Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

A high speed stream from a solar wind enhancement is expected to arrive later Day 1, bringing the chance of visible aurora to northern Scotland and similar latitudes through Friday UTC night, where skies are clear and during the very limited hours of darkness. Some enhanced aurora may persist Saturday UTC night, but aurora levels are expected to fall back to background levels from Sunday.

Southern Hemisphere

A solar wind enhancement is expected to arrive early during the southern hemisphere Saturday. This brings the chance of visible aurora to the far south of New Zealand and similar latitudes during the southern hemisphere early hours of Saturday but more likely during the southern hemisphere Sunday night, where skies are clear. After this the auroral oval is expected to decline to background levels.

Issued at: 00:36 (GMT) on Fri 15 May 2026

Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate-class solar flares. Minor storm intervals Likely Days 1 and 2 (15 and 16 May).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Low over the past 24hrs, with occasional low level Common-class flaring observed.

There are three sunspot regions on the visible disc, all bipolar regions and either small or modestly sized.  The largest region, in the northeast, displayed recent slight decay in small peripheral spots to the south of the main spot. The smallest region, located in the northwest, showed some small spot emergence in its southern portion through the period. The remaining small region, in the northwest, which currently appears to growing slightly in area.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24hrs.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds started with residual enhanced activity in association with a weak glancing CME that arrived on the 13th May, from the 10 May Moderate class flare. Solar wind speeds were initially at slightly elevated levels of 450–500km/s, before slowly declining through the rest of the period to background levels generally between 370-400km/s. The strength of the solar wind's magnetic field was weak, as was the north–south component,  while favouring a positive (northward) direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at Background. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to continue generally Low, but with a chance of Moderate class flares. No significant regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc during the period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds are expected to start at background levels around 350-400 km/s.  Through Day 1 (15 May) a fast wind enhancement is expected  to arrive from the large coronal hole now in the western hemisphere, with solar winds reaching elevated levels. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist Days 2 and 3, with a gradual decline beginning from Day 4 (18 May).

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet initially. With the onset of enhanced solar winds expected later Day 1 (15 May), geomagnetic activity is forecast to increase to Unsettled to Active, with Minor storm intervals Likely and a slight chance of Moderate storms. These conditions will persist into Day 2 (16 May) before returning to mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels during Days 3 and 4 (17 and 18 May).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected. 

Issued at: 00:13 (GMT) on Fri 15 May 2026

Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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