Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain mostly quiet, with only limited auroral sightings anticipated. However, there remains a chance of a glancing impact from a coronal mass ejection later this evening, which could bring a slight chance of visible aurora across northern Scotland and other similarly high-latitude locations tonight, especially where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain mostly quiet, with only limited auroral sightings anticipated. However, there remains a chance of a glancing impact from a coronal mass ejection later this evening, which could bring a slight chance of visible aurora across the far south of New Zealand and other similar high-latitude locations tonight, particularly where skies remain clear.
Issued at: 12:33 (GMT) on Tue 19 May 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic storm intervals days 1 and 2 (19 and 20 May). Slight chance of isolated R1/Minor Radio Blackouts throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Low with only Common-class flares observed.
There are currently five sunspot regions on the visible disc. The region in the northwest remains the largest and most active region, dominated by a substantial positive-polarity leading spot and appearing generally stable at present. A region near north-central disc exhibited some development, however growth has stalled with the trailer spot splitting. The remaining regions across the northeast and southeast quadrants are comparatively small and are either stable or gradually decaying.
There were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) observed in the past 24hrs.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the arrival of a weak CME. Around 0630 UTC, solar wind speeds increased from approximately 540 km/s to 620 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), which had remained weak throughout, also strengthened slightly. Meanwhile, the crucial north–south component, Bz, became more variable, exhibiting larger fluctuations. Despite these changes, resulting geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet to Unsettled levels (Kp1–3) throughout the period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at or near background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low solar activity is expected to continue, though there remains a slight chance of isolated M-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds are currently strong following the recent arrival of a CME. Conditions may remain strong into Day 2 (20 May), as a second CME is expected to arrive at Earth. Thereafter, a gradual declining trend is anticipated over the following days, with solar wind speeds potentially easing to slightly elevated levels by Day 3 or Day 4 (21–22 May).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain largely at Quiet to Unsettled levels (Kp1–3). However, there is a chance of G1/Minor Storm conditions (Kp5), along with a slight chance of isolated G2/Moderate Storm intervals (Kp6) tonight (19–20 May), driven by the combined effects of the coronal hole high-speed stream and a weak glancing impact from the second CME.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.
Issued at: 11:34 (GMT) on Tue 19 May 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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