| No. | Type | Alerts | Warnings | Watches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Proton Flux 10MeV Warning |
S1:
13:13 (GMT) on Fri 31 Jul 2026 to 23:59 (GMT) on Fri 31 Jul 2026 |
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Only minor enhancements to the auroral oval are expected over the next couple of days. This includes those associated with either a weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) or the peripheral influence of fast solar winds. A more likely enhancement is due early 02 Aug (UTC) due to a glancing blow from the 30 Jul CME. Aurora may be visible across Scotland and similar latitudes, where clear skies and shorter hours of darkness allow.
Southern Hemisphere
Only minor enhancements to the auroral oval are expected over the next couple of days. This includes those associated with either a weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) or the peripheral influence of fast solar winds. A more likely enhancement is due early 02 Aug (UTC) due to a glancing blow from the 30 Jul CME. Aurora may be visible across southern New Zealand and similar latitudes.
Issued at: 13:39 (GMT) on Fri 31 Jul 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. Likelihood of G1-G2/Minor-Moderate geomagnetic storms early day 3 (02 Aug) from 30 Jul Coronal Mass Ejection.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has reached Moderate levels following a low level Moderate class flare peaking at 30/1700 UTC.
There are currently eight regions on the Earth-facing disc. The region approaching the northwest limb has been the most active. Another region in the northwest has seen some recent growth, exhibiting some magnetic complexity. The largest region is in the northeast, but has remained fairly stable, although another region immediately to the northeast has seen recent growth. The region approaching centre disc has also exhibited some magnetic complexity, but appears to be weakening. The remaining regions are either stable or smaller, and mostly magnetically simple.
The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the Moderate flare on 30 Jul has been analysed, with a glancing arrival likely early day 3 (02 Aug). No new CMEs have been observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind observations showed weak slow wind conditions with Background speeds, around 320km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak, with the north-south component also weak and occasionally southward. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) started the period at Background levels, but rapidly increased to S1/Minor radiation storm levels following the Moderate class flare, peaking at 30/2055 UTC. It has since fallen below S1 levels, on a slow declining trend.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely, but with a chance of rising to Moderate due to isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak CME may deliver glancing impacts late day 1 (31 Jul). The 30 Jul CME resulting from the Moderate flare and filament eruption from the region in the northwest has been modelled, with an estimated arrival time early on day 3 (02 Aug). Outside of any CME arrivals Background slow winds conditions are expected to largely prevail, with only a slight enhancement possible from any fast winds, the bulk of which is expected to pass mostly south of Earth.
Quiet activity is generally expected with isolated Unsettled spells, with a chance of Active intervals from any CME glance or fast wind enhancement until late day 2 or early day 3 (01-02 Aug), when there is a potential for G1-G2/Minor-Moderate geomagnetic storms from the 30 Jul CME arrival.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is now below S1/Minor radiation storm levels and is expected to continue gradually declining through days 1 and 2 (31 Jul to 01 Aug), returning to Background levels later in the period.
Issued at: 12:26 (GMT) on Fri 31 Jul 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: