Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The anticipated coronal mass ejection appears to have missed Earth, although some very weak influence cannot be ruled out on Wednesday (UTC), which could bring some slightly enhanced aurora to some northernmost geomagnetic latitudes. The main potential for observable aurora from northern Scotland or similar geomagnetic latitudes will be from the onset of fast solar winds. This could occur from late Wednesday but is most likely on Thursday and overnight into Friday.
Southern Hemisphere
The anticipated Coronal Mass Ejection appears to have largely missed Earth, although very weak influence cannot be ruled out on Wednesday (UTC), which could bring some slightly enhanced aurora to southernmost latitudes. The main potential for observable aurora from southern New Zealand, Tasmania or similar geomagnetic latitudes will be from the onset of fast solar winds. This could occur from late Wednesday but is most likely on Thursday and overnight into Friday.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Coronal Mass Ejection arrival expected, with G1-G2/Minor-Moderate storms, slight chance of G3/Strong intervals Day 1 (01 Apr). Ongoing fast wind influence and G1-G2 storms possible thereafter. Chance of Moderate-class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with only small Common-class flares observed. There are ten active regions currently on the Earth-facing disc, however seven of these are relatively inactive. The main spot of interest is in the southeast, which was the source of the Strong flare on 30 Mar. Despite its apparently simple appearance, this region remains of interest due to the structure above the solar surface. Another region in the northeast continues to grow, but remains a small and simple bipolar group. There was also growth in small spots in a region near north centre disc.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed within this period, with the previous Strong (X-class) flare associated CME still enroute.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds are Slightly Elevated at around 400-450km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength eased from Moderate at first, to be mainly Weak. The north-south component was predominantly Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at background levels with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is most likely to be Low, but with a chance of isolated Moderate flares, and a slight chance of further X-flares from the sunspot in the southeast.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The CME from the Strong flare on 30 Mar is likely to arrive during the early part of Day 1 (01 Apr) with a glancing impact most likely. A coronal hole fast wind onset is expected to follow, however the timing of this is uncertain, most likely Days 1-2 (01-02 Apr). Geomagnetic activity is likely to become Active to G2/Moderate storm with any CME arrival, with a slight chance of G3/Strong storm intervals. Given the CME is not quite as fast as originally thought, there is a slightly reduced chance of G3/Strong Storm activity. Geomagnetic activity may briefly wane as the CME influence eases, before picking up again following the fast wind connection, with a chance of further G1-G2/Minor to Moderate Storm intervals Day 2 (02 Apr), easing through Day 3 (03 Apr). However, any interim reduction in activity is low confidence.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) is likely to remain at background levels, but with a slight chance of reaching above the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold, should there be any larger flares from the sunspot in the southeast.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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