Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at normal background levels on Sunday and Monday (UTC), but may see an enhancement later on Tuesday due to a glancing Coronal Mass Ejection and the onset of fast solar winds. However, these are both low confidence. Any aurora that does occur is likely to remain limited to higher geomagnetic latitudes, perhaps briefly extending as far south as northern Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at normal background levels on Monday (UTC), but may see an enhancement later on Tuesday due to a glancing Coronal Mass Ejection and the onset of fast solar winds. However, these are both low confidence. Any aurora that does occur is likely to remain limited to higher geomagnetic latitudes, perhaps briefly extending far enough north to be visible from the southernmost parts of New Zealand.
Issued at: 03:17 (GMT) on Mon 10 Aug 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Active to Minor geomagnetic storm days 2-3 (11-12 Aug).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with recent Common class solar flares observed. There are three, mostly simple and stable, active regions on the disc. The most notable is in the far northwest which emerged quite rapidly after 08/1200 UTC.
An eruption was observed from the north-centre disc from 08/0300 UTC. The subsequent Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) largely passes above Earth, however there is the potential for a glancing impact day 2-3 (11-12 Aug).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as measured by SOLAR-1, started at Low levels around 330km/s and rose to Slightly Elevated levels around 430km/s by 09/0900 UTC. Interplanetary Magnetic field started the period Strong, and eased to Weak values by 09/0900 UTC. The important northwards-southwards component initially varied Moderately and is now back to weak levels. Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet to Unsettled levels.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is expected to continue, with further Common class flares likely to continue until the region in the far northwest rotates across the western limb.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Slightly elevated solar winds probably declining back to Low levels. A further CME arrival is then possible with a glancing impact on day 2-3 (11-12 Aug). This is due to the 08 Aug north-centre disc filament eruption, although any observed arrival is low confidence, with the CME mainly passing north of Earth. However this could arrive alongside the onset of weak fast winds. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet. However any CME glance or fast wind onset later on day 2 or day 3 (11-12 Apr) will bring a further chance for a spell of Unsettled to Active geomagnetic activity with a probability of isolated Minor Geomagnetic Storm intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background.
Issued at: 00:09 (GMT) on Mon 10 Aug 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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