Space Weather Forecast Headline:  Slight chance of isolated G1/Minor geomagnetic storms at first on day 1 (03 August). Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: 

Solar activity has been Low in the last 24 hours, with a C1.4 flare recorded at 03/1133 UTC.

There are currently six regions on the visible disc. Two areas are located in close proximity in the north centre disc. The largest sunspot region, located in the central western part of the disc comprising a moderately large central spot with a clustering of peripheral minor spots to the south. These are showing some waxing/waning development with a possible very weak delta configuration evident in one of the spots. The smaller region just to the northeast of this, has reduced in size and complexity, becoming unipolar in recent imagery. The region in the central southern part of the disc, has shown some development, with a spot in the east of the sunspot region increasing in size. The remaining regions are relatively simpler, smaller and largely stable.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections were observed in the available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: 

The 30 July CME arrived at L1 around 02/1130UTC. Solar windspeeds, as observed by SOLAR-1, increased through the afternoon of the 2 August to peak at 439km/s at 02/1717 UTC. winds persisted around 400km/s  until around 03/0200 UTC when they dropped below 400 km/s to become around 370-390km/s. Since then they have generally been similar, just going above 400km/s for a short period around 03/0600 UTC.

Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, has generally been Moderate, although it did briefly peak at Strong at 02/1455 UTC. From around 03/0400 UTC there has been a slow decline, becoming Weak to Moderate. The north-south component, Bz, has generally been negative (southward), with a period of positive (northward) between around 02/1900 UTC to 02/2300UTC, and another positive (northward) period between 03/0500 UTC and 03/0700 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was in the range Unsettled to G1/Minor storm (Kp 3-5) until 02/2100 UTC, but has been Quiet since then.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation:

GOES18 high energy (>10MeV) proton flux returned to background, after recent enhancements. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity:

Low solar activity is expected to continue with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: 

Due to the Coronal Mass Ejection arriving on 30 July there is a slight chance of isolated G1 Minor storms possible on Day 1 (03 August), before geomagnetic activity eases to mainly Quiet, with isolated Unsettled intervals. A further Coronal Mass Ejection from the southeast disc on 31 July is expected to miss Earth, but there is an outside chance of a weak glancing impact. No other Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections are currently expected.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation:

GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to continue at Background with no further enhancement currently forecast..