Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be near background until the next anticipated enhancement from fast solar winds, probably arriving during Monday, but with some uncertainty on timing. The aurora may then become visible at times across at least northern parts of Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be near background until the next anticipated enhancement from fast solar winds, probably arriving during Monday, but with some uncertainty on timing.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor Storms likely by Days 2 or 3 (21-22 Apr). Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity reached Moderate levels due to an isolated long duration flare from beyond the southeast limb which peaked at 18/2350 UTC. Otherwise, activity has been Low with just occasional low level Common-class flares.
There are currently six numbered and one un-numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc. Two of these are moderately large bipolar regions located in the eastern hemisphere, both with some magnetic complexity, although only slow changes in evolution have been observed in recent imagery. Remaining active regions are relatively small and less complex, with only small changes observed.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind was mainly in the range 420-370km/s, with an overall slow, erratic downward trend. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was at mostly weak levels, but has drifted higher over the last few hours to reach moderate levels. The north-south component was weak to moderately variable, but was often negative (southward). Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4) levels.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels with no solar radiation storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be generally Low, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares, most likely from the two largest sunspots in the east of the visible disc, and also from a potential unseen region beyond the southeast limb.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth directed CMEs are currently featured in the forecast.
The next main enhancement is anticipated to be fast solar winds from the large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. The most likely arrival time is assessed as during Day 2 (21 Apr), though confidence in this timing is low, with a chance of an earlier onset resulting in increased geomagnetic activity which might occur late on Day 1 (20 Apr).
Geomagnetic activity starting mainly Quiet to Unsettled with probably little change until Day 2, when the fast solar wind from the southern coronal hole is likely to give G1/Minor Storm intervals with a chance of G2/Moderate Storm intervals. However, a chance of an enhancement is also given for later on Day 1 (20 Apr) in the event of an earlier arrival of the above feature.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is likely to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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