Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 to start and end forecast period.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is Low with isolated Common-class flares.

There are currently 4 sunspot regions on the visible disc. An area in the central east part of the disc, is the most active. This has recently increased the number of small peripheral spots within the region and shown some recent flare activity. Another area in the northeast of the disc has also increased the number of small spots within the region. All the other regions are small  and relatively simple features.

There was a possible CME signal seen from the the southern part of the disc, possibly just over the western limb around 11/1630 UTC. However, this looks to be slow moving, and considering it's position it is unlikely to reach Earth or have any significant impacts. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1, were at Background to start, before sharply rising around 11/1030 UTC to become Slightly Elevated, which is probably due to the influence of the 08 Aug Coronal Mass Ejection. They have been slowly rising ever since, currently around 430-440 km/s.  The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak to start, increasing from 11/1030 UTC to become generally Moderate. The north-south component, Bz, has been largely weak and positive, though did become largely negative for a time between 11/1230 UTC and 11/1530 UTC. The geomagnetic activity has largely been Quiet.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at Background.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is expected to remain Low, with only four relatively simple sunspot regions currently on the visible disc.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The Coronal Mass Ejection from 08 Aug seems to have arrived around 11/1030 UTC giving a modest increase in Geomagnetic Activity. This is expected to continue to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kps 1-3) with Active Intervals (Kp 4) possible during the early part of Day 1 (12 Aug). There is a small chance that we could see the influence of a small coronal hole on Day 1 (12 Aug) which could give a Slight Chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals. This should reduce to Quiet to Unsettled by day 2 (13 Aug) before a possible second fast wind from a different coronal hole, which could arrive on Day 3 or 4 (14-15 Aug), giving a Slight Chance of G1/Minor Storms intervals then too.  

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to continue at Background.