Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Some minor geomagnetic activity may occur early Saturday 29th Nov due to ongoing coronal hole fast winds. Aurora sightings may be possible across the far north of Scotland and similar latitudes at times where skies are clear. Following this, the aurora oval is expected to return to background levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Some minor geomagnetic activity may occur early Saturday 29th Nov due to ongoing coronal hole fast winds. Aurora sightings may be possible across the far south of New Zealand where skies are clear. Following this, the aurora oval is expected to return to background levels.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Increasing Likelihood of further Moderate class flares, increasing Chance of Strong class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with three impulsive Moderate class flares, peaking at 28/2222UTC, from an emerging region on the southeast limb. There are six sunspots on the disc. A large region in the southwest shows moderate complexity, however flaring from this region has been insignificant so far. A new active region is rotating over the southeastern limb and as such, is difficult to currently analyse in detail, though appears to be large and magnetically complex, likely with more still to emerge. The remaining regions are all smaller, magnetically simple and stable.
Occasional coronal mass ejection activity was observed on or around the east limb, but no Earth-directed ejecta was seen in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters showed slowly declining influence from coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were Elevated to Strong, with an erratic but overall gradual decline. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component was also Weak and highly variable in direction, although generally favouring a negative (southward) orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at or close to Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate solar activity is forecast to continue initially, with an elevated chance of Moderate class flares. Flare probabilities rise through the period, with Moderate class flares becoming Likely, and eventually a Chance of Strong class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are currently no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections forecast. Solar winds are expected to gradually ease through Days 1-3 (28-30 Nov) back to Slightly Elevated levels, perhaps reaching background levels on Day 4 (31 Nov).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) through the start of this period, with a chance of isolated active (Kp4) intervals and a very slight, diminishing likelihood of isolated G1/Kp5 periods during Days 1–2 (28–29 Nov). Geomagnetic activity should then gradually trend toward Quiet (Kp1-2) from Day 3 (01 Dec) onward.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is at, or near normal background levels and Likely to remain at similar levels during the four-day period, though with a rising Slight Chance of reaching S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storm levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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