Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Residual CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) influence, followed by coronal hole fast winds are expected to maintain enhanced geomagnetic activity into 22 March. Aurora likely to be visible at times on Sunday night across Scotland, and perhaps the far north of England and N Ireland. A slowly decreasing chance of enhanced auroral visibility then likely into the period.
Southern Hemisphere
Residual CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) influence, followed by coronal hole fast winds are expected to maintain enhanced geomagnetic activity into 22 March. Aurora likely to be visible at times on Sunday night across higher geomagnetic latitudes. A slowly decreasing chance of enhanced auroral visibility then likely into the period.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Ongoing Minor to Moderate geomagnetic storms likely initially, with a slight chance of Strong storms. Geomagnetic activity expected to wane into the period.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity has been Low to Very Low, with isolated Common-class flare activity observed. There are currently five sunspot regions on the visible disc, one un-numbered. The bipolar region in the southwest disc retains a relatively large, mature spot with small waxing/waning peripheral spots that continue to provide some magnetic complexity. Other regions are small and simple with limited developments.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were variable at Slightly Elevated to Elevated levels, mainly between 450-550km/s, with peak 568 km/s. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly Strong, briefly reaching Very Strong during the UTC afternoon of 21 March. However, a sharp decline was observed after 21/1900UTC to mostly average levels as CME influence waned. The important north-south component was Strongly variable, often negative (southward) before 21/0900UTC then mostly positive (northward) thereafter. After 21/1900UTC, it became weakly variable. Geomagnetic activity was initially at G3/Strong Storm level (Kp 7) 21/0000-0300UTC, followed by G1/Minor Storm 21/0300-0900UTC, before reducing to Unsettled to Active levels (Kp 3-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Overall Solar activity is expected to continue Low or Very low with a slight, but rising, chance of Moderate activity.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Residual 17-18 Mar CME impacts are expected to gradually wane into early Day 1 (22 Mar) with the dominant feature of the solar wind flow becoming the fast wind stream from coronal hole 33, which is anticipated to arrive at Earth during Day 1 (22 Mar). Fast wind influence is expected to continue into Day 2 (23 Mar), likely slowly easing through Days 3-4 (24-25 Mar).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be generally Unsettled to G1/Minor storm levels (Kp 3 to 5) into Day 1 (22 Mar), with a chance of G2/Moderate storm intervals (Kp 6), and a slight chance of a G3/Strong Storm (Kp 7). Ongoing Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) conditions expected to continue into Days 2 and 3 (23-24 Mar), with a slowly reducing likelihood of further G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) intervals. By Day 4 (25 Mar) largely Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4), with a slight chance of isolated G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar Radiation is expected to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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