Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be at mostly background levels, as ongoing fast solar winds ease. No other enhancements are currently forecast, with Aurora sightings unlikely away from high latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be at mostly background levels, as ongoing fast solar winds ease. No other enhancements are currently forecast, with Aurora sightings unlikely away from high latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with an isolated Moderate-class flare, peaking at 25/1559 UTC from the southeast limb. There are currently two sunspots on the visible disk. One near the northeast limb appears simple at present but is potentially the lead portion of a returning region that was the source of a number of Strong-class flares on the previous rotation. Another spot resides near the southeast limb, though appears small and simple at present. Once again this may be part of a more complex region yet to rotate fully into view.
No clear Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery, though there is ongoing analysis of a possible lift off near centre disk early on 25 Feb, though this is proving problematic due to lack of clear evidence in imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed ongoing coronal hole fast winds. Wind speeds were Elevated. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength was weak, with the north-south component also weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are currently no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections in the forecast. Ongoing coronal hole fast winds are expected to gradually and erratically ease through the period, to be near Background by day 4 (01 Mar).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 2-3) with a chance of isolated Active (Kp4) intervals.
Solar winds are currently Elevated due to the easing fast winds and expected to gradually and erratically decline towards Background by day 4 (28 Feb). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 2-3) with a chance of isolated Active (Kp4) intervals, mainly day 1 (25 Feb).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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