Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at predominantly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible Saturday night into Sunday due to a combination of fast solar winds and the potential of a glancing coronal mass ejection. However, any visible aurora will likely be limited to northern Scotland and similar latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible during the southern hemisphere Saturday night into Sunday due to a combination of fast solar winds and the potential of a glancing CME (coronal mass ejection). However, any visibility will likely remain limited to high latitudes such as New Zealand's south island.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate class flares. Chance of Minor Storms Day 2 and Day 3 (25-26 Apr)
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been high, with five Moderate class flares, four of these from a region in the northwest, with the peak flare from a region in the northeast. This region is the largest and most notable on the disc and has developed over the past 24 hours to become magnetically complex, and has the potential for further growth and complexification. The region in the northwest which produced most of the flares is apparently unremarkable, a simple and stable bipolar region. The remaining regions on the disc remain small and simple, including two new and yet to be numbered regions, one of which in the southeast has shown some slight growth.
CME's (coronal mass ejections) were associated with each of the Moderate class flares. None of the CMEs originating from the region in the northwest are currently expected to have any Earth directed component. A CME associated with a Moderate class flare at 23/0459 UTC, from the region in the northeast, may give a glancing blow at Earth during the morning of the Day 3 (26 April), but this is currently low confidence.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds remained at Slightly Elevated levels between 420-450km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was Weak, with the north-south component variable in direction and also Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a chance of isolated to occasional moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME (coronal mass ejection) associated with a Moderate flare at 23/0459 UTC from a region in the northeast may give a glancing blow at Earth during the morning of the Day 3 (26 April), but this is currently low confidence. Slightly elevated solar winds are expected decline to Background through today. A minor solar wind enhancement is then expected, from a connection to a small and narrow coronal hole feature, most likely arriving late morning to early afternoon on Day 2 (25 Apr), with solar winds returning to Slightly Elevated levels. During Day 3 (26 Apr) there is a chance of a weak glancing blow from the CME which left the Sun on the 23rd. Day 4 (27 Apr) solar winds are expected to return to Background levels.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet with a chance of Unsettled intervals. Activity increases to become Unsettled to Active, with a chance of Minor Storms with any fast wind onset on Day 2 (25 Apr), with further Minor storms intervals are possible with any glancing CME impact on the Day 3 (26 Apr). Through Day 4 (27 Apr) geomagnetic activity is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled again.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to continue at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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