Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate-class flares likely. G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm likely Days 1-2 (27-28 Aug), chance G2/Moderate Storm Day 2.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate over the past 24 hours, with two Moderate-class flares, both from the more complex region on the disc. This region forms the bulk of the flare risk. It is a modestly sized but magnetically complex region, although it has shown some slight recent simplification. The other regions are much simpler in their magnetic structure, however a region nearby and to the northwest of the more complex region, has shown growth in its intermediate spots along with a slight increase in magnetic complexity. Two new regions have emerged in the east disc, and these are currently simple, but are continuing to grow at present. 

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were seen in available imagery in the last 24 hours.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1, were indicative of the slow wind. Background solar wind speeds slowly declined from 340 km/s to just below 300km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-1). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained a little above normal background, but well below the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold and easing.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with further isolated Moderate-class flares likely, and a slight chance of rising to High with a Strong flare. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: At least two CMEs from 25 Aug may reach Earth, along with a third, much lower confidence CME. The first two are likely to give a glancing, but potentially combined impact on Day 2 (28 Aug), with any enhancement from the third perhaps prolonging CME influence into Day 3 (29 Aug). A coronal hole fast wind is also expected from Day 1 (27 Aug), with a potential peak wind speed of 450-550km/s.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to begin mostly Quiet, but likely becoming Unsettled to G1/Minor Storm on Day 1 due to the coronal hole fast wind. Any CME influence on Day 2 could bring further Active to G1/Minor Storm intervals, and a chance of G2/Moderate Storms. This activity gradually easing during Day 3, likely becoming Quiet to Unsettled by the end of the period.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to continue at background levels, but with a slight chance of solar radiation reaching S1-S2/Minor-Moderate Radiation Storm.