Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Auroral displays returning to background after Friday night's enhancement. There is a small chance of further enhancement Sunday night with displays limited to northern Scotland where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Auroral displays returning to background after the enhancement on 03 April UTC. There is a small chance of further enhancement into the 6th April UTC with displays limited to southern New Zealand where skies are clear.
Issued at:
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Declining chance of G1/Minor-G2/Moderate Geomagnetic Storms. Likelihood of Moderate Solar flares continues throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate, with the peak flare a M7.5 observed from AR4409 at 04/0117UTC.
There are currently seven sunspot regions visible on the Earth-facing disc. An active region in the north-centre disk however is continuing to develop and is the chief focus of the recent flare activity. This region has shown continued evolution of its intermediate spots, with a complex magnetic structure evident. It has recently developed a delta spot on its intermediary spot in the northwest.
There is one Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) currently in the forecast associated with a Moderate class flare on 02 April, with the risk of a glancing blow later on Day 2 (05 Apr) or possibly early on Day 3 (06 Apr).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed continued coronal hole fast wind influence initially, with the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from approximately 03/1500 UTC.
Solar wind speeds started the period Strong, slowly declining initially. CME arrival saw wind speeds increase to Very Strong, peaking at 858km/s at 03/1518 UTC, before steadily declining to fall to back to around 620km/s by the end of the period. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak initially, increased to a Moderate peak with CME arrival, before steadily declining back to Weak levels by the end of the period. The important north-south component, Bz, varying Weakly initially, saw some moderate southward values with CME arrival, but remained at Weak levels by the end of the period, generally southwards.
Geomagnetic activity initially had three G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Geomagnetic Storm intervals (Kp 5-6) following the CME arrival but has since decreased to Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4) as recorded by British Geological Survey (BGS).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels were above Background but below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar Activity is likely to remain generally Moderate, with further Moderate solar flares likely and a slight chance of Strong solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There is one Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) currently in the forecast associated with a Moderate class flare on the 02 April, with the risk of a glancing blow later on Day 2 (05 Apr) or possibly early on Day 3 (06 Apr).
Earth is currently under the declining coronal hole fast wind and the CME (from the arrival at around 03/1500UTC) influence. Speeds are expected to fall towards background levels by Day 4 (07 Apr), although the possible glancing arrival of the second CME lowers confidence.
Activity is expected to be Quiet to Active levels, although there remains a chance of G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Geomagnetic Storm intervals initially and should the second CME glancing blow occur later Day 2 into early Day 3 (05-06 Apr).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation remains above background levels but on a slowly declining trend. There is a slight chance of S1 solar radiation storm throughout the period.
Issued at:
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: