Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor storm intervals and isolated Moderate-class flares on Day 1 (17 May). 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Moderate over the past 24hrs with isolated Moderate-class flares observed, peaking at M1.9 at 16/1742 UTC.

There are five sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest region in the northwest is relatively stable in size. While this doesn't appear to be a particularly complex region, there has been some recent activity from it. Another sunspot region in the northwest has shown some weakening of the lead/trailer spots but as it close to the western limb it is becoming difficult to analyse. The other sunspot areas are either newly formed or have recently rotated over the eastern limb and are relatively simple and small. 

There is a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that looks like it comes from the northwest of the disc, but this has not yet been analysed due to lack of imagery. There are no analysed Earth-directed CMEs that have been observed. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds, as observed by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, have been generally Strong at 650-750 km/s, but did peak at 823 km/s at 16/0336 UTC. They have erratically but slowly decreased from that peak but still remain Strong at around 630 km/s.  The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, started Moderate, before reducing to Weak from around 16/0923 UTC. The north-south component, Bz, was variable and generally Weak. Geomagnetic activity was at Unsettled to G2/Moderate storm levels (Kp 3-6).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at Background. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to be generally Low, but with a chance of M-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs currently analysed, though there may be one from the northwest of the disc, but we are still awaiting imagery in order to analyse this. Ongoing Strong solar fast winds expected on Day 1 (17 May), but these will likely erratically decline over Days 1 and 2 (17-18 May), and may reach Background to Slightly Elevated levels  by Day 3 (19 May). 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) with a chance of isolated G1/Minor storm intervals on Day 1 (17 May). During Day 1 (17 May) activity will likely slowly decrease to Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 2-3) with a slight chance of G1/Minor storms intervals. After this activity is expected to reduce further.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.