Space Weather Forecast Headline: High solar activity likely. Slight Chance of Minor storms from CME influence Day 1 (02 Jul). Another CME arrival is expected Day 2 (03 Jul), with Minor to Moderate storms expected.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity has been High over the last 24 hours, with the largest flare a high level Moderate class observed at 01/2309 UTC from the largest region on the disc in the southwest, which is also magnetically complex. There are currently three other sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, one of which is reasonably large and is also magnetically complex and active. A region in the southwest has also been active, and has developed into a small but moderately complex region. The remaining region is small, magnetically simple and weakening.

Several Moderate class flares occurred through the period, and at least two at 01/1454 UTC and 01/1943 UTC have produced Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) which are likely to have an Earth directed component. These will be analysed once sufficient imagery is available.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds, have mostly been at Background to Slightly Elevated levels, ranging between 365-420km/s, following the arrival of a weak CME on 30 Jun. The strength of the solar wind's magnetic field was Moderate to Strong. The north-south component was Weak to Moderate following the CME arrival, but remained largely positive, with brief re-orientations to negative. . Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active at first, then declined to current Quiet conditions.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: High activity is likely, with occasional Moderate class flares expected and a chance of an isolated Strong flare.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A slow-moving CME from 27 Jun may arrive early Day 1 (02 Jul). A further CME is expected Day 2 (03 Jul) following the Strong flare on 30 Jun. Further CME's are likely to feature in the forecast once analysis has been undertaken of at least two CME's associated with Moderate Class flares on 01 Jul.

Solar winds are currently Slightly Elevated and are likely to remain Slightly Elevated, despite the potential arrival of a weak CME (which left the Sun on 27 Jun) early Day 1 (02 Jul).  The CME following the Strong flares is expected to arrive on Day 2 (03 Jul) with solar winds perhaps rising to reach Elevated, perhaps Strong levels, before gradually declining on Day 3 (04 Jul).  Further CME's are likely to feature in the forecast, with solar winds potentially increasing to Strong levels at times.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet with a chance of increasing Unsettled to Active if a weak CME arrives early Day 1 (02 Jul). A CME associated with the Strong flare on 30 Jun is likely to arrive Day 2 (03 Jul), with geomagnetic activity likely to reach Active to minor geomagnetic storm with a chance of isolated Moderate storm (Kp 6) intervals, and a slight chance of Strong storm, if the CME is more impactful than anticipated. Activity is likely to decrease thereafter, unless further CME's arrive.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to be at Background levels, but with a chance of reaching Minor-Moderate Radiation storming with any significant flares.