Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at Background levels for much of this period. Any enhancements are expected to be limited, with viewings restricted to northernmost latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at Background levels for much of this period. Any enhancements are expected to be limited, with viewings restricted to Antarctica.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Geomagnetic activity likely easing early day 1 (05 May). Chance of further G1 Minor Storms on day 3 (07 May) due to fast solar winds.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with a one small Moderate-class flare observed at 04/0133UTC from a region which has now rotated just beyond the northwest limb. The other eight visible regions on the disc remained stable with limited growth. The main development was observed in the northeast, with a region which saw the growth of small intermediate spots, but remained a small and simple.
No Earth-directed (Coronal Mass Ejections) CMEs were observed in available imagery
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the arrival of a weak CME around 04/0410 UTC with aurora potentially observed as far south as northern England. Solar wind speeds persisted Slightly Elevated 400-450km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak at first but rose slightly with the CME arrival, then erratically built to be Moderate from 04/1130 UTC. The north-south component was Weak at first, but strengthened with the CME arrival, becoming Moderate and Variable. From 04/1500 UTC this became persistently southward and mainly Moderate in strength. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) until 04/1500 UTC, then increased to Active (Kp 4), with a G2 Moderate storm 04/1800-2100 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles in orbit (high energy protons) persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue but with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing CME influence is possible at first, with the potential for further weak enhancements on day 1 (05 May). Otherwise solar winds are expected to persist at Background speeds until the onset of the fast winds of the next coronal hole most likely on day 3 (07 May). There is a chance of further Active to G1 Minor Storm activity either early on day 1 (05 May) or with any subsequent re-enhancement later in the day, if a further arrival is observed. Otherwise activity will ease to be Quiet with Unsettled intervals until day 3 (07 May), with a further spell of Unsettled to Active expected and a chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles in orbit (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no Solar Radiation storms forecast.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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