Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor storms Likely Days 2-3 (11-12 June). Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares throughout.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low over the past 24 hours, with frequent Common-class flares. 

There are currently ten regions on the Earth-facing disc, of which seven are numbered. A region in the northeast is the largest and most complex, with a small delta spot now apparent. A region in the southeast is the second largest region, although it is magnetically straightforward. The remaining regions are smaller and magnetically simple. Most regions are stable or have shown limited changes, but one new region in the northwest has emerged over the past 24 hours, and has developed into a small Csi/beta-gamma.

A CME was seen leaving the Sun in the northwest around 09/1557 UTC. Analysis is on-going, but the CME is not expected to be Earth-directed. Another CME was seen leaving the Sun, after a Common class flare from a plage region in the southwest. Once sufficient corongraph imagery is available analysis will be undertaken, as this later CME has a much greater potential of having an Earth directed component.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were slightly elevated, with a weak CME arrival at 09/0955 UTC. Wind speeds were slightly elevated between 400-500km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field was weak until the CME arrival when it jumped to moderate. The north-south component varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed with energetic particles near background.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to be Low to Moderate, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares and a slight chance of a Strong flare.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The CME that emerged on 06 June arrived at 09/0955 UTC, but was slow and very weak. The current slightly elevated solar wind speeds are expected to decline towards background through Day 1 (10 Jun). The next enhancement is expected to come from a coronal hole feature currently near centre disc, potentially bringing wind speeds of 650-700 km/s, and arriving later Day 2 (11 Jun). Solar wind speeds are expected to decline to elevated levels either later Day 3 (12 Jun) or through Day 4 (13 Jun).

Geomagnetic activity is expected to start at Quiet to Unsettled levels then decline through Day 1 (10 Jun) to become mainly Quiet until the arrival of the fast winds. Then activity is expected to increase to become Active to Minor Storms, with Minor Storms Likely late Day 1 into early Day 2 (11 Jun). Through Day 4 (13 Jun) activity is expected to decline to become Quiet to Unsettled.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: High energy proton flux is expected to remain close to background, although there is a slight chance of S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms if any notable flares occur.