Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor storms Days 3-4 (11-12 June). Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares throughout.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low over the past 24 hours, with occasional Common-class flares. 

There are now eight regions on the Earth-facing disc. The largest region is in the northeast, and potentially the most complex although it is still difficult to analyse due to its location near the east limb. This region may yet prove the most active as it is showing some movement in its constituent spots. The second largest region is in the southeast, although it is magnetically straightforward. Two regions in the west are both in apparent decline, but this may be due to their proximity to the west limb. The remaining spots are smaller and simple.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery in the period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were slightly elevated, with a weak CME arrival at 09/0955 UTC. Wind speeds were slightly elevated between 400-500km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field was weak until the CME arrival when it jumped to moderate. The north-south component varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed with energetic particles near background.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to be Low to Moderate, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares and a very slight chance of a Strong flare.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The CME that emerged on 06 June arrived at 09/0955 UTC, but was slow and very weak. The current slightly elevated solar wind speeds are expected to continue through Day 1 (09 June), then start declining towards background on Day 2 (10 Jun). The next enhancement is expected to come from a coronal hole, currently at centre disc, potentially bringing wind speeds of around 650 km/s.

Geomagnetic activity is now likely to be Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4) on Day 1. Then activity should be mainly Quiet until the arrival of the fast winds on Day 3 or 4, when activity is likely to increase to become Unsettled to Active, with a chance of G1/Minor Storms (Kp 3-5).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: High energy proton flux is expected to remain close to background, although there is a slight chance of S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms if any notable flares occur.