Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1, peaking Friday 14 August.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity fell to very low, with no significant x-ray flares recorded (below common-class throughout).

There are currently up to six sunspot regions on the facing side of the Sun, with a new, small magnetically bipolar region developing. The complexity of the sunspot regions overall increased in the period, with three of the main bipolar regions showing growth, although this did not culminate in increased flaring in any case. Remaining regions were generally smaller, simpler and more stable.

Satellite imagery showed a faint, small Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) heading mainly south and west of the Sun-Earth line. This feature may be associated with a minor emission from the vicinity of a sunspot in the southwest. It has been analysed and is not expected to affect Earth.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were slightly elevated in the period, perhaps due fading influence from a minor fast solar wind. The solar wind speed fell from early slightly elevated highs to become background by the end of the period. The number of particles in the solar wind and their associated magnetic field were both near average, which reduced any effect from the mainly anti-aligned north-south component of the field (with Earth's field).

The net result of the above solar wind measures was for provisionally quiet geomagnetic activity throughout.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity will most likely be low, with isolated Common-class flares. One of the larger and growing sunspot regions should depart the disc to end the UTC weekend, and with no returning regions due or evidence of them in far-side satellite imagery, there is therefore a falling slight chance of Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CMEs feature in the forecast. The current solar wind regime may give way to a (stronger) fast wind before the end of the UTC working week. This is low confidence, with modelling suggesting the fast wind may alternatively pass slightly north of the plane of the Earth's orbit. There is felt to be a peak chance of G1/Minor geomagnetic storms Day 2, Friday 14 August, soon waning to increasingly Quiet activity over Day 4 (Sunday 16 August).   

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected - given the dearth of suitably complex, well-connected sunspot regions (i.e. larger regions in the west).