Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 on Days 1 and 2 (27-28 Apr).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity was Low, with only Common-class flares observed in the past 24 hours. 

There are currently nine sunspot regions on the visible disc. However, despite the number of regions on the disc, most of the sunspots appear to be fairly stable and unlikely to pose any threat of significant flaring. The most complex region is located in the northwest, which continues its steady areal decay. Another region in the southwest quadrant has shown a similar tendency. The remaining sunspot regions are all fairly simple, relatively small, and either stable or in slight decay.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in imagery. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a gradual waning coronal hole fast wind from the southern solar hemisphere. 

The solar wind speed showed an overall slight, erratic decline from Slightly Elevated to  Background, declining from 500km/s to near 350km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was predominately weak throughout, with the important north-south component also weakly variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be Low initially, perhaps with an increasing chance of reaching Moderate later in the period, as further regions potentially rotate around the eastern limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CME arrivals are expected in the period.

A possible renewed connection to a large 'coronal hole' may occur on Day 1 (27 Apr), which could lead to an increasing Chance of reaching Active, perhaps with an isolated G1/Minor Storm interval. This risk should gradually recede into the new UTC working week as any renewed fast winds begin to wane.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected, with a slight chance of breaching the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold in response to any notable flares. This risk has been reduced relative to recent days given the quiet disc.