Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm Friday 14 August.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity remained very low, with no significant x-ray flares recorded (below common-class throughout).

There are currently six numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc, and one small and weak yet to be numbered region in the southeast. The most significant region is a moderately sized region approaching centre disc, as this region has grown through the period to become magnetically complex as a small delta spot has recently developed within the penumbra of the lead spot. The remaining regions on the disc are magnetically simple unipolar or bipolar regions, most are small and have only shown slight changes through the period.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) were observed in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were predominantly at background levels of 400 km/s or below, but did occasionally reach Slightly Elevated levels, peaking at 412 km/s at 13/0154 UTC. The strength  of the solar winds magnetic strength was at weak levels, as was the important north-south component which weakly fluctuated.

The net result of the above solar wind measures was for Quiet geomagnetic activity increasing to Unsettled at the end of the period.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity will most likely be Low, with isolated Common class flares. One moderately sized region should depart the disc to end the UTC weekend. Two returning regions may rotate onto the disc through the next two days, but they are unlikely to be significant. Therefore, there is only a slight chance of isolated Moderate class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CMEs feature in the forecast. The current solar wind regime may give way to a solar wind enhancement from a coronal hole later Day 1 or early Day 2 (14 and 15 Aug). Should the enhancement arrive the initial Quiet to Unsettled activity is expected to increase to become Unsettled to Active, with a Chance of Minor geomagnetic storms intervals, later Day 1 (14 Aug) into Day 2 (15 Aug). Activity then declines to become increasingly Quiet through Days 3 and 4 (16 and 17 Aug).   

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected - given the lack of suitably complex, well-connected sunspot regions (i.e. larger regions in the west).