Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms on Days 1 & 2 (08/09 May) due to coronal hole fast winds. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar Activity is currently Low, with occasional Common-class flares observed, and one Moderate-class flare at 07/1514 UTC from a region around the northeast limb. There are currently five sunspot regions on the earth facing disc. Sunspot regions in the southwest and southeast are the largest regions, though these are stable and relatively simple. Only one sunspot region appears to be growing, which is n the northwest of the disc, with some grown within central areas. The other regions are smaller and simple.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds, as observed by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 were generally at background levels, ranging from 320-370 km/s, but they had a sharp increase around 07/1530 UTC and then became Slightly Elevated at 380-420 km/s. Over the last few hours there has been a slow upward trend which suggest we are starting to see the influence of the fast winds of a coronal hole. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was weak at the start of the period, though this increased to Moderate around 07/1525 UTC and became Strong for a time around 07/1800 UTC. The north-south component was predominantly positive and weak, becoming moderate for time between 07/1600-1800 UTC.  Phi angle was variable first, then becoming generally negative (towards the sun) from around 07/0600 UTC. It then turned generally positive (away from the sun) from around 07/1345 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2) but became Active (Kp 4) from around 07/1800 UTC. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at Background. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue, with a chance of Moderate activity from isolated Moderate-class flares and a slight chance of Strong flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed leaving the south of the disk late 06 May, but this has been assessed as a miss.  L1 solar wind observations suggest that we are starting to see the fast wind enhancement from a coronal hole, with speeds expected to slowly increase through Day 1 (08 May) and reach 500-600 km/s. Solar wind speeds are then expected to decline from Day 2 (09 May), possibly reaching background levels by Day 3 or 4 (10 or 11 May). 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Active (Kp2-4, with a chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals (Kp 5). From Day 2 (09 May) activity is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels.