Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No significant space weather activity is expected with aurora sightings unlikely.
Southern Hemisphere
No significant space weather activity is expected with aurora sightings unlikely.
Issued at: 02:24 (GMT) on Sat 17 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: A Chance of Isolated Moderate-class Flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, peaking with a C6.0 flare at 16/1916 UTC. There are four regions on the disc. The region in the southwest, remains the most significant region, as it is the largest and most complex. This is relatively stable in size, though some of the northern sunspots look to be moving northwards away from the leading spot and there is some waxing and waning of the trailing spots. A region in the northeast is showing some penumbral growth of it's intermediate spots. The other regions are small and simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as measured by SOLAR-1 at L1, were indicative of a waning high speed stream from a coronal hole, with Slightly Elevated speeds between 440-470 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak. The north-south component, Bz, fluctuated weakly between positive and negative for the start of the period, becoming generally weakly negative from 16/1326 UTC and then changing to mostly weakly positive from 16/2007 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux has been at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue with a Chance of rising to Moderate.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs feature in the forecast. The waning fast winds from a coronal hole are expected to reach Background levels later on Day 1 or Day 2 (17-18 Oct), which is supported by model data. The next enhancement from coronal hole has some uncertainty with regards arrival time, and could be on Day 3 (19 Oct) or even 21 Oct, but most likely on Day 4 (20 Oct).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3), with a slight chance of Active (Kp4) intervals early Day 1 (17 Oct). Later on Day 1 (17 Oct) mainly Quiet (Kp0-2) conditions are expected. However, by Day 3 (19 Oct) geomagnetic activity may increase to Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4), with a slight chance of a G1/Minor (Kp5) geomagnetic storm, with this becoming more likely on Day 4 (20 Oct).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV protons are expected to persist at Background, with only a slight chance of rising to the S1 Minor Radiation Storm level.
Issued at: 00:11 (GMT) on Sat 17 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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