Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival is likely to arrive early on the 03 July, leading to an increase in potential visible aurora. However, any aurora is likely to be restricted to the northern parts of the UK and similar latitudes. Viewing opportunities will also be limited by any cloud cover and the short hours of darkness at this time of year.
Southern Hemisphere
A coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival is likely to arrive early on the 03 July, leading to an increase in potential visible aurora during the southern hemisphere UTC night. However, any aurora is likely to be restricted to southern New Zealand and similar latitudes.
Issued at: 21:19 (GMT) on Thu 2 Jul 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate to High solar activity likely. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrival is expected Day 1 (03 Jul), with Minor to Moderate storms expected. Further CME glances are possible Day 3-4 (05-06 Jul).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate over the last 24 hours with several Moderate-class flares, the largest at 02/0156 UTC from a large, complex bipolar region in the northwest. There are currently two other sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, both located in the southwest quadrant. One is another large, complex bipolar region. The other region in the southwest is smaller but has also shown some development and magnetic complexity.
Several Coronal Mass Ejections emitted on 01-02 Jul were analysed. These may bring the chance of glancing impacts at Earth on Days 3-4 (05-06 Jul).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds have been at Background and showed a gradual overall decline from near 400kms to 325km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was largely Weak, with the north-south component also largely Weak and mainly positive. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate to High activity is expected, with occasional Moderate-class flares expected and a slight chance of a Strong-class flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The 30 Jun CME is expected early Day 1 (03 Jul). Further CME's emitted 01-02 Jul may give more glancing impacts on 05-06 Jul.
Solar winds are currently at Background levels. The 30 Jun CME is expected to arrive early on Day 1 (03 Jul) with solar winds likely rising to reach Elevated, perhaps Strong levels, before gradually declining into Day 2 (04 Jul). Further CME's emitted 01-02 Jul may give more glancing impacts on 05-06 Jul, with some enhancement likely to solar winds.
Geomagnetic activity may begin mainly Quiet (Kp 0-2) Day 1 (03 Jul). However, the 30 Jun CME is likely to arrive early Day 1 (03 Jul), with geomagnetic activity likely to reach Active to G1/minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 4-5) with a chance of isolated G2 Moderate storm (Kp 6) intervals, and a slight chance of G3 Strong storm (Kp 7), if the CME is more impactful than anticipated. Activity is likely to gradually decrease on Day 2 (4 Jul). Further potential glancing CMEs may arrive on Days 3-4 (05-06 Jul) with geomagnetic activity possibly increasing again to reach G1-G2/Minor-Moderate storm levels.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to be at Background levels, but with a chance of reaching Minor-Moderate Radiation storming with any significant flares.
Issued at: 00:09 (GMT) on Fri 3 Jul 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: