Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
An enhanced solar wind has reached Earth during 30 April UTC, bringing a chance of slightly elevated auroral activity at first. Aurora sightings may be possible Friday night from the far north of Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes, where skies are clear during the limited hours of darkness. Chances of visible aurora quickly diminish through the rest of the period.
Southern Hemisphere
An enhanced solar wind has reached Earth during 30 April UTC, bringing a chance of slightly elevated auroral activity at first. Aurora sightings may be possible during the southern hemisphere Friday night from the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated M-class flares. Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storms early on Day 1 (1st May).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with Common-class flares observed. There are currently nine sunspot regions on the visible disc, of which six are numbered. Of these a region in the northwest, approaching the limb, is the largest region with the greatest magnetic complexity. Another region also in the northwest is moderately sized and with moderate magnetic complexity. All remaining regions are smaller and magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were identified in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind initially showed a gradual increase, followed by a steady increase late in the day which suggests that we are now under the influence of a coronal hole feature, with wind speeds currently around 480-530 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was generally Moderate. The north-south component fluctuated between positive and negative, initially weakly but then moderately late in the day. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled increasing Active to Minor Geomagnetic Storm late in the day.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares, mainly from two sunspot regions in the northwest part of the disc. There is now a very slight chance of Strong flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A fast wind enhancement has arrived. Wind speeds are expected to remain at elevated levels today, between 500-550 km/s, perhaps temporarily increasing to 600 km/s. From Day 2 (02 May) solar winds are expected to gradually ease to reach background levels through day 4 (04 May).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to start at Active to Minor Storm levels, with a slight chance of isolated Moderate Storm intervals. Activity is then likely to decline during Day 1 (01 May), becoming Unsettled to Active, and then mostly Quiet to Unsettled from Day 2 (02 May) onwards.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is currently at background levels and likely to remain so, although there is a slight chance of exceeding the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold should there be any larger flares.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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