Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The main chance of any aurora sighting will be limited to the northernmost geomagnetic latitudes. Due to a glancing Coronal Mass Ejection on 14 Oct UTC, there is a chance this briefly could extend further south, such as into the far north of Scotland, however this is low confidence.
Southern Hemisphere
The main chance of any aurora sighting will be limited to the southernmost geomagnetic latitudes. Due to a glancing Coronal Mass Ejection on 14 Oct (UTC), there is a chance this briefly could extend further north, such as into the far south of New Zealand, however this is low confidence.
Issued at: 03:25 (GMT) on Wed 14 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight Chance of G1 Minor Storms day 1 (14 Oct) from a weak Coronal Mass Ejection arrival. Chance of isolated Moderate class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with isolated Common-class flares, with the strongest of these from the region which is now just over the northwest limb. There are currently seven sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, however the majority of these are small and simple. The exception is the large region in the southeast, which has remained inactive, but also seen the proliferation of small spots around its trailer and leader spots, along with increased magnetic complexity.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak CME arrival, at 13/0022 UTC, was followed by the onset of the fast winds from a coronal hole. Solar wind speeds saw a small jump from Slightly Elevated, 450-500km/s, to Elevated, ranging 450-540km/s from 13/0022 UTC, before a more gradual rise was observed from 13/0800 UTC, reaching mainly Strong at 600-650km/s by 13/1700 UTC. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), briefly reached Strong with the CME arrival, but was otherwise mainly Moderate before declining to be Weak at by the end of the period. The north-south component was predominately directed northward and Moderate in strength. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisting at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue with a chance of rising to Moderate, mainly due to any reactivation of the large region in the southeast.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The are two glancing CMEs that may be observed. The stronger and faster, on day 1 (14 Oct) from a filament eruption from the southeast disc on 12 Oct, however this is only moderate confidence. A much slower and even lower confidence arrival is then possible on day 4 (17 Oct) from a filament eruption later the same day. Otherwise ongoing fast winds of CH02/- are expected days 1-2 (14-15 Oct), before easing days 3-4 (16-17 Oct). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of Active intervals day 1-2 (14-15 Oct), and a slight chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals if the CME glance is observed. Activity then easing to be mainly Quiet day 3-4 (16-17 Oct) with only a slight chance of Active intervals from the second CME arrival.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is only a slight chance of Solar Radiation Storms through the period, with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) expected to persist at Background.
Issued at: 00:10 (GMT) on Wed 14 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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