Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate solar activity expected. Further G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms likely Days 2-3 (05-06 Jul), slight chance G3/Strong intervals end of Day 2 (05 Jul). Chance of S1/Minor radiation storms throughout.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been High with multiple Moderate-class flares observed in the last 24 hours, the largest at 03/1811UTC, from the region in the northwest. This region remains the largest spot on the disk and still shows a significant magnetic complexity, although its position near the west limb makes assessment difficult. Another large region, located in the southwest, is of a similar size but continues to decay, the recent magnetic complexity being no longer visible. A new active region is emerging on the southeast limb and is expected to develop further as more spots rotate into view. The other regions are comparatively small and simple.

A couple of CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejection) associated with the M6.7 and M6.3 flares from AR4479 and AR4478 have been analysed. The main bulk of the ejecta is expected to pass ahead of Earth’s orbit.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind measurements showed the arrival of another CME around 03/19:00 UTC. Solar wind speeds, which were already slightly elevated after an earlier weak CME, increased further and peaked at about 630 km/s around 04/03:20 UTC before settling to roughly 570–590 km/s. The number of particles within the solar wind continued to increase, reaching above average levels. The magnetic field became stronger after 03/20:30 UTC. Its important north–south direction became unstable after 03/19:00 UTC and turned mainly southward after 04/00:50 UTC, briefly reaching -19 nT around 04/04:16 UTC.

As a result, geomagnetic activity increased from quiet conditions to periods of moderate storming, with a short strong (G3) storm period between 04:03:00 and 04:06:00 UTC.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels, but with a recent slight increase, although levels remain well below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate activity is expected, with occasional Moderate-class flares and a slight chance of an isolated Strong flare. This risk declining slightly during the period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: CME influence continues to affect Earth, with elevated solar wind speeds expected to gradually decline from Day 1 into Day 2 (04–05 Jul). Further CMEs emitted on 01–02 Jul may result in additional arrivals during Days 2–3 (05–06 Jul), with the most significant event likely to overtake earlier ejecta and arrive around 05/16:00 UTC, although timing remains uncertain. No other CMEs feature in the forecast. A coronal hole in the south of the disc may contribute to the solar wind environment; however, its impact is expected to be negligible compared to the anticipated CME(s).

Geomagnetic activity is expected to reduce from Active, with a chance of G1/Minor storm conditions, to Unsettled on Day 1 (04 Jul). The CME anticipated later on Day 2 into Day 3 may bring intervals of G1-G2/Minor-Moderate storming and a slight chance of G3/Strong storm periods. Activity is then likely to be mostly Quiet for Day 4 (07 Jul), in the absence of any further CME activity.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently slightly enhanced, but well below the S1/Minor radiation storm level. There is a chance of reaching above the S1 level during this period.