Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. Chance of Minor Storm Day 3 (25 Oct).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with occasional Common-class flares, peaking at C3.5 at 22/0309 UTC. There are two sunspot regions on the disc, both in the northwest quadrant and showing recent slight growth. One is a relatively straightforward bipolar region. The remaining region is the largest region and currently has moderate magnetic complexity, after a previous small delta spot faded.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) were observed in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:  Solar winds showed a continued weak connection to the fast winds from a small coronal hole in the northwest, with Slightly Elevated winds throughout, peaking at 493 km/s at 22/0119 UTC. The strength of the solar winds magnetic field remained Weak. The north-south component was Weak throughout and predominantly southward but did become northward at times from 22/2155 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles persisting at background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Mainly Low activity is expected to continue, but with a slight chance of increasing to Moderate.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: 

During 21 Oct a coronal re-alignment occurred in the Sun's northern hemisphere. This appears to have been responsible for at least one CME. Analysis suggests the CME will mostly pass behind Earth's orbit, but given the central location of the lift off point, a glancing blow is possible, likely during Day 3 (25 Oct). 

Residual weak coronal hole influence is expected to gradually ease, with the current slightly elevated wind speeds erratically declining towards background through Day 1 into Day 2 (23-24 Oct). A recently developed small coronal hole, now in the western hemisphere, could bring fast winds to Earth Days 2 into Day 3 (24-25 Oct), although confidence in this is low. Therefore potentially, through Day 3 (25 Oct) a glancing CME arrival and a new weak high speed stream influence could combine.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active initially, then declining through Day 1 (23 Oct) to become Quiet to Unsettled, and mainly Quiet early Day 3 (25 Oct). Later Day 2 into Day 3 conditions may increase to become mostly Unsettled to Active with a chance of Minor storm intervals during Day 3. Through Day 4 (26th Oct) geomagnetic conditions are expected to decrease to become Quiet to Unsettled again, as any coronal hole influence declines.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles expected to persist at background levels.