Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
An uptick in activity is underway during Wednesday 25th March due to a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) that left the Sun on 22 March and auroral sightings are likely across the north of Scotland, with a chance of sightings across central and southern parts of Scotland and similar geomagnetic longitudes. The chances of auroral displays then reduces from Thursday 26 March onward.
Southern Hemisphere
An uptick in activity is underway during Wednesday 25th March due to a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) that left the Sun on 22 March and auroral sightings are most likely across the south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic longitudes. The chances of auroral displays then reduces from Thursday 26 March onward.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor-Moderate Geomagnetic Storms Day 1 (25 Mar) due to coronal mass ejection arrival. Chance of M-class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity has been Low, peaking C7.2 at 24/1754 UTC from near the new region on the northeast limb. Seven sunspot regions are currently visible on the solar disc. The largest region resides in the northeast, with moderate size and magnetic complexity. A new region is currently rotating around the northeast limb, though only partially visible at present. The remaining regions across the disc are generally simple or exhibiting minor decay.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were visible in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have been at elevated to strong levels with a slow reduction until the arrival of the CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) around 25/0600 UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak until the CME arrived with Moderate levels reached. The north-south component mostly varied weakly, and generally favoured a negative (southward) orientation. The resultant geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4), with minor geomagnetic storm intervals after 25/0600 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to continue Low, with a Chance of an isolated Moderate flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: After the recent arrival of the CME solar winds will start at mostly elevated levels with a slow and erratic decline to slightly elevated levels until further fast winds due to a coronal hole arrival on day 4 (28 Mar).
Geomagnetic activity, Unsettled to Active, with a chance of further Minor storms (Kp5), mainly Day 1 (25 Mar), becoming mainly Quiet from Day 2 (26 Mar). On day 4 (28 Mar), there is a slight Chance of Minor storm intervals, should Earth connect to the coronal hole fast winds.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected given the relative lack of significant regions and subdued flare activity.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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