Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No significant space weather activity is expected with aurora sightings unlikely.
Southern Hemisphere
No significant space weather activity is expected with aurora sightings unlikely.
Issued at: 12:28 (GMT) on Fri 16 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight Chance of Isolated Moderate-class Flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, peaking with a common-class flare 15/1555 UTC. There are three regions on the disc. The largest and most complex region resides in the southwest. This region continues to evolve, with a complex magnetic structure and increase in length and penumbral area. However, despite these changes the region has remained relatively inactive. The modestly sized spot in the northeast has continued to grow in length and penumbral area, with a moderately complex magnetic structure now evident. The small, weak and simple, spot in the southwest is on a slight decline as it approaches the western limb.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a waning coronal hole fast winds, with Elevated speeds at first falling to Slightly Elevated. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component fluctuated between Weakly positive and negative. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisting at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue with a Slight Chance of rising to Moderate.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth directed coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast. The waning fast wind is expected to reach Background levels later Day 2 or Day 3 (17-18 Oct). The next fast wind enhancement is expected to arrive later Day 4 (19 Oct) or more likely 20 Oct, reaching Elevated levels. However, a corotating interactive region may occur Day 4 (19 Oct).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3), with a slight chance of Active (Kp4) intervals early Day 1 (16 Oct). From Day 2 (17 Oct) mainly Quiet (Kp0-2) conditions are expected. However, Day 4 (19 Oct) geomagnetic activity may increase Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4), with a slight chance of a G1/Minor (Kp5) geomagnetic storm.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is only a slight chance of Solar Radiation Storms through the period, with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) expected to persist at Background.
Issued at: 12:16 (GMT) on Fri 16 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: