Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Likely, Chance G2/Moderate Geomagnetic Storms Days 1 & 2. Chance G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Days 3 & 4. R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts Likely throughout.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, peaking with an Moderate-class flare at 10/1510 UTC.  There are six sunspot regions on the visible disc. The most complex is in the northwest. It retains significant magnetic complexity although is now reducing in size. The newer region near the southeast limb is now the largest. It appears to have a simple, bipolar structure at present. The remaining regions are small and simple, with a new small and simple region having rotated around the northeast limb.

A coronal mass ejection was observed on 10 Oct, associated with the Moderate-class flare from the complex spot in the northwest. This coronal mass ejection was a wide and fast, directed ahead and above Earths orbit. A possible glancing blow is most likely on Day 2 (12 Oct). 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated a significant coronal mass ejection arrival at 10/1434 UTC. Solar wind speeds were background to Slightly Elevated initially, before rising erratically to Peak Very Strong at 10/1752 UTC, then fell back to Strong. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly Weak to Moderate initially, but became Very Strong, peaking at 10/1519 UTC, then erratically fell back to Strong thereafter. The north-south component was generally Weak and southward directed (negative) initially, but became Very Strongly northward directed (Positive) then Strongly southward directed (negative) after 10/1435 UTC, and has since become largely northward directed (positive) and Weak after 10/2030UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4) initially with two G3/Strong (Kp7) intervals and a single G2/Moderate (Kp6) interval after 10/1500 UTC.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation has been at mostly background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with further Moderate-class flares likely and a slight chance of Strong flares, mainly from the complex region in the northwest, but perhaps the newly numbered region near the southeast limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There remains a chance of another portion of the 08 Oct coronal mass ejection to arrive during Day 1 (11 Oct). A further coronal mass ejection was observed on 10 Oct, associated with a Moderate-class flare from the complex spot in the northwest. This may give a glancing blow on Day 2 (12 Oct). 

Solar wind speeds are currently Strong. Solar wind speeds should relax back to Elevated or Slightly Elevated during Day 1 barring any further possible coronal mass ejection enhancements. The next significant coronal hole high speed stream is due to arrive later Day 2 (12 Oct), or Day 3 (13 Oct). Speeds from this coronal hole are expected to reach Elevated to Strong, though due to it's negative polarity, it is not favoured for significant geomagnetic response at this time of year.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be elevated initially in the wake of the coronal mass ejection and possible combined fast winds from 10 Oct. G1/Minor storming (Kp5) remains Likely, with a Chance of G2/Moderate (Kp6) intervals and a Slight Chance of a G3/Strong (Kp7) interval. Geomagnetic activity should then ease later Day 1 (11 Oct), barring any further coronal mass ejection arrival, to Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4). On Day 2 (12 Oct), due to possible combined arrivals of the 10 Oct coronal mass ejection and fast winds, G1/Minor storms (Kp5) are Likely, with a Chance of G2/Moderate intervals (Kp6) and a Slight Chance of an isolated G3/Strong (Kp7) storm interval. Through Days 3 and 4 (13-14 Oct), there is a reducing Chance of G1/Minor Storms (Kp5) and Slight Chance of G2/Moderate Storms (Kp6).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight chance of S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storms throughout the period.