Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be largely background early Monday UTC with limited sightings expected. There is a chance of up to three glancing coronal mass ejections later Monday, Tuesday then Wednesday respectively. There is therefore a chance of visible aurora to northern Scotland and similar latitudes on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights UTC, where skies are clear during the limited hours of darkness.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be largely background early Monday UTC with limited sightings expected. There is a chance of up to three glancing CMEs later Monday, Tuesday then Wednesday UTC respectively. There is therefore a chance of visible aurora across the far south of New Zealand south island and similar latitudes on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights UTC, where skies are clear during the limited hours of darkness.
Issued at: 01:07 (GMT) on Mon 18 May 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic storm intervals days 2 and 3 (19 and 20 May). Chance of isolated R1/Minor Radio Blackouts throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Moderate following an M1.4 flare at 17/0339UTC from a region beyond the northwest limb. More recently, a C9.7 flare was observed at 17/2053UTC from AR4436.
There are seven sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest resides in the northwest, primarily consisting of a large positive lead spot and with little overall change. The bipolar region in the north east has shown the most recent development, with further growth and spreading of the lead and trailing spots. The remaining regions in the northeast and southeast are relatively small, stable and largely simple.
A complex coronal mass ejection, with at least two clear lift-offs was observed leaving the north of the disk after 1600UTC on 16 May. Modelling has been completed, with the bulk of ejecta expected to pass above Earths orbit, although with glancing impacts possible on 19 and 20 May.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were indicative of slowly waning coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were at Strong levels, 600-730 km/s, gradually reducing to Elevated, 540 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field has been Weak throughout, with the north-south component was Weak and variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at or near background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to be generally Low, but with a chance of Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are up to three coronal mass ejections which may give Earth glancing effects on 18, 19 and 20 May respectively.
Solar wind speeds are expected to be mostly influenced by the ongoing but gradually waning coronal hole fast winds through the period. Solar wind speeds are currently Elevated (around 540 km/s), but on an erratic, slowly decreasing trend which is expected to continue, perhaps reaching Background to Slightly Elevated levels from day 3 (20 May).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be largely Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3). There is a Chance of Active (Kp 4) intervals and a Slight Chance of isolated G1/Minor storm intervals due to residual fast winds and Slight Chance of a glancing CME on day 1 (18 May). There is then a Chance of G1/Minor storm intervals and a Slight Chance of G2/Moderate Storm intervals due to glancing CME effects days 2 and 3 (19-20 May).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.
Issued at: 00:15 (GMT) on Mon 18 May 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: