Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate-class X-ray flares. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with Common-class flares observed in the past 24 hours. There are currently twelve sunspot regions on the visible disc. Of most interest are two clusters of spot regions, one cluster is in the southeast. All these regions appear to be magnetically simple. The central region is stable, the northeast region is seeing decline in their trailing spots and the southwest region is seeing some waxing and waning of its trailing spots to the south of the main leading spot. The second cluster lies near south-centre disc, both showing signs of decay in their trailing spots. Two regions in the northwest, are seeing some development, particularly the penumbra of their lead spots.  

A high-end Common-class flare from a simple region in the southeast may potentially have produced a CME, it is thought that any related CME is weak as it is unable to be determined from the available imagery. This may be due to being contaminated by a far-sided CME, which occurred at a similar time. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed either some weak coronal hole or CME influence. Wind speeds initially varied between 380-420km/s, before increasing to reach a peak of 459km/s at 26/1918UTC, before declining to around 400km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak to Moderate. The north-south component varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3). with an Active (Kp 4) interval 26/2100UTC to 27/0000UTC.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation briefly rose just above the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold following a far sided eruptive event, but has now fallen below S1 and remains on a declining trend.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: There is an increasing chance of isolated M-class flares, initially most likely from the various spots in the southeast disc, but with an increasing component from far side region(s) currently rotating onto the east limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs currently feature in the forecast. The solar wind is currently experiencing minor disturbance, with slightly elevated wind speeds, either due to a weak CME or early onset of CH59/-. CH59/- and then CH58/- in the southern hemisphere are expected to provide minor enhancements in the coming days, with wind speeds perhaps reaching up to 500 km/s.

Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected at first, but activity is likely to become Unsettled to Active with coronal hole influence, most probably on Days 1-2 (27-28 May), with a slight chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels are declining after a recent brief enhancement due to a far side eruption. Radiation levels are most likely to remain at background levels for the rest of this period.