Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Background space weather conditions are expected until 20 Oct (UTC), with any auroral visibility remaining limited and restricted to the highest latitudes. The onset of the fast solar winds could then enhance the aurora from 20 Oct, leading to more widespread views across high latitudes. This will also bring the chance for some glimpses of the aurora further south, perhaps into northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Background space weather conditions are expected until 20 Oct (UTC), with any auroral visibility remaining limited and restricted to the highest latitudes. The onset of the fast solar winds could then enhance the aurora from 20 Oct, leading to more widespread views across high latitudes. This will also bring the chance for some glimpses of the aurora further north, perhaps into southern New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 18:17 (GMT) on Sat 17 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. Chance of G1 Minor Storms Day 3 (20 Oct)
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with occasional Common-class flares, peaking with a C6.0 flare from AR4551 at 16/1914 UTC.
There are two sunspot regions. The largest region is in the southwest, which continues to see a weakening trend, with fading of its intermediate spots. However this remains a potentially potent spot, with a strong persistent leader spot and further activity cannot be ruled out. The region in the northeast, has seen some recent development with an increase in areal extent. It continues to undergo dynamical changes with an increase in its small intermediate spots, as well as waxing and waning of some of its more southern spots.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as measured by SOLAR-1 at L1, were near background conditions. Solar wind speeds were Slightly Elevated, generally between 410-480 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was generally Weak, though did become Moderate for a few observations between 17/1442 UTC and 17/1905 UTC. The north-south component, Bz, varied between postive and negative, favouring a northward (positive) orientation. However, it did become mostly southwards (negative) for a time between 17/1324 UTC and 17/1849 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 0-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 >10MeV proton flux has been at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is expected with an ongoing chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Slightly elevated solar winds are expected to ease towards Background until the onset of the fast winds of the next coronal hole, most likely Day 3 (20 Oct). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet (Kp 0-2) until this onset, then rising to Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) with a chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 >10MeV protons are expected to persist at Background.
Issued at: 00:16 (GMT) on Sun 18 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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