Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate solar flares. Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storms on Days 2 and 3 (17-18 Jan).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity was Low with Common class flares observed, peaking with a high level Common class flare at 15/0636 UTC from a large and moderately magnetically complex region located in the southeast quadrant.

There are five numbered sunspot regions on the Earth facing disc. There are also three new yet to be numbered regions, although two of these are very small and weak. The large and moderately magnetically complex region located in the southeast quadrant remains difficult to analyse due to the viewing angle. However, there are hints that a potentially more complex magnetic configuration will come into view. In comparison a north central region on the disc is much smaller, but is currently classified as being the most magnetically complex region on the disc. The remaining regions are either smaller or magnetically simpler than these two regions, although most regions on the disc are gradually developing.

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed early on the 15th, most likely far-sided, from the northwest. It has been analysed as likely missing Earth, but with a small chance of a weak glancing blow on day 2 (17th).

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of ongoing fast wind influence. Wind speeds were often in the range 500-550km/s, but increased to 600-650km/s for much of the middle part of the day. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mainly Weak. The north-south component also varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be mostly Low, but with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth directed CMEs are currently expected. Solar wind speeds are currently Strong due to the ongoing coronal hole fast wind. A gradual and erratic decline in solar wind speeds towards Slightly Elevated to Background levels is expected through Days 1-2 (15-16 Jan). The next feature is the onset of a further fast wind, likely later on Day 3 (17 Jan). Wind speeds are expected to return Strong, likely reaching above 700 km/s.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled today and at first tomorrow (16-17th Jan). Later tomorrow activity is expected to increase to become Unsettled to Active with a chance of Minor Storm intervals. Day 4 (19th Jan) activity is expected to decline to become Quiet to Unsettled.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently at Background levels and expected to remain so in the absence of significant flare activity.