Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Aurora sightings are unlikely until later on 17 August UTC. A Coronal Mass Ejection arrival is likely during 17 August, although timings are uncertain. This is likely to lead to aurora across Scotland, with a chance of reaching Northern England and Northern Ireland, although cloud cover may restrict viewings. Aurora becoming more restricted to northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes from 18 August.
Southern Hemisphere
Aurora sightings are unlikely until later on 17 August UTC. A Coronal Mass Ejection arrival is likely during 17 August, although timings are uncertain. This is likely to lead to aurora across the south of New Zealand, Tasmania and similar magnetic latitudes where skies are clear. Aurora becoming more restricted to the far south of New Zealand from 18 August.
Issued at: 15:59 (GMT) on Sun 16 Aug 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms likely Day 2 (17 Aug), chance of G1/Minor storms Days 3-4 (18-19 Aug). Chance of Moderate class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with several low-level Common-class flares. There are now five sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The largest region is west of centre disc, and has recently grown new intermediate spots with some mixing of polarities in this area. Another region in the northwest has grown fairly rapidly in the last 24 hours, showing rudimentary penumbra with some mixed polarities. The remaining regions are generally simple and stable.
No further Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed background conditions. Wind speeds were slow, between 330-360 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak with the north-south component weakly variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity will most likely remain Low, however there is a chance of Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There is one Earth directed CME in the forecast. The timing of the CME arrival has uncertainties, given that wind speeds are significantly slower than those currently modelled. As such, the forecast arrival time has been pushed back to later on Day 2 (17 Aug). On Day 3 (18 Aug) a new fast wind may arrive, likely lasting into Day 4 (19 Aug). Whilst this feature gave wind speeds up to 700 km/s on the last rotation, it has changed since then and there is significant uncertainty in the wind speeds expected this time.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled on Day 1, increasing on Day 2 with G1/Minor intervals likely and a chance of G2/Moderate geomagnetic storms. Overall, geomagnetic activity on Days 3-4 is likely to gradually reduce, but still potentially Unsettled to Active with a chance of G1/Minor storms, including a slight chance of G2/Moderate storm intervals on Day 3.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels are likely to be at background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.
Issued at: 12:12 (GMT) on Sun 16 Aug 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: