Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Earth is currently experiencing an enhanced solar wind, but despite this the auroral oval is at background and is likely to remain so through the forecast period. There is only a low likelihood of slightly increased auroral activity Saturday night, leading to a small chance of visible aurora across the far north of Scotland and similar latitudes where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Earth is currently experiencing an enhanced solar wind, but despite this the auroral oval is at background levels and is likely to remain so through the forecast period. There is only a low likelihood of slightly increased auroral activity Saturday UTC night, leading to a small chance of visible aurora across high latitudes where skies are clear through the limited hours of darkness.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Strong X-ray flares. Chance of solar radiation storms.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been High, with numerous low level Moderate flares, peaking at 05/1934UTC from a smaller sunspot region located in the southwest.
There are up to nine regions on the facing side of the Sun. The aforementioned region remains by far the largest, most magnetically complex and most active, although there are some tentative signs towards a simpler magnetic classification developing as the region matures. However, some mixing of magnetic polarities is still present, indicating a Strong flare may still be produced. Other regions of interest are a moderately sized region in the southeast, which saw continued growth in its leading penumbral spot in the period, and a region in the southwest which despite its small size and simple magnetic complexity produced one of the Moderate class flares of the period.
A weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from a small filament eruption (arc of plasma) on the 03 Feb in the western hemisphere is most likely to miss Earth, however modelling suggests a possible glancing blow either late on Day 2 (07 Feb) or early on Day 3 (08 Feb). A further weak glancing blow, from a CME associated with a Moderate-flare from the sunspot region in the southwest on the 05 Feb, could give a glancing blow on Day 4 (09 Feb), although confidence is low regarding this feature.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed declining CME influence, combined with likely minor coronal hole fast wind impacts. Solar wind speeds have been mostly Elevated, between 500-600km/s, occasionally reaching Strong, peaking at 680km/s at 06/1102 UTC. The magnetic field was Moderate initially, but is now Weak. The important north-south component was also Moderate to Weak. Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet (Kp 0-2) with an Unsettled interval (Kp 3) observed at 05/1200-1500 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed, despite large x-ray flares.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Further Moderate flares are Expected, with a Chance of isolated Strong flares. Whilst the largest and complex region in the northwest remains the most likely source of significant flares, other smaller and simpler regions also have the potential to contribute to flare activity.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There is the slight chance of a weak glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) late on Day 2 or early on Day 3 (07-08 Feb), which left the Sun on 03 Feb in association with a small filament eruption in the western hemisphere. Otherwise, the current Elevated to occasionally Strong solar winds are expected to gradually wane through the period, becoming Slightly Elevated by Day 4 (09 Feb).
Overall Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) geomagnetic activity is expected, with a chance of isolated Active (Kp 4) intervals, likely late Day 2 into early Day 3 (07-08 Feb), with Slight Chance of G1/Minor Storm interval.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The risk of solar radiation storms and S-scale events rises slightly in the four days as the largest sunspot region moves ever-westward, however the magnitude of this rise has been damped slightly to account for changes in the sunspot group itself. There are no other significant contributors to this risk.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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