Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate solar flares likely. Continued chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storms with the onset of fast solar winds.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is at Moderate levels. There are currently six sunspot regions on the visible disc, with the small AR4569 fading and a new region developing in the southwest disk. The most significant and magnetically complex region on the disc remains AR4566 in the southeast, with significant magnetic complexity. Remaining regions are small and magnetically simple.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds reflected the onset of a High Speed Stream (HSS) with solar wind speed rising from a minimum of 390km/s to strong levels, peaking above 700km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was at mostly moderate levels. The important north-south component, Bz, varied moderately. Resultant Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4), with a G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) interval recorded 071800-2100UTC.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Overall Moderate solar activity is expected, with a likelihood of further moderate solar flares from sunspot region AR4566, and a slight chance of isolated strong solar flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:  With no Earth directed CMEs currently expected the geomagnetic forecast is dominated by fast solar winds associated with a large coronal hole. Solar winds have now risen to strong levels following the onset of this feature. Overall solar winds are expected to remain strong through Day 1 and into Day 2 (08-07 Nov), with speeds 600-700km/s. A slow decline is expected through Days 3-4 (10-11 Nov) but speeds remaining generally elevated.

Geomagnetic conditions expected to remain generally Unsettled to Active, with a chance of further G1/Minor Storm intervals and a slight chance of isolated G2/Moderate storm intervals during Days 1 and 2 (08-09 Nov). Activity the likely declining to become more generally Quite-Unsettled later in the guidance period with a chance of Active intervals.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is likely to remain at background levels, but there is a slight chance of exceeding the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold following any significant solar flares.