Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No significant space weather activity is expected with aurora sightings unlikely until the night of Monday 17th August. Following the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection, earlier in the day on Monday 17th Aug, there is a chance of visible aurora Monday night from across northern Scotland and potentially from across southern Scotland and Northern Ireland where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Auroral displays are likely for the South Island of New Zealand, and perhaps Tasmania and similar geomagnetic latitudes, through the southern hemisphere night of Monday 17th August where skies are clear.
Issued at: 12:49 (GMT) on Sat 15 Aug 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor/Moderate geomagnetic storms Likely Monday 17 August.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with several Common class flares, peaking at 14/2155UTC. There are currently eight sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The largest region is near centre disk, though has become magnetically simple recently. The only other notable region resides in the northwest quadrant, it is a small yet complex region, with many small mixed polarity spots clustered together. The remaining regions are generally simple.
No further Earth-directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds remained at Background levels. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component was Weak and variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-2).
The net result of the above solar wind measures was for Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity will most likely remain Low, however there is a daily Slight Chance of Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There is one Earth directed coronal mass ejection in the forecast, from the 14th. The timing of the coronal mass ejection arrival has uncertainties linked to the potential arrival of a solar wind enhancement from a coronal hole feature in the northwest. This solar wind enhancement is expected to connect to Earth through Day 1 (15th Aug) but there is an increasing probability that the connection will not occur. Without being embedded within a solar wind enhancement the coronal mass ejection arrival will be later than currently expected. Late day 4 (18th Aug) a new solar wind enhancement may arrive, from a coronal hole currently in the southeast. However, this feature may be too far south to connect to Earth.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3) until Day 3 (17th), perhaps increasing to Active (Kp4) if fast winds arrive, with a Chance of isolated G1/Minor Geomagnetic storm (Kp5) intervals. G1/Minor (Kp5) intervals are Likely Day 3, with a Chance of G2/Moderate geomagnetic storming (Kp6). Day 4 (18th Aug) conditions are expected to decrease Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) with a chance of G1/Minor storm (Kp5) intervals should further fast winds arrive.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels have been background, with no solar radiation storms expected.
Issued at: 12:12 (GMT) on Sat 15 Aug 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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