Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to remain near background levels at first. There is an increasing chance of minor auroral activity from 08-09 Jan due to coronal hole fast winds, this mainly confined to high latitudes, but possibly visible from parts of northern Scotland where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to remain near background levels at first. There is an increasing chance of minor auroral activity from 08-09 Jan due to coronal hole fast winds, this mainly confined to high latitudes. Auroral sightings are unlikely however due to short hours of darkness.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor Storm intervals Likely, mainly day 1 (09 Jan). Isolated Moderate class flares Likely.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with only common class flares observed. There are currently six sunspot regions on the visible disc, although two are very small and weak and are not numbered. A region in the southeast quadrant is the largest and most interesting region on the disc, currently a large region with a complex magnetic structure. However, the largest flare of the past 24 hours came from a relatively small and magnetically simple region, near south-centre disc. This region produced the largest Common class flare of the period, which was long duration with an associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). This CME is likely to have some Earth directed component, due to its source location, but further imagery is awaited for analysis.
Another CME was observed from the same region, in associated with a Common class flare peaking at 08/0520 UTC. This has been modelled for the CME material to miss Earth.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were at background levels, ranging between 300-350km/s. The strength of the solar wind's magnetic field was mostly Moderate, but with occasional spells of decreasing to become weak. The north-south component was initially moderately southward then fluctuated between weakly northward and weakly southward. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled, with Active intervals observed at 08/0000-0300UTC and 08/0600-0900 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a likelihood of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are a number of CMEs that have been observed leaving the Sun in the last few days, all faint and mostly missing Earth. The most likely Earth directed CME is from the long duration Common class flare on the 8th Jan. Analysis and modelling will occur once sufficient imagery is available.
Earth is currently under the influence of a slightly elevated solar wind, due to the influence of two coronal hole features in the western hemisphere. There is the potential for solar winds to reach strong levels, probably peaking during day 1 (09 Jan). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled to Active at first, increasing to Active to Minor Storm intervals day 1 (09 Jan). Activity is likely to gradually wane from day 2 (10 Jan).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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