Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to be mostly at background levels. However, there is the potential for a glancing CME (coronal mass ejection) arriving into early UTC on 13 May and also the likely onset of coronal hole fast winds on the 15 May. These events may bring some weak enhancement to the auroral oval, perhaps allowing sightings across northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to be mostly at background levels. However, there is the potential for a glancing CME (coronal mass ejection) arriving into early UTC on 13 May and also the likely onset of coronal hole fast winds on the 15 May. These events may bring some weak enhancement to the auroral oval, perhaps allowing sightings across southern New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Issued at: 22:52 (GMT) on Tue 12 May 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate-class solar flares. Chance of G1/Minor storm intervals Days 1, 3 and 4 (13, 15 and 16 May).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity was at Low levels, with only minor Common-class flaring observed. There are currently five sunspot regions on the visible disc. A large bipolar region located in the northwest is becoming increasingly difficult to analyse as it rotates toward the western limb. A region in the northeast retains a pair of modestly sized leading spots and has shown little growth in recent hours. The remaining regions are smaller, stable and magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the past 24hrs.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow and erratic return to background conditions. Solar wind speeds varied between 320-390km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak, with the important north-south component Weak and variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy proton flux was at Background, with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to remain generally Low, but with a chance of isolated Moderate flares, and a slight chance of isolated strong flares, principally from AR4436 or AR4432.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A large, fast CME followed the 10 May Moderate flare from a region in the northeast. Modelling indicates a potential Earth-directed component with a possible arrival early UTC on 13 May. The recent coronal hole fast wind enhancement has subsided with winds now near Background levels. The next fast wind stream is anticipated to become geoeffective through Day 3 (15 May).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled on Day 1 (13 May) until the potential arrival of a glancing CME early in the day, which brings a chance of Active to G1/minor storm conditions (Kp 4–5). Activity is then expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled levels until the onset of fast solar winds from CH53/–, anticipated during Day 3 (15 May). At that point, geomagnetic activity is likely to increase again, with a chance of G1/minor storm (Kp 5) intervals developing
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.
Issued at: 00:15 (GMT) on Wed 13 May 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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