Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Activity is likely to be mostly at background levels until the next weak enhancement, expected on the 07 May, due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some visible aurora across parts of Scotland and similar latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Activity is likely to be mostly at background levels until the next weak enhancement, expected on the 07 May UTC, due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some visible aurora across parts of New Zealand's south island and similar latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Storms, most likely on Day 2 (07 May) due to coronal hole fast winds.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity is currently Low, with only minor common class flares observed. Despite there being nine sunspots on the visible disc, all are magnetically simple with limited growth and activity in recent hours.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were largely background. Solar wind speeds were initially Slightly Elevated, then showed a rapid decline to current Background levels around 360km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field started Moderate, then fell to Weak from 06/0300UTC. The north-south component was entirely positive and Weak to Moderate. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The high energy proton flux was at Background, with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There is a low risk of a very weak, transient coronal mass ejection on Day 1 (06 May). Solar winds are expected to persist at Background speeds until the onset of coronal hole fast winds, most likely on Day 2 (7 May). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to unsettled (Kp1-3) until the onset of the next fast wind enhancement, most likely on Day 2 (07 May), bringing a chance of G1 Minor Storms.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected through the period.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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