Space Weather Forecast Headline: Increasing Chance of isolated R1/Minor Radio Blackouts.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Low, with only a few Common-class flares observed. There are currently five sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. The region that has been the most active in recent days is now nearing the northwest limb and has become increasingly difficult to evaluate due to foreshortening effects. Another region, located in the northwest quadrant, continues to exhibit some development, with further emergence of umbral and penumbral structure around the intermediate spots. The remaining regions in the east are small, simple and stable.

There were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) observed in the past 24hrs.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind conditions continued to reflect the weakening influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream, with speeds gradually decreasing from 520 km/s to 440 km/s. The magnetic field remained weak throughout, and geomagnetic activity declined from initially Unsettled (Kp 3) to Quiet levels (Kp 0–2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The high energy proton flux was at or near background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low solar activity is expected to continue, though there is an increasing Chance of isolated Moderate class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections feature in the forecast. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue declining toward Slow-Ambient levels, potentially as early as Day 1 (21 May). No significant enhancements are anticipated over the following days.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain largely at Quiet to Unsettled levels (Kp1–3). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The high energy proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.