Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

The greatest chance of high geomagnetic latitude enhancement in this 72-hour period is during Saturday night UTC, with a non-recurrent fast wind due that may see enhanced auroral displays for high latitudes as far south as northern Scotland. A further enhancement is possible on late on Sunday 13 or early Monday 14 September, with the arrival of a weak coronal mass ejection and another coronal hole fast wind, which again may allow enhanced auroral displays in northern Scotland.

Southern Hemisphere

The greatest chance of high geomagnetic latitude enhancement in this 72-hour period is during Saturday night UTC, with a non-recurrent fast wind due that may see enhanced auroral displays for high latitudes as such as southern New Zealand. A further enhancement is possible on late on Sunday 13 or early Monday 14 September, with the arrival of a weak coronal mass ejection and another coronal hole fast wind, which again may allow enhanced auroral displays in southern New Zealand.

Issued at: 15:28 (GMT) on Sat 12 Sep 2026

Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 into UTC weekend and into new UTC working week.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity is Very Low, with no significant recent flare activity.  

There are currently seven sunspot regions on the disc, none of which are particularly complex. The most complex region is in the northwest sector of the visible disc, and has a beta configuration but is showing some fading of intermediate spots. There is a new region which is located in the far west of the visible disc. This along with a region on the western limb are expected to shortly rotate off the visible disc. 

No Earth directed CMEs were observed during this period. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1, were Slightly Elevated at 400-420km/s for most of the period, and has now gone down to background around 12/0930 UTC.  The IMF, Bt, was Weak, with the north-south component, Bz, oscillating weakly between positive and negative. Geomagnetic activity was  Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at normal background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar Activity is Expected to remain Low to Very Low, with isolated Common-class flares likely and a slight chance of Moderate-class flares through this period. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The geomagnetic forecast is of low confidence, due to a non-recurrent coronal hole and then a possible Coronal Mass Ejection arriving on Day 3 (14 Sep).

All considered, there is a Chance of G1 from a small coronal hole early Day 1 (12 Sep), and then a Slight Chance of G1 from a different coronal hole and any minor Coronal Mass Ejection effects at the very end of Day 2 (13 Sep) and into Day 3 (14 Sep). Any enhancement gradually waning on Day 4 (15 Sep).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is now at background, and generally expected to remain at background.

Issued at: 12:24 (GMT) on Sat 12 Sep 2026

Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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