Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Minor geomagnetic activity is possible during Sunday night. Aurora could potentially be visible across northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes. However, the current short hours of darkness will greatly limit views. Activity is then likely to decline through Monday before perhaps picking up again on Tuesday.
Southern Hemisphere
Minor geomagnetic activity is likely during Sunday night. Aurora could potentially be visible across the south of New Zealand and Australia, and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear. Activity is then likely to decline during Sunday.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Further Moderate-class flares are likely. Chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals due to persisting coronal hole fast wind throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate over the past 24 hours, with a peak Moderate-class flare observed at 14/2301UTC from the largest region in the southwest.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest region is also in the southwest and has seen some minor decay of its trailing spots. A region in the northwest has a north-south aligned magnetic field which could increase instability, which has shown some growth and consolidation within its intermediate portion.. A region in the northeast has continued to grow steadily in size and complexity, with a weak delta spot developing in its intermediate region. The remaining regions are currently small or comparatively magnetically simple.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind was indicative of a connection to a coronal hole fast wind. Solar wind speeds have been slightly elevated to elevated, ranging between 460-580km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was mostly weak. The north-south component was also weak and mostly northward orientated. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled (Kp2-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate, with further Moderate-class flares likely.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Earth has connected to the coronal hole fast wind in the southern hemisphere. Wind speeds may still reach 600-700 km/s as on previous rotation on Day 1 (15 Jun), then are likely to gradually decline to slightly elevated levels around 450 km/s during Day 2 (16 Jun), with perhaps a resurgence of the fast wind on Days 3-4 (17-18 June) from the same coronal hole.
No further Earth directed CMEs are currently expected.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4), with a chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals throughout the period, due to persisting coronal hole fast wind influence.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight chance of energetic particle enhancements exceeding the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold, mainly due to the more complex region in the southwest of the disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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