Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be near background levels initially. Enhanced solar winds are expected to arrive later today or perhaps early Saturday 14 March. This brings a chance of aurora being visible Friday night from the far north of Scotland and other high latitude locations, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be near background levels initially. The next enhanced solar winds are expected to arrive later in the current UTC day or perhaps early Saturday 14 March. This brings a chance of aurora being visible during the southern hemisphere Friday and Saturday nights from the far south of New Zealand and other high latitude locations, where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Days 1 and 2 (13-14 Mar).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity has been Low with only Common class solar flares observed. There are currently seven sunspot regions visible on the Earth‑facing disc, most of which appear to be largely magnetically simple and/or small. However, two regions are moderately sized, one approaching the northwest limb and the other near the southeast limb, but they are also magnetically simple, despite the region in the northwest showing slight growth through the period.
Late in the period a long filament, lying across the south centre disc, was seen to be in the process of lifting off from the Sun. At time of issue an associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was just emerging in imagery, which may have an Earth directed component.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds an ongoing weakly turbulent Slightly Elevated flow. The strength of the solar wind's magnetic field was weak, with the important north-south component also weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low solar activity is likely to continue, but with an ongoing slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs currently feature in the forecast, although the CME from the filament eruption in the south centre potentially has an Earth directed component. Analysis will confirm this once sufficient imagery is available. Solar winds are expected to gradually decrease from initial Slightly Elevated levels to reach Background levels today (13 Mar), ahead of the arrival of an enhanced solar wind associated with a coronal hole feature. This is most likely to arrive later today, perhaps early Day 2 (14 Mar), with some uncertainty in timing. Speeds are expected to rise to Strong levels before then declining to Slightly Elevated to Elevated levels through Days 3 and 4 (15-16 Mar).
Predominantly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected at first. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Unsettled to Active during Days 1 and 2 under fast wind influence from a coronal hole feature, with a chance of Minor Storms. Through Days 3 and 4 (15-16 Mar) geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease to Quiet to Unsettled levels.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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