Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1 to G2 Minor to Moderate Storms with chance G3 Strong Storms on day 2 (08 Jun) due to arrival of CME from 06 Jun. Isolated Moderate-class flares likely.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Moderate with a single Moderate-class flares observed from a small and simple region in the southeast. There are eight relatively small sunspot regions on the disc. The most complex and developmental region is in the northwest, and has seen a number of small mixed magnetic polarity spots emerge and coalesce, resulting in a complex magnetic structure. Ongoing growth has also been observed in a region in the northeast, however this maintains a simpler bipolar structure. The previously active region in the northwest continues to show a simplifying trend, with the decay of its small spots that surround its main positive polarity spot. The other regions are either showing slight decay or have stabilised. 

The Moderate flare produced a significant Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). While the bulk of the material is passing south and east of Earth, the CME is both relatively fast and wide, giving it an Earth-directed component. This is expected to arrive at Earth early on day 2 (08 Jun).

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Recent CME and coronal hole sourced fast wind influence only erratically eased. Solar wind speeds declined from being Strong at 600-650km/s to be mainly Elevated at 550-600 km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field was Weak, with the north-south component (Bz) also Weak and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) until 08/1500 UTC, then became Quiet (Kp2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) increased in response to the Moderate flare, however this remained well below the S1 Minor Radiation Storm level.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with an ongoing likelihood of isolated Moderate class flares. There is a slight chance of a Strong (X-class) flare, mainly from the developing and more complex region in the northwest. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The CME from the Moderate flare on 06 Jun is expected to arrive early on day 2 (08 Jun). Current Elevated Solar winds are expected to be easing to be Slightly Elevated ahead of this arrival, but likely become Strong again when it occurs. No other notable enhancements are currently forecast, however the CME influence could continue into day 3 (09 Jun), before easing. Mainly Quiet geomagnetic activity at first is expected to increase to be G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storm with a chance of G3 Strong Storms with the CME arrival. There is a chance that G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storm activity persists into day 3, before easing back to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled by day 4 (10 Jun).  

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has a chance of rising further on day 1-2 (07-08 Jun) as the particles are swept towards Earth with the CME. This brings a chance of a brief S1 Minor Radiation Storm, before count rates fall back towards Background shortly after the CME has arrived. There is also a slight chance of further enhancements if any more significant solar flares occur.