Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is likely to be near background levels at first, but with an increasing chance of some limited enhancements Thursday (UTC) onwards with a possible weak glancing coronal mass ejection and faster solar winds expected into the UTC weekend. Any aurora is likely to be limited to higher latitudes, with a chance for the north of Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is likely to be near background levels at first, but with an increasing chance of some limited enhancements Thursday (UTC) onwards, with a possible weak glancing Coronal Mass Ejection and faster solar winds into the UTC weekend. Any aurora is likely to be limited to higher latitudes, with a chance of reaching the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 16:23 (GMT) on Wed 4 Nov 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor geomagnetic storms to end UTC working week.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity rose to Low.
There are now three sunspot regions clearly visible on the disc. The most complex and most dynamic region remains in the southeast, with proliferation of trailing spots observed in the period and some mixing of magnetic polarities here - such regions show a greater propensity to flare. Other regions were simpler and more stable.
No significant Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a continued return towards a background regime. Speeds varied from Background to Slightly Elevated, 320-430km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was generally weak, while the north-south component, Bz, varied weakly between positive and negative. This was most often orientated in opposition to Earth's field (i.e. southward), although the small magnitude of other solar wind measures limited arising activity.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was for Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue, although there is a chance of isolated Moderate flaring, both from the possible return of regions over the eastern solar horizon, and from sunspot region AR4566 given its increasing complexity.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun on 01 Nov is a most likely miss, but may glance Earth during Thursday 05 November. Otherwise, some minor fast wind influence is possible around the same time. Later in the forecast period the stronger and more assured onset of a second fast wind is expected.
Geomagnetic activity expected to remain generally Quiet to Unsettled to start. There is a rising Chance of Active to G1 Minor geomagnetic storm intervals into the second half of the period given the potential for more significant fast solar winds .
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected.
Issued at: 12:58 (GMT) on Wed 4 Nov 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: