Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

There is a chance of some slight enhanced aurora at high latitude late Thursday night UTC (13 Aug) due to a connection to coronal hole fast winds, but this is considered more likely to occur through Friday, which may lead to some slight enhancement to the auroral oval Friday night UTC (14 Aug). Thereafter aurora is expected to revert to background levels.

Southern Hemisphere

There is a chance of some slight enhanced aurora at high latitude late Thursday night UTC (13 Aug) due to a connection to coronal hole fast winds, but this is considered more likely to occur through Friday, which may lead to some slight enhancement to the auroral oval Friday night UTC (14 Aug). Thereafter aurora is expected to revert to background levels.

Issued at: 02:05 (GMT) on Thu 13 Aug 2026

Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 from Day 2 (14 Aug).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is Low with isolated Common-class flares. There are currently six sunspot regions on the visible disc, all of which are relatively small and simple at time of writing, although most have shown some slight enhancements in recent hours. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds were slightly elevated to background, ranging between 460km/s to 380km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak throughout. The north-south component was also Weak and variable. The geomagnetic activity has been Quiet (Kp1-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at Background.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is expected to remain Low, with only a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: CH86/+ is expected to connect with Earth from later Day 1 (13 Aug), or more likely through Day 2 (14 Aug), but this is also low confidence. 

Geomagnetic activity may increase late Day 1 (13 Aug) or more likely through Day 2 (14 Aug) upon connection to CH86/+, to bring a likelihood of Active intervals and a chance of G1/Minor geomagnetic storms, which may also continue into Day 3 (15 Aug), before gradually waning on Day 4 (16 Aug).   

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to continue at Background.

Issued at: 00:22 (GMT) on Thu 13 Aug 2026

Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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