Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at Background for much of this period. A slight enhancement is possible later 02 Mar UTC, which could just allow for some glimpses from the far north of the UK or similar geomagnetic latitudes, however this is low confidence.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at Background for much of this period. A slight enhancement is possible later 02 Mar UTC, which could just allow for some glimpses from the far south of New Zealand or similar geomagnetic latitudes, however this is low confidence.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 early in UTC week.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity was Low, with frequent small Common-class x-ray flares, peaking at 01/0206UTC with a mid-ranking flare from a fading sunspot region in the southeast.
There are now six sunspot regions on the Sun, with the emergence of two small magnetically bipolar regions in the northwest. The main change in the period was a gradual decrease in area of the southeastern region mentioned above, and a more fragmented appearance here. The other main change was the arrival of a new region in the northeast - given its proximity to the limb it may yet reveal distant trailing spots, however for now it appears magnetically unipolar.
There was some minor prominence activity from the eastern solar horizon early in the UTC day, while a 'filament' (arc of plasma) visible in extreme UV imagery rose increasingly clear of the solar 'surface', but has yet to culminate in any lift-off. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed a slow regime. The solar wind speed fell slightly overall, from early slightly elevated highs to reach background by the period's end. The number of particles in the solar wind was at background, with the associated magnetic field also at background, with a varying a small-scale north-south component.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was for provisionally quiet geomagnetic activity throughout.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low solar activity is likely to continue, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class x-ray flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CMEs are now en route. The next fast wind enhancement may arise from a fragmentary minor coronal holes on days 1-2 (02-03 March).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet, but with a Slight Chance of G1 Minor Storms days 1-2 (02-03 March).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected given the dearth of complex sunspot regions in suitable locations.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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