Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Aurora activity is expected to be at or near background levels until later 04 Feb or 05 Feb, when a forecast glancing coronal mass ejection impact brings the potential for increased geomagnetic activity. This brings the chance of potential aurora sightings for parts of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, given clear skies.
Southern Hemisphere
Aurora activity is expected to be at or near background levels until later 04 Feb or 05 Feb, when a forecast glancing coronal mass ejection impact brings the potential for increased geomagnetic activity. This increases the likelihood of potential aurora sightings for the south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, given clear skies.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Likelihood of further Strong solar flares in the coming days. Likely G1/Minor, Chance of G2/Moderate Geomagnetic Storm intervals from later on Day 1 (4 Feb) into Day 2 (5 Feb) with glancing coronal mass ejection impacts.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been High, with a Strong-class flare at 03/1408UTC from the large region in the northeast which has dominated solar activity.
There are nine active regions on the visible disc. The dominant active region is the large and magnetically complex region in the northeast disc, which continues to exhibit multiple delta formations, one of which has a north-south magnetic shear line. This region is now showing signs of a slight spreading trend, with a slight reduction in overall areal extent. Remaining sunspot regions are much smaller and magnetically simple at this time, contributing little to the overall flare activity.
A complex coronal mass ejection observed following the Strong flare at 01/2357UTC from the region in the northeast disc. Analysis indicates potential glancing impact either second half of 04 Feb or 05 Feb, with the possible earlier arrival due to a southerly lobe which appears faster than previously thought. No other significant Earth-directed CMEs observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed background conditions. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component, weak and variable, but mostly southward directed until 03/1830UTC then northward. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained at background levels with no Solar Radiation storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate to High activity is expected to continue, with a likelihood of further Strong solar flares from the large, complex sunspot region in the northeast.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Analysis of the coronal mass ejection from the Strong solar flare at 01/2357UTC from the large, complex sunspot region in the northeast disc indicates a potential glancing impact either second half of 04 Feb or 05 Feb.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet initially on Day 1 (04 Feb), however during the second half of the UTC day and into Day 2 (05 Feb) a glancing CME impact is possible. During Day 2 this could be combined with the potential for faster wind influence from CH19. This brings a risk of increasing geomagnetic activity through Days 1 and 2 (04 and 05 Feb), Likely reaching G1/Minor Storm intervals, with a chance of G2/Moderate Storm intervals and a slight chance of higher levels, before activity is expected to gradually wane through Day 3 (06 Feb).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is near background levels. The solar flare risk from the large AR4366 sunspot region brings a increasing chance of exceeding the S1/Minor radiation storm level into the period.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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