Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora may see some weak enhancements on Saturday night (UTC), due to a mixture of glancing coronal mass ejection influence, and the potential for a spell of fast solar winds. However, this is low confidence, and any potential visibility is likely to be limited to the high geomagnetic latitudes, limiting any UK-based viewing to northern Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora may see some weak enhancements on Saturday night (UTC), due to a mixture of glancing corona mass ejection influence, and the potential for a spell of fast solar winds. However, this is low confidence. Any potential visibility will also be limited to the higher geomagnetic latitudes, which have much reduced hours of darkness at this time of year, limiting any viewing.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor storms, mainly day 1 (13 Dec) due to on-going CME effects and the arrival of a coronal hole fast wind.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate, with two Moderate-class flares observed in the past 24 hours, originating from the large sunspot region near the southwest limb. There are currently six sunspot regions on the visible disc, with the majority in decline. The large region in the southwest is due to rotate off the disc in the next 12 hours. A region in the southeast continues to show signs of growth and magnetic complexity and will continue to be monitored for further development. The new region on the east limb is small and simple.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed leaving the southwest quadrant of the disc following the aforementioned Moderate-class flare, which has been analysed as missing Earth.
A slow CME associated with a prominence eruption was observed lifting off the southeast limb of the disc. This is currently being analysed for any Earth-directed component.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing CME influence continued through this period, after the arrival on 10 Dec. Another CME arrived later on the 12 Dec. Solar wind speeds were mostly Slightly Elevated ranging between 400-500km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Moderate, before increasing to Strong levels at 12/2100 UTC. The north-south component was predominantly southward throughout the period following the CME arrival. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4), with a G1/Minor Storm interval (Kp5) 12/1800-2100 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected at first, with isolated Moderate class flares likely and an ongoing slight chance of isolated X-class flares. Activity then easing as from later day 1 (13 Dec) as the large region in the southwest move over the limb and onto the far-side.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing but weakening CME effects continue, with further weak enhancements possible on day 1 (12 Dec). This is likely to be followed by a connection to the fast wind from a coronal hole, most likely on day 1 (13 Dec) with a solar winds likely increasing to be Elevated to Strong. Quiet to Active geomagnetic activity is likely at first, but rising to be Active to G1 Minor Storm if any further CME influence is observed, along with the onset of the fast winds. Activity easing through days 2 and 3 (14-15 Dec), becoming mainly Quiet to Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background, but with a chance of further enhancement given any further notable flares, most likely from the larger region in the southwest.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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