Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Strong solar winds bring a chance of aurora for higher latitude locations where skies are clear. Activity is expected to reduce later into the period as solar winds ease.
Southern Hemisphere
Strong solar winds bring a chance of aurora for higher latitude locations where skies are clear. Activity is expected to reduce later into the period as solar winds ease.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Fast solar wind influence brings a likelihood of isolated G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Day 1 (14 Mar).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity is Low, with a Common-class flare peaking at 13/2023 UTC from a sunspot region in the southeast quadrant. There are currently five sunspot regions visible on the Earth‑facing disc. The largest and most complex is the region close to the west limb, which is about to rotate off disc. The remaining regions are generally small, magnetically simple and either stable or showing slight decay over recent hours.
Analysis of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with a broad filament (arc of plasma) eruption in the south centre disc approximately 13/0030 UTC suggests a trajectory taking it below the Earths orbit. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a fast wind from a coronal hole, with solar wind speeds rising from Slightly Elevated levels to the current Strong levels, near 700km/s, with a peak of 755km/s observed at 14/0725 UTC. The Magnetic Field was moderate throughout. The north-south component varied between weak and moderate. Geomagnetic activity was generally Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4), with G1/Minor Geomagnetic storm (Kp 5) intervals 14/0000-0300UTC and 14/0600-0900 UTC, with G2/Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 6) intervals observed 13/2100-0000 UTC and 14/0300-0600 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Generally Low or Very Low solar activity is expected, but with an ongoing slight chance of isolated Moderate solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs currently feature in the forecast, although although there is a low risk of some slight peripheral influence potentially into Day 3 (16 Mar).
Geomagnetic activity expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) during Day 1 (14 Mar) under fast wind influence from CH31/+, with a likelihood of isolated G1/Minor Storms (Kp 5). Through Days 2 to 4 (15-17 Mar) activity is expected to gradually decrease in the range Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4), as the solar wind speed slowly eases.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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