Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Enhancements to the auroral oval are not anticipated during the period with little chance of visible aurora at most magnetic latitudes. Also the short hours of darkness limiting any potential viewings.
Southern Hemisphere
Enhancements to the auroral oval are not anticipated during the period with little chance of visible aurora at most magnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 00:58 (GMT) on Thu 16 Jul 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storms Day 1 (16 Jul). Slight but increasing Chance of Moderate solar activity.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with the maximum flare peaking at 15/2155 UTC, from a region beyond the eastern limb. There are four sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. These are simple regions, with a region in the southwest being the largest. A flare on the 14th Jul from over the southeast limb suggests there may be a new region yet to rotate over the limb, but Solar Orbiter imagery suggests this is unlikely to be a large or complex region.
No Earth-directed CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) were observed in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds displayed the influence of fast winds from the small coronal hole in the west of the disc. Winds were mostly at slightly elevated levels throughout. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was at Weak to Moderate levels. The north-south component was also at Weak to Moderate levels. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low solar activity is expected to continue, with a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. The flare risk will probably increase through the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME may glance Earth early on Day 1 (16 Jul). Solar wind speeds are slightly elevated under weak fast wind influence from a couple of small coronal holes. Wind speeds are likely to decline to slow levels through the period.
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of Active or Minor Storms early on Day 1 given any CME arrival.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at background levels.
Issued at: 00:14 (GMT) on Thu 16 Jul 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: