Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Near background aurora conditions are expected initially on Friday 2nd January. Either late 2nd January, or more likely early Saturday 3rd January (UTC time zone) a Coronal Mass Ejection arrival is expected. Where skies are sufficiently clear and dark, aurora may become visible by the naked-eye from Scotland as well as potentially Northern England and Northern Ireland. There is a slight chance that views could extend south to parts of Wales and central England should conditions be favourable. By Sunday 4th January the auroral oval is likely to return to background, or near background latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Near background aurora conditions are expected initially on Friday 2nd January. Either late 2nd January, or more likely early Saturday 3rd January (UTC time zone) a Coronal Mass Ejection arrival is expected. Where skies are sufficiently clear and dark, aurora may become from the south of South Island, New Zealand and similar latitudes. However, given limited hours of darkness at this time of year, sightings may be hard to come by.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor to Moderate geomagnetic storming expected Days 2 and 3 (03-04 Jan) with a slight chance of peak Strong geomagnetic activity. Chance of Moderate-class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with a peak high Common-class flare from the largest region on the facing-disc, located near the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. There are currently seven sunspot regions visible, the largest of which is the region mentioned above. Despite some initial growth, this region has more recently decreased in magnetic complexity and seen some decay of its intermediate spots located between its much larger mature lead and trailing spots. Next largest region, located near the centre disc in the northern hemisphere has decreased in size, but has recently developed a tentative delta spot in its trailer spot, giving it some magnetic complexity. This sunspot region has produced occasional Common-class flares, including a long-duration flare peaking at 01/1759 UTC. A moderately sized region crossed over the western limb late in the period. Most other regions on the facing-disc were in decay, however, a newly numbered and small region has developed in the southeast disc.
A rather slow Coronal mass Ejection (CME) associated with the aforementioned long-duration flare has been analysed and modelled, and the results show an Earth-directed component, with an arrival time of around the middle of Day 3 (04 Jan).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have been Elevated to Slightly Elevated, peaking at 580km/s at 02/0931 UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field was Weak to Moderate. The important north-south component periodically varied, but slightly favoured a negative (southward) orientation. The result of the above solar parameters was for Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity (Kp 1-3), with an Active interval observed at 02/0300-0600 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a chance of Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A moderately-fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that left the Sun on 31 Dec is likely to arrive at Earth either late on Day 1 (02 Jan), but more likely early on Day 2 (03 Jan). A second Earth-directed CME that occurred from a region in the north-centre disc on 01 Jan has been analysed, and is likely to arrive on Day 3 (04 Jan).
Slightly elevated to occasionally elevated solar winds resulting from the ongoing coronal hole fast wind enhancement will continue over the coming days. Speeds will temporarily be bolstered by the anticipated 31 Dec CME arrival around the start of Day 2 (03 Jan), similarly on Day 3 (04 Jan) with a second, but slower CME arrival anticipated. A gradual decline in solar wind speeds is likely on Day 4 (05 Jan).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled initially, increasing to G1-G2 (Kp5-6) levels either late Day 1 (02 Jan) or more likely early Day 2 (03 Jan) following the arrival of the 31 Dec CME. There is a slight chance of peak G3 (Kp7) geomagnetic storm intervals being reached. Similarly on Day 3 (04 Jan) with a second CME likely to arrive around the middle of the day, with geomagnetic activity likely to reach G1-G2 (Kp5-6) storm levels, before gradually declining on Day 4 (05 Jan).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to continue at background levels with solar radiation storms not expected to occur.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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