Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at predominantly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible Saturday night into Sunday due to a combination of fast solar winds and the potential of a glancing coronal mass ejection. However, any visible aurora will likely be limited to northern Scotland and similar latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible during the southern hemisphere Saturday night into Sunday due to a combination of fast solar winds and the potential of a glancing CME (coronal mass ejection). However, any visibility will likely remain limited to high latitudes such as New Zealand's south island.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Likelihood of Moderate class flares. Chance of Minor Storms Day 2 and Day 3 (25-26 Apr)
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been High, with two strong-class flares and several Moderate-class flares, all from a large region in the northwest, the peak being a strong flare at 24/0813UTC.
There are six sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest and most complex is in the northeast which continues to show signs of growth, however may be starting to show signs of simplification. The most active region is in the northwest which also displays some moderate complexity, but is becoming difficult to analyse as it approaches the western limb. The remaining regions are smaller and comparatively magnetically simple.
CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were seen originating from the large area in the far northwest in association with strong and moderate class in the past 24 hours. Relevant imagery is still awaited to conduct a proper analysis, but none at this stage are expected to have had an Earth directed component.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds have now declined to background levels around 390 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was Weak, with the north-south component variable in direction and also Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate to high activity is expected, with a likelihood of occasional M‑class flares and a slight chance of further isolated X‑class flares. Flare probabilities decreased from Day 3 (26 Apr).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A minor solar wind enhancement is then expected, from a connection to a small and narrow coronal hole feature, most likely arriving later on Day 2 (25 Apr), with solar winds increasing to Slightly Elevated levels. A CME (coronal mass ejection) associated with a moderate flare at 23/0459UTC from the large region in the northwest may give a glancing blow at Earth during the morning of the Day 3 (26 April), but this is currently low confidence. Day 4 (27 Apr) solar winds are expected to return to Background levels.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet (Kp 0-2) with a chance of Unsettled (Kp 3) intervals. Activity increases to become Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4), with a chance of G1/Minor Storms (Kp 5) with any fast wind onset later on Day 2 (25 Apr), with further G1/Minor storms intervals are possible with any glancing CME impact on the Day 3 (26 Apr). Through Day 4 (27 Apr) geomagnetic activity is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled again.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to continue at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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