Space Weather Forecast Headline:   Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity:  Solar activity has been Low in the last 24 hours, with only a C1.2 flare at 04/1158 UTC. 

There are now six regions on the visible disc since a sunspot region has recently rotated round the western limb. The largest sunspot region is in the north-west area of the disc, and comprises a moderately large leader with a clustering of peripheral minor spots to the south and east. It has recently reduced in complexity.  A new sunspot region in the north-east of the disc has recently  rotated on the to the disc from the eastern limb. The remaining regions are relatively simple, small and possibly on a slight decline.

Two slow Coronal Mass Ejections were detected on 03 Aug, associated with filament eruptions, though after analysis both are expected to miss Earth.  Another two Coronal Mass Ejections were detected on 04 Aug, although there has been some difficulty analysing them due to lack of imagery. It is possible that these could give a glancing blow to Earth late morning (UTC) on Day 4 (08 Aug), which could enhance geomagnetic activity. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with regards the likelihood and timing of this.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds were background to slightly elevated at 350-450 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was generally Moderate, though it did reduce to Weak from 04/0900 UTC. The north-south component, Bz, was initially negative (southward), but then largely became neutral or positive (northward) from around 04/1000 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10MeV) proton flux was background. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low solar activity is expected to continue with a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: In the absence of any geoeffective coronal holes or Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections, solar wind speeds are expected to reduce to Background on Day 1 (05 Aug), though Enlil suggests they could increase to Slightly Elevated on Day 4 (08 Aug) due to a possible glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejections . Geomagnetic activity is likely to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3), although there is a small chance it could increase on Day 4 (08 Aug) due to a possible glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection or connection to Coronal Hole. This is very low confidence. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to continue at Background.