| No. | Type | Alerts | Warnings | Watches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse Alert |
- :
15:17 (GMT) on Sat 10 Oct 2026 to 15:47 (GMT) on Sat 10 Oct 2026 |
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Two glancing coronal mass ejections followed by a coronal hole high speed stream bring a daily chance of enhancing the auroral oval, with sightings possible across northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic longitudes where skies are clear between 10-13 Oct.
Southern Hemisphere
Two glancing coronal mass ejections, followed by a coronal hole high speed stream bring a daily chance of enhancing the auroral oval, with sightings possible across southern New Zealand and similar geomagnetic longitudes where skies are clear between 10-13 Oct UTC.
Issued at: 00:29 (GMT) on Sat 10 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storming throughout. R1/Radio Blackouts Likely throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, peaking 09/1409 UTC from a region beyond the northwest limb. There are now six sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest and most complex is in the northwest. It still has significant magnetic complexity as it has mixed polarity within a number of leading and intermediate spots. The other notable spot is near the southeast limb, and is exhibiting a large bipolar structure with clearly defined umbra and penumbra around the leading and trailing portions. This region may be larger and perhaps more complex than currently indicated. The other four regions are small and simple at present.
No further Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds speeds indicated mostly background conditions increasing to Slightly-Elevated following a possible weak transient enhancement, starting around 10/0200 UTC. The wind speed was Slow, starting 380 km/s, though began to rise after 10/0200 UTC, peaking at 425 km/s. Density was Above Average until 09/1600 UTC, peaking 17ppcc at 09/1211 UTC, then eased to Average. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was mostly Weak, but became Moderate following the transient arrival, peaking at 11nT. The north-south component, Bz, was generally Weak and southward directed (negative). Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation has been at mostly background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with further Moderate-class flares likely and a slight chance of Strong flares, mainly from the complex region in the northwest, but perhaps the newly numbered region near the southeast limb.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Two coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast period, the first giving a possible glancing blow during the latter half of Day 1 (10 Oct), though it's possible this CME arrived early corresponding with the transient feature observed around 10/0200UTC. The Second giving a possible glancing blow later Day 2 (11 Oct), though confidence is low for timing of both features.
Solar wind speeds are currently at Slightly-Elevated levels. Speeds likely easing to Background at times. Away from coronal mass ejection influence. The next significant coronal hole, in the east may arrive late on Day 3 (12 Oct), but more likely Day 4 (13 Oct), with speeds reaching Elevated, or perhaps Strong.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3) through the period. There is a daily Likelihood of Active (Kp4) periods, a Chance of G1/Minor storming (Kp5), and a Slight Chance of G2/Moderate storming (Kp6) due to glancing coronal mass ejection influences Day 1 and Day 2 (10-11 Oct), then coronal hole fast winds Day 3 and Day 4 (12-13 Oct).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight chance of S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storms throughout the period.
Issued at: 12:18 (GMT) on Sat 10 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: