Space Weather Forecast Headline: Increased geomagnetic activity expected in the coming days.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity is Low, with a peak flare of C5.8 at 12/1720.  

There are seven sunspot regions on the facing-disc, however, all are magnetically simple and generally small. All regions were either stable, or in slight decay.

No Earth directed CMEs were observed during this period. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1, have been slightly elevated to background over the past 24 hours, on a generally declining trend.  They are currently around 340-370km/s. The IMF, Bt, was Weak. The north-south component, Bz, was oscillating weakly between -6/+6nT. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to remain Low or Very Low with only a slight chance of reaching Moderate levels should any isolated Moderate-class flares occur.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A low-confidence, but very slow Coronal Mass Ejection could arrive at Earth on Day 2 (14 Sep), but any effects (should an impact occur) are expected to be minor. 

 The next significant solar wind enhancement is due to take place between late Day 1 (13 Sep) and early Day 2 (14 Sep) with the transition into the fast winds of a coronal hole. This is a persistent feature and matches well with an equivalent position relative to 27-day recurrence, so similar wind are expected. Solar wind speeds on the last rotation reached around 400km/s on the equivalent of early Day 2, then increasing to around 550-600km/s (elevated to strong) into early Day 3 (15 Sep).

On Day 3 (15 Sep) a second recurrent fast wind enhancement is expected from another coronal hole. This feature may connect with Earth earlier than the equivalent period on the last rotation. Solar winds of around 600km/s were observed previously and it is considered likely that similarly high speeds will be reached between Days 3 and 4 (15-16 Sep). 

Geomagnetic activity will start the period at Quiet or perhaps Unsettled levels, increasing later on Day 1 (13 Sep) with peak Active levels likely and a slight chance of Kp5/G1 intervals occurring. Into Day 2 and 3 (14 and 15 Sep), mainly Unsettled to Active geomagnetic activity is forecast, but with a reasonable chance of isolated Kp5/G1 intervals being observed. During Day 4 (16 Sep) activity should be at Quiet to Active levels, with a decreasing likelihood of higher levels of geomagnetic activity over time.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is at background with no Solar Radiation storms expected.