Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of further minor geomagnetic storms reducing. Chance of Strong x-ray flares. Chance of solar radiation storms.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity has been high, peaking with a Strong-class x-ray flare at 04/1213UTC from the largest and most complex region on the Sun. This region has now delivered the third largest and, with this event, the eleventh-largest x-ray flares of the current solar cycle.

There are up to nine regions on the facing side of the Sun. The aforementioned region remains by far the largest, most complex and most active, although there are some tentative signs towards a simpler magnetic classification developing as the region matures. Its central portion is becoming more open and its main leading spot is becoming more symmetric, however at does still show some mixing of magnetic polarities that may still mean it is capable of further large flares. The other main region of interest on the facing side was in the southeast, which saw strong areal growth in its leading spot in the period, nearly doubling in size.

No new Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were in evidence in available imagery. Minor disappearing 'filaments' (arcs of plasma) were tentatively identified in ground-based near-infrared imagery at 04/1330UTC and 05/0330UTC in the northeast, and at 04/1300UTC in the southeast, however no obvious CMEs resulted from any of these.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a CME arrival at 04/1421UTC (related to the Strong-class flare on 01/2357UTC), although there may also increasingly be minor 'coronal hole' fast wind influence featuring into the current UTC day.

The 24-hour period started with background solar wind conditions, giving way to eventual elevated winds after 04/1421UTC in the CME. The number of particles in the solar wind started at background, but rose to an above average peak mid-period, erratically falling back to previous levels thereafter. The associated magnetic field rose to become strong on the passing of the CME shock, with an erratic magnitude then followed by a gradual decline to finish the period within slightly elevated levels. The north-south component of the field varied, with a protracted anti-aligned spell (with Earth's field) between 05/0130 and 0530UTC - giving the peak geomagnetic activity of the period.

The net result of the above solar wind measures was a provisional peak of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 recorded by British Geological Survey (BGS) in the 03-06UTC interval, with preceding activity mainly quiet.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed, despite large x-ray flares.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: The are no significant departures or arrivals on the facing side of the Sun in the period, and the daily risk of flares is mainly tied to the evolution of the largest sunspot region. While it remains a very large and complex group, there are some signs of it maturing and becoming more open in character, reducing the daily risk of Strong-class flares to a chance. Moderate-class flares are still expected.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The current CME related to the Strong-class flare from 01 February is ongoing. This may yet show some resurgence should any of the other lobes from the initial event pass Earth, however this is now becoming less likely. Any further CME influence in the four days would arise from glances from western solar hemisphere 'filaments', but these also carry a low risk. 'Coronal hole' activity is probably already in course, and these are likely the only fast winds due in the period.

Overall, there is a falling slight chance of further Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1, mainly during the tail of the current UTC working week, with quiet conditions expected over the UTC weekend should the glancing western solar hemisphere CMEs miss - the most likely state of affairs.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The risk of solar radiation storms and S-scale events rises slightly in the four days as the largest sunspot region moves ever-westward, however the magnitude of this rise has been damped slightly to account for changes in the sunspot group itself. There are no other significant contributors to this risk.