due to coronal hole fast winds, perhaps reaching elevated levels. Speeds are then expected to decline from Day 2 (08 May) and return to background levels by around Day 4 (10 May).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) until the onset of fast wind enhancement expected on Day 1 (07 May), bringing a chance of Active to G1/Minor storm (Kp4-5) intervals. From Day 2 (08 May) activity is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) levels, assuming there are no impacts from the weak aforementioned CMEs.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected through the period.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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