Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity is now easing with auroral viewings likely confined to the far north of Scotland (and similar geomagnetic latitudes) initially on Tuesday night. An uptick in activity due to a glancing blow from a CME (coronal mass ejection) that left the Sun on 22 March may then occur during the early hours of 25 March UTC, however this is low confidence. The chances of auroral displays then reduces for Wednesday night onwards.
Southern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity is now easing with auroral viewings likely confined to the far south of New Zealand (and similar geomagnetic latitudes) initially on Tuesday night. An uptick in activity due to a glancing blow from a CME (coronal mass ejection) that left the Sun on 22 March may then occur during the early hours of 25 March UTC, however this is low confidence. The chances of auroral displays then reduces for Wednesday night onwards.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G2/Moderate storms Day 2 (25 March).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity has been Low, with only common class flares observed.
There are currently up to seven sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the Sun, none of which are currently showing any significant complexity.
No Earth-directed CMEs were visible in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as observed by ACE at L1, showed a gradual easing connection to coronal hole fast winds. Speeds were elevated to strong, ranging from around 550-650km/s, on a gradual, but erratic, declining trend. The IMF was weak. The north-south component of the field varied weakly, though favoured a southward orientation. The phi angle was negative (towards the Sun) throughout.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was mainly Quiet to Active (Kp2-4) , with two period of G1/Minor solar storms at 23/1500UTC and 23/1800UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to continue Low, with a Chance of an isolated M-class flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are two main components to the geomagnetic forecast - the current declining fast wind and then a possible glance from a CME (coronal mass ejection) early Day 2 (25 Mar).
Overall geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Active (Kp2-4) on Day 1 (24 Mar) with a chance of G1/Minor geomagnetic storms either in association with the declining fast winds, or perhaps an earlier than anticipated arrival of the aforementioned CME. Upon arrival of the CME, geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to primarily Active-G1/Minor storm levels, with a chance of G2/Moderate storms and a slight chance of G3/strong storms. Geomagnetic then expected to decline to mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels by Day 3 (26 Mar).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected given the relative lack of potent regions and subdued flare activity.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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