Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora oval is expected to be at or near background levels at first. The onset of the fast wind from a large coronal hole, either on Wednesday 3rd or Thursday 4th December is expected to enhance the auroral oval to lower latitudes. Following its arrival, aurora may be visible, where skies are sufficiently clear, mainly from northern Scotland, with a lower chance further south. A possible coronal mass ejection (CME) glance around a similar time may also cause increased enhancement, with aurora potentially visible further south still.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora oval is expected to be at or near background levels at first. The onset of faster solar winds, either on Wednesday 3rd or Thursday 4th December is expected to enhance the auroral oval to lower latitudes. Following its arrival, aurora may be visible, where skies are sufficiently clear, from the far south of New Zealand and perhaps also Tasmania at peak. A possible coronal mass ejection (CME) glance around a similar time may also cause increased enhancement, with aurora potentially visible further north.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate to High Solar Activity. G1 Minor Storms likely day 2-3 (03-04 Dec).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low over the past 24 hours with a peak Common-class flare from AR4294 in the southeast.
The returning remnants of ex-AR4274 from the previous rotation is located toward the northeast limb. While now smaller, this appears to have maintained some complexity, with mixed magnetic polarity. There is also a collection of large spots in the southeast disc, which are now split into three distinct regions. The first is the westernmost unipolar spot, the second is the largest central bipolar region, and this is then followed by a third easternmost bipolar region. While large, these regions currently have limited complexity, with only very small mixed polarity spots evident.
The main recent Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) of note was from the Strong flare early on 01 Dec, and a subsequent eruption of a nearby filament (arc of plasma just above the Sun's surface). This resulted in a complex eruption, with the majority of the material passing north and behind Earth, however there are some signs that the filament eruption potentially included a component deflected more towards the Earth-Sun line. Any subsequent CME is likely to glance at most, perhaps late on day 2 (03 Dec), however this is very low confidence.
A further eruption from this same filament in the northeast was also observed during the UTC evening of 01 Dec, however this appears to have been reabsorbed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Coronal hole fast winds continued to ease. Solar wind speeds declined from Elevated, around 500 km/s, to Background levels, near 390 km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was Weak. The north-south component was also Weak and variable in direction, although favouring a negative (southward) orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate or High solar activity is expected, with isolated Moderate class flares and a chance of isolated Strong (X-class) solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no clear Earth-directed CMEs, however the filament eruption after the Strong flare on 01 Dec may have an Earth-directed component that could arrive late day 2 (03 Dec). The next fast wind enhancement, from the next coronal hole, is expected on day 2-3 (03-04 Dec), and this may combine with any CME arrival.
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be Quiet with isolated Unsettled intervals on day 1 (02 Dec), increasing to Active to G1 Minor Storm with any coronal hole fast wind, and a chance of stronger activity, especially if any glancing CME arrival is also observed alongside this, however this is very low confidence.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring. However, there is an increasing chance of his rising as a response to any significant flares from the sunspot regions on the eastern disc, especially as these move towards the centre disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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