Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
On 07 Sep faster solar winds will become established at Earth, perhaps coupled with a low confidence, very weak and possible glancing Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). This could bring a modest enhancement to the aurora, potentially allowing views to the far north of Scotland and similar latitudes where skies remain clear. A further enhancement is likely between 08-10 Sep following the arrival of one, or possibly more combined CMEs. Aurora will likely be visible from much of Scotland, with a chance of sightings extending to northern parts of England, as well as Northern Ireland.
Southern Hemisphere
On 07 Sep faster solar winds will become established at Earth, perhaps coupled with a low confidence, very weak and possible glancing Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). This could bring a modest enhancement to the aurora, allowing a chance of views from the far south of New Zealand and Tasmania where skies remain clear. A further enhancement is likely between 08-10 Sep following the arrival of one, or possibly more combined CMEs. Aurora is likely to become visible from the far south of New Zealand and Tasmania, with a chance of extending slightly further north.
Issued at: 03:31 (GMT) on Mon 7 Sep 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate class flares and increased Geomagnetic activity expected in the coming days.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with only isolated Common-class flares observed. There are currently six sunspots on the visible disc, however, most appear stable and magnetically simple.
A moderately fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) sourced from a sunspot region in the northeast disc and associated solar flare peaking at 06/1042 UTC has been analysed and is considered likely to impact Earth either late 08 or early 09 Sep.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a slow wind regime but with late indications of an approaching coronal hole fast wind. Solar wind speeds were at background levels, ranging between 330-375km/s through the period. Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength was mainly Weak, but increased to Moderate after 06/2150 UTC. The important north-south component, Bz, varied Weakly with no particular orientation favoured. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) at geostationary orbit was at background levels, slightly above the ambient state but declining following the S1/Minor Proton storm on 05 Sep.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is likely with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares and a very slight chance of an isolated Strong flare, most likely from the regions in the eastern disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A slow CME that left the Sun on 02 Sep may give a slight enhancement on passing close to Earth on Day 1 (07 Sep). Several CMEs that left the Sun on 05-06 Sep have a chance of impacting Earth with at least one expected to pass over the planet and potentially arriving as a single, combined event with others. Arrival timings carry lower than usual confidence, but most likely either late Day 2 (08 Sep) or early Day 3 (09 Sep).
Solar winds should become enhanced on Day 1 (07 Sep) resulting from the connection to a coronal hole fast wind. Speeds should increase to Slightly Elevated or Elevated levels at peak. A general decline in speeds would be expected from Day 2 or 3 (08 or 09 Sep) but likely to be contaminated by CME influences.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) on Day 1 (07 Sep). There is also a chance of isolated Minor storm/G1 (Kp5) intervals. Thereafter confidence is low, but broadly Unsettled to Active conditions should persist given the likelihood of CME influence. The greatest chance of significant activity is on Day 3 (09 Sep) resulting from expected CME arrival(s) but could come later on Day 2 (08 Sep). G1 (Kp5)/Minor to G2 (Kp6)/Moderate geomagnetic storming is likely, with a slight chance of peak G3 (Kp7)/Strong activity being realised.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The number of energetic particles (high energy proton flux) is forecast to remain at background, with no Solar Radiation Storms expected.
Issued at: 00:29 (GMT) on Mon 7 Sep 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: