Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is likely to be visible during Wednesday night over the north of the UK and similar magnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is likely to be visible during Wednesday night over the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Issued at: 01:40 (GMT) on Tue 25 Aug 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: R1/Minor Radio Blackouts likely. Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm Day 3 (27 Aug).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate over the past 24 hours with five Moderate-class flares from the large and complex region near the centre disc, the largest peaking at 25/1002 UTC.
There are currently four sunspot regions on the visible disc. The aforementioned region near the centre disc remains the most notable due to its magnetic complexity, with two clear delta spots. The other regions are relatively simpler with little to no activity observed at this point.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the last 24 hours. Coronagraph imagery is awaited as to whether the Moderate flare at 25/1002 UTC has produced an Earth-directed CME.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a slow regime. Speeds were stable and around 330-360 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was a little above normal background levels, but below the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is forecast, with further Moderate-class flares likely from the large region near centre disc. There remains a slight chance of Strong-flares from this region.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth directed CMEs currently in the forecast. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain slow on Days 1 and 2 (25-26 Aug), before the arrival of increased solar winds, likely on Day 3 (27 Aug).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain largely Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3). However, activity is likely to become Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) into Day 3 (27 Aug), with an increasing chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals (Kp5) once the anticipated faster winds arrive.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a generally increasing slight chance of solar radiation reaching above the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold through the period, however an increased risk is forecast for Day 1 (25 Aug) due to the recent Moderate flare from the large region near centre disc.
Issued at: 12:19 (GMT) on Tue 25 Aug 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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