Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The combination of possible glancing blows from weak coronal mass ejections and a slightly enhanced solar wind is likely to lead to occasional weak enhancements of the auroral oval. Aurora may be visible, where skies are clear, at high latitudes including northern Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
The combination of possible glancing blows from weak coronal mass ejections and a slightly enhanced solar wind is likely to lead to occasional weak enhancements of the auroral oval. Aurora may be visible, where skies are clear, at high latitudes during the limited hours of darkness.
Issued at:
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1 Minor Storms likely day 2 (11 Jan) from Coronal Mass Ejection arrival.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with only a few Common-class flares observed, the strongest of which was from the largest of the three regions on the visible disc. This is located in the southeast disc, and has remained relatively stable through this period, maintaining a small but tenuous mixed magnetic polarity spot ('delta spot'). The other regions are smaller and simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the ongoing influence of a coronal hole. The observed speeds rose from Slightly Elevated, at near 400km/s at 09/0430 UTC to be Elevated at 500-550km/s by 09/0820 UTC, then persisted at this level. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly Moderate, but peaked Strong, before gradually and erratically easing to be Background by 09/2100 UTC. The north-south component was also Background to Moderate, and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is expected with only a slight chance of Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: CME from 08 Jan is likely to give a glancing impact early on day 2 (11 Jan). Otherwise current coronal hole sourced solar winds are expected to gradually ease, before a further re-enhancement is possible on day 4 (13 Jan). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of Active intervals, but increasing to Active to G1/Minor Storm with a chance of G2 Moderate Storms with any CME arrival, or Active to G1/Minor Storm later on day 4 (13 Jan) from an re-enhancement to the solar wind.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at Background.
Issued at:
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: