Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to be mostly at background levels. However, there is the potential for a glancing CME arriving into early UTC on 13 May. This may bring an enhancement to the auroral oval, perhaps allowing sightings across northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to be mostly at background levels. However, there is the potential for a glancing CME arriving into early UTC on 13 May. This may bring an enhancement to the auroral oval, perhaps allowing sightings across southern New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes during 13 May, where skies are clear.
Issued at: 00:10 (GMT) on Mon 11 May 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate solar flares. Chance of G1/Minor storm intervals Day 3 (13 May).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity increased to Moderate following a mid-level Moderate-class flare from AR4436 in the northeast.
There are currently five sunspot regions on the visible disc. AR4432, a large bipolar region located in the northwest, has shown further areal growth and development, with the main lead/trailer spots showing consolidation. It also maintains some mixed magnetic structure. AR4436, towards the northeast limb has shown some additional minor spot emergence on its southern periphery, and was the source of the aforementioned Moderate flare. Remaining regions are smaller, stable and magnetically simple.
A large, fast CME (coronal mass ejection) followed the Moderate-class flare from AR4436 in the northeast, with much of the ejecta directed to the east. However, a faint partial halo is also discernible. Initial modelling indicates a potential Earth-directed component with a possible arrival early UTC on 13 May.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slowly declining fast wind stream. Solar wind speeds were slightly elevated, initially around 460km/s, but saw a gradual decline through the period to current levels around 400km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak, with the important north-south component also Weak, and variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy proton flux was at Background, with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to remain generally Low, but with a chance of further M-class flares, and a slight chance of isolated X-class flares, principally from AR4436 or AR4432.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A large, fast CME followed the M5.7 flare from AR4436 in the northeast, with much of the ejecta directed to the east. However, a faint partial halo is also discernible. Initial modelling indicates a potential Earth-directed component with a possible arrival early UTC on 13 May.
The recent coronal hole fast wind enhancement has subsided with winds now near Background levels. The next fast wind stream is not anticipated to become fully geoeffective until 15 May, however initial connection may begin later on Day 4 (14 May).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet (Kp 0-2), with a chance of isolated Unsettled (Kp 3) intervals through Day 1 and much of Day 2 (11 and 12 May). Modelling then indicates there is a chance of glancing blow from the 10 May CME into early Day 3 (13 May), this gives a Chance of G1/Minor storm (Kp 5) intervals. Later Day 4 (14 May) may then see the initial onset of the next stream of fast solar wind with geomagnetic activity likely to increase again, with a Slight Chance of G1/Minor storm (Kp 5) intervals developing.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected. However, there is a slight rising chance for solar radiation storms through the period.
Issued at: 00:10 (GMT) on Mon 11 May 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: