Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Two CMEs (coronal mass ejections) may give glancing effects later on 14 Jul, or during 15 Jul. These may enhance aurora over northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes on Tuesday night and Wednesday night UTC. However, any aurora sightings are likely to be limited by short hours of darkness.
Southern Hemisphere
Two CMEs (coronal mass ejections) may give glancing effects later on 14 Jul, or during 15 Jul. These may enhance aurora over southern New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes on Tuesday night and Wednesday night UTC.
Issued at: 21:58 (GMT) on Mon 13 Jul 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of Moderate solar activity. Slight chance of G1 Geomagnetic Storms Day 1 and 2 (14 and 15 July).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity is Low with only isolated Common-class flares observed. There are three sunspot regions visible on the solar disc, the largest of these is situated in the southwest disc. It contains a large lead spot with occasional proliferation of small spots of opposite polarity to the leader in its trailing region. Overall, evolution of the region is slow, however. The remaining two sunspot groups on the disc are stable and magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) were observed in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a waning high-speed stream accompanied by a glancing CME. Winds speeds declined from Slightly Elevated levels (peak 436km/s at 13/1559 UTC) to Background levels (around 390km/s) by the end of the period. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak to Moderate. The north-south component, Bz, varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Mostly Low or Very Low, but with a Slight Chance Moderate-class flares (Moderate activity).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Two CMEs that left the Sun on 12 July have a chance to give glancing impacts at Earth on day 2 (15 July), possibly arriving as a single event. Otherwise, Earth is expected to be at or close to normal Background solar wind conditions during the four-day period with no significant enhancements expected.
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be Quiet or Unsettled through much of, if not the entire forecast period. There remains a Chance of Active intervals and Slight Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms, mainly days 1 and 2 (14 and 15 July).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at Background levels.
Issued at: 12:26 (GMT) on Tue 14 Jul 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: