Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity has eased with auroral viewings unlikely initially. An uptick in activity is possible during Wednesday 25th March due to a glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection that left the Sun on 22 March, however this is low confidence. Should this occur, auroral sightings are likely across the north of Scotland, with a chance of sightings across central and southern parts of Scotland and similar geomagnetic longitudes. The chances of auroral displays then reduces from Thursday 26 March onward.
Southern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity has eased with auroral viewings unlikely initially. An uptick in activity is possible during Wednesday 25th March UTC due to a glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection that left the Sun on 22 March, however this is low confidence. Should this occur, auroral sightings are most likely across the south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic longitudes. The chances of auroral displays then reduces from Thursday 26 March onward.
Issued at:
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Geomagnetic Storms possible due to glancing coronal mass ejection arrival Day 1 (25 March). Chance of R1/Minor Radio blackouts throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity has been Low, peaking C7.2 at 24/1754 UTC from near the new region on the northeast limb. Eight sunspot regions are currently visible on the solar disc. One region may depart the southwest limb in the next 12 hours. The largest spot resides in the northeast, with moderate size and magnetic complexity. The new region is currently rotating around the northeast limb, though only partially visible at present. The remaining regions across the disc are generally simple or exhibiting minor decay.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were visible in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a gradual easing connection to coronal hole fast winds. Speeds were strong, easing to elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak. The north-south component varied weakly, though favoured a negative (southward) orientation. The resultant geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to continue Low, with a Chance of an isolated Moderate-class flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There is a chance of a coronal mass ejection glancing blow on day 1 (25 Mar). Otherwise, a slow decline from coronal hole fast winds is expected until a possible connection to the next coronal hole fast winds is possible on day 4 (28 Mar).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Active (Kp2-4) through the period. Should the arrival of the coronal mass ejection occur on day 1, geomagnetic activity could increase to Active-G1/Minor storm (Kp4-5), with a chance of G2/Moderate storms (Kp6). On day 4 (28 Mar), there is a slight Chance of G1/Minor storm intervals, should Earth connect to the fast winds of CH34/+.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected given the relative lack of significant regions and subdued flare activity.
Issued at:
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: