Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast winds could bring some very limited enhancements to the aurora overnight on Monday (UTC). Any visibility is likely to remain limited to northernmost latitudes, with viewings unlikely to extend as far south as northern Scotland or similar geomagnetic latitudes. Background aurora conditions are then expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
Southern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast winds could bring some very limited enhancements to the aurora overnight on Monday (UTC). However, any visibility is likely to remain limited to Antarctica, with viewings unlikely to extend further north. Background aurora conditions are then expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
Issued at: 02:55 (GMT) on Mon 5 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Further G1 Minor storm intervals possible early day 1 (05 Oct).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Very Low with only isolated Background-class flares observed. There are currently five sunspot regions on the disc, all of which are small and magnetically simple and largely stable.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs) were observed in available imagery
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A connection to fast winds from a coronal hole was observed. Solar winds accelerated from Background speeds, below 300km/s, at first to be Elevated to Strong, 550-640km/s by 04/1717 UTC. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was initially Weak, but became Moderate to Strong 04/0000-1800UTC, before easing to be Moderate thereafter. The north-south component was Moderate to Strong, and variable in direction throughout, although favouring a southward orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4), with three G1 Minor Storm (Kp5) periods observed.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisting at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Very Low activity is expected, with a chance of rising to Low with isolated Common class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth directed CMEs. Fast solar winds will persist early day 1 (05 Oct), but are then expected to gradually ease through the period with mainly Background winds later day 3 and day 4 (07-08 Oct). Active to G1 Minor Storms at first, will ease to Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of Active intervals by day 2 (06 Oct), then mainly Quiet to Unsettled day 3-4 (07-08 Oct).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisting at Background.
Issued at: 00:19 (GMT) on Mon 5 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: