Space Weather Forecast Headline: Increasing Chance of Moderate-class X-ray flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity rose to Moderate, with occasional Common-class X-ray flares observed, but peaking with an isolated Moderate-class flare at 22/1029UTC from a region which now lies on the northwestern solar horizon. The event appears likely to have generated a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), and although analysis is pending, an Earth-bound component is not expected.

There are up to six sunspot regions on the current facing side. The main changes in the period were a spreading trend in the most complex group in the northeast, with proliferation of new central spots also observed here. A second region near centre-disc also showed a spreading tendency in the period, but was overall much less complex, despite a new spot being added to the leading group. A new simple bipolar unnumbered region developed in the western solar hemisphere near the solar equator in the period, with a unipolar second region now also apparent on the eastern solar horizon. 

There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the past 24 hours, although there are numerous potential sources in the form of large 'filaments' (arcs of plasma). One in the northwest appears to lie significantly proud of the solar 'surface' and warrants monitoring.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind showed a slow regime in the period. Speeds were slightly elevated at first, but gradually waned over the 24 hours to reach background levels. The number of particle in the solar wind was level within background, with the magnetic field small-scale. This field was mainly anti-aligned with the Earth's field, which ordinarily may produce greater geomagnetic effects, however because of the subdued solar wind measures, the net result was for quiet geomagnetic activity throughout.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: The chances of Moderate-class flares should rise from a slight chance to a chance into the coming UTC weekend, the result of a returning complex region over the southeastern solar horizon. No significant departures are expected in the meantime.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs feature in the forecast. Mainly quiet geomagnetic activity is expected throughout, with perhaps a rising slight chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 at the very end of the four days - should a fast solar wind materialise (from a coronal hole) on the earliest end of possibilities.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected. As a result of the Moderate-class X-ray flare late in the forecast period, there is a slightly raised risk of S1 Minor Solar Radiation Storm in the immediate term, although there are as yet no signs of any enhancement (which otherwise may develop in the next few hours).