Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate class flares. Minor Geomagnetic Storm likely Day 1 (29 Aug), slight chance of Moderate Storm.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low over the past 24 hours, with only one minor Common class flare observed. There are five regions on the visible disc. A moderately sized group in the northwest has historically been the most complex, but continues to reduce in size and complexity. The largest region on the disc is also in the northwest and has become more elongated in recent hours. The remaining spots are smaller and magnetically simple.

No significant Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in available imagery over the last 24 hours.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1, were initially indicative of a slow wind. Solar wind speeds were at background levels, below 300km/s, before increasing later in the period to around 400km/s in a weak high speed stream. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak at first, rising to moderate in the faster solar winds late on. The north-south component varied weakly to start, before seeing some sustained negative periods towards the end of the period. Geomagnetic activity was generally Quiet at first, becoming Unsettled to Active in the fast solar winds.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was near background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is expected to remain Low, with a slight but increasing chance of isolated M-class flares over the coming days.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: At least two CMEs from 25 Aug may reach Earth, along with a third, much lower confidence CME. The first two are currently late, but may still arrive along with the third during Day 1 (29 Aug). The Earth looks to have connected with CH90/+, albeit fairly weakly so far,  with effects from this potentially combining with any CME arrivals, and possibly continuing into Day 2 (30 Aug). 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) on Day 1 (29 Aug) due to fast solar winds, with occasional G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) intervals likely. There is a Slight Chance of G2/Moderate storm (Kp6) intervals if any of the forecast CMEs also arrive. Enhanced activity may continue into Day 2 (30 Aug) before waning Days 3 and 4 (31 Aug - 01 Sep).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to continue at background levels, but with a slight chance of solar radiation reaching S1/Minor Radiation Storm.