Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Some enhancement of the auroral oval is possible on the UTC evening of Thursday 27 Nov due to coronal hole fast winds. Aurora sightings may be possible across the north of Scotland and similar longitudes at times. Following this, the aurora is expected to return to background levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Some enhancement of the auroral oval is possible on the UTC evening of Thursday 27 Nov due to fast winds from coronal hole fast winds. Aurora sightings may be possible across south of New Zealand South Island and similar longitudes at times. Following this, the aurora is expected to return to background levels.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Day 1 (27 Nov). Chance of Moderate-Class flares (R1/Minor Radio Blackouts), with a Slight chance of Strong-class flares Days 3-4 (29-30 Nov). Slight chance of S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storms.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with isolated Common-class flares. There are five sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest and most magnetically complex resides in the southeast. The remaining spots are mostly simple and appear largely stable.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters showed influence from coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were Strong. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component was Weak and highly variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low solar activity is forecast to continue Days 1-2 (27-28 Nov), with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare. Flare probabilities are gradually increased through Days 3-4 (29-30 Nov) to account for the anticipated return of a region which was highly active on its last rotation, with a chance of isolated Moderate class flares and a slight chance of Strong class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are currently no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections forecast. Solar winds remain at Strong levels associated with coronal hole fast winds. Solar winds are expected to ease through Days 1-3 (27-29 Nov) back to Slightly Elevated levels, perhaps reaching background levels by Day 4 (30 Nov).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) with a Chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) intervals and a Slight Chance of an isolated G2/Moderate Storm interval Day 1 (27 Nov), before reducing to a Slight Chance of G1/Minor Storms on Day 2 (28 Nov). Day 3 (29 Nov) should then see a return to Quiet (Kp 0-2) conditions.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) saw some minor enhancement on the 26 Nov, likely due to far sided activity. There is a Slight, but increasing, chance of proton flux approaching the S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storm levels
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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