Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Slightly elevated solar winds associated with a coronal hole fast wind gives a slight chance of aurora for higher latitude locations where skies are clear. Activity is expected to reduce after the coming night (17 Mar) as the influence of the fast wind wanes. However, a coronal mass ejection (CME) which left the Sun on 16 Mar, is anticipated to arrive on 19 Mar, which is likely to give the chance of aurora at higher latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Slightly elevated solar winds associated with a coronal hole fast wind gives a slight chance of aurora for higher latitude locations where skies are clear. Activity is expected to reduce after the coming night (17 Mar) as the influence of the fast wind wanes. However, a coronal mass ejection (CME) which left the Sun on 16 Mar, is anticipated to arrive on 19 Mar, which is likely to give the chance of aurora at higher latitudes, where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: A coronal mass ejection (CME) is anticipated to arrive at Earth on 19-20 Mar, with G1-G2/Minor-Moderate storms likely. Further CME arrivals are likely on 20-21 Mar.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity reached Moderate levels, with a peak Moderate-class flare observed at 17/0904 UTC from a sunspot region near the south-centre disc. There are currently four sunspot regions on the visible disc. The main source of recent activity is the region approaching centre disc in the south. This region displays some magnetic complexity, comprising a large, mature negative-polarity spot surrounded by several smaller peripheral positive spots. The other regions are small, magnetically simple and either generally stable or showing only slow evolution.
A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with an M2.7 flare from the sunspot in near south-centre disc on 16 Mar is likely to arrive at Earth on Day 2 (19 Mar), probably late in the day, or possibly early on Day 3 (20 Mar).
Further CMEs may have occurred in association with two filament eruptions from the south-centre disc at around 17/0300 UTC and the aforementioned peak M1.3 flare from AR4392 at 17/0904 UTC. These have been analysed and results show possible weak arrivals on Days 3 and 4 (20-21 Mar). The combination of the 16 Mar CME and further CMEs following closely behind could bring further geomagnetic enhancements at the end of the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a coronal hole fast wind with solar winds initially at Elevated levels (around 540km/s) but gradually waned to Slightly Elevated levels, below 450km/s. The Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-2) throughout.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate solar activity is expected, but with an ongoing chance of isolated M-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds are expected to remain at Slightly Elevated levels, as the coronal hole fast wind continues to slowly wane throughout the period. Meanwhile, a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the M2.7 on the 16 Mar is anticipated to arrive at Earth on either late on Day 2 (19 Mar) or early on Day 3 (20 Mar). Further weak CMEs are likely to arrive on Days 3 and 4 (20-21 Mar).
Geomagnetic activity expected to be mostly Quiet (Kp0-2) on Day 1 (18 Mar). The anticipated CME arrival either late on Day 2 (19 Mar) or early Day 3 (20 Mar) is likely to enhance geomagnetic activity, increasing to Active (Kp 4), with G1-G2/Minor-Moderate geomagnetic storms likely. Further weak CMEs are likely to arrive on Days 3 and 4 (20-21 Mar), which could prolong the enhanced geomagnetic activity, with further G1-G2 Minor/Moderate storm intervals. There is a very slight chance of G3 (strong) storm during this period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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