Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at Background on Friday 2nd (UTC) and much of Saturday 3rd before the onset of fast solar winds. This could bring some enhancement late on Saturday, but most likely through Sunday 4th. By Sunday evening, there is potential for glimpses of aurora as far south as northern Scotland or similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at Background on Friday 2nd (UTC) and much of Saturday 3rd before the onset of fast solar winds. This could bring some enhancement late on Saturday, but most likely through Sunday 4th. This brings the potential for glimpses of aurora to the southernmost parts of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 17:50 (GMT) on Fri 2 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor Geomagnetic Storms likely, mainly days 1 and 2 (03 and 04 Oct)
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Very Low, with no Common class flares over the past 24 hours. There are currently five sunspot regions on the disc, all of which are small, magnetically simple, and weak.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs) were observed in available imagery
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Slow wind conditions persisted. Background solar wind speeds were observed, around 300km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component was Weak and variable in orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisting at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is expected, with a chance of isolated Common class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CME influence is expected through the forecast period. The next significant enhancement is likely to be from a large coronal hole feature. Onset is considered most likely late on day 1 (03 Oct), but there is a chance the arrival of the solar wind enhancement be delayed until day 2 (04 Oct). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet initially. Activity increases to become Unsettled to Active with isolated Minor Storms intervals, and a slight chance of Moderate Storms with the fast wind onset, before declining to become Quiet to Unsettled through day 4 (06 Oct).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisting at Background.
Issued at: 00:20 (GMT) on Sat 3 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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