Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storming and R1/Radio Blackouts throughout.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, peaking at 24/0903 UTC. There are currently eight sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest sunspot is in the west, though appears relatively stable. There is a cluster of three modestly sized spots in the northwest, with limited magnetic complexity but each with intermediate spots. The remaining spots reside in the east, all of which are small and simple and mostly showing signs of decay.

There were no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections observed during the period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind observations suggested possible early influence from fast winds. Solar wind speeds were slow-ambient, but rising, peaking at Slightly Elevated at 24/1033 UTC. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field started Weak, but rose to Moderate levels, peaking at 24/0600 UTC. The north-south component followed a similar trend, though initially positive, then becoming largely negative after 24/0345 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was largely Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3) with a single Active interval (Kp 4) to end the period. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be Low or Very Low, with a Chance of becoming Moderate should any isolated Moderate-class flares occur.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections currently feature in the forecast period. Earth has now connected to coronal hole fast winds, with solar wind speeds peaking briefly at Slightly Elevated, but will likely peak Elevated later Day 1 or Day 2 (24-25 Sep). The next coronal hole fast winds, with wind speeds peaking Elevated once again, is most likely on Day 3 (26 Sep). Either a relatively smooth transition between high speed streams is possible, or a brief dip in wind speeds between the peak of each fast wind.

Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) Geomagnetic activity is expected at first, rising to likely Active (Kp 4) intervals, with a chance of G1/Minor Storms (Kp 5) and a slight chance of G2/Moderate storm (Kp 6) intervals on Day 1 (24 Sep). A chance of isolated G1/Minor Storms (Kp 5) then continues from Day 2 to Day 4 (25-27 Sep) due to residual fast winds from the first coronal hole, followed by the next fast wind enhancement.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms are expected.