Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The next main enhancement to the auroral oval is expected during the early hours UTC of Friday 09 October, with the onset of a CME that left the Sun at 06/0610UTC. Aurora may be visible across northern UK at peak and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The next main enhancement to the auroral oval is expected during the early hours UTC of Friday 09 October, with the onset of a CME that left the Sun at 06/0610UTC. Aurora may be visible across the south of the South Island of New Zealand at peak, perhaps also Tasmania and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 02:23 (GMT) on Wed 7 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G2 Moderate geomagnetic storm UTC day of Friday 09 October. Daily chance of R1 Minor radio blackouts.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity reached Moderate-class levels over the past 24 hours, with a pair of Moderate flares from a complex sunspot region in the north central disc.
There are currently up to five sunspot regions on the visible disc. The main changes have been continued growth and development of the pair of centre-disc bipolar regions. Both have shown significant proliferation of spots and spreading/development of penumbrae. The southernmost is the more magnetically complex, showing mixed polarity with delta spot configuration in both lead and trailer portions. Other regions were either unipolar or in slow decay, with one of these regions fading as it nears the western limb.
The most complex region produced a Moderate-class flare at 06/0610UTC which resulted in a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) signature in subsequent imagery. Analysis has been conducted, which suggests an Earth-bound trajectory and most likely arrival during the early UTC hours of 09 October.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a waning connection to a coronal hole fast wind. The solar wind speed fell from Elevated to Slightly Elevated levels. The magnetic field of the solar wind was Weak, with the important north-south component also weak and largely southward (negative). Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels have been predominantly at resting Background values.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: There is a daily chance of Moderate-class flares and slight chance of Strong-class, with the most likely source being the central sunspot regions. Both regions are present throughout, with no other significant arrivals due, giving a level trend in flare risk.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The 06/0610UTC CME has been analysed with an arrival time most likely in the early UTC hours of Day 3 (09 Oct). There are no other Earth-directed CMEs expected at present.
Residual waning coronal hole fast winds are otherwise expected to ease to Background through 07-08 October. Other coronal hole influence is now unlikely to be a significant factor in the forecast, with CH01 closing, and the final part of the forecast period instead comprising CME activity.
Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is forecast until the CME arrival, with an Expected chance of G1/Minor Storm, and a Chance of G2/Moderate storm at peak on Day 3 (09 Oct). Most of the activity will likely be confined to this UTC day, before easing into the start of the UTC weekend.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a daily slight chance of S1 Minor Solar Radiation Storms, with this gradually increasing due to the westward progression of the two most complex sunspot regions.
Issued at: 00:09 (GMT) on Wed 7 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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