Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of M-class flares

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Low activity with only Common-class flares observed. There are currently six regions visible on the Earth-facing disc, with the focus of any significant activity mainly on the newly numbered sunspot region on the east limb. While the trailer of this region is difficult to assess, the classification has been estimated based on previous observations from Solar Orbiter. This will be reviewed again as this region moves into a less oblique viewing angle. The other five regions are generally much smaller and magnetically simple with little sign of any growth.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in available imagery. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak connection to the fast wind of a coronal hole, with a possible weak CME feature embedded, occurred. Solar wind speeds initially remained steady at around 350km/s, before rising erratically to become Slightly Elevated to Elevated, between 400-600km/s, rising further to reach current Strong levels, around 600-630km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Bt) was mainly Moderate. The north-south component, was variable in direction but also Moderate in strength. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp2-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue, but with a chance of rising to Moderate due to the potential for isolated Moderate-class flares from the sunspot region moving over the eastern limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Current fast wind conditions are expected to persist, before a further enhancement from the next coronal hole, either later day 1 or day 2 (25-26 Jun) with solar wind speeds likely reaching Elevated to Strong levels (550–650 km/s). Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled initially, before increasing to Unsettled to Active conditions, with a chance of isolated G1 (Minor) storm intervals with the fast wind onset. Activity then easing from day 3 (27 Jun) to be Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of isolated Active intervals.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.