Space Weather Forecast Headline:  Slight chance of isolated G1/Minor geomagnetic storms at first on day 1 (03 Aug). Chance of isolated Moderate class flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with isolated Common class flares. 

There are currently seven regions on the visible disc. The largest and most notable being two bipolar regions located in close proximity in the north, now approaching centre disc, forming the main potential for notable activity. The larger and more southern region comprises a moderately large lead spot with a clustering of peripheral minor spots to the south. These are still showing some development with a weak delta configuration evident in one of the spots. The smaller bipolar region lies just to the northeast and is showing overall weakening in recent imagery. Remaining regions are relatively simpler, smaller and largely stable, with a moderate size bipolar region in the southwest quadrant perhaps providing the greater flare potential, although this has shown recent decay in its trailing portion.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.  

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The 30 July CME arrived at L1 around 02/1130UTC. Solar wind speeds, as observed by SOLAR-1, increased sharply from just below 300 km/s to 350km/s as the CME arrived, with a further more gradual increase following, peaking 439km/s at 02/1717 UTC. Winds have recently eased below 400km/s at times after 02/2200 UTC. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak until the CME arrival, again sharply increasing to Moderate and remaining so thereafter, although with a brief peak to Strong at 02/1500 UTC. The north-south component followed similar trends with frequent Moderate negative (southward) periods following the CME arrival, before rotating to positive (northward) orientation after 02/1900 UTC, remaining mostly Moderate in strength. Geomagnetic activity increased to range from Unsettled to G1/Minor Storm (Kp 3-5) between 02/1200-2100 UTC, but was otherwise Quiet (Kp 0-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was well below the S1 Minor Radiation storm level, but slightly above Background, easing after the enhancement on 30-31 Jul. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low solar activity is expected to continue with a chance of isolated M-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun on 30 Jul  reached L1 around 02/1130UTC with the bulk of the material passing ahead of Earth. A further CME from a weak filament eruption from the southeast disc on 31 Jul is expected to miss Earth, passing ahead on Day 1 (03 Aug) but there is an outside chance of a weak glancing impact. No other Earth directed CMEs are currently expected.

There remains a slight chance of isolated G1/ Minor storms at first on Day 1 (03 Aug) before geomagnetic activity eases back to mainly Quiet conditions with isolated Unsettled intervals. Similar geomagnetic conditions then expected to persist through the rest of the period.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain below the S1 Minor Radiation Storm level with no further enhancements forecast.