Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No significant enhancements to the auroral oval are expected initially. On Friday 30 Oct (UTC), a Coronal Mass Ejection glancing blow is possible, then an expected increase in solar winds into Saturday 31 Oct should increase auroral activity. Aurora sightings become likely across northern Scotland, with a chance of sightings across other parts of Scotland and perhaps northern England and similar latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
No significant enhancements to the auroral oval are expected initially. On Friday 30 Oct (UTC), a Coronal Mass Ejection glancing blow is possible, then an expected increase in solar winds into Saturday 31 Oct should increase auroral activity. Aurora sightings become likely across southern New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 15:20 (GMT) on Thu 29 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1 Minor Storm conditions likely Day 3 (31 Oct).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Very Low with no notable flares observed in the past 24 hours. There are three simple and very small sunspot regions on the visible disc; two in the far northeast and one in the far southwest.
A large filament (arc of the Sun's plasma) lift-off from the southwest disc starting around 29/0800 UTC is waiting for additional imagery to become available to determine if there is any Earth-directed component. Otherwise, no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds varied from Slightly Elevated to Ambient background levels, with persistently Slow speeds recently observed. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak throughout. No particular orientation was predominant with the important north-south component, Bz, with values Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles persisting at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Very Low or Low activity is expected, with no significant sunspot regions currently on the Earth-facing disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun late on 26 Oct could give a glancing impact on Day 2 (30 Oct), although the timing of any potential arrival is low confidence. This is expected to be followed by a connection to faster solar winds, with Elevated or Strong solar winds likely peaking into Days 3-4 (31 Oct-01 Nov).
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected Day 1 (29 Oct), before any potential CME glance on Day 2 (30 Oct) is followed by fast solar winds, increasing activity later that day and more likely into Day 3 (31 Oct), with Active to G1 Minor Storm conditions likely. There is a slight chance of G2 Moderate geomagnetic storms.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles expected to persist at Background.
Issued at: 13:22 (GMT) on Thu 29 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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