Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate-class X-ray flares. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with Common-class flares observed in the past 24 hours. There are currently eleven sunspot regions on the visible disc. Of most interest are two clusters of spot regions both located in the southeast disc. The westernmost of these consists of two regions, one of which is of moderate size, showing some slow growth particularly in its intermediate portion, although has a relatively simple magnetic structure at present. The other is a stable unipolar spot region. The second clustering of regions lies further east and consists of four regions. These all appear to be relatively simple regions at present, however. The remaining spot regions are small and simple. A new region has emerged in the northwest, which is a simple bipolar region. 

A narrow and slow CME was seen travelling towards the southeast, likely from the cluster of spots in the far southeast of the disc. This CME has been analysed, and is considered to be missing below Earth's orbit. 

A high-end Common-class flare from a simple region in the southeast may potentially produce a CME, although awaiting coronagraph imagery for analysis. This may be contaminated by a far-sided CME, which occurred at a similar time. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed either some weak coronal hole or CME influence. Wind speeds initially varied between 400-420km/s, before increasing to reach a peak of 459km/s at 26/1918UTC, before declining to around 400km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak to Moderate. The north-south component varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation briefly rose just above the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold following a far sided eruptive event, but has now fallen below S1 and remains on a declining trend.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: There is an increasing chance of isolated M-class flares, initially most likely from the various spots in the southeast disc, but with an increasing component from far side region(s) rotating onto the east limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs currently feature in the forecast, although a recent CME is currently being analysed. The solar wind is currently experiencing minor disturbance, with slightly elevated wind speeds, either due to a weak CME or early onset of CH59/-. CH59/- and then CH58/- in the southern hemisphere are expected to provide minor enhancements in the coming days, with wind speeds perhaps reaching up to 500 km/s.

Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected at first, but activity is likely to become Unsettled to Active with coronal hole influence, most probably on Days 1-2 (27-28 May), with a slight chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels are declining after a recent brief enhancement due to a far side eruption. Radiation levels are most likely to remain at background levels for the rest of this period.