Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds will give minor enhancements of the auroral oval on 09-10 July UTC. As a result, aurora may become visible from northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes. Activity is likely to reduce later on 10 July UTC, but a potential CME arrival 11-12 July UTC may give further aurora over Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes. However, observations are likely to be limited by short hours of darkness.
Southern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds will give minor enhancements of the auroral oval on 09-10 July UTC. As a result, aurora may become visible from the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes. Activity is likely to reduce later on 10 July UTC, but a potential CME arrival 11-12 July UTC may give further aurora over southern New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 19:52 (GMT) on Thu 9 Jul 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate solar activity. Chance of G1 Day 1 (10 Jul), becoming likely Days 2-3 (11-12 Jul).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate over the past 24 hours, with one Moderate-class flare at 09/0227 UTC. There are five sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. The largest is located in the southeast of the disc, however the magnetic complexity has significantly reduced. A region in the southwest has shown some growth in the past 24hrs, with a slight increase in magnetic complexity. The remaining regions are small and magnetically simple.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed starting at 09/0713 UTC. This has been assessed as mostly passing ahead of and below Earth's orbit, but a glancing blow is possible late Day 2 or perhaps early Day 3 (11-12 Jul). No other Earth directed CMEs were seen in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the onset of coronal hole fast winds. Wind speeds were initially near background, around or below 400km/s, but erratically rose to become strong around 600 km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly moderate, but is now weak. The north-south component varied moderately and was mostly southward directed. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp1-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Mostly Low activity is likely, but with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares, from either of the two larger regions on the disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun at 09/0713 UTC is mostly passing ahead of and below Earth's orbit, but a glancing blow is possible late Day 2 or perhaps early Day 3 (11-12 Jul). Solar wind speeds are now elevated to strong, due to the expected coronal hole fast winds. This is expected to continue into Day 1 (10 Jul), gradually easing into Day 2. However, the possible CME arrival could prolong elevated wind speeds for much of this period. A further coronal hole may bring some slight enhancements to the solar wind around the time of any CME arrival, however, this is also low confidence.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4), with a chance of G1/Minor storm intervals (Kp5) on Day 1, before activity declines into Day 2. Any CME arrival may increase activity once again late Day 2 into Day 3 with Unsettled to G1/Minor storm conditions and a slight chance of a G2/Moderate storm interval (Kp6). Geomagnetic activity then easing again into Day 4 (13 Jul).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to remain at background levels.
Issued at: 00:13 (GMT) on Fri 10 Jul 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: