Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate-class flares likely. Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storms days 1-2 (23-24 Jul).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is Low, with a single impulsive flare from the largest region near the centre disc at 22/1851 UTC. Six sunspot regions are visible on the solar disc. The region near the centre of the disc remains the largest and most complex, and no longer showing a delta configuration. The remaining regions are mature, largely unipolar sunspots that have changed little.

The CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) observed from the northwest limb on 21 Jul has been assessed as a possible glancing Earth-directed event, although the majority of the ejecta is expected to pass north of Earth. No other CMEs with a potential Earth-directed component were identified in the available observations. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a connection to a modest coronal hole high speed stream, likely the fast winds from the southern coronal hole in the southwest. Solar wind speeds have been Slightly Elevated rising to elaveted levels. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was at Weak to Moderate levels. The important north-south component remained variable at Weak to Moderate levels. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no Solar Radiation storms observed. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is likely to continue, with a chance of isolated M-class flares and a slight chance of X-class flares, mainly from the region moving across the centre/western disc.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The connection to the high-speed stream is expected to continue, with a further enhancement likely on Day 1 as the main coronal hole influence increases. Solar winds are expected to be Elevated to potentially Strong, with a probable peak above 600 km/s. The CME observed from the northwest limb on 21 Jul has been assessed as a possible glancing blow to Earth, with arrival potentially early on Day 2 (24 Jul) UTC. Solar wind conditions are then expected to gradually ease through Days 3–4 (25–26 Jul).

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled on Day 1 (23 July) with a chance of Active intervals. The risk increases by Day 2 (24 Jul), with a chance of G1 (Minor Storm), before reducing to Quiet and Unsettled on Days 3 & 4 (25 & 26 July). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to be Background with no Solar Radiation storms occurring. However, any significant eruptions from the central disc sunspot could increase the observed count rates.