Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Limited enhancements to the auroral oval are expected, with any aurora sightings likely to be limited to high latitudes (north of 60N).
Southern Hemisphere
Limited enhancements to the auroral oval are expected, with any aurora sightings likely to be limited to the Antarctic continent.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Geomagnetic storms by Day 4 (25 Nov).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with occasional C-class flares observed in the past 24 hours, with the largest from the new region on the southeast limb. There are six sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, however these are generally small and simple. The new region perhaps shows the greatest potential for notable activity, but remains a small and likely simple bipolar region.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Any fast wind influence has continued to decline with only Slightly Elevated solar wind speed observed, at around 400-450 km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was at Background values. The north-south component, Bz, was Weak and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low solar activity is forecast with a slight chance of isolated Moderate flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs.
Slightly elevated solar wind speeds are likely to ease to Background as slow wind conditions dominate Days 1-2 (23-24 Nov). Onset of the fast winds from the complex coronal holes in the southeast are then likely. Timing of onset and strength is low confidence, with some enhancement possible day 3 (24 Nov) but most likely day 4 (25 Nov), peaking after this forecast period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet with Unsettled intervals Day 1 (23 Nov), with an increasing chance for Unsettled to Active spells Day 2 (24 Nov), before becoming Unsettled to Active with a chance of G1 Minor Storms on Days 3-4 (25-26 Nov).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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