Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora may see some weak enhancements through the period, due to a mixture of glancing coronal mass ejection influence, and the potential for a spell of fast solar winds. However, this is low confidence, and any potential visibility is likely to be limited to the high geomagnetic latitudes, limiting any UK-based viewing to northern Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora may see some weak enhancements through the period, due to a mixture of glancing corona mass ejection influence, and the potential for a spell of fast solar winds. However, this is low confidence. Any potential visibility will also be limited to the higher geomagnetic latitudes, which have much reduced hours of darkness at this time of year, limiting any viewing.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate to High solar activity. Chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals days 1-3 (11-13 Dec).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with two Moderate class flares observed, peaking at 10/2208 UTC from the larger region in the southwest. This is the largest of the eight regions on the disc, along with another region nearby, which is now in close proximity. While these regions have shown signs of declining, this is perhaps partly due to the increasing viewing angle. The other regions are now generally smaller and simpler, with the most notable recent growth in the southeast, however this currently remains a simple bipolar spot.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The period started with weak ongoing coronal mass ejection influence followed by a more notable arrival around 10/2000 UTC. Speeds observed were mostly Background, before rising to Slightly Elevated with the second CME arrival. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak to Moderate, then rose to Strong after 10/2000 UTC peaking 11/0711 UTC. The north-south component was Weak to Moderate until 10/2000 UTC and predominately negative (southward). After 10/2000 UTC this component became Strongly negative (southward), then gradually rotated northward to become strongly positive. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp1-4) for much of the period, but with two G2 Moderate Storm (Kp6) periods between 10/2100-11/0300 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity at first, with Moderate-class solar flares expected and an ongoing slight chance of isolated Strong (X-class) solar flares. Activity likely easing through the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing but weakening coronal mass ejection effects continue, with further weak enhancements possible. Solar winds are expected to increase to Strong speeds due to the onset of coronal hole fast winds, most likely within the next 48 hours.
Quiet to Active Geomagnetic activity is most likely through the period, with a decreasing Chance of G1/Minor Storms and Slight Chance of G2/Moderate Storms, due to any combination of weak coronal mass ejection arrivals and the onset of the coronal hole fast winds in coming days.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background, but with a chance of further enhancement given any further notable flares, most likely from the larger region in the southwest.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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