Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A weak CME may reach Earth on 05 May (UTC) though there is a lot of uncertainty about this. Activity is likely to be mostly at background levels on 05 May (UTC), but there is a small chance of visible aurora from high latitudes, such as northern Scotland. The next weak enhancement is expected on on 07 May due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for odd glimpse of the aurora as far south as northern UK.
Southern Hemisphere
A weak CME may reach Earth on 05 May (UTC) though there is a lot of uncertainty about this. Activity is likely to be mostly at background levels on 05 May (UTC), but there is a small chance of visible aurora from high latitudes, mainly Antarctica. The next weak enhancement is expected on on 07 May (UTC) due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for odd glimpse of the aurora as far north as New Zealand's South Island.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Storms on day 1, then easing. Chance of further G1 Minor Storms on day 3 (07 May) due to fast solar winds.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with a peak C6.0 flare observed at 05/0527 UTC from a sunspot that has now rotated just beyond the northwest limb. There are ten sunspot regions visible, these are generally magnetically simple groups with limited activity. All regions appear to be either stable or showing signs of weakening, with just a couple of new simple spots emerging.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery, with the filament eruption CME to the east passing well behind Earth.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the arrival of a weak CME at 04/0410UTC, followed by a transition into a magnetic cloud at 04/1500 UTC. Solar wind speeds, as observed by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 persisted Slightly Elevated 400-450km/s until around 05/1050 when it dropped to Background 380-400 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, has generally been Moderate at 8-12nT. The north-south component started generally Weak and positive at first, dropping sharply to generally negative and Weak to Moderate from around 04/1500 UTC. It then stayed negative, but slowly rose to become Weak and positive from 05/0600 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) until 04/1500 UTC, then increased to Active (Kp 4), with a G2 Moderate Storm 04/1800-2100 UTC. Since then it has reduced back down to Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue but with a chance of isolated M-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing influence from a CME is possible at first, with the potential for further weak enhancements day 1 (05 May). Otherwise solar winds are expected to persist at Background speeds until the onset of the fast wind from a Coronal Hole, most likely on day 3 (7 May). There is a chance of further Active to G1 Minor Storm activity on day 1 (5 May). Otherwise activity will ease to Quiet with Unsettled intervals day 2 (6 May), with a further spell of Unsettled to Active expected on day 3 (7 May), and a chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is currently at Background and expected to persist at this level.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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