Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Mainly background aurora conditions are expected on Friday and Saturday (04-05 Sep UTC). Later on Sunday and through Monday, a solar wind enhancement, coupled with a low confidence, very weak and glancing Coronal Mass Ejection, could give a modest enhancement to the aurora. This could bring some limited aurora visibility to northernmost latitudes, perhaps as far south as the far north of Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
Mainly background aurora conditions are expected on Friday and Saturday (04-05 Sep UTC). Later on Sunday and through Monday, a solar wind enhancement coupled with a low confidence, very weak and glancing Coronal Mass Ejection, could give a modest enhancement to the aurora. This could bring some limited aurora visibility to southernmost latitudes, and perhaps allowing some visibility from the far south of New Zealand.
Issued at: 14:31 (GMT) on Fri 4 Sep 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Likelihood of Moderate class flares, slight chance of isolated Strong class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with one Moderate solar flare at 04/0753 UTC from a new sunspot region near the northeast limb. Three are seven active region on the visible disc. These regions are relatively small and simple, however a couple of these regions in the northeast have shown of small mixed polarity spots near their main previously unipolar spot. The new spot that produced the Moderate-class flare, also showed some limited growth, while another new region on-limb region nearer the solar equator appears to be a large, but simple unipolar spot.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1 were indicative of the slow wind. Solar wind speed persisted mostly at Background at 370-430km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was generally Weak. The north-south component varied Weakly, favouring a southward orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) at geostationary orbit was at Background. No Solar Radiation Storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate Activity is likely with further isolated Moderate flares and a slight chance of an isolated Strong (X-class) flare, most likely from the new regions on or coming around the northeast limb.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak CME from 02 Sep may give a slight enhancement on passing either later day 3 or day 4 (06-07 Sep), although confidence is low. A coronal hole is also expected to bring faster solar winds through a similar period, although confidence is low on timing and strength. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet (Kp0-2), likely increasing to Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) on days 3-4 (06-07 Sep), with a chance of an isolated Minor storm/G1 (Kp5) intervals, most likely on day 4 (07 Sep).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The number of energetic particles (high energy proton flux) is forecast to remain at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms expected.
Issued at: 12:06 (GMT) on Fri 4 Sep 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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