Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Solar winds are likely to be slightly elevated on 21 Oct due to a weak connection to the fast winds from a coronal hole. This will bring the chance for some glimpses of the aurora, perhaps into northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes. Any activity easing on 22 Oct.
Southern Hemisphere
Solar winds are likely to be slightly elevated on 21 Oct due to a weak connection to the fast winds from a coronal hole. This will bring the chance for some glimpses of the aurora, perhaps into south New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes. Any activity easing on 22 Oct.
Issued at: 14:07 (GMT) on Wed 21 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated M-class flares. Slight Chance of G1 Minor Storm day 1 (21 Oct).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with occasional C-class flares observed. There are three sunspot regions on the visible disc. All three are relatively large regions, but are showing little in the way of magnetic complexity, major growth or activity.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of mostly slow winds, before a weak connection to coronal hole fast winds. The solar wind speeds were mostly at background, rising a couple of times to reach Slightly Elevated levels due to the weak coronal hole connection. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak to Moderate. The important north-south component was also Weak to Moderate. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp1-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles persisting at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with an ongoing chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Overall, solar winds are expected to remain at or close to Background levels, with some weak influence from a coronal hole fast stream expected on day 1 (21 Oct), which may see Slightly Elevated or Elevated solar wind speeds. Any increase in solar wind speeds is expected to ease by day 2 (22 Oct).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled on day 1 (21 Oct), with a Chance of Active intervals and a slight chance of a G1/Minor Storm interval should any further influence from CH04/+ arise. Activity then expected to be mostly Quiet for much of the forecast period, with a slight chance of a further enhancement later on day 4 (24 Oct).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles expected to persist at Background.
Issued at: 12:14 (GMT) on Wed 21 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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