Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No significant space weather activity is expected with aurora sightings unlikely at first. From later on 26 Aug into 27 Aug (UTC), a fast wind may bring aurora to higher latitudes, with a chance of aurora sightings reaching northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
No significant space weather activity is expected with aurora sightings unlikely at first. From later on 26 Aug into 27 Aug (UTC), a fast wind may bring aurora to higher latitudes, with a chance of aurora sightings reaching the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 12:23 (GMT) on Mon 24 Aug 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of R1/Minor Radio Blackouts throughout. Increasing chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm Days 3-4 (26-27 Aug).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with just Common-class flares observed in the last 24 hours. There are currently four sunspot regions on the visible disc. The most notable region on the disc, due to its size and magnetic complexity, is just east of centre disc. A nearby region, and one in the northwest, have both grown somewhat, but for now both have a simple magnetic structure. The remaining region is small and simple.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the last 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a waning fast wind. Speeds reduced from slightly elevated to slow, initially around 440 km/s but now near 370 m/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was a little above normal background levels, but below the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected, with a chance of Moderate-class flares, most likely from the larger more complex region on the disc. There remains a slight chance of Strong flares from this region.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth directed CMEs are currently expected. Solar wind speeds are now slow after the recent fast wind. Similar wind speeds are expected through Days 1 and 2 (24-25 Aug). A further fast wind is considered unlikely to arrive at Earth until either later on Day 3 (26 Aug), or perhaps more likely on Day 4 (27 Aug), with wind speeds increasing to around 500-600 km/s.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3) into the start of Day 3. Activity is expected to increase to Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) later Day 3 into Day 4, with an increasing chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals (Kp5) as the anticipated fast wind arrives.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight chance of solar radiation reaching above the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold throughout the period.
Issued at: 12:11 (GMT) on Mon 24 Aug 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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