Space Weather Forecast Headline: High solar activity likely. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrival is expected Day 2 (03 Jul), with Minor to Moderate storms expected. Further CME glances are possible by Day 4 (5 Jul).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity has been High over the last 24 hours, with the largest flare a high-level Moderate class observed at 01/2309 UTC from the largest region on the disc in the southwest, which is also magnetically complex. There are currently two other sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, one of which is reasonably large and is also magnetically complex and active. A region in the southwest has also been active, and has developed into a small but moderately complex region. 

An Moderate-class flare observed at 01/0158UTC from AR4479 has produced a large CME, with the bulk of the ejecta heading north and west. This is currently being analysed for any potential Earth-directed component. 

Several Moderate-class flares have been observed over the past 24 hours, most of these originating from the magnetically complex sunspot region in the northwest. There is the potential for at least two of these to have an Earth-directed component. An Moderate-flare at 01/1008UTC produced a CME heading north, although appears to be very slow. Another Moderate-flare observed at 01/1943UTC, also heading north. These may bring the chance of glancing blows at Earth on Day4 (05 Jul), or just beyond the forecast period. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds have mostly been at Background to Slightly Elevated levels, ranging between 340-420km/s, following the arrival of a weak CME on 30 Jun. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Bt) was Moderate to Weak. The north-south component was Moderate to Weak, but remained positive. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled (Kp3) at first, then declined to the current Quiet conditions (Kp 0-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: High activity is likely, with occasional Moderate class flares expected and a chance of an isolated Strong flare.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME is expected Day 2 (03 Jul) following the Strong flare on 30 Jun. Further CME's are likely to feature in the forecast once analysis has been undertaken of at least three CME's associated with M-Class flares from AR4479 on 01 Jul. Preliminary results suggest possible glances on Day 4 (05 Jul) or just beyond the forecast period. 

Solar winds are currently at Slightly Elevated to Background levels. The CME following the Strong flare is expected to arrive on Day 2 (03 Jul) with solar winds perhaps rising to reach Elevated, perhaps Strong levels, before gradually declining on Day 3 (04 Jul).  Further glancing CME's are likely to feature in the forecast, with solar winds potentially increasing to Strong levels at times, especially towards the end of the period. 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet (Kp 0-2) Day 1 (02 Jul). A CME associated with the Strong flare on 30 Jun is likely to arrive Day 2 (03 Jul), with geomagnetic activity likely to reach Active to G1/minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 4-5) with a chance of isolated G2 Moderate storm (Kp 6) intervals, and a slight chance of G3 Strong storm (Kp 7), if the CME is more impactful than anticipated. Activity is likely to decrease on Day 3 (4 Jul) before potential glancing CMEs arrive on Day 4 (5 Jul) with geomagnetic activity possibly increasing to reach G1-G2/Minor-Moderate storm levels. Low confidence. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to be at Background levels, but with a chance of reaching Minor-Moderate Radiation storming with any significant flares.