Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A CME that left the Sun on 11 June may give Earth a glancing blow in the UTC afternoon of Saturday 13 June, with up to two other weak eruptions perhaps contributing to this arrival. This comes at a time when Earth is also affected by fast solar winds, albeit probably beginning to wane by this time. Taken together, there is a chance of high geomagnetic latitude enhancements to the aurora, although viewing conditions will be impaired by the short hours of darkness in suitable locations (e.g. northern Scotland).
Southern Hemisphere
A CME that left the Sun on 11 June may give Earth a glancing blow in the UTC afternoon of Saturday 13 June, with up to two other weak eruptions perhaps contributing to this arrival. This comes at a time when Earth is also affected by fast solar winds, albeit probably beginning to wane by this time. Taken together, there is a chance of high geomagnetic latitude enhancements to the aurora, perhaps visible in the far south of New Zealand, for example.
Issued at: 12:23 (GMT) on Fri 12 Jun 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 into UTC weekend.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity has remained low over the past 24 hours, with isolated Common-class flares observed. The largest of these flares emanated from a sunspot region in the northeast at 11/0002UTC.
There are currently five sunspot regions visible on the Earth-facing side of the Sun. The largest region - in the southwest - showed new trailing spot development, although some of its more northern spots faded. The other more complex region on the Sun in the northeast, showed significant fading of all but its largest sunspot. The other three regions, all in the northwest, were all smaller, and either magnetically unipolar or else small bipolar regions in decay.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were apparent in available imagery. A CME visible heading south of the Sun-Earth line was attributable to activity on the far side, with no effect on the forecast.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind transitioned from a slow regime to a fast wind from a 'coronal hole', after approximately 11/1530UTC. The solar wind speed rose from background to become strong by the period's end. The number of particles in the solar wind showed a rising trend to peak above average ahead of the fast wind, but subsequently soon fell to its long term average into the current UTC day. The magnetic field associated with these particles was initially smooth within background, but showed an erratic rise to briefly peak at strong, later moderating back towards background. The north-south component showed a slow oscillatory character, becoming more erratic into the current UTC as the magnitude fell.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was a peak of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 conditions in the 18-21UTC interval during a period of anti-aligned magnetic field (with Earth's field) as the fast wind developed. Activity has since fallen.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to remain low during the forecast period, but with a gradually increasing chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The partial halo CME observed from the eastern solar hemisphere during the early UTC hours of 11 June may give Earth a glancing blow on day 2 (Saturday 13 June) in the middle of the UTC afternoon, with up to two other weak eruptions perhaps contributing to this arrival.
Current strong solar winds from a coronal hole fast wind are likely to represent the peak strength of this feature. Conditions are then expected to gradually ease during 13 June, although solar wind speeds could become re-enhanced should the glancing CME arrive.
Geomagnetic activity carries an ongoing Chance of reaching Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 while the fast wind remains strong, although the likelihood of this occurring is now reduced. The CME arrival should then bolster this risk on day 2, Saturday 13 June, with this representing the peak risk for the forecast period as a whole. After this, both the fast wind and CME effects should wane over the remainder of the UTC weekend and into the new UTC working week, perhaps most reliably quiet on Monday 15 June.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected, with a very gradually rising slight chance of S1 Minor solar radiation storm.
Issued at: 12:05 (GMT) on Fri 12 Jun 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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