Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Aurora is expected to be mainly at background levels Wednesday night UTC (12 Aug). There is a chance of some slight enhanced aurora at high latitude late Thursday night UTC (13 Aug) due to a connection to coronal hole fast winds, but this is considered more likely to occur through Friday, which may lead to some slight enhancement to the auroral oval Friday night UTC (14 Aug). Thereafter aurora is expected to revert to background levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Aurora is expected to be mainly at background levels Wednesday night UTC (12 Aug). There is a chance of some slight enhanced aurora at high latitude late Thursday night UTC (13 Aug) due to a connection to coronal hole fast winds, but this is considered more likely to occur through Friday, which may lead to some slight enhancement to the auroral oval Friday night UTC (14 Aug). Thereafter aurora is expected to revert to background levels.
Issued at: 13:33 (GMT) on Wed 12 Aug 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 from Day 3 (14 Aug).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity is Low with isolated Common-class flares. There are currently four sunspot regions on the visible disc, all of which are relatively small and simple at times of writing, although most have shown some slight enhancements in recent hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds were slightly elevated, starting around 400km/s and rising to 450km/s by the end of the period. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was initially Moderate, but soon fell to weak levels <8nT where it remained for the rest of the period. The north-south component has been weak and variable. The geomagnetic activity has been Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to remain Low, with only a slight chance of an isolated Moderate class flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak CME arrived on the 11 Aug, but only gave minor geomagnetic enhancements. A small coronal hole may give some further slight enhancements Day 1 (12 Aug) but this is low confidence. A further coronal hole is expected to connect with Earth from later Day 2 (13 Aug), or more likely through Day 3 (14 Aug), but this is also low confidence.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) with a chance of Active intervals Day 1 (12 Aug). Activity may increase again late Day 2 (13 Aug) or more likely through Day 3 (14 Aug) upon connection to CH86/+, to bring a likelihood of Active intervals and a chance of G1/Minor geomagnetic storms, which may also continue into Day 4 (15 Aug).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to continue at Background.
Issued at: 12:11 (GMT) on Wed 12 Aug 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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