Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A coronal mass ejection arrived at Earth around midday on 03 July. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase, with potential visible aurora later on 03 and early on 04 Jul. However, any aurora is likely to be restricted to the northern parts of the UK and similar latitudes. Viewing opportunities will also be limited by any cloud cover and the short hours of darkness at this time of year. The next enhancement is expected later on 05 or early 06 Jul from another coronal mass ejection arrival, though once again any aurora is likely to be restricted to the northern parts of the UK and similar latitudes during the short hours of darkness.
Southern Hemisphere
A coronal mass ejection arrived at Earth around midday UTC on 03 July. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase, with potential visible aurora on 03 and early on 04 Jul UTC. However, any aurora is likely to be restricted to the southern parts of New Zealand and similar latitudes. The next enhancement is expected later on 05 or early 06 Jul UTC from another coronal mass ejection arrival, though once again any aurora is likely to be restricted to the southern parts New Zealand and similar latitudes.
Issued at: 12:38 (GMT) on Fri 3 Jul 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate solar activity Likely. Coronal Mass Ejection influence is underway, with a Chance of Minor to Moderate Geomagnetic Storms. Further Coronal Mass Ejection glances are possible Day 3-4 (05-06 Jul).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity is on the decline, with a single Moderate class flare observed in the last 24 hours, at 02/2312 UTC, from the northwest. There are four sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The largest spot by a small margin resides in the southwest. It has begun to simplify, losing it's complex magnetic configuration. The spot in the northwest is closely the second largest region but with increasing complexity, due to multiple mixed polarity spots within the intermediate and trailing portions. The spot in the southwest approaching the limb has now begun to simplify, losing it's complex magnetic configuration. The new region in the southeast is small and simple.
No further significant Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were largely background until 03/1119 UTC when a coronal mass ejection was detected. Speeds were Background until 03/1119 UTC, then rose to Slightly Elevated. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly Weak until 03/1119 UTC, when it became Moderate. The north-south component was largely Weak and variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is Likely, with occasional Moderate-class flares expected and a slight chance of a Strong-class flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The coronal mass ejection from the Strong flare on 30 Jun has likely recently arrived at L1, as of 03/1119 UTC. Solar winds are now Slightly Elevated and may yet rise to Elevated before gradually declining into Day 2 (04 Jul). Further coronal mass ejections emitted 01-02 Jul may give more glancing impacts on Days 3 and 4 (05-06 Jul), with some enhancement to solar winds Likely.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active, with a Chance of G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Geomagnetic storms (Kp 5-6). Activity is likely to gradually decrease on Day 2 (4 Jul) back to Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3). Further potential glancing CMEs may arrive on Days 3-4 (05-06 Jul) with geomagnetic activity possibly increasing again with a Chance of G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Geomagnetic storm levels.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to be at Background levels, but with a chance of reaching Minor-Moderate Radiation storming should any significant flares occur.
Issued at: 12:21 (GMT) on Fri 3 Jul 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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