Space Weather Forecast Headline: Low to Moderate solar activity. G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storms from Coronal Mass Ejection arrivals on day 1 (30 Jun) and late day 2 into day 3 (01-02 Jul).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Moderate, with one isolated Moderate-class flare, which occurred at 29/2140 UTC from a large sunspot region in the northwest quadrant. There are four sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The largest region is located in the southeast quadrant, and this retains a couple of delta spots, but despite this it has shown little activity in the last 24 hours. The second largest region located in the northwest quadrant continues to show growth, with further intermediate spots emerging. This region also contains a delta spot and is the most active on the disc, being responsible for the recent Moderate-class flare. The remaining spots are small and simple. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds eased from Slightly-Elevated to Slow-Ambient at around 330km/s, but recently increased back up to Slightly Elevated levels, currently near 430km/s, following the recent CME arrival. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak to Moderate with its north-south component also Weak and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity with further isolated Moderate-class flares likely, and a Slight Chance of a Strong (X-class) flare.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The CME which left the Sun late 26 Jun has recently arrived at L1 at 30/1100UTC, albeit relatively weak so far. Analysis from the CME on the 27 Jun suggests a slow moving CME may arrive late on day 2 into early day 3 (01-02 Jul). Solar winds started the period at background levels, but have recently increased to slightly elevated levels, currently near 430km/s, after recent CME arrival. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet at first with only a chance of Unsettled intervals. However, the CME arrival (30 Jun) is expected to increase activity to Active to G1/ Minor Storms with a Chance of G2/ Moderate Storms. These most likely with any following magnetic cloud, with the risk continuing into day 2 (01 Jul), and exacerbated later day 2 into day 3 (01-02 Jul) by the arrival of a further CME. During day 4 (3 Jul) geomagnetic activity is likely to return to Quiet to Unsettled levels.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.