Space Weather Forecast Headline: Generally quiet Space Weather conditions initially, then Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storming on Days 1 and 2.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, peaking with a C2.4 flare at 22/1720 UTC from the north-west of the disc. 

There are currently nine sunspot regions on the visible disc. A region in the central disc is the largest sunspot region and has been responsible for some C-class flare activity. Two areas, both in the north-west have recently seen some penumbral growth and increased in complexity. They both appear to have developed a small delta spot each and are areas to watch for activity. Another region, also in the north-west, has seen some fading of penumbra in it's intermediate spots in the last few hours. The remaining regions are small and magnetically simple, including two small NEW spots located in the southwest disc. 

There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds, as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1, were slow-ambient at around at 320-330km/s at the start of the period and have been on a slow downward trend since. They are currently around 280-290km/s now. A data outage occurred with Solar-1 data from around 22/0953 UTC with data fully returning around 22/1419 UTC. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak and quite steady. The north-south component, Bz, has been weak and generally positive, although there have been periods of negative. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2) throughout. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at normal background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be Low or Very Low, with a Chance of becoming Moderate should any isolated Moderate-class flares occur.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections currently feature in the forecast period.

Solar winds are expected to be largely Slow-Ambient until later on Day 1 (23 Sep) or Day 2 (24 Sep) until the next enhancement from a coronal hole arrives. This could result in Elevated solar winds of around 500km/s, similar to the previous rotation. Solar winds should slowly decline from Day 3 (25 Sep).

Geomagnetic activity will likely start as Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) until connection to coronal hole fast winds late on Day 1 or Day 2 (23-24 Sep). Once in the high speed stream Active intervals (Kp 4) are likely, with a chance of G1/Minor storms (Kp 5) and a slight chance of G2/Moderate storm (Kp 6) intervals. This is most likely Day 1 or 2 (23-24 Sep) , though a chance of isolated G1/Minor storms may continue into Day 3 (25 Sep), but reduces further after this.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.