Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The greatest chance of high geomagnetic latitude enhancement in this 72-hour period is during Saturday night UTC, with a non-recurrent fast wind due that may see enhanced auroral displays for e.g. northern Scotland. A further enhancement is possible on Monday 14, with the arrival of a weak CME and another coronal hole fast wind.
Southern Hemisphere
The greatest chance of high geomagnetic latitude enhancement in this 72-hour period is during Saturday night UTC, with a non-recurrent fast wind due that may see enhanced auroral displays for e.g. far southern New Zealand. A further enhancement is possible on Monday 14, with the arrival of a weak CME and another coronal hole fast wind.
Issued at: 01:04 (GMT) on Sat 12 Sep 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 into UTC weekend and into new UTC working week.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity is Very Low, below the Common-class threshold over the past 24 hours.
There are currently six sunspot regions on the disc. The majority of these regions appear to be stable and magnetically unipolar regions. The main region of interest is currently located in the northwest, which has stabilised, with some consolidation of spots in its leading portion.
No Earth directed CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were observed during this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds are currently at slightly elevated levels, declining from 460km/s to 400km/s throughout the period. The Earth's magnetic field was Weak, with the all important north-south component, Bz, also oscillating weakly, but favouring a southward direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to remain Low to Very Low. There is a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class X-ray flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The geomagnetic forecast is of low confidence, due to a non-recurrent 'coronal hole' fast wind and then another coronal hole fast wind and a possible CME arrival on Day 3 (14 Sep).
All considered, there is a Chance of G1 from a coronal hole fast wind early Day 1 (12 Sep), and then a Slight Chance of G1 from another coronal hole fast wind, this feature is located in the southeast, and any minor CME effects at the very end of Day 2 (13 Sep) and into Day 3 (14 Sep). Any enhancement gradually waning on Day 4 (15 Sep).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight chance of further enhancements above the S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storm threshold given the most active sunspot region's westward progress and development.
Issued at: 00:18 (GMT) on Sat 12 Sep 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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