Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at Background levels for much of this period, with no significant enhancements forecast.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at Background levels for much of this period, with no significant enhancements forecast.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Ongoing Chance of isolated Moderate solar flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with only Common class solar flares observed, the largest of which was a sunspot region now rounding the northwest limb. There are ten regions on the Earth-facing disc, with the main growth observed in the three moderately sized regions in the southwest, nearing the south-centre and in the southwest. These have seen small increases in area, but remain simple bipolar spots with little overall complexification. A further moderately sized region in the northwest, has seen its trailer spots decline, while a further collection of regions approaching the northwest limb are becoming harder to assess but also remain relatively simple.
No significant Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds show a declining fast solar wind with generally Slightly Elevated speeds, between 388-495km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak, with the important north-south component also Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles in orbit (high energy protons) persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Generally Low activity is expected with a chance of isolated Moderate solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: One or more slow and low confidence CMEs from the 30 Apr may glance the Earth on later on day 2 or into day 3 (04-05 May). Current slightly elevated solar winds are expected to gradually ease, and remain at generally Background levels into the period baring any, likely minor, CME influence. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be generally Quiet with a chance of Unsettled to Active intervals, and a slight chance of G1/Minor geomagnetic storm intervals with any CME influence day 2-3 (04-05 May).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles in orbit (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no Solar Radiation storms forecast.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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