Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Currently there is little chance of any significant aurora being visible through this period.
Southern Hemisphere
Currently there is little chance of any significant aurora being visible through this period.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with low level Common-class flares observed.
There are currently up to ten sunspot regions on the visible disc, nine of which are numbered. Approximately half the regions are moderately sized, and of these three are moderately magnetically complex. One of these regions, in the southwest, has only recently increased its magnetic complexity due to development within it's intermediate spots, while the other moderate regions have shown recent slight decay. The remaining regions on the disc are smaller, magnetically simple and mostly decaying.
Various Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) were seen leaving the Sun during the period, in association with filament eruptions and the largest Common class flare. Analysis is currently being under taken to determine if any of these CME's will have an Earth directed component, but initial indications are that none will.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind started the period at mostly Elevated levels, reaching 500-550km/s under the influence of a solar wind enhancement. The solar wind's magnetic field was initially at mostly moderate levels, but quickly reduced to weak levels. The north-south component fluctuated through the period and was predominantly weak, but did briefly reach moderate levels at 01/0122 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. There is a very slight chance of Strong flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A fast wind enhancement is ongoing. Solar winds are expected to decline to background levels through Day 1 (2nd May) and then persist, although there is a chance of slightly elevated speeds occasionally returning from Day 2 (3rd May) due to a possible further fast wind enhancement that may reach Earth at times.
Geomagnetic activity is now expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated Active intervals Days 1 and 4 (2nd and 5th May).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is currently at background levels and likely to remain so, although there is a slight chance of exceeding the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold should any larger flares occur.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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