Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Weak glancing CME enhancements are possible at any time, however aurora visibility is likely to be limited to higher geomagnetic latitudes, and currently unlikely to extend further south than the far north of the UK.
Southern Hemisphere
Weak glancing CME enhancements are possible at any time, however aurora visibility is likely to be limited due to short hours of darkness.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate to High solar activity. Slight chance of G1/Minor Storm next few days.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with five low Moderate-class flares observed. There are seven regions on the visible disc. The most notable is a large sunspot region located in the southwest, which is the middle spot of the three located in this area. This region continues to display complexity and potential instability with small delta spots that suggest potential for significant flaring. The other main region of interest is located in the northwest of the disc, which now appears to be a Beta-Delta configuration with the delta spot appearing within its intermediate penumbra. Other regions are stable or declining.
A number of weak CMEs (coronal mass ejections) have been observed from the recent flare activity, along with a couple of small filament eruptions. This are mainly off the Earth-Sun line, however glancing impacts are possible through the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds remained indicative of either Slow wind or weak CME passage. Speeds observed remain generally at Background, with a brief period of Slightly Elevated levels, peaking near 430km/s at 10/0500 UTC, following the arrival of a weak CME. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak to Moderate due to a weak CME arrival. The north-south component was also Weak to Moderate and predominately negative (southward). Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is expected, with Moderate-class solar flares expected and an ongoing slight chance of isolated Strong (X-class) solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Any CME arrival on the 9th was weak, however, further weak and glancing arrivals are possible through the period from the various CMEs released on 08-09 Dec. Predominantly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity (Kp1-3) is expected, however should Earth experience any glancing CME blows then Active intervals are likely with a slight chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background, but with a chance of further enhancement given any further notable flares, most likely from the larger region in the southwest or the previously active region in the northwest.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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