Space Weather Forecast Headline: Generally quiet Space Weather conditions initially, then Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storming on Days 3 and 4.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: 

Solar activity has been Low, peaking with a C3.7 at 20/2234 UTC from near centre disk. There are seven sunspot regions on the visible disc, three of which are yet to be numbered. The region in the north centre disk, seems to be the most active sunspot region, though some of the penumbra of the central spots look like they're starting to fade. The new region in the northeast continues to develop, with a number of spots in the leading and trailing portions, and multiple areas of penumbra.  A region in the southeast, has lost it's trailing spot and is now a unipolar region. The other un-named regions have developed recently and are small, single, unipolar spots. The other regions are currently small and simple.

There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds, as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1, were indicative of a waning connection to the fast wind of a coronal hole. Solar wind speeds started the period slightly elevated, around 400-410km/s, before declining to background values by around 20/1600 UTC. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak and fairly steady. The north-south component, Bz, started the period weakly positive, but since 20/1900 UTC it has been weakly varying between positive and negative. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at normal background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to remain Low or Very Low, with a Slight Chance of becoming Moderate.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections currently feature in the forecast period. Solar winds are expected to be largely background speeds until Day 3 (23 Sep). Thereafter, wind speeds should become 500-600km/s from the enhancement of CH96/+, which is currently anticipated to occur either later on Day 3 (23 Sep) or on Day 4 (24 Sep).

Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be mostly Quiet throughout the start of the period, with a slight chance of isolated Unsettled intervals. From later Day 3 (23 Sep) or early Day 4 (24 Sep), due to the onset of coronal hole fast winds, Active (Kp4) intervals are Likely, with a Chance of G1/Minor Storms (Kp5).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.