Space Weather Forecast Headline: Ongoing Coronal Mass Ejections influence and further potential arrivals continue to give a likelihood of G1-G2 Minor Storms day 1-2. Likelihood of isolated Moderate class flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Low with only Common-class flares observed. There are nine sunspot regions on the disc, with the main growth observed in a region in the southwest and also in a re-emerged region in the northwest, although these remain magnetically simple. Also in the northwest, the previous active region continues with its non-typical magnetic orientation, with a number of smaller spots around the main positive polarity spot. The other regions, mostly in the east disc, remain simpler.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: CME arrival was observed 05/0424 UTC, from the first of the anticipated CMEs originating from 03 Jun. Solar wind speeds were Slightly Elevated at first, near 400km/s, before rising with the CME to be Elevated at 540km/s. Winds then varied Slightly Elevated to Elevated, between 440-550km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was initially Weak but rose to be Strong with the CME arrival. The north-south component rose from initially Weak values, to peak Moderately northward with the CME, before rotating to be Moderate southward from 05/1000 UTC. Despite the CME arrival, the northward IMF has resulted in only Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions (Kp0-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remains at background with no solar radiation storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with a continued likelihood of isolated Moderate solar flares. There is a slight chance of an isolated Strong solar flare, this most likely from the untypically orientated sunspot in the northwest that was active a couple of days ago.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The first CME arrival of the three potential arrivals that originated from 03 Jun has now occurred. While this arrival was weaker than anticipated, ongoing CME influence and any connection to the fast wind of a coronal hole is likely to give further enhancement through day 1 and potentially into day 2 (05-06 Jun). Activity is then then ease later day 2 or day 3 onward (07 Jun). Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to be Active to G1 Minor Storm on day 1 (05 Jun), with a chance of G2 Moderate Storms, and an isolated G3 Strong storm remains a slight chance. Late day 2 and into day 3 activity is expected to become mainly Quiet with isolated Unsettled intervals.   

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at background with no solar radiation storms occurring.