Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate solar activity. Chance of G1 Day 1 (09 Jul), decreasing chance into Day 2 (10 Jul).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate over the past 24 hours, with two impulsive M-class flares from the large spot in the southeast.

There are five sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. The largest and most magnetically complex region is located in the southeast. It is dominated by a large leading spot, followed by two smaller trailing spots. A region in the southwest has undergone some raid development in the past 24hrs, and is one to watch. The remaining three regions are relatively small and magnetically simple.

A CME may have occurred in association with a Common class flare from a region in the southwest, but relevant imagery is still awaited to determine whether it contains an Earth-directed component. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds likely showed the onset of coronal hole fast winds from a coronal hole just west of centre disc. Solar winds were background to slightly elevated for much of the period (350–430 km/s), but rose to around 470 km/s from 09/1130UTC. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was weak to moderate. The north south component was predominantly weakly negative through the period. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp1-4). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was near background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected to continue with a chance of further Moderate class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs currently feature in the forecast period, but a CME may have occurred near centre disc on the morning of the 09th July, but relevant imagery is being awaited to conduct an analysis. The only significant feature during the forecast period is the largest coronal hole in the west of the solar disc This recurrent coronal hole is expected to connect with Earth through Day 1 (09 Jul), with speeds up to 600 km/s possible. A slow decline is then expected from Day 2 (10 Jul).

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0–3) ahead of the expected fast winds during Day 1 (09 Jul). Activity is then expected to increase, becoming Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4), with a chance of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm intervals (Kp5), before activity begins to decline again from Days 2 and 3 (10-11 Jul) onward. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) have been at background levels in the past 24 hours, with no significant enhancements expected through this period.