Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor storms Days 1-3 (18-20 Aug), with a Chance of G2/Moderate storms initially on Day 1 (18 Aug). Chance of Moderate class flares. 

Chance of Moderate class flares. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with several low-level Common-class flares.

There are currently four sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The most complex region is in the western, central part of the disc. It has seen some growth in it's intermediate spots over the last few hours along with developing some spots of mixed-polarity.  The two smaller spots in the northwest have also seen some minor growth in recent hours.  The one remaining spot is smaller and more simple. 

No Earth directed CMEs were observed during this period. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1, showed some slightly perturbed conditions. This could be due to a very glancing blow from the expected CME in association with a filament eruption on 14 Aug, but this is low confidence. Solar wind speeds were mostly at background, starting at 300km/s, but erratically increased from around midday to finish the period at slightly elevated levels of 420km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was weak until around midday, at which point it became Moderate. The north-south component, Bz, was weakly variable, until around midday, at which point it became moderately variable, but favoured a negative direction to end this period. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity will most likely remain Low, however there is a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares, most likely from AR4507. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME (coronal mass ejection) associated with a filament eruption on 14 Aug may reach Earth early Day 1 (18 Aug). A second CME associated with a common class flare from a region in the west of the disc at 16/1928 UTC may deliver a glancing blow at Earth on Day 3 (20 Aug). Confidence for both these CMEs is very low. 

Coronal hole fast winds may arrive during this period, perhaps late on Day 1 (18 Aug), but more likely through Day 2 (19 Aug), before gradually declining through Days 3-4 (20-21 Aug). Solar wind speeds reached 700 km/s on last rotation, but there is significant uncertainty regarding possible speeds this time around. 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) until the possible CME arrival early Day 1 (18 Aug), at which point activity may increase to give Active/ G1 minor storm intervals and a slight chance of G2/Moderate geomagnetic storms. Activity may then wane until the onset of the HSS from CH87/- or CH88/- from later Day 1, or more likely through Day 2 (19 Aug), which along with glancing CME effects on Day 3 (20 Aug) keeps a chance of G1/Minor Storms through Day 2 and 3, before activity likely returns to mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels on Day 4 (21 Aug). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is likely to continue at background levels.