Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Background levels are expected through the period. There is a very slight chance of a CME arrival later on Monday. While this is most likely to miss, if there is an arrival, aurora could briefly become visible from the far north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Background levels are expected through the period. There is a very slight chance of a CME arrival later on Monday. While this is most likely to miss, if there is an arrival, aurora could briefly become visible from the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: No significant activity
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity is Low with only small C-class flares observed. There are five sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The new small bipolar region near the eastern limb has numbered AR4387, this region appears to be magnetically simple, although further details will become clear as it moves further onto the disc. All other regions are stable and magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed (Coronal Mass Ejections) CMEs were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A connection to the fast wind of CH29 was observed. Solar wind speeds, as observed by ACE at L1, eased erratically from Strong at first to be Elevated. Density was below average. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), Bt, was mainly Weak though did occasionally achieve Moderate levels around 9nT. The north-south component remained Weak between +8/-7nT, and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Very Low activity is expected with a slight chance rising to Moderate due to isolated M-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME from a filament eruption at 06/0230 UTC is expected to miss behind and below Earth's orbit, but may give a weak glance either late day 1 or day 2 (09-10 Mar). Otherwise ongoing fast wind conditions from CH29/- are expected to ease to Background slow wind conditions later day 1 or day 2 (09-10 Mar). Unsettled to Active geomagnetic activity is expected to become mainly Quiet to Unsettled with a decreasing chance of Active intervals later day 1 (09Mar) onward. There is a slight chance of G1 Minor Storms on days 1 and 2 (09-10 Mar) should the CME mentioned above glance Earth.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no solar radiation storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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