Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storming throughout. R1/Radio Blackouts Likely throughout. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, peaking 09/1409 UTC from a region beyond the northwest limb. There are now six sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest and most complex is in the northwest. It still has significant magnetic complexity as it has mixed polarity within a number of leading and intermediate spots. The other notable spot is near the southeast limb, and is exhibiting a large bipolar structure with clearly defined umbra and penumbra around the leading and trailing portions. This region may be larger and perhaps more complex than currently indicated. The other four regions are small and simple at present.

 No further Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds speeds indicated mostly background conditions increasing to Slightly-Elevated following a possible weak transient enhancement, starting around 10/0200 UTC. The wind speed was Slow, starting 380 km/s, though began to rise after 10/0200 UTC, peaking at 425 km/s. Density was  Above Average until 09/1600 UTC, peaking 17ppcc at 09/1211 UTC, then eased to Average. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was mostly Weak, but became Moderate following the transient arrival, peaking at 11nT. The north-south component, Bz, was generally Weak and southward directed (negative). Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation has been at mostly background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with further Moderate-class flares likely and a slight chance of Strong flares, mainly from the complex region in the northwest, but perhaps the newly numbered region near the southeast limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Two coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast period, the first giving a possible glancing blow during the latter half of Day 1 (10 Oct), though it's possible this CME arrived early corresponding with the transient feature observed around 10/0200UTC. The Second giving a possible glancing blow later Day 2 (11 Oct), though confidence is low for timing of both features.

Solar wind speeds are currently at Slightly-Elevated levels. Speeds likely easing to Background at times. Away from coronal mass ejection influence. The next significant coronal hole, in the east may arrive late on Day 3 (12 Oct), but more likely Day 4 (13 Oct), with speeds reaching Elevated, or perhaps Strong.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3) through the period. There is a daily Likelihood of Active (Kp4) periods, a Chance of G1/Minor storming (Kp5), and a Slight Chance of G2/Moderate storming (Kp6) due to glancing coronal mass ejection influences Day 1 and Day 2 (10-11 Oct), then coronal hole fast winds Day 3 and Day 4 (12-13 Oct).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight chance of S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storms throughout the period.