Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of R1/Radio Blackouts. Likely G1/Minor, Chance of G2/Moderate Geomagnetic storms at times throughout.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is Low, with a peak C6.0 flare from a region in the southwest at 10/1459UTC. There are five sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. The spot in the south near the central meridian is moderately sized and has continued a slow decline, now simple. The spot in the southwest is also moderately sized but with a mostly simple magnetic configuration. The remaining regions are small and simple.

Three coronal mass ejections were observed on the afternoon of 10 Jul, one of which was from a filament eruption in the east and is expected to miss behind Earths orbit. The other two originated from the moderately sized spot in the southwest, one southward directed and the other produced a faint partial halo, both in quick succession. These have been analysed as arriving at Earth later on 13 or early 14 July, perhaps as a single event.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a waning coronal hole high speed stream. Winds speeds fell from Strong to Elevated. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Mostly Low or Very Low activity, but with a Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Up to three coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast. The first is expected to give a glancing blow late Day 1 or Day 2 (11-12 Jul). The second and third are expected to either combine as a single arrival or arrive in succession later on Day 3 or on Day 4 (13/14 Jul). 

Solar wind speeds are now Elevated, due to waning coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds are likely to erratically wane until the arrival of the 09 Jul CME later Day 1 or on Day 2 (11-12 Jul), when speeds may increase slightly, before easing into Day 3 (13 Jul). Later on Day 3 or early Day 4 (13 or 14 Jul), the two 10 Jul CMEs are likely to arrive, raising speeds back to Elevated, perhaps briefly Strong.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled at first on Day 1 (11 Jul) increasing to Active, with Likely G1/Minor storms and a Chance of isolated G2/Moderate storm intervals late Day 1 into Day 2 (11-12 Jul), then again later Day 3 into Day 4 (13-14 Jul) due to coronal mass ejection arrivals. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to remain at background levels.