Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Limited enhancements to the auroral oval are expected, perhaps with the greatest chance on 25 Nov due to faster solar winds. However, any aurora sightings are likely to be limited to high latitudes (north of 60N).
Southern Hemisphere
Limited enhancements to the auroral oval are expected, perhaps with the greatest chance on 25 Nov due to faster solar winds. However, any aurora sightings are likely to be limited to high latitudes (south of 60S).
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor storms day 4.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with occasional common class flares observed in the past 24 hours. Six sunspot regions feature on the visible side of the solar disc. A declining modest sized bipolar region in the southwest, with a reduction in magnetic complexity. The remaining regions are simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a declining high speed stream. Wind speeds were slightly elevated. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was moderate, before later falling to weak. The north-south component followed a similar trend but was mostly weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was near background levels, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low solar activity is forecast with a slight chance of isolated Moderate flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections expected. Solar winds are at slightly elevated levels due to waning coronal hole fast winds. On day 4 (25 Nov), the next coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position bringing the next increase in solar winds, perhaps reaching Strong speeds.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of Active. On day 4 (25 Nov), activity may rise to Unsettled to Active, with a Chance of G1/Minor storms due to coronal hole fast winds.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to remain at background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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