Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A coronal mass ejection (CME) which arrived early on 16 Jan may enhance geomagnetic activity Friday night into Saturday, with a slight chance of aurora sightings in the far north of Scotland and similar latitudes, where skies are clear. Meanwhile, another coronal hole fast wind is expected to arrive on 17 Jan, which is likely to bring some further enhancement over the weekend. Aurora sightings will be mainly at high latitudes, but with a chance of reaching northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Another coronal hole fast wind is expected to arrive on 17 Jan UTC which may bring some minor enhancement over the weekend. Aurora sightings will be mainly at high latitudes, perhaps with a chance from the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear. Sightings may be limited by the short hours of darkness at this time of year.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate solar flares. Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storms on Days 1 and 2 (17-18 Jan).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity was Low, peaking with a Common-class flare at 16/0909 UTC from a region in the southeast.
There are nine sunspot regions on the visible disc. In the southeast, is the largest and most magnetically complex region. In the south central disc, is the second largest region which has continued to develop, and is of similar magnetic complexity to the aforementioned region. Near the northeast limb, there is a region with a moderately large lead spot and some small trailing spots. Other spots are small and mostly stable.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed early on the 15th, most likely far-sided, from the northwest. It has been analysed as likely missing Earth, but with a small chance of a weak glancing blow on Day 1 (17 Jan).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were initially around 550km/s before increasing to Strong, peaking near 730km/s at 16/1010 UTC, likely due to a transient Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) which left the Sun on the 16 Jan. Winds then declined to Elevated, near 580km/s. Winds increased again, to around 730km/s at 16/1725UTC and are now declining slowly. The Magnetic Field, was Moderate throughout, due to the aforementioned transient CME feature. The north-south component, Bz, varied Weakly initially, increasing to Moderate, and has been mostly Weak since 16/1830UTC. It has been predominately positive (northward) orientated. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4). There were G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) intervals between 16/1500UTC to 16/1800UTC and 16/2100UTC to 17/0000UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be mostly Low, but with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds are likely to gradually decline to Elevated or Slightly Elevated levels during Day 1 (17 Jan) after the arrival of a transient Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on 16 Jan. The next feature is the onset of a new fast wind from connection to a coronal hole, likely later on Day 1 (17 Jan). Based on the previous rotation, wind speeds are expected to remain Strong or possibly Very Strong, reaching around 800 km/s.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled on Day 1 (17 Jan), with an initial Chance of Active, and a Slight Chance of G1/Minor Storm. Then activity is expected to increase to become Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4), with a chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) intervals and a Slight Chance of G2/Moderate Storm intervals late on Day 1 (17 Jan) and during Day 2 (18 Jan). Activity is expected to decline to become Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 2-3) on Day 3 (19 Jan).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently at Background levels and expected to remain so in the absence of significant flare activity.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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