Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast solar winds may bring some very limited enhancement to the aurora through the period. Up to two weak coronal mass ejections may also give a glance from late Saturday 06 Dec until Monday 08 Dec UTC, also bringing some slight enhancement, however these are low confidence. Any visibility is likely to remain limited to high latitudes, with a slight chance of being visible from the far north of Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast solar winds may bring some very limited enhancement to the aurora through the period. Up to two weak coronal mass ejections may also give a glance from late Saturday 06 Dec until Monday 08 Dec UTC, also bringing some slight enhancement, however these are low confidence. Any visibility is likely to remain limited to high latitudes, although this is low confidence. However, the reduced levels of darkness at this time year will restrict any potential for visibility.
Issued at:
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate Solar Activity expected. Slight chance G1 Minor Storms.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with only minor Common class flaring. There are seven regions on the disc. The most notable spot resides in the south near centre disk, which has a strong trailer spot, and a large number of smaller intermediates, although these do include a couple of small mixed polarity spots leading to some magnetic complexity. This is followed by another reasonably sized bipolar group, with a small mixed polarity spot within its intermediate portion. The other magnetically complex spot on the disc is in the northeast, and while much smaller and relatively simpler, this does have a history of eruptive Strong class flares. The remaining regions are generally small and stable.
A faint coronal mass ejection which left the Sun early 05 Dec appears to have possibly been in association with a weak eruption in the northeast around 05/0645UTC. This has a potential of arriving at Earth 08 Dec, though confidence is low.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the continuation of coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speed was generally Strong. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component was also Weak and variable. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active (Kp2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is expected, with isolated Moderate-class flares, and a slight chance of rising to High with an isolated Strong (X-class) flare. However there is a chance of activity to be Low at times.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak coronal mass ejection, from the southwest disc on 04 Dec, has a slight chance of glancing day 2-3 (06-07 Dec). Another faint coronal mass ejection which left the Sun early 05 Dec may also arrive at Earth, most likely on 08 Dec.
Ongoing fast winds from a coronal hole are expected at first, with speeds remaining Strong, before slowly declining to become Slightly Elevated, at 400-500 km/s, later in the period. However, further weak enhancements cannot be ruled out.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of Active intervals. A slight chance of G1 Minor Storms persists days 1-3 (06-08 Dec).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring. However, there is an increasing chance of this rising as a response to any significant flares from the sunspot regions across the southern disc.
Issued at:
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: