Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate Class flares throughout. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with only Common-class flares observed. There are currently four sunspot regions on the visible disc. The most notable region on the disc is in the east. This is a large and complex region, with significant magnetic complexity. The remaining regions are much smaller and magnetically simple.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of waning fast winds. Speeds were slightly elevated, between 410-460km/s, on a declining trend. Interplanetary Magnetic Field has been weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was a little above normal background levels, but below the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a chance of further Moderate-class flares, most likely from the large and complex region on the disc. There is also a slight chance of Strong flares from this region.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth directed CMEs are currently expected during the forecast period. Earth is under the waning influence of a fast wind, which will continue to gradually decline to slow speeds during Day 1 and perhaps into Day 2 (23-24 Aug). Another fast wind enhancement could arrive at Earth late on Day 4 (26 Aug), or more likely after the end of this period.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3) for much of the period, but there is a slight chance of Active to G1/Minor Storm intervals later on Day 4 if the next fast wind arrives.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight chance of solar radiation reaching above the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold throughout the period.