Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A glancing Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrived late on 10 Jan (UTC), with aurora becoming enhanced for a time, mainly across northern Scotland, and similar geomagnetic latitudes. Further aurora sightings are possible in northern Scotland and similar latitudes, Sunday night and maybe from Tuesday night but this is considered low confidence.
Southern Hemisphere
A glancing Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrived late on 10 Jan (UTC), with aurora becoming enhanced for a time. Further viewings are possible on 11 Jan (UTC) for Tasmania, New Zealand's South Island, and similar geomagnetic latitudes and maybe from 13 Jan (UTC) though this is considered low confidence. Limited hours of darkness at this time of year may limit the visibility.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Waning CME influence on Day 1 (12 Jan). Chance of G1 Minor Storms from day 2 (13 Jan) due to coronal hole fast wind.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate, with a long duration Moderate-class flare originating from just beyond the east limb, probably associated with an ex-sunspot region, which will be a returning region onto the visible disc within the next 24 hours or so. There are currently three sunspot regions on the disc. The largest, in the south-centre disc, has seen continued fading of its intermediate spots and has lost its delta spot. A region in the southwest has declined, having lost its trailer spot. Finally, there is a stable and simple region on the northwest limb.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of continued Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), which arrived late on 10 Jan, and coronal hole fast wind influence. Solar wind speeds have been mostly at Elevated levels, peaking near 600km/s. The Magnetic Field was Strong initially, due to the aforementioned CME arrival late on 10 Jan, before a steady decline to the current Moderate levels. The all important north-south component, Bz, was mostly Moderate. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4), with a G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) intervals observed between 11/1200-2100 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is expected with only a slight chance of Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun on 08 Jan following an filament eruption near AR4334, arrived at Earth late on 10 Jan. CME influence is currently on-going, with solar winds at Elevated levels. Solar winds are likely to decline to Slightly Elevated levels on Day 1 (12 Jan), before a gradual rise back to Elevated levels from Day 2 (13 Jan) due to a further re-enhancement from the easternmost portion of a coronal hole.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled or Active (Kp 3-4) on Day 1 (12 Jan), with a Chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals, especially at first. Becoming mostly Quiet to Unsettled, with a Chance of Active intervals Day 2 (13 Jan). Further Active intervals are expected from Day 3 (13 Jan), with a Chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals, if any further fast wind occurs.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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