Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate class flares. Minor Geomagnetic Storm likely Day 1 (28 Aug), chance of Moderate Storm.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low over the past 24 hours, with only Common class flares. There are six regions on the visible disc. A moderately sized group in the northwest has been the most complex, but continues tor educe in size and complexity. The largest region on the disc is also in the northwest and has become longer in recent hours. The remaining spots are smaller and magnetically simple, including a NEW region in the southeast. 

No significant Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were seen in available imagery over the last 24 hours.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1, were indicative of a slow wind. Solar wind speeds were at background levels, below 300km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mainly weak but did become Moderate at the end of the period. The north-south component mainly varied weakly, but did become moderately southwards to end the period. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was near background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is expected to remain Low, with a slight but increasing chance of isolated M-class flares over the coming days.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: At least two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from 25 Aug may reach Earth, along with a third, much lower confidence CME. The first two are likely to give a glancing, but potentially combined, impact on Day 1 (28 Aug), with any enhancement from the third perhaps prolonging CME influence into Day 2 (29 Aug). A solar wind enhancement is still expected, arriving early Day 1, potentially peaking with speeds 450-500km/s. There are significant uncertainties regarding the onset of coronal hole fast winds and this may influence the timings of the aforementioned CMEs, potentially resulting in later-than-expected arrivals and reducing confidence in the short-term geomagnetic forecast.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet (Kp0-2) initially, before becoming Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4), with G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) intervals likely. There is a Slight Chance of G2/Moderate storm (Kp6) intervals upon any CME impact. Activity then likely to continue into Day 2 before gradually waning into Days 3 and 4.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to continue at background levels, but with a slight chance of solar radiation reaching S1/Minor Radiation Storm.