Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at Background levels for much of this period. Any enhancements are expected to be limited, with viewings restricted to northernmost latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at Background levels for much of this period. Any enhancements are expected to be limited, with viewings restricted to Antarctica.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate solar flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with only isolated Common-class flares. This are ten magnetically simple regions currently on the visible disc. The majority of the regions are either stable or declining, however some limited growth was observed in the intermediate spots of the region in the south-centre disc, although this was accompanied with the spots trailer fading. Some minimal growth was also observed in the new regions in the northeast quadrant.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds eased from Slightly Elevated to Background, from around 400-450km/s to just below 400km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak with the north-south component also Weak and variable in orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles in orbit (high energy protons) persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue but with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: One or more slow and low confidence CMEs from the 30 Apr may glance the Earth on later on day 1 or into day 2 (04-05 May). Otherwise solar winds are expected to persist at Background speeds until the onset of the fast winds of a small coronal hole, most likely on day 4 (07 May). Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be mainly Quiet, with isolated Unsettled spells. Spells of Unsettled to Active, with a slight chance of G1 Minor Storms, are possible from either the CME days 1-2 (04-05 May), or the fast wind onset (07 May).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles in orbit (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no Solar Radiation storms forecast.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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