Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic storm intervals day 1 (20 May). Increasing Chance of isolated R1/Minor Radio Blackouts throughout.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Low with only Common-class flares observed. There are currently five sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. One located in the northwest quadrant, remains the most active region, with a substantial leader in the north with smaller peripheral spots of mixed polarity behind and to the south. Another in the northwest, continues to exhibit some development with further emergence of penumbra around the intermediate spots. The remaining regions in the east are small, simple and stable.

There were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) observed in the past 24hrs.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a combination of a waning fast winds and waning coronal mass ejection effects. Solar winds started Elevated, before reducing back to the current Slightly Elevated levels. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component was Weak but largely negative to start before becoming mostly positive. The resulting geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp1-4).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The high energy proton flux was at or near background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low solar activity is expected to continue, though there is an increasing Chance of isolated Moderate class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A coronal mass ejection which left the Sun on 16 May may arrive day 1 (20 May). Otherwise, solar wind speeds are expected to remain primarily influenced by weakening fast winds. With speeds declining through current Slightly Elevated levels back to Slow-Ambient speeds day 2 or 3 (21-22 May). There is a Slight Chance of solar winds reaching Strong levels again day 1 (20 May), should the glancing coronal mass ejection arrive at Earth.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain largely at Quiet to Unsettled levels (Kp1–3). However, there is a Slight Chance of Active to G1/Minor Storm conditions (Kp4-5) day 1 (20 May), due to the potential glancing coronal mass ejection.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The high energy proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.