Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at predominantly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible Saturday night into Sunday and perhaps also Sunday night, due to a combination of fast solar winds and the potential of a glancing coronal mass ejection However, any visible aurora will likely be limited to northern Scotland and similar latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible during the southern hemisphere Saturday night into Sunday and perhaps also Sunday night, due to a combination of fast solar winds and the potential of a glancing coronal mass ejection. However, any visibility will likely remain limited to high latitudes such as New Zealand's south island.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Likelihood of further Moderate Solar flares. Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Days 1-2 (25-26 Apr)
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been High, with three Moderate flares in the past 24 hours. The peak being from the large region now rotated over the western limb. The smaller moderate class flares originated in a spot situation in the southeast of the disc.
There are now eight sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest and most magnetically complex is a region approaching the northern central disk. This region has seen continues to show a complex magnetic structure and has seen some penumbral growth amongst its intermediate spots in recent hours. The region that has jsut rotated over the western limb was the most active region on the disc in recent days. A region in the southeast continues to display a some complexity amongst its southern spots. The remaining regions are smaller and comparatively magnetically simple.
CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were seen originating from the region now rotated over the western limb in association with the Moderate class flare, but is not expected to have Earth directed component.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds have increased to slightly elevated levels of 400-420km/s, likely due to an early connection to coronal hole fast winds. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly weak, but did become moderate for a time between 25/0000-0500 UTC. The north-south component was weak, initially favouring a negative (southward) direction, but rotated to favour a positive (northward) direction from 25/0000UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 0-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at near Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate to High solar activity is expected to continue at first, with a likelihood of occasional Moderate solar flares and a slight chance of further isolated Strong solar flares. Flare risk expected to decrease slightly through the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Several weak CMEs (coronal mass ejections) may arrive at Earth, most likely on Day 2 (26 Apr), either glancing or associated with the shock from larger CMEs off the northwest.
Solar wind speeds may peak around 450-500km/s through Day 1-2 (25-26 Apr) due to a connection coronal hole fast winds. Geomagnetic activity due to these fast winds is likely to be fairly muted due to the unfavourable polarity of these coronal holes for the time of year. This evolution is complicated by the potential glancing CME influence through a similar period.
Geomagnetic activity will likely be Quiet to Active (Kp1-4) for much of Day 1 and 2 (25-26 April). There is a slight chance of G1/Minor Storms (Kp5) on Day 1 due to coronal hole fast winds, but a greater chance on Day 2 due with any glancing CME impacts. Through Day 3 into Day 4 (27-28 Apr) geomagnetic activity is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled levels (Kp1-3) once again.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently expected to remain at generally Background levels, although with an ongoing slight chance of enhancement following any significant Solar flare activity.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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