Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight Chance of G1/Minor storms Day 1 (20 Aug). Chance of Moderate-class flares throughout. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Moderate with three peak Moderate-class flares from a new sunspot region rotating around the east limb. 

There are currently four sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest region is approaching the western limb, which is becoming more difficult to analyse. This region has now become less complex, losing its small delta spot. The second largest sunspot region is currently rotating around the east limb, which is beginning to show some magnetic complexity. This region is currently difficult to analyse due to its viewing angle. The remaining two regions on the disc are small, stable and simple. 

No Earth directed CMEs were observed. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds as measured by L1 at SOLAR-1, were indicative of a fast wind regime, from two coronal holes, with speeds generally Elevated, peaking at 590km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, has been Weak. The north-south component, Bz, has been Weak. Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at Background. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is likely to be Low to Moderate, with a chance of further Moderate-class flares and a slight chance of a Strong flare, mostly from the new sunspot rotating around the east limb. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:  A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with a Common-class flare from 16 August may glance Earth on Day 1 (20 Aug), although is most likely to pass to the north. Earth has now connected to the fast wind from either of the two coronal holes on the disc, with ongoing Elevated winds expected, possibly reaching Strong levels. This combined with a possible CME glance on Day 1 (20 Aug) will give an ongoing chance of isolated G1/Minor Storm intervals. While there is some uncertainty regarding the coronal holes, the overall fast wind conditions are expected to continue into Day 2 (21 Aug), before showing signs of gradually easing from Day 3 (22 Aug). Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) overall, with a chance for periods of Active to G1/Minor Storm (Kp 4-5), mainly on Day 1 (20 Aug).  

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 > MeV proton flux is at background with only a slight chance of rising given any eruptive events from the disc.