Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at predominantly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible Saturday night into Sunday due to a combination of fast solar winds and the potential of a glancing coronal mass ejection. However, any visible aurora will likely be limited to northern Scotland and similar latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible during the southern hemisphere Saturday night into Sunday due to a combination of fast solar winds and the potential of a glancing CME (coronal mass ejection). However, any visibility will likely remain limited to high latitudes such as New Zealand's south island.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Likelihood of further Moderate Solar flares. Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Days 1-2 (25-26 Apr)
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been High, with two Strong Solar flares from a sunspot region in the west, the peak being a strong flare at 24/0813UTC.
There are now eight sunspot regions on the visible disc, six of which are numbered with AR4424 added in the northeast disk. The largest and most magnetically complex is AR4420 approaching the northern central disk. This region continues to show signs of growth amongst its intermediate portion, with a complex magnetic structure evident. The most active flare producing region is AR4419 which is approaching the western limb. AR4423 in the southeast has also shown some recent growth and complexity. A new region is now rotating over the eastern limb. The remaining regions are smaller and comparatively magnetically simple.
CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were seen originating from the sunspot region in the far west in association with Strong and Moderate class flares in the past 24 hours. Analysis is ongoing, but none at this stage are expected to have had a significant Earth-directed component.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds have now declined to background levels around 390 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was Weak, with the north-south component variable in direction and also Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at near Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate to High solar activity is expected to continue at first, with a likelihood of occasional Moderate solar flares and a slight chance of further isolated Strong solar flares. Flare risk expected to decrease slightly Day 3 (27 Apr) onwards.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A minor solar wind enhancement is expected associated with faster solar wind influence, most likely arriving later on Day 1 (25 Apr) into Day 2 (26 Apr), with solar winds likely to increase to Slightly Elevated levels for a time. A CME associated with a Moderate solar flare at 23/0459UTC from sunspot region AR4420 may also give a glancing blow at Earth during Day 2 (26 April), but this is currently low confidence.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) initially. Activity likely increasing to become Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4), with a chance of G1/Minor Storms (Kp 5) with any fast wind onset later Day 1 into Day 2 (25-26 Apr), combined with the possibility of any glancing CME impacts. Through Day 3 into Day 4 (27-28 Apr) geomagnetic activity is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled levels (Kp1-3) once again.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently expected to remain at generally Background levels, although with an ongoing slight chance of enhancement following any significant Solar flare activity.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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