Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see a slight enhancement late on Saturday or more likely on Sunday (UTC) due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some brief glimpses from the far north of Scotland, and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see a slight enhancement during the southern hemisphere Sunday night due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some glimpses from far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Peak Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 over current UTC weekend.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity has remained low, with the peak x-ray flare a mid-ranking Common-class flare observed at 27/0301UTC from a region in the northeast.
There are now up to eight sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the Sun, with one rotating off the southwestern solar horizon. The main changes observed in the period were seen in some of the larger occupants of the Sun, with perhaps the most noteworthy being in the north centre of the Sun, showing proliferation and spreading in its trailing spots.
There were several events of interest for potential Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the period. Firstly, a small flare and CME around 27/1000UTC from a region in the southeast. This event produced a clear CME in imagery although with no Earth-bound component evident from analysis. At 27/1100UTC, there was a north centre 'disappearing filament' (arc of plasma), however no subsequent ejecta was visible, and it may have been reabsorbed. At 27/1830UTC, there was a narrow CME observed heading mainly northeast from a region in the northeast. Imagery is awaited from this event. Finally, a minor CME was seen leaving the vicinity of the recently departed group on the southwestern solar horizon, with no effect anticipated at Earth.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed an ongoing steady decline from the fast wind from a 'coronal hole'.
The solar wind speed fell through slightly elevated levels in the period. The number of particles in the solar wind rose slightly within normal background. The magnitude of the magnetic field was steady within background, with a gradually changing north-south component.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was for provisionally quiet geomagnetic activity throughout.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is likely to be low, but with an ongoing chance of isolated Moderate-class x-ray flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CMEs feature in the forecast. The current fast wind should soon fade with no further significant geomagnetic activity, however a second coronal hole fast wind should arrive within the current UTC weekend to give a Chance of Minor Goemagnetic Storm G1, easing into the new UTC working week. Geomagnetic activity should be most reliably quiet to start and end the four-day period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected given the lack of significant regions and activity on the disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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