Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate-class X-ray flares. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with only Common-class flares observed in the past 24 hours.

There are currently eleven sunspot regions on the visible disc. Of most interest are two clusters of spot regions, one cluster is in the southeast. All these regions appear to be magnetically simple. The central region is stable, the northeast region is seeing decline in their trailing spots and the southwest region is seeing some waxing and waning of its trailing spots to the south of the main leading spot. The second cluster is located in the southwest quadrant of the disc, both showing signs of decay in their trailing spots. Two regions in the northwest, are seeing some development. The remaining spot regions are small and simple. 

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed either some weak coronal hole or CME influence. Wind speeds varied between 360 to 440km/s, with a steady declining trend towards the current background levels. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak to Moderate. The north-south component varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels have returned to background levels after a recent solar radiation storm from a far-sided eruption. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: There is an increasing chance of isolated M-class flares, initially most likely from the various spots in the southeast disc, but with an increasing component from far side region(s) currently rotating onto the east limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs currently feature in the forecast. The solar wind is currently experiencing minor disturbance, due to either weak CME influence or weak coronal hole fast wind. A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is expected to provide minor enhancements in the coming days, with wind speeds perhaps reaching up to 500 km/s, although this is low confidence. 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled, with a slight chance of Active or G1/Minor Storm interval, due to any weak fast wind influence, although this aspect of the forecast is low confidence. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels are declining after a recent brief enhancement due to a far side eruption. Radiation levels are most likely to remain at background levels for the rest of this period.