Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Visible aurora is unlikely until a possible connection to a weak coronal hole during Oct 24 (UTC), which could lead to a slight chance of visible aurora across the far north of Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes. On 25 Oct (UTC) there may be a glancing blow from a weak Coronal Mass Ejection, giving a chance of aurora across northern Scotland where skies are clear on Sunday night (UTC).
Southern Hemisphere
Visible aurora is unlikely until a possible connection to a weak coronal hole during Oct 24 (UTC), which could lead to a slight chance of visible aurora across the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes. On 25 Oct (UTC) there may be a glancing blow from a weak Coronal Mass Ejection, giving a chance of aurora across far southern New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes where skies are clear.
Issued at: 13:33 (GMT) on Fri 23 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. Chance of G1/Minor Storm Day 3 (25 Oct).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with occasional Common-class flares. There are two sunspot regions on the disc, both in the northwest. One of these has shown signs of gaining intermediate spots, but is now approaching the limb and is therefore becoming difficult to see properly. It appears to remain a relatively straightforward bipolar region. The other is the larger of the two regions, and has started to show some fading of its intermediate spots. The limited magnetic complexity it was showing is becoming very faint.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a continued weak connection to coronal hole fast winds. Wind speeds were slightly elevated throughout, varying between 410-470 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) at first, becoming mostly Quiet (Kp 1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles persisting at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Mainly Low activity is expected to continue, but with a slight chance of increasing to Moderate.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: During 21 October, a re-alignment of the Sun's outer layer was seen in the northern hemisphere, causing the creation of a new coronal hole, and producing a CME. Analysis of the CME suggests it will mostly pass behind Earth's orbit, but a glancing blow is possible, likely during Day 3 (25 Oct). Residual weak influence from the current fast wind is expected to continue to ease, erratically declining towards background through Day 1 into Day 2 (23-24 Oct). The new coronal hole could give enhanced solar winds Days 2 into Day 3 (24-25 Oct), although confidence in this is low.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3) at first. Later Day 2 into Day 3, conditions may increase to become mostly Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) with a chance of G1/Minor storm (Kp 5) intervals during Day 3, although confidence here is low. Through Day 4 (26 Oct) geomagnetic conditions are expected to decrease to become Quiet to Unsettled once again.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles expected to persist at background levels.
Issued at: 12:19 (GMT) on Fri 23 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: