Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see an enhancement late on Saturday or more likely on Sunday (UTC) due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some brief glimpses from the north of Scotland, and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see an enhancement late on Saturday or more likely on Sunday (UTC) due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some glimpses from south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated M-class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with seven sunspot regions currently on the Earth-facing disc. Peak flare was of Moderate class at 26/0623 UTC from AR4403 in the northeast. This is a simple spot that has recently moved onto the disc. AR4401 in the northeast was the other notable region, with increased penumbral area of its trailer. The other region remained stable, or in decay.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were visible in available imagery, with one CME from a filament eruption at 25/2140 UTC currently under analysis.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds, as observed by ACE at L1 were initially Elevated around 550km/s and then eased erratically to be Slightly Elevated at around 450km/s since 26/0000 UTC. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was Weak. The north-south component was initially variable but mainly northward and weak between +6/-5 nT. However since 26/0500 UTC has been predominantly southward. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is likely to be Low, but with an ongoing chance of isolated M-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs currently in the forecast. Solar winds are expected to gradually ease towards Background, before the next fast wind enhancement from CH34/+. This is most likely late on day 3 or day 4 (28-29 Mar) with Slightly Elevated to Elevated solar winds (450-550 km/s) expected. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled with a decreasing chance of Active intervals. The next fast wind enhancement is expected to give a spell of Unsettled to Active with only a slight chance of G1 Minor Storms.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at Background with no solar radiation storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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