Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Two CMEs (coronal mass ejections) may give glancing effects later on 14 Jul, or during 15 Jul. These may enhance aurora over northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes on Tuesday night and Wednesday night UTC. However, any aurora sightings are likely to be limited by short hours of darkness.
Southern Hemisphere
Two CMEs (coronal mass ejections) may give glancing effects later on 14 Jul, or during 15 Jul. These may enhance aurora over southern New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes on Tuesday night and Wednesday night UTC.
Issued at: 21:58 (GMT) on Mon 13 Jul 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of Moderate solar activity. Slight chance of G1 Geomagnetic Storms Day 1 and 2 (14 and 15 July).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity is Low with only isolated Common-class flares observed. There are now three sunspot regions visible on the solar disc, with AR4485 now rotated over the western limb. The remaining spots are now all relatively simple, with AR4482 being the largest and appears to continue to show some slight decay amongst its trailing spots.
No Earth-directed CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were observed in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a waning high speed stream accompanied by glancing CME. Winds speeds were slightly elevated, initially around 460km/s but have now since declined to near 410km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was weak until around 13/1549 UTC, at which point it became Moderate. The north-south component, Bz, started weak and variable, but became predominately weakly negative (towards the sun) from 13/0800UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Mostly Low or Very Low, but with a Chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares (Moderate activity).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Two CMEs originating from AR4485 on the 12 July are expected to give glancing blows at Earth later on Day 1 (14 Jul), or during Day 2 (15 Jul), possibly arriving as a single event. Except for these glancing CMEs, fast winds are expected to continue to decline through this period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled through much of the period. Active intervals, with a Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic storms are possible Days 1-2 (14-15 Jul), due to possible glancing CME arrivals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at Background levels.
Issued at: 00:08 (GMT) on Tue 14 Jul 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: