Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No significant enhancements to the auroral oval are expected initially, with aurora sightings unlikely. On 29 or 30 Oct, coronal hole fast winds are likely to arrive, this brings likely aurora sightings across Northern Scotland, with a Chance of sightings across other parts Scotland and perhaps northern England, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
No significant enhancements to the auroral oval are expected initially, with aurora sightings unlikely. On 29 or 30 Oct UTC, coronal hole fast winds are likely to arrive, this brings likely aurora sightings across Southern New Zealand and similar latitudes, where skies are clear.
Issued at: 01:35 (GMT) on Tue 27 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Likely G1/Minor, Chance G2/Moderate geomagnetic storms days 3 and 4.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with C-class flares observed, peaking C2.8 at 26/1840 UTC from a region near the southwest limb. There are two sunspot regions on the visible disc. The aforementioned spot, is a relatively simple spot, with an open structure and exhibiting a decaying trend, though due to foreshortening is now difficult to analyse. A small and simple spot resides in the southeast.
Two coronal mass ejections were observed in association with Common-class flares from near the southwest limb, though both are expected to miss Earth.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds perhaps indicated a very weak high speed stream after 26/1600 UTC. Speeds were Background, with a slight rising trend. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was initially Weak, then Moderate after 26/1615 UTC. The north-south component varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles persisting at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is expected during the four-day forecast period, with a very slight chance of increasing to Moderate.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast period. Solar winds are slow and expected to remain near background until the arrival of the next coronal hole fast winds. Speeds may increase to Strong, but there remains some uncertainty regarding the possible onset time, but with later day 3 (29 Oct) as the earliest and day 4 (30 Oct) as perhaps more probable.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet (Kp 0-2) until later day 3 or day 4 (29 or 20 Oct), when conditions are Expected to become Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4), with Likely G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) intervals and a Chance of an isolated G2/Moderate Storm (Kp 6) interval.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles expected to persist at Background levels.
Issued at: 01:16 (GMT) on Tue 27 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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