Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G2 Moderate geomagnetic storm UTC day of Friday 09 October. Increased daily chance of R1 Minor radio blackouts. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity has been Moderate, with a recent increase in the cadence and magnitude of flares observed. These flares peaked with at 06/0805UTC from a complex sunspot region near the middle of the Sun, with a second region to its immediate north having also produced Moderate activity in the period.

There are now up to five regions, with the development of a small magnetically bipolar region in the northeast. The main changes on the Earth-facing side have been of strong growth beneath the pair of central sunspot regions. Both have shown significant prolfieration of spots, spreading and development. The southernmost is now the more complex magnetically. Other regions were either magnetically unipolar or in slow decay, with one of these regions fading as it neared the western solar horizon.

The most complex region produced a Moderate-class flare at 06/0610UTC which has resulted in a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) signature in subsequent imagery. An early analysis has been conducted, which suggests an Earth-bound trajectory and most likely arrival during the UTC early hours of 09 October. This estimate will be revised as more data becomes available. It is possible a second event followed with a second x-ray flare at 06/0805UTC, however this is under review.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a waning connection to a coronal hole fast wind. The solar wind speed fell from strong highs to reach elevated levels by the period's end. Both the number of particles in the solar wind and their associated magnetic field were small-scale in the period, although the field was mainly anti-aligned versus Earth's (usually to greater geomagnetic effect).

Resulting geomagnetic activity was below Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 throughout, starting near this level but falling as the 24 hours unfolded.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels rose slightly after the 05/1848UTC x-ray flare, however this peaked below 1pfu (where Minor solar radiation storm S1 starts at 10pfu) and has been at resting background since the start of the current UTC day.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: There is a daily chance of Moderate-class flares and slight chance of Strong-class, with the most likely source being the central sunspot regions. Both regions are present throughout, with no other significant arrivals due, giving a level trend in flare risk. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The 06/0610UTC CME has been tentatively analysed with an arrival time most likely in the UTC 'early hours'of Friday 09 October. This is under review, as is a possible second CME, with both pending more imagery for analysis. There are no other Earth-directed CMEs.

Fast winds are otherwise expected to ease by 08 October. Other 'coronal hole' fast wind influence is now unlikely to be a signficant player in the forecast, with the final part of the forecast period instead comprising CME activity.

Increasingly quiet geomagnetic activity is forecast until the CME arrival, with a chance of Moderate Geomagnetic storm G2 at peak on Friday 09 October (G1 Expected). Most of the activity will likely be confined to that UTC day, before beginning to ease into the start of the UTC weekend.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a daily slight chance of S1 Minor Solar Radiation Storms with the increase in solar activity. This should increase further with the westward progression of the two most complex sunspot regions - they will connect more effectively with Earth should any events occur.