Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be near background levels until the arrival of a solar wind enhancement later 11 June (UTC). This is likely to slightly enhance aurora activity, with aurora potentially visible across northern parts of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, perhaps continuing through the night of 12 June. However, short hours of darkness will limit any viewings where skies are clear. A potential glancing CME may give a further chance of some enhanced aurora activity into the night of 13 June.
Southern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be near background levels until the arrival of enhanced solar winds later 11 June (UTC). This is likely to slightly enhance aurora activity, with aurora potentially visible across southern parts of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes during the early hours of the southern hemisphere Friday morning and perhaps during Friday night, where skies are clear. A potential glancing CME may give a further chance of some enhanced aurora activity into the UTC night of 13 June.
Issued at: 12:10 (GMT) on Thu 11 Jun 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor storms Likely days 1 to 3 (11 to 13 Jun). Chance of isolated Moderate class flares throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low over the past 24 hours, with occasional Common-class flares, peaking with an impulsive larger Common-class flare at 11/0828 from the most active region in the northeast. This region also produced a long duration upper Common-class flare at 11/0002UTC
There are currently five sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, most small and simple and either stable or decaying. Two regions are moderately sized, one of which in the northeast is the largest on the disc and also moderately magnetically complex. This region is also the only region which has displayed slight growth recently, with new small peripheral spots developing.
A partial halo CME was observed in coronagraph imagery following the long duration C-flare, with the bulk of the ejecta appearing to be directed behind the Earth orbit. However, a glancing component is possible, with initial modelling results indicating a potential enhancement around 13/1500UTC.
A small filament was observed disappearing around 11/0850UTC from the southwest disc, near the vicinity of ex-AR4461. Updated coronagraph imagery is awaited to determine if any CME was associated with this.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were predominantly near Background 380-400km/s, with a slight downward tendency. The strength of the solar wind's magnetic field was mostly weak, while the important north-south component fluctuated weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained at Background, with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to be Low, but with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares and a slight chance of a Strong flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A partial halo CME was observed following the long duration C-flare, with the bulk of the ejecta appearing to be directed behind the Earth orbit. However, a glancing component is possible, with initial modelling results indicating a potential enhancement on day 3 (13 Jun), around 13/1500UTC. Two other weak eruptions late on 09 Jun also have the potential to give weak and glancing impacts on day 3 (13 Jun). However, these are low confidence.
Current Background solar winds are expected to continue until the onset of the fast wind of CH63/- later on day 1 (11 Jun), with winds becoming Elevated and perhaps Strong. The winds are expected to begin to ease into day 3 (13 Jun), however may become enhanced again for a time should any glancing CME arrive.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet (Kp 1-2) at first, but expected to rise to Active to G1/Minor Storm (Kp 4-5) with the fast wind onset. The chance of G1/ Minor Storm activity persists into day 3 (13 Jun), with an additional slight chance of isolated G2-G3/Moderate-Strong Storms from any significant glancing CME impact.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to remain at Background, with no solar radiation storms occurring.
Issued at: 12:09 (GMT) on Thu 11 Jun 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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