Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Earth is currently experiencing an enhanced solar wind, but despite this the auroral oval is at background and is likely to remain so through the forecast period. There is only a low likelihood of slightly increased auroral activity Saturday night, leading to a small chance of visible aurora across the far north of Scotland and similar latitudes where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Earth is currently experiencing an enhanced solar wind, but despite this the auroral oval is at background levels and is likely to remain so through the forecast period. There is only a low likelihood of slightly increased auroral activity Saturday UTC night, leading to a small chance of visible aurora across high latitudes where skies are clear through the limited hours of darkness.
Issued at:
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Strong x-ray flares. Chance of solar radiation storms.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been High, with numerous low level Moderate flares, peaking at 05/0436UTC from the largest and most complex region on the Sun in the northwest quadrant.
There are up to nine regions on the facing side of the Sun. The aforementioned region remains by far the largest, most magnetically complex and most active, although there are some tentative signs towards a simpler magnetic classification developing as the region matures. However, some mixing of magnetic polarities is still present, indicating a Strong flare may still be produced. Other regions of interest are a moderately sized region in the southeast, which saw continued growth in its leading penumbral spot in the period, and a region in the southwest which despite its small size and simple magnetic complexity produced one of the Moderate class flares of the period and a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).
This CME was observed in coronagraph imagery and appears to be moving south and may miss Earth, but due to the source location in the southwest quadrant analysis has been undertaken and modelling is currently ongoing. Another CME was seen in imagery, in association with an Moderate flare at 05/2217 UTC from the site of a previous region approaching the southwest limb. Most of the material appears to have been reabsorbed, but once adequate coronagraph imagery is available analysis will be undertaken if a CME was produced.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed declining CME influence, combined with a solar wind enhancement likely associated with a minor coronal hole feature.
The 24-hour period started with Slightly Elevated winds around 470 km/s but gradually increased to become generally Elevated 560-590 km/s, occasionally touching Strong levels with speeds around 610-630 km/s. The strength of the solar winds magnetic field was initially Weak but quickly increased to become Strong, then gradually declined to end the day at Weak levels. Whilst the strength of the solar winds magnetic field was Strong the important north-south component became Strongly and protractedly southward. This resulted in the peak geomagnetic activity of the period. From 05/0530 UTC the north-south component changed to become predominantly northward and quickly declined to become Weak.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was Active to Minor Geomagnetic storm levels at first, then from 05/0900 UTC activity decreased to become Quiet to Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed, despite large x-ray flares.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Further Moderate flares are Expected, with a Chance of isolated Strong flares. Whilst the largest and complex region in the northwest remains the most likely source of significant flares, other smaller and simpler regions also have the potential to contribute to flare activity.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Currently no significant Earth directed CME's are expected, although confirmation is awaited from modelling results regarding the CME's associated with the some of the Moderate flares. In addition, there is a slight chance of a weak glancing blow late on Day 2 or early Day 3 (7-8th) from a CME which left the Sun on 3rd Feb in association with a small filament eruption in the western hemisphere.
Outside of any CME arrivals the current Elevated to occasionally Strong solar winds are expected to gradually wane through the period, becoming Slightly Elevated by Day 4 (9th Feb).
Overall Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected, with a chance of isolated Active intervals, these most likely late Day 2 into early Day 3 (7-8th Feb).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The risk of solar radiation storms and S-scale events rises slightly in the four days as the largest sunspot region moves ever-westward, however the magnitude of this rise has been damped slightly to account for changes in the sunspot group itself. There are no other significant contributors to this risk.
Issued at:
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: