Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A solar wind enhancement is expected to arrive later Day 1, bringing the chance of visible aurora to northern Scotland and similar latitudes through Friday UTC night, where skies are clear and during the very limited hours of darkness. Some enhanced aurora may persist Saturday UTC night, but aurora levels are expected to fall back to background levels from Sunday.
Southern Hemisphere
A solar wind enhancement is expected to arrive early during the southern hemisphere Saturday. This brings the chance of visible aurora to the far south of New Zealand and similar latitudes during the southern hemisphere early hours of Saturday but more likely during the southern hemisphere Sunday night, where skies are clear. After this the auroral oval is expected to decline to background levels.
Issued at: 01:05 (GMT) on Fri 15 May 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Reducing chance of isolated Moderate-class solar flares. Minor storm intervals Likely Days 1 and 2 (15 and 16 May).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Low over the past 24hrs, with occasional Common class flaring observed, peaking at 14/1840 UTC from near centre disk. There are currently three sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest region is in the northern hemisphere near centre disc. It continues to exhibit some small peripheral spots to the southeast of the main spot, though is close to simplifying to an unipolar group. There are two regions in the northwest both magnetically simple with little recent change.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24hrs.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds displayed largely background conditions until the arrival of coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were initially near background then rose to briefly Strong levels, peaking at 15/1110 UTC. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly Weak before rising to Moderate after 15/0300 UTC. The north–south component followed a similar trend, while favouring a positive (northward) direction until 15/1000 UTC, when it then favoured a negative (southward) direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1–3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to continue generally Low, but with a chance of Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast period. Solar wind speeds are expected be influenced by coronal hole fast winds for much of the period. Speeds have already reached Strong, with a similar wind speed expected for days 1 and 2 (15 and 16 May), then slowly declining days 3 and 4 (17 and 18 May). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) with likely G1/Minor storm intervals (Kp 5) and a slight chance of G2/Moderate storms (Kp 6). These conditions will persist into Day 2 (16 May) before returning to mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels (Kp 1–3) during Days 3 and 4 (17 and 18 May).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.
Issued at: 12:02 (GMT) on Fri 15 May 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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