Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No auroral enhancements are forecast for much of this period, with any visibility likely to remain restricted to high latitudes. There is a possibility of coronal hole fast winds developing on 16 November, which may bring slight enhancements, potentially allowing visibility across parts of northern Scotland and similar latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
No auroral enhancements are forecast for much of this period, with any visibility likely to remain restricted to high latitudes. There is a possibility of coronal hole fast winds developing on 16 November, which may bring slight enhancements, potentially allowing visibility across parts of southern New Zealand and similar latitudes.
Issued at: 01:01 (GMT) on Sat 14 Nov 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Decreasing chance of Moderate class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with only common class flares observed. There are currently eight sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The region located near the southwest limb has historically been the largest and most active region, but has continued to decay and lose its magnetic complexity. This region is expected to rotate off the disc on Day 1 (14 Nov). Although several other spots have seen some slight development, the remaining regions on the disc remain small and simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a continuing gradual decline of coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds ranged from Slightly Elevated to background, between 420 to 350km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be mostly at Low levels, but with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares from the larger region near the southwest limb. A new region looks to be emerging from around the northeast limb, which will continue to monitored as its comes into a better viewing angle in the coming days.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Recent coronal hole fast winds have now declined to background levels with no further enhancements expected until Days 3-4 (16-17 Nov), when further fast winds may connect with Earth.
Mainly Quiet (Kp0-2) geomagnetic conditions are expected until connection with fast winds from CH10/+ possibly on Days 3-4 (16-17 Nov), at which point Unsettled to Active intervals (Kp3-4) are possible with only a slight chance of an isolated G1/Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp5).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation storms are not expected, with just a very slight chance of exceeding the S1/Minor radiation storm level.
Issued at: 00:30 (GMT) on Sat 14 Nov 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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