Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate solar activity. Chance of G1 Day 3-4 (09-10 Jul). Decreasing slight chance of S1/Minor radiation storms.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low over the past 24 hours, with only Common class flares observed. 

There are now three sunspot regions visible on the solar disc, with the previous largest region now rotated around the western limb. The second largest, in the southeast, continues to develop with tenuous signs of increased magnetic complexity. The remaining active regions are currently small, magnetically simple, and of limited significance.

Although numerous coronal mass ejections have been observed over the past 24 hours, none are expected to have an Earth-directed component.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated some weak transient CME activity. Solar wind speeds were mostly slightly elevated between 400-460km/s, but became elevated for a time, peaking at 547km/s at 1745 UTC. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak. The North-South component rotated from weakly negative to weakly positive through the period. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-2). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was near background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low activity is expected to continue, with a decreasing Chance of isolated M-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast period. The only significant feature during the forecast period is a coronal hole, currently located in the central part of the solar disc. This recurrent coronal hole is expected to connect with Earth by around Day 3 (09 July), perhaps with an early connection possible late Day 2 (08 Jul), with speeds up to Elevated, perhaps Strong.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0–3) Days 1-2 (07-08 July). Activity is then expected to increase on Day 3 (09 July), becoming Unsettled to Active, with a chance of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm intervals, before activity begins to decline again through Day 4 (10 July). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained below the S1/Minor radiation storm level. There is a slight chance of proton flux exceeding the S1 (Minor) radiation storm threshold due to the presence of large regions near the western limb, the risk declining progressively.