Space Weather Forecast Headline: Generally quiet Space Weather conditions initially, then Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storming on Days 3 and 4.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, peaking with a low level common class flare at 20/2234 UTC from near centre disk.. There are now six sunspot regions on the visible disc. One in the north centre disk, currently the most significant spot, with a rapidly developing, increasingly complex magnetic structure. Although currently of modest size due to lack of any significant leading or trailing region, a proliferation of spots has occurred throughout the region, with a delta configuration forming within the northern intermediate portion. Both of the regions in the far east of the disk, one in the southeast and another in the northeast, have developed bipolarity, with moderately sized leading portions followed by smaller trailing regions. The other regions are currently small and simple.

There were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed during the period. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a waning connection to coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were slightly elevated easing to slow-ambient. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed, with proton flux levels remaining background.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to remain Low or Very Low, with a Slight Chance of becoming Moderate.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections currently feature in the forecast period. Solar winds are expected to be largely Slow-Ambient speeds until day 3 (23 Sep). Thereafter, wind speeds should become Elevated from the next coronal hole fast winds, which is currently anticipated to occur either later on day 3 (23 Sep) or on day 4 (24 Sep).

Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be mostly Quiet throughout the start of the period, with a slight chance of isolated Unsettled intervals. From later day 3 (23 Sep) or early day 4 (24 Sep), due to the onset of coronal hole fast winds, Active (Kp4) intervals are Likely, with a Chance of G1/Minor Storms (Kp5).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected through the period.