Space Weather Forecast Headline:  Slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low in the last 24 hours, peaking with an isolated Common-class flare. from a sunspot region in the southwest of the disc.  There are currently six sunspot regions on the visible disc. A sunspot region in northwest remains the largest sunspot are, comprising a moderately large leader with a decreasing number of minor peripheral spots. There are two sunspot regions close to the western limb that are becoming increasingly difficult to analyse and are expected to rotate off the visible disc soon. The remaining regions are small and simple.

Two slow Coronal Mass Ejections were detected on 03 Aug, associated with filament eruptions, though after analysis both are expected to miss Earth. A wide Coronal Mass Ejection from the northwest was detected on 04 Aug, with a possible glancing blow Day 3 (08 Aug).

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds were Background to Slightly Elevated, but slowly decreased to around 350 km/s over the past day. The Interplanetary Magnetic field, Bt, was weak. The north-south component, Bz, was weak and variable. However, since around 05/2100 UTC it has been come generally negative, but still remains weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is now near background. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low solar activity is expected to continue, with a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Two slow Coronal Mass Ejections were detected on 03 Aug, though these are expected to miss Earth. A wide CME from the northwest was detected on 04 Aug, which may give a possible glancing blow Day 3 (08 Aug).

Solar winds are now Slow-Ambient, and likely to remain at similar levels through much of the period. A narrow coronal hole evident in the southeast, is likely to be a little too far south to influence the current forecast, though should this connect with Earth it may give a slight enhancement to Slightly elevated levels on Day 3 (08 Aug).

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet (Kp0-2), with a chance of Unsettled (Kp3) intervals for much of the period. On Day 3 (08 Aug), geomagnetic activity may rise to Unsettled (Kp3) with a chance of Active (Kp4) intervals, and a slight chance of an isolated G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm (Kp5) interval due to possible glancing Coronal Mass Ejection and coronal hole high speed stream influences.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to continue at Background.