Space Weather Forecast Headline: Rising slight chance of G1 Minor geomagnetic storm to end UTC working week.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity was Low, with a solitary small-scale Common Class x-ray flare observed at 03/2239UTC from the largest and most complex region on the Sun in the southeast.

There are now up to four sunspot regions, with a new magnetically unipolar spot developing in the northeast. The most complex and most dynamic region remains in the southeast, with proliferation of trailing spots observed in the period and some mixing of magnetic polarities here - such regions show a greater propensity to flare. Other regions were simpler and more stable.

A slow and faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) became visible in satellite imagery over the course of the UTC day of 03 November, apparently heading east of the Sun-Earth line. An eastern hemisphere far-side source seems most likely, which if true would not play any part in the forecast. This is under review. No other CMEs were visible in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a resumed decline to leave a slow regime. Solar winds were initially slightly elevated but finished the 24 hours near background. the number of particles in the solar wind was below average, with a level tendency throughout. Their associated magnetic field was weak, and while the north-south component was most often orinetated in opposition to Earth's field (i.e. southward), the small magnitude of other solar wind measures limited arising geomagnetic activity, which stayed quiet.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Very low or low activity is likely to continue, although there is a rising slight chance of M-class flaring, both from the possible return of regions over the eastern solar horizon, and from AR4566 given its increasing complexity.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun on 01 Nov is a most likely miss, but may glance Earth during Thursday 05 November. Otherwise, some minor fast wind influence is possible around the same time, although this mechanism alone would probably register below Minor geomagnetic storm G1. A second and more assured source of fast wind should then arrive during Friday 06 November, with a peak for the period of a slight chance of G1.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected.