Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see an enhancement late on Saturday or more likely on Sunday (UTC) due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some brief glimpses from the north of Scotland, and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see an enhancement late on Saturday or more likely on Sunday (UTC) due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some glimpses from south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated M-class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with seven sunspot regions currently on the Earth-facing disc. Only small Common class flares have been observed, with the largest from the small region in the southwest. This was one of two regions that showed slight growth with the development of a small trailer spot. The other was in the northeast, with increased area of its trailer, and the growth of a number of small intermediate spots. The other region remained stable, or in decay.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs )were visible in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The arrival of a CME was observed at 25/0553 UTC, likely from the 22 Mar eruption. Solar wind speeds, as observed by ACE at L1 were Elevated at 500-550km/s, but rose from 25/0553 UTC to be Elevated, briefly Strong, at 550-620km/s, with the CME arrival. These speeds then eased erratically after 25/1200 UTC to be Slightly Elevated at around 450km/s by the end of the period. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was initially Weak but rose with the CME passage to give a period of Moderate 25/0630-25/1040 UTC, before easing back to be Weak. The north-south component was initially variable and very briefly reached a Moderate southward peak at 25/0714 UTC. However this quickly became predominately northward with the CME passage. Geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3), but with one G1 Minor Storm interval observed 25/0600-0900 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is likely to continue Low, with a chance of an isolated Moderate flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Solar winds are expected to gradually ease towards Background, before the next coronal hole sourced fast wind enhancement. This is most likely late on day 3 or day 4 (28-29 Mar) with Slightly Elevated to Elevated solar winds (450-550 km/s) expected. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled with a decreasing chance of Active intervals. The next fast wind enhancement is expected to give a spell of Unsettled to Active with only a slight chance of G1 Minor Storms.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at Background with no solar radiation storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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