Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Significant auroral enhancements are unlikely during the forecast period, with visibility of the aurora likely to remain largely restricted to high latitudes. There is an expectation of the onset of faster solar winds, either late 16 November (UTC) or 17 November. This could allow for aurora to become visible from northern parts of Scotland and similar latitudes for a short period of time before subsiding. A slight change of activity continues into the 18 November in association with the potential for glancing CME influence.
Southern Hemisphere
Significant auroral enhancements are unlikely during the forecast period, with visibility of the aurora likely to remain largely restricted to high latitudes. There is an expectation of the onset of faster solar winds, either late 16 November (UTC) or 17 November. This could allow for aurora to become visible from far southern parts of New Zealand and similar latitudes for a short period of time before subsiding. A slight change of activity continues into the 18 November (UTC) in association with the potential for glancing CME influence.
Issued at: 14:46 (GMT) on Sun 15 Nov 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate solar flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low in the past 24 hours. There are now six sunspot regions on the visible disc with the small AR4568 and AR4572 fading. The largest region is AR4579, located in the far northeast. Two rather small regions (AR4576 and AR4578) in close proximity to each other in the southwest disc continue to evolve slowly, meanwhile AR4574 in the northeast has seen some modest emergence in small intermediate spots in recent hours.
A complex Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in association with a flare at 14/2127 UTC from sunspot region AR4579. Analysis continues but initial modelling suggesting the potential for glancing Earth influence late in the forecast period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds saw Slightly Elevated speeds decline to Background levels. Solar winds, initially near 430km/s, declined steadily to around 350km/s by the end of the period. The total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was weak. The important north-south component, Bz, varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be mostly at Low levels, but with a chance of Moderate activity should any isolated Moderate-class flares occur.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No significant Earth-directed CMEs are currently forecast, although some minor glancing influence is possible by Day 4 (18 Nov). Solar winds have now eased to near background levels with no significant enhancements expected until Day 2 or Day 3 (16 or 17 Nov), when faster solar winds are likely to connect with Earth resulting in an increase in solar wind speeds to Slightly Elevated or Elevated levels.
Quiet (Kp0-2) geomagnetic conditions are expected until connection with fast winds from the anticipated faster solar winds into Days 2-3 (16-17 Nov). Following this Unsettled to Active intervals (Kp3-4) expected, with a slight chance of peak G1/Kp5 activity. This slight change of G1/Kp5 activity continues into Day 4 (18 Nov) in association with the potential for glancing CME influence.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation storms are not expected.
Issued at: 13:24 (GMT) on Sun 15 Nov 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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