Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There are three Coronal Mass Ejections which have the potential to arrive at Earth on the 09, 10 and 11 October UTC. There is significant uncertainty in the arrival times, however. Aurora may be visible at times over the next few nights over Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes, with a chance of some visibility from Northern Ireland and Northern England.
Southern Hemisphere
There are three Coronal Mass Ejections which have the potential to arrive at Earth on the 09, 10 and 11 October UTC. There is significant uncertainty in the arrival times, however. Aurora may be visible at times over the next few nights from southern New Zealand, Tasmania and similar magnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 13:57 (GMT) on Fri 9 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance G1-G2/Minor-Moderate with a slight chance G3/Strong geomagnetic storms Days 1, 2 and 3 (09-11 Oct). M-flares likely.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, with a flare peaking at 08/1548 UTC from a complex region in the top right quadrant of the disc. Whilst the trailing portion of this region has faded a little, the leading spots have increased in number, strength and penumbral area with significant magnetic complexity. Another region lies close to this one, though it is smaller, with a simple magnetic structure at present. Three other regions are on the disc, which are small and simple at the present time.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with the above flare has been analysed, which may give a possible glancing blow at Earth on Day 3 (11 Oct). This was followed by a further eruption near south-centre disc, but currently no CME has been observed in imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed background conditions. The wind speed was slow, varying between 330-380 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak to moderate with the north-south component mostly southward directed (negative) but varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation has been at mostly background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with further Moderate-class flares likely and a slight chance of Strong flares, mainly from the complex region in the northwest.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Three CMEs have the potential to reach Earth in the coming days, with arrivals likely on Days 1, 2 and 3 (09-11 Oct). There is significant uncertainty in the speed of some of these features however, giving low confidence in arrival times. Solar wind speeds are currently at background levels. Some minor coronal hole fast wind influence is possible during this period, but is unlikely to be significant.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet until the 06 Oct CME arrives on Day 1 (09 Oct). Activity then becoming Active to G1/Minor storm (Kp4-5), with a slight chance of G2/Moderate storm (Kp6). This easing into early Day 2, then the glancing blow of the 07 Oct CME brings a chance of G1/Minor storms with a slight chance of G2/Moderate storms. Activity then easing again into early Day 3 (11 Oct), before the 08 Oct CME likely brings Active to G1/Minor storm, with a chance of G2/Moderate storm and a very slight chance of G3/Strong storm intervals again. Activity likely easing into Day 4 (12 Oct). Note, however, the significant uncertainty in the timing of these features.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight chance of S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storms throughout the period.
Issued at: 12:09 (GMT) on Fri 9 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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