Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate solar activity likely. G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storms possible from Coronal Mass Ejection influence Day 1 into Day 2 (01-02 Jul).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: High activity was observed, with a peak Strong-flare from a region in the northwest at 30/2050UTC. There are five sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The largest region is located in the south-centre disc. It has remained largely steady recently with no growth observed and retaining a couple of delta spots, but despite magnetic complexity it has shown little major flare activity. The region in the northwest is the second largest region and continues to show growth, mainly in the penumbral extent of its leading region. This region also contains at least two delta spots, and has been the main source of flare activity, most notably the Strong-flare mentioned above. An active region in the southwest did previously contain a weak delta spot in its central penumbra, although this is now difficult to see in imagery as the region rotates closer to the southwestern limb. The remaining two spots are small and simple.

The aforementioned Strong-flare from the large region in the northwest has produced a CME, with further coronagraph imagery awaited to determine any Earth-directed impacts. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds were initially at Background levels, but rose to Slightly Elevated from 30/1100UTC following a CME arrival. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak at first, increasing to Moderate following the CME arrival. The important north-south component was initially Weak, becoming Moderate following the CME arrival but remaining largely positive. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-2) at first, rising to Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) after the CME arrival.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate activity with further isolated Moderate-class flares likely, and a Slight Chance of another Strong (X-class) flare.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The 26 Jun CME was observed arriving at 30/1100UTC, albeit relatively weak so far. A slow-moving CME from 27 Jun may arrive later on Day 1 ( 01 Jul).

Solar winds are at Slightly Elevated levels, currently near 410km/s, after the recent CME arrival. They will likely fall back to Background levels from Day 2 (02 Jul) onwards barring any further CME arrivals.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active at first due to ongoing effects from the 26 Jun CME arrival, with G1 Minor Storms intervals probable, and a lower risk of G2 Moderate storming. A possible further CME arrival later on Day 1 (01 Jul) could see these effects enhanced and continue into Day 2 (02 Jul), although this is lower confidence. From Day 3 (03 Jul), geomagnetic activity is likely to return to Quiet to Unsettled conditions. This forecast is likely to change pending analysis of the Strong-flare CME.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist mostly at Background levels, however there is a risk for Solar Radiation Storms occurring on Day 1 (01 Jul) in response to the Strong-class flare observed late on 30 Jun.