Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of R1/Radio Blackouts. Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic storms Day 1 (10 Jul), becoming Likely Days 2-3, with a Chance of G2/Moderate Geomagnetic storms (11-12 Jul). 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has now fallen to Very Low, with Background flares observed. There are now five sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. The largest resides near the central meridian, however it has limited magnetic complexity. The most complex spot in the southwest is showing signs of growth and has increasing magnetic complexity. The remaining regions are small and magnetically simple, with a new small and simple region emerging in the far southwest.

No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were seen in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the onset of fast winds. Wind speeds rose from Slightly Elevated to Strong. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak to Moderate on an erratic trend, but is now weak. The north-south component, Bz, varied moderately, and was mostly southward directed. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Mostly Low or Very Low activity, but with a Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A coronal mass ejection was observed leaving the Sun at 09/0713 UTC. This is Likely to give a glancing blow late Day 2 or Day 3 (11-12 Jul). No other Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed.

Solar wind speeds have become Elevated to Strong, due to expected coronal hole fast winds. Strong solar wind speeds are likely to continue on Day 1 (10 Jul), gradually easing during Day 2. However, the possible coronal mass ejection arrival later Day 2 into Day 3 could prolong Elevated wind speeds for much of this period. A further coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, may bring some slight enhancements to the solar wind around the time of any coronal mass ejection arrival, however, this is low confidence with Earth currently well to the north of the solar equator and these faster winds may pass below Earth's orbit.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4), with a chance of G1/Minor storm intervals (Kp5) on Day 1, before activity declines into Day 2. Any coronal mass ejection arrival should increase activity once again late Day 2 into Day 3 with Unsettled to G1/Minor storm conditions and a Chance of a G2/Moderate storm interval (Kp6). Geomagnetic activity then easing again into Day 4 (13 Jul).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to remain at background levels.