Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Earth is currently seeing fast solar winds. However, any enhancement to the aurora and its associated visibility is likely to remain limited to high geomagnetic latitudes, and only giving a slight chance of limited glimpses into the far north of Scotland. Activity should recede as the period evolves.
Southern Hemisphere
Earth is currently seeing fast solar winds. However, any enhancement to the aurora and its associated visibility is likely to remain limited to high geomagnetic latitudes. Given the reduced hours of darkness at this time of year, any potential viewings will remain unlikely. Activity should recede as the period evolves.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Falling slight chance of Minor geomagnetic storm (G1).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity has been Low, with only Common-flares observed, the largest of these at 24/1021UTC from a sunspot region in the northeast, although no obvious Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was in evidence. The background flare trace rose through the 24 hours to move comfortably into Common-class.
There are up to eight regions on the Earth-facing side of the Sun at present. The main groups on the disc include that responsible for most recent flares in the northeast, which showed little change. A region near centre-disc was perhaps the most complex, with a compressed appearance but a late trend towards becoming more open.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed ongoing influence from a 'coronal hole' fast wind. The solar wind speed was strong throughout, while the number of particles in the wind and their associated magnetic field were both at background.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was a gradual decline to become more reliably quiet with time.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: There is a daily chance of isolated Moderate-class flares that may rise slightly from Friday 26 December, as a result of the progressive return of previously large active regions over the eastern solar horizon.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CMEs feature in the forecast. Coronal hole fast winds are expected to now slowly decline from current strong levels. Geomagnetic activity is expected to become more reliably quiet into the UTC weekend, with a surviving slight chance of Minor geomagnetic storm over the Christmas period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a gradually rising slight chance of S1 solar radiation storms as the front sided cohort of sunspot regions moves into a more favourable position to connect with Earth - should they flare appropriately.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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