Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A high speed stream from a coronal hole feature brings a chance of slightly elevated auroral activity at first on Friday night from the far north of Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes, where skies are clear during the limited hours of darkness. Chances of visible aurora quickly diminish through the rest of the period.
Southern Hemisphere
A high speed stream from a coronal hole feature brings a chance of slightly elevated auroral activity at first. Aurora sightings may be possible during the southern hemisphere Friday night from the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Issued at:
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated M-class flares. Chance of isolated Minor Geomagnetic Storms on Day 1 (01 May).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with low level Common-class flares observed.
There are currently up to ten sunspot regions on the visible disc, of which six are numbered. Of these a bipolar region in the northwest, approaching the limb, is the largest region with the greatest magnetic complexity, but appears to be showing some decay. Another bipolar region also in the northwest is moderately sized and with moderate magnetic complexity, showing some development in its intermediate portion. A further moderate size bipolar region is located north central disc, but has shown overall slight decay. A modest sized bipolar region in the southwest quadrant has shown some development, mainly in its intermediate portion. Remaining regions are relatively small and magnetically simple, although two bipolar regions in the eastern disc are showing some growth and development at present.
A CME seen emerging to the southeast in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery after 30/1200UTC, and more faintly toward the south in SOHO/LASCO imagery is still being assessed for a potential Earth directed component, however the source remains uncertain at present. No other Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind increased from Background levels, around 360km/s, to reach Elevated levels at times, peaking 540km/s at 01/0609UTC, under the influence of a coronal hole feature. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field began moderate but gradually reduced to Weak levels. The north-south component fluctuated between positive and negative, initially moderately but then weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) increasing mainly Active to G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm (Kp 4-5) 30/1800-01/0600UTC, before reducing to Quiet (Kp 2) thereafter.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares, mainly from two sunspot regions in the northwest part of the disc. There is a very slight chance of Strong flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A fast wind enhancement is ongoing. Wind speeds are expected to remain at slightly elevated to elevated levels today, having now likely peaked around 540 km/s. From Day 2 (02 May) solar winds are expected to gradually ease to reach background levels through day 4 (04 May).
Geomagnetic activity is now expected to be largely in the range Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4), with a slight chance of isolated G1/Minor Storm levels (Kp 5) for the remainder of Day 1 (01 May). Activity is then likely to slowly decline becoming mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) from Day 2 (02 May) onwards.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is currently at background levels and likely to remain so, although there is a slight chance of exceeding the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold should there be any larger flares.
Issued at:
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: