Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Glancing coronal mass ejections followed by a coronal hole high speed stream bring a daily chance of enhancing the auroral oval, with sightings possible across Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes where skies are clear between 12-14 Oct.
Southern Hemisphere
Glancing coronal mass ejections, followed by a coronal hole high speed stream bring a daily likelihood of enhancing the auroral oval, with sightings possible across southern New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes where skies are clear between 12-14 Oct UTC.
Issued at: 02:01 (GMT) on Mon 12 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms throughout. Chance of R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with several common-class flares. There are six sunspot regions on the visible disc. The most complex is in the northwest. It retains significant magnetic complexity although is now reducing in size. The newer region near the southeast limb is now the largest. It appears to have a simple, bipolar structure at present. The remaining regions are small and simple, with a new small and simple region having rotated around the northeast limb.
A coronal mass ejection was observed on 10 Oct, associated with the Moderate-class flare from the complex spot in the northwest. This coronal mass ejection was a wide and fast, directed ahead and above Earths orbit. A possible glancing blow is most likely on Day 1 (12 Oct).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated waning CME influence. Solar wind speeds were Strong initially before easing steadily back to Elevated levels. Density started around Average, then erratically eased back to below Average. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Strong, then erratically fell back to Moderate, then Weak due to waning CME effects. The north-south component, Bz, was generally northward directed (positive). It started Moderate becoming Weak after 11/0900UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Active (Kp 4) initially before easing to Quiet to Unsettled (Kp2-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation has been at mostly background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with a chance of further M-class flares and a slight chance of X-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME was observed on 10 Oct, associated with the M6.4 flare from AR4549. This CME may give a glancing blow on Day 1 (12 Oct).
Solar wind speeds are currently Elevated . Solar wind speeds should relax back to Slightly Elevated during Day 1 (12 Oct) . The next significant coronal hole high speed stream is due from CH02/-. This is expected to arrive later Day 1 (12 Oct), or Day 2 (13 Oct). Speeds from this coronal hole are expected to reach Elevated to Strong levels, though due to its negative polarity, it is not favoured for significant geomagnetic enhancement at this time of year.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp2-3) initially. However, further enhancements are likely during Day 1 (12 Oct), due to possible combined arrivals of the 10 Oct CME and the HSS of CH02/-, Active to G1/Minor storms (Kp5) are Likely, with a Chance of G2/Moderate intervals (Kp6) and a Slight Chance of an isolated G3/Strong (Kp7) storm interval. Through Days 2 and 3 (13-15 Oct), there is a reducing Chance of G1/Minor Storms (Kp5) and Slight Chance of G2/Moderate Storms (Kp6). By Day 4 mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight chance of S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storms throughout the period.
Issued at: 00:11 (GMT) on Mon 12 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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