Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate class flares, slight chance of isolated Strong class flares. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Moderate, with only one Moderate-class flare observed at 05/1518UTC from an area of plage near the southwest limb. There are currently six sunspot regions on the visible disc. These are magnetically simple and relatively small. 

A coronal mass ejection (CME) which followed a Common-flare from a sunspot region approaching centre disc at 05/1043UTC has been analysed and may give a glancing blow at Earth on day 4 (9 Sep). No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period, although a number of eruptions were visible from the activity close to the northeast limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1 were indicative of the slow wind. Solar wind speed were at background levels through the period. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component, Bz, varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) at geostationary orbit reached S1 minor solar radiation storm at 05/1615UTC following the Moderate-class flare near the southwest limb. The S1 minor storm was short-lived and has now ceased. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low-Moderate activity is likely with a chance of further isolated M-class flares and a slight chance of an isolated X-class flare, most likely from the regions close to the east limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak CME from 02 Sep may give a slight enhancement on passing either later day 1 or day 2 (06-07 Sep), although confidence is low. A coronal hole is also expected to bring faster solar winds through a similar period, although confidence is low on timing and strength. A further CME from 5 Sep may give a glancing blow on day 4 (9 Sep). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet (Kp0-2), likely increasing to Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) on days 1-2 (06-07 Sep), with a chance of an isolated Minor storm/G1 (Kp5) intervals, most likely on day 2 (07 Sep), before gradually waning on day 3 (08 Sep). If the CME impacts Earth on day 4 (9 Sep) further Active (Kp 4) intervals become likely with a slight chance of G1 minor geomagnetic storms. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The number of energetic particles (high energy proton flux) is forecast to remain at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms expected.