Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate solar activity likely. G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storms possible from Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) influence Day 1 into Day 2 (01-02 Jul). Another CME arrival likely on Day 3 (03 Jul), with further G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storms possible.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: High activity was observed, with a peak Strong-flare from a region in the northwest at 30/2050UTC. There are five sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The largest region is located in the south-centre disc. It has remained largely steady recently with no growth observed and retaining a couple of delta spots, but despite magnetic complexity it has shown little major flare activity. The region in the northwest is the second largest region and continues to show growth, mainly in the penumbral extent of its leading region. This region also contains at least two delta spots, and has been the main source of flare activity, most notably the Strong-flare mentioned above. An active region in the southwest did previously contain a weak delta spot in its central penumbra, although this is now difficult to see in imagery as the region rotates closer to the southwestern limb. The remaining two spots are small and simple.

The aforementioned Strong-flare from the large region in the northwest has produced a CME, with further coronagraph imagery awaited to determine any Earth-directed impacts. 

The aforementioned Strong-flare from the large sunspot in the northwest has produced a partial halo CME. This has been analysed and results show an Earth-directed component, which is likely to give a glancing blow at Earth early on Day 3 (03 Jul). However, the bulk of the plasma material appears to be deflected northwards, away from the Sun-Earth line. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds have mostly been at Slightly Elevated levels, ranging between 390-440km/s, following the arrival of a weak CME on 30 Jun. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Bt) was Moderate to Strong. The all important north-south component (Bz) was Weak to Moderate following the CME arrival, but remained largely positive (northwards). Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) at first, declining to current Quiet conditions (Kp1-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate activity with further isolated Moderate-class flares likely, and a Slight Chance of another Strong (X-class) flare.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The 26 Jun CME was observed arriving at 30/1100UTC, albeit relatively weak so far. A slow-moving CME from 27 Jun may arrive later on Day 1 ( 01 Jul). A further CME may glance Earth on Day 3 (03 Jul) following the recent Strong-flare in the northwest disc. 

Solar winds have been at Slightly Elevated levels, following the CME arrival on 30 Jun, but have recently declined towards Background levels. Solar winds may become more Slightly Elevated if a second CME (which left the Sun on 27 Jun) arrives later on Day 1 (01 Jul). The CME following the Strong-flare is likely to arrive on Day 3 (03 Jul) with solar winds perhaps rising to reach Elevated, perhaps Strong levels, before gradually declining on Day 4 (04 Jul). 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled, with Active intervals likely, due to recent CME influence, with a slight chance of G1-G2 Minor-Moderate storms intervals, if any prolonged negative Bz occurs, and the potential for a second CME arrival later on Day 1 or early Day 2 (01-02 Jul). A CME associated with the Strong-flare on 30 Jun is likely to give a glancing blow on Day 3 (03 Jul), with geomagnetic activity likely to reach Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) with a chance of G1-G2 Minor/Moderate storm (Kp5-6) intervals, and a slight chance of G3 Strong storm (Kp 7), if the CME is more impactful than anticipated.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist mostly at Background levels, however there is a risk for Solar Radiation Storms occurring on Day 1 (01 Jul) in response to any further Strong-class flares from the large sunspot region in the northwest disc.