Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor storms days 1-2 (19-20 Aug). Chance of Moderate-class flares. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Moderate with peak flare of Moderate-class flare at 19/1851 from a new sunspot region near the east limb. There are seven sunspot regions on the visible disc. One recently rotated over the western limb, and another is very close to the western limb and will rotate off the visible disc soon. The largest region, in the western part of the disc, has a small delta-spot configuration within it's intermediate spots.  A new region has recently rotated over the eastern limb, and will need to be reassessed when a better viewing angle is established. All other sunspot regions are small and simple.

No Earth directed CMEs were observed. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds as measured by L1 at SOLAR-1, showed the onset of a fast wind, likely from a coronal hole. They have been generally Elevated at around 550-600 km/s, with a peak of 630 km/s at 19/0520 UTC.  Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, started Moderate, and quickly became Weak from around 19/0300 UTC. The north-south component, Bz, has been Weak and varying between positive and negative.  Geomagnetic activity was Active to G1/Minor Storm (Kp 4-5) between 19/0000 UTC and 19/0900 UTC, when it reduced down to Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at Background. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is likely to be Low, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:  A Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the C8.2 flare from 16 August may glance Earth on Day 1 (20 Aug), although is most likely to pass to the north. Earth has now connected to the high speed stream of a coronal hole, with ongoing fast winds expected. It is also possible we may see connection to another coronal hole, perhaps leading to a prolonged period of Elevated to Strong solar winds. This combined with a possible Coronal Mass Ejection glance on Day 1 (20 Aug) will give an ongoing chance of isolated G1/Minor Storm intervals. While there is some uncertainty regarding the coronal holes, the overall fast wind conditions are expected to continue into Day 2 (21 Aug), as supported by MOSWOC Enlil, before showing signs of gradually easing from Day 3 (22 Aug). Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) overall, with a chance for periods of Active to G1/Minor Storm (Kp 4-5), mainly on Day 1 (20 Aug).  

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 > MeV proton flux is at background with only a slight chance of rising given any eruptive events from the disc.