Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to remain at background levels initially. However, the arrival of the CH73 high-speed stream during 09 July may lead to an enhancement of the auroral oval. As a result, aurora may become visible from northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, although observations are likely to be limited by short hours of darkness and cloud cover.
Southern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to remain at background levels initially. However, the arrival of the CH73 high-speed stream during 09 July (UTC) may enhance the auroral oval. As a result, aurora may become visible across southern New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 02:19 (GMT) on Thu 9 Jul 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate solar activity. Chance of G1 Day 1 (09 Jul), decreasing chance into Day 2 (10 Jul).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate over the past 24 hours, with a single, impulsive Moderate flare observed from a large and complex region in the southeast quadrant.
There are five sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. The largest and most magnetically complex region is located in the southeast. It is dominated by a large leading spot, followed by two smaller trailing spots and shows some moderate magnetic complexity. A region in the southwest has undergone some raid development in the past 24hrs, and is one to watch. The remaining three regions are relatively small and magnetically simple.
No Earth directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed during this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds oscillated between background and slightly elevated levels over the past 24 hours (360-450)km/s, on an erratic declining trend. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak to moderate. The north-south component was predominantly weakly negative (southwards). Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was near background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected to continue with a chance of further Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs feature in the forecast period. The only significant feature during the forecast period is the largest coronal hole in the west of the solar disc This recurrent coronal hole is expected to connect with Earth through Day 1 (09 Jul), with speeds up to 600 km/s possible.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0–3) ahead of the expected fast winds during Day 1 (09 Jul). Activity is then expected to increase, becoming Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4), with a chance of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm intervals (Kp5), before activity begins to decline again from Days 2 and 3 (10-11 Jul) onward.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained below the S1/Minor radiation storm level. There is a slight chance of proton flux exceeding the S1 (Minor) radiation storm threshold due to the presence of large regions beyond the western limb, with this risk declining after Day 1 (09 Jul).
Issued at: 00:17 (GMT) on Thu 9 Jul 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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