Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Days 2 and 3 (01-02 Oct).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low during the last 24 hours, with occasional low-level Common-class flares, peaking at C1.5 at 29/2146 UTC. There are two sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, both are small and relatively magnetically simple. The region in the northwest of the disc has seen the reemergence of one of it's intermediate spots. The central southern region has seen some penumbral growth in it's leading spot with the distance between the two sunspots increasing over the last few hours. The magnetic field within this region appears to have become a bit more complex, and is now classified as a beta-gamma region.

A Coronal Mass Ejection associated with a large filament eruption in the northwest disc which occurred around 28/1430 UTC has been assessed and is likely to give Earth a flanking impact (mostly passing ahead of Earth-orbit) either late Day 2 (01 Oct) or more likely early day 3 (02 Oct). 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as observed by SOLAR-1 at L1, showed background conditions. Solar wind speeds have been slowly declining from around 320km/s down to 280km/s currently. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak. The north-south component, Bz, was mostly negative (southward) but did vary weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 >10MeV proton flux was at normal background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is likely to be Low or Very Low, with a chance of further isolated Common-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A Coronal Mass Ejection associated with a large filament eruption in the northwest disc which occurred around 28/1430 UTC has been assessed and is likely to give Earth a flanking impact (mostly passing ahead of Earth-orbit) either late Day 2 (01 Oct) or more likely early Day 3 (02 Oct). Enlil suggests solar wind speeds could reach 500km/s in association with any glancing impact of the Coronal Mass Ejection. It also suggest that connection to coronal hole fast winds is possible by end of Day 4 (03 Oct), but this seems too early and is likely to come in after our forecast period. 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet, perhaps with isolated Unsettled intervals. This becoming Unsettled to Active with a chance of G1/Minor storm and a slight chance of G2/Moderate storm intervals on Days 2-3 (01-02 Oct), should we see glancing influence from the 28 Sep CME.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.