Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate-class flares likely. Chance of Minor Storms days 1-2 (22-23 Jul).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Moderate with two Moderate-class flares from the most  notable of the four regions on the Earth-facing disc, located in the centre disc. This has at least one mixed polarity spot, but is showing a simplifying trend as it moves into the western hemisphere. The remaining spots are mature unipolar spots and generally showing a decaying trend.

A CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) from the northwest on 21 Jul is under analysis for any glancing impacts, but is most likely to pass to the north of Earth. No other CMEs were observed in available imagery that could have a potential Earth-directed component  

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a slight enhancement, likely due to the fast winds from the southern coronal hole in the southwest. Solar wind speeds have been Background to Slightly Elevated at 370-460 km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field eased from Strong, to be Background to Moderate from 21/1700 UTC. The north-south component remained Moderate and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 2-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no Solar Radiation storms observed. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is likely to continue, with further M-class flares likely and a slight chance of X-class flares, mainly from the region moving into the western disc.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs however an eruption to the northwest is under analysis for any Earth-directed component. Ongoing Slightly Elevated winds are expected, before likely becoming Elevated to Strong, perhaps peaking 600km/s, due to a further enhancement from the next coronal hole sourced fast winds. This is most likely later day 1 or day 2 (22-23 Jul) , before easing later in the period. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled, but with Active spells and a chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals if any fast wind enhancement is observed. Any CME glance also brings a slight chance of G1-G2 Minor Storms, however this is low confidence for timing or if any impact will occur at this stage. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to be Background with no Solar Radiation storms occurring. However, any significant eruptions from the central disc sunspot could increase the observed count rates.