Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate-class flares likely. Chance of Minor Storms days 1-2 (22-23 Jul).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Moderate with one Moderate class flare, from the most notable of the four regions on the Earth-facing disc. This is located in the centre disc having rapidly developed through the last 48 hours. The regions continues to see some slight growth, along with a number of small mixed polarity spots within its intermediate region. The other three spots remain smaller and simpler, with no significant growth.  

No Earth-directed CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) were observed.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have shown the slow onset of the fast winds of CH79/-. Solar wind speeds increased from Background to be Slightly Elevated, peaking at 484 km/s at 21/36 UTC. The strength of the magnetic field was initially Weak to Moderate, but increased from 21/0600 UTC to be Moderate to Strong and peaked at 17nT at 21/1018 UTC. The north-south component fluctuated, starting and ending the day at Weak levels, temporarily increasing to become Moderate in the morning,. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled but became Active 21/0900-1500 UTC.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no Solar Radiation storms observed. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is likely to continue, with further Moderate-class flares likely and a slight chance of Strong-class flares, mainly from AR4493 near the centre disc.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. The onset of fast winds from a coronal hole feature has already occurred, bringing Slightly Elevated winds. However, a further enhancement is likely, with solar winds not expected to peak until later day 1 or into day 2 (22-23 Jul), reaching Strong levels 500-600km/s. Through day 4 (25 Jul)  winds are expected to gradually decline to become Elevated. Initial Quiet to Unsettled activity is expected to increase to become Unsettled to Active levels through days 1-2 (22-23 Jul), with a chance of an isolated Minor Storm, mainly day 1. Through days 2 and 3 (24-25 Jul) activity is expected to decline to become Quiet with Unsettled interval.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to be Background with no Solar Radiation storms occurring. However, any significant eruptions from the central disc sunspot could increase the observed count rates.