Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at normal background levels on Sunday and Monday (UTC), but may see an enhancement later on Tuesday due to a glancing Coronal Mass Ejection and the onset of fast solar winds. However, these are both low confidence. Any aurora that does occur is likely to remain limited to higher geomagnetic latitudes, perhaps briefly extending as far south as northern Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at normal background levels on Monday (UTC), but may see an enhancement later on Tuesday due to a glancing Coronal Mass Ejection and the onset of fast solar winds. However, these are both low confidence. Any aurora that does occur is likely to remain limited to higher geomagnetic latitudes, perhaps briefly extending far enough north to be visible from the southernmost parts of New Zealand.
Issued at: 20:23 (GMT) on Sun 9 Aug 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Active-G1 Minor storms days 3-4 (11-12 Aug).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Very Low with only isolated Background class solar flares observed. There are two simple and stable active regions on the disc.
An eruption was observed from the north-centre disc from 08/0300 UTC. The subsequent Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) largely passes above Earth, however there is the potential for a glancing impact day 3-4 (11-12 Aug). A further eruption was also observed off the southwest disc soon after 08/0700 UTC. This has been assessed as missing, passing ahead of Earth.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds, as measured by SOLAR-1, started at Background near 330km/s but rose to Slightly Elevated levels around 430km/s. Solar wind density began generally above average, peaking 32ppcc at 08/1638 UTC before easing back to average levels later. Interplanetary Magnetic field, Bt, started the period Strong, however it slowly eased to Weak values by the end of the period. The north-south component initially varied between +13nT and -15nT, with a long period of persistent negative (southward) orientated field from 08/1615 UTC until 08/2359UTC. Geomagnetic activity featured a G2 Moderate storm interval (Kp6) observed 08/1200-1500 UTC and 08/1800-2100 UTC. Following these storms geomagnetic activity has been Quiet to Unsettled (Kp2-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Very Low activity is expected, with only a slight chance of rising to Low with isolated Common-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Current CME influence is expected to continue to ease. A further CME arrival is then possible with a glancing impact on day 3-4 (11-12 Aug). This is due to the 08 Aug north-centre disc filament eruption, although any observed arrival is low confidence, with the CME mainly passing north of Earth. However this could arrive alongside the onset of a the weak fast winds from CH85/+, a small feature in the centre disc. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet for much of the period. However any CME glance or fast wind onset later on day 3 or day 4 (11-12 Apr) will bring a further chance for a spell of Unsettled to Active with G1 Minor Storm intervals and a slight chance of G2 Moderate Storms.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background.
Issued at: 12:14 (GMT) on Sun 9 Aug 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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