Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No significant enhancements to the auroral oval are expected until at least 21-22 July UTC when a coronal hole fast wind is likely to arrive. Minor enhancements are then possible, with a chance of aurora reaching northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes. However, the short hours of darkness at this time of year will limit any viewings.
Southern Hemisphere
No significant enhancements to the auroral oval are expected until at least 21-22 July UTC when a coronal hole fast wind is likely to arrive. Minor enhancements are then possible, perhaps with a chance of aurora becoming visible from the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 00:22 (GMT) on Sun 19 Jul 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Increasing chance of Moderate-class flares during the period. Increasing chance of G1/Minor Storms Days 3-4 (21-22 Jul).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with only Common-class flare activity observed. There are three sunspot regions on the visible disc. A region in the south-centre disc underwent some slight development and increase in magnetic complexity, however, remained largely inactive in terms of flares. A new, moderately sized region rotated over the northeast limb. It is difficult to confidently analyse at this stage, given significant foreshortening effects in available solar imagery.
No Earth-directed CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) were observed in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have have been at background. Wind speeds varied between 300-330 km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue, but with a slight chance of M-class flares (Moderate activity), mainly from the new regions on, or soon to rotate onto the northeast Earth-facing disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs are currently expected during the forecast period. Solar winds are slow, but may receive some minor enhancement to slightly elevated levels, on Day 1 (19 Jul). The main feature of interest is a large, recurrent coronal hole which may give wind speeds around 450 km/s on Day 3 (21 Jul), increasing to 700 km/s on Day 4 (22 Jul), although with some uncertainty in timing.
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled Days 1-2 (19-20 Jul), with an increasing chance of Active to G1/Minor Storm intervals during Days 3-4 (21-22 Jul) as the anticipated coronal hole fast wind arrives.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at background levels.
Issued at: 12:14 (GMT) on Sun 19 Jul 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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