Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Background space weather conditions are expected until the onset of fast winds from a coronal hole. This is most likely on 20 Oct (UTC), but could be as early as late on 19 Oct. It could then enhance the aurora from 20 Oct, leading to more widespread views across high latitudes. This will also bring the chance for some glimpses of the aurora further south, perhaps into northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Background space weather conditions are expected until the onset of fast winds from a coronal hole. This is most likely on 20 Oct (UTC), but could be as early as late on 19 Oct. It could then enhance the aurora from 20 Oct, leading to more widespread views across high latitudes. This will also bring the chance for some glimpses of the aurora further north, perhaps into southern New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 20:59 (GMT) on Sun 18 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated M-class flares. Chance of G1 Minor Storm days 2-3 (20-21 Oct)
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with one Moderate class flare observed, peaking at 19/0903 UTC from the region the southwest. This remains a moderately sized, but slowly declining region, as it moves towards the southwest limb. There are three regions on the disc, with the other regions including one now in the northwest, comprised of main leader spots and a more ragged collection of smaller trailer spots, and a further relatively small and simple bipolar region in the northeast.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were were Slightly Elevated at 450-500km/s at fist, but eased to be Background at below 400 km. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component was also Weak while favouring a northward orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles persisting at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with an ongoing chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Background solar winds at first, are expected to be followed by the the onset of the fast winds of a coronal hole, most likely day 2 (20 Oct), easing later day 3 or day 4 (21-22 Oct). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet (Kp 0-2) until this onset, then rising to Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) with a chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) intervals. Activity easing to Quiet to Unsettled by day 4 (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles expected to persist at Background.
Issued at: 12:12 (GMT) on Mon 19 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: