Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds are bringing a slight enhancement to the aurora, with sightings possible in northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear. This is likely to gradually decline in the coming days.
Southern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds are bringing a slight enhancement to the aurora, with a slight chance of sightings from the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear. This is likely to gradually decline in the coming days. However, short hours of darkness at this time of year will limit viewings.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate solar flares. Chance of Minor geomagnetic Storms to end the period (17 Jan) with expected fast solar wind onset.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low. There are currently three sunspot regions on the visible disc.
There have been no significant Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the last 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of ongoing fast wind influence. Wind speeds have been elevated, gradually declining from 600km/s towards 500km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was weak. The important north-south component, Bz, varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be mostly Low, but with an increasing chance of isolated M-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth directed CMEs are currently expected. Solar wind speeds are likely to remain slightly-elevated to elevated during Day 1 (14 Jan). A gradual and potentially erratic decline in solar wind speeds towards background levels expected through Days 2-3 (15-16 Jan). Winds expected to see an increase to strong levels into Day 4 (17 Jan), with the expected onset of a faster solar wind steam.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be generally Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 2-3) on Day 1, with a chance of Active (Kp 4), and a slight chance of isolated G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5 ) intervals. During Days 2-3 conditions likely easing to become mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3). Into Day 4 activity expected to increase to become Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4), with a chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5 ) intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is likely to be at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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