Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A solar wind enhancement is expected to arrive early Saturday 31 Oct, increasing auroral activity. Aurora sightings become likely Saturday and Sunday nights across northern Scotland, with a chance of sightings across other parts of Scotland and perhaps northern England and similar magnetic latitudes Saturday night, where skies are clear. Monday night onwards auroral activity is expected to reduce.
Southern Hemisphere
A solar wind enhancement is expected to arrive early Saturday 31 Oct UTC, increasing auroral activity. Aurora sightings become likely Saturday and Sunday (southern hemisphere) nights across the far south of New Zealand, with a chance of sightings across other parts of southern New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes Saturday (southern hemisphere) night, where skies are clear. Monday night onwards auroral activity is expected to reduce.
Issued at: 02:00 (GMT) on Sat 31 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor Geomagnetic Storm conditions Expected Day 1 (31 Oct), with a Chance of Moderate storm conditions.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Very Low with no notable flares observed in the past 24 hours. There are two simple and small sunspot regions on the visible disc, both in the northeast and either stable or showing little change.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, were at Background levels, peaking at 375 km/s at 30/2207 UTC. The strength of the solar wind's magnetic field was predominantly Weak until late in the day, apart for briefly reaching Moderate levels around 30/0700UTC, likely associated with a weak transient CME arrival. After 30/2210 UTC the magnetic field was mainly at Moderate levels. The north-south component was Weak, while favouring a southward orientation, then late in the day occasionally touching Moderate negative values. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet increasing Active 30/2100-2400 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles persisting at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Very Low or Low activity is expected, with no significant sunspot regions currently on the Earth-facing disc and none expected to rotate on from the far side.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A connection to faster solar winds from a coronal hole is expected later early Day 1 (31 Oct) with Elevated or Strong solar winds is expected early Day 1 (31 Oct) peaking late Day 1 into Day 2 (31 Oct-01 Nov). Through Day 3 (02 Nov) the solar wind is expected to gradually decline to reach Slightly Elevated levels, then possibly down to Background levels through Day 4 (03 Nov).
Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions are likely to start Day 1 (31 Oct), before increasing with the arrival of fast winds from CH07/+, with Active to Minor Storm conditions expected. There is a chance of Moderate storms. Later Day 2 (01 Nov) and into Day 3 (02 Nov) geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to become Quiet to Unsettled, and then mostly Quiet by the end of the forecast period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles expected to persist at Background.
Issued at: 01:13 (GMT) on Sat 31 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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