Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to remain near background levels at first. There is an increasing chance of minor auroral activity from 08-09 Jan due to coronal hole fast winds, this mainly confined to high latitudes, but possibly visible from parts of northern Scotland where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to remain near background levels at first. There is an increasing chance of minor auroral activity from 08-09 Jan due to coronal hole fast winds, this mainly confined to high latitudes. Auroral sightings are unlikely however due to short hours of darkness.
Issued at:
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals, mainly day 3 (09 Jan). Isolated Moderate class flares likely.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with only common class flares observed, mostly from the regions in the east disc. There are ten sunspot regions visible. The main region of interest is the small region in the south, now approaching the centre disc. This has seen ongoing emergence of small spots around a previous mature unipolar spot, and produced multiple small (common class) eruptive flares. This also has a large connected filament that could further destabilise the region. The other main region in the east disc is relatively large but simple bipolar spot, however this has seen the development of a small opposite polarity spot ("delta spot") on its main leader. Slight growth has also been seen to the northeast of this region, and in the northwest disc, however these regions remain relatively small.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the common class-flare from the more active sunspot region at 07/0010 UTC has been assessed as mainly missing south and east of Earth, but with a glancing impact possible on 09 Jan.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Slow wind conditions prevailed. Speeds were at Background, easing from 380km/s to 330km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field has been weak with the north-south component mainly positive (northward) but also weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a likelihood of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are a number of CMEs that have been observed leaving the Sun in the last few days, all faint and mostly missing Earth. However, there is a potential for glancing impacts from these from late day 2 (08 Jan). This could combine with the anticipated enhancement from CH12/- and CH13/-, which is also most likely to occur from later on day 2, peaking day 3 (08-09 Jan), with the potential for solar winds to reach 600-700 km/s. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increased from Quiet to Unsettled at first, to be Unsettled to Active with an increasing likelihood of G1/ Minor Storm intervals day 2 to day 3 (08-09 Jan).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at Background.
Issued at:
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: