Space Weather Forecast Headline: Rising chance of Moderate-class X-ray flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity has been Moderate over the past 24 hours, peaking at 21/1929UTC, with an earlier smaller flare at 21/0246UTC from the same region in the southeast of the Sun. Both events were associated with Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).

There are currently up to five regions visible on the solar disc, including a small unnumbered region on the western limb. The main focus remains on the eastern limb, where an impulsive Moderate flare was observed overnight. The responsible region remains magnetically complex, although the recent growth in sunspots has stopped and some smaller spots are fading. It appears separate from a more stable nearby region to the east, although the boundary between them is still unclear.

Several filaments are currently present on the Sun's central disc and will require close monitoring for any signs of lift-off, particularly as they rotate across the western hemisphere.

A complex, multi-directional CME was observed leaving the Sun in the early UTC hours of Monday. However, based on STIX quick-look data from the ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter spacecraft, it is very likely to be far-sided. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind suggested an ongoing slow regime. Solar wind speeds remained steady at around 350–380 km/s. The number of particles in the solar wind and their associated magnetic field were both within their typical range. The net result of the above solar wind measures was for provisionally quiet geomagnetic activity throughout.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed, with no obvious enhancement related to the Moderate-class x-ray activity in the east of the Sun.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: There is a slightly increasing chance of moderate activity, mainly from the recent most active grouo in the southeast and an oncoming larger region from midweek UTC. There is a rising slight chance of Strong-class x-ray flares for the same reason.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The sole CME in the forecast at present is a possible glancing blow from the 19 June southeastern CME, due to cross Earth's orbit later on 22 June, with effects perhaps extending into early 23 June (UTC).

The next fast wind may occur later on 24 June, although this is low confidence.

Despite the above, geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mainly quiet, probably peaking below Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1, should glancing CME influence and/or a fast solar wind enhancement occur.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected given the absence of suitably large and active regions in the better-connecting (with Earth) western solar hemisphere.