Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A glancing arrival of the tail-end of the Coronal Mass Ejection from 30 Mar was observed around midday Wednesday (UTC), with ongoing influence perhaps bringing some slightly enhanced aurora to some northernmost geomagnetic latitudes. The main potential for observable aurora from northern Scotland or similar geomagnetic latitudes will be from the onset of fast solar winds. This could occur from late Wednesday but is most likely on Thursday and overnight into Friday.
Southern Hemisphere
A glancing arrival of the tail-end of the Coronal Mass Ejection from 30 Mar was observed around midday Wednesday (UTC), with ongoing influence perhaps bringing some slightly enhanced aurora to southernmost latitudes. The main potential for observable aurora from southern New Zealand, Tasmania or similar geomagnetic latitudes will be from the onset of fast solar winds. This could occur from late Wednesday but is most likely on Thursday and overnight into Friday.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storms expected with onset of fast winds, most likely day 1 (02 Apr).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with Common class flares observed. There are ten regions on the Earth-facing disc. There are three regions of note. Previously active region in the southeast continues to display an interesting structure above the spot, though the spot itself remains relatively simple in terms of its magnetic polarity structure and visible appearance. The previous growth trend observed within the region in the north-centre disc, has seemingly plateaued. The spot in the east, has seen some development, now with increased magnetic complexity and a continued slight growth trend.
No clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections have been observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The anticipated coronal mass ejection associated with the Strong flare on 30 Mar, gave a small enhancement at 01/1130 UTC. Solar wind speeds were Background until the arrival of the 30 Mar coronal mass ejection, rising to Slightly Elevated. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength was Weak but jumped to Moderate to Strong after the coronal mass ejection arrival. The north-south component became Weak to briefly Moderate. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at background levels with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is likely to be Low with occasional Common-class flares, with a chance of rising to Moderate, and a slight chance of rising to High.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No further Earth directed coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast. Ongoing weak coronal mass ejection influence is expected at first, followed by the anticipated connection to coronal hole fast winds. Based on the location of this feature, and an anticipated Strong fast wind, onset would be most likely on day 1 (02 Apr), and given the time of year and the location of this feature, a strong connection is favoured.
Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of Active conditions are expected at first, followed by likely G1/Minor Storm geomagnetic activity, with a chance of G2 Moderate Storms, most likely on day 1 (02 Apr) from fast wind effects. This activity likely easing by days 3 and 4 (04-05 Apr) to become mainly Quiet to Unsettled with Active intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) is expected to remain at Background with no solar radiation storms occurring, but with a slight chance of rising in response to any notable solar flares that occur.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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