Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is a low likelihood of slightly increased geomagnetic activity Sunday into Monday, leading to a slight chance of visible aurora across the far north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
There is a low likelihood of slightly increased geomagnetic activity Sunday into Monday, leading to a slight chance of visible aurora at high geomagnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Strong flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with the strongest flare from the large region in the northwest. There are eight visible regions, with this being the only region of note. This is a magnetically complex region and while this is becoming harder to assess due to its location, maintains a strong delta-spot to the northwest of its trailer spot.
There are no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, showed no significant features. The wind speed was Slightly Elevated to Background, erratically easing from around 450km/s to just below 400km/s. Density was below or near average. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak at first, but strengthened to be Moderate. The north-south component was variable in direction and also strengthened to be Moderate. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) is at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is forecast, with further isolated Moderate-class flares from the large northwestern region. There remains a chance of activity becoming High with an isolated Strong (X-class) flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Current Slightly Elevated solar winds are expected to see a period of enhancement from CH22/- fast winds later on day 1 and into day 2 (09-10 Feb), [perhaps becoming Elevated at around 500-550 km/s. These easing later day 2 or day 3 (10-11 Feb). Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mainly Quiet at first, increasing to Unsettled to Active with a slight chance of G1 Minor Storms on day 2 (09 Feb) before easing back to be Quiet to Unsettled day by 3 (11 Feb).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at Background, but with a chance of rising above as a result of any notable flares from the large and complex sunspot region on the northwest disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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