Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is likely to be visible during Wednesday night over the north of the UK and similar magnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is likely to be visible during Wednesday night over the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Issued at: 01:40 (GMT) on Tue 25 Aug 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of R1/Minor Radio Blackouts throughout. Increasing chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm Days 2-3 (26-27 Aug).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate over the past 24 hours, with a single impulsive moderate flare from the large and complex region near the centre disc at 24/1936 UTC.
There are currently four sunspot regions on the visible disc. The one near the centre disc remains the most notable due to its magnetic complexity, with two clear delta spots. The intermediate delta shows clear north-south shear and is continuing to grow. The other regions are simple or showing a more modest growth.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the last 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a slow regime. Speeds were stable and around 340-380 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was a little above normal background levels, but below the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected, with a chance of further Moderate-class flares, most likely from the large complex region near the centre disc. There remains a slight chance of Strong flares from this region.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth directed CMEs are currently expected. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain slow on Day 1 (25 Aug), before the arrival of the fast wind associated with CH89/+ and CH90/+ late on Day 2 (26 Aug), or more likely on Day 3 (27 Aug). Wind speeds are then expected to increase to around 500–600 km/s.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain largely Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3). However, activity is likely to become Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) later Day 2 into Day 3, with an increasing chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals (Kp5) as the anticipated fast stream arrives.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight chance of solar radiation reaching above the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold throughout the period.
Issued at: 00:09 (GMT) on Tue 25 Aug 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: