Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate to High solar activity expected. Chance of G1 Days 1 and 4 (06 and 09 Jul). Chance of S1/Minor radiation storms throughout.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate over the past 24 hours, with multiple M-class flares. The peak being at 05/1757 UTC from a region near the west limb. There are now seven sunspot regions on the visible disc, with one region departing the west limb, but two small new regions emerging. Two regions in the west have been the largest and most active regions in recent days. However, both regions are becoming increasingly difficult to analyse as they approach the western limb, with one of these starting to rotate over the limb and moving out of view. The next sunspot potentially of note will be the new region in the east, which is currently rotating over the eastern limb and is starting to show signs of a trailing spot. The remaining regions are small and simple. 

Despite numerous Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) seen off the Sun in the past 24 hours, none are expected to have an Earth directed component. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed declining CME influences. Wind speeds were initially strong up to 600km/s, easing to slightly elevated around 450 km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak. The North-South component was mostly northward directed at first, but became weakly southwards direction from 05/0552UTC. Geomagnetic activity was at G1-G3/Minor to Strong storm levels initially, easing to become mostly Quiet. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled (Kp2-3). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was mostly at background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate to high solar activity is expected to continue, at least initially, with a likelihood of further Moderate class flares and a decreasing chance of isolated Strong class flares. Two major regions departing during this period may be offset somewhat by another active region arriving in the east. As a result, flare probabilities reduce a little, but with some uncertainty until we get a better view of this eastern region.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds have eased to current slightly elevated levels following CME (coronal mass ejection) impacts on the 03-04 July. A further CME expected on the 05th July has likely missed Earth, with only a slight chance of a weak, glancing impact early on Day 1 (06 July). Coronal hole fast winds are expected to become geoeffective on Day 4 (09 July), with speeds of 600km/s seen on last rotation. 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3), with isolated Active intervals (Kp 4) for much of this period. There is a chance of isolated intervals of G1/Minor geomagnetic storms initially on Day 1 (06 July) if we see any glancing CME influence, but more likely on Day 4 (09 July) with the expected onset of coronal hole fast winds. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained below the S1/Minor radiation storm level on 03-04 July, despite some minor enhancements. There is a chance of reaching above the S1 level during this period due to the sunspot regions near the western limb.