Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has reached Moderate following a low level Moderate class flare peaking at 30/1700UTC.

There are currently eight regions on the Earth-facing disc, none of which displayed any significant development. The largest is a region in the northeast, which is moderately magnetically complex. The most complex region is also in the northeast, with a small delta spot in it's main intermediate spot group. However, the most active region has been a moderately sized and apparently simple and stable group approaching the northwest limb. The remaining regions are smaller and mostly magnetically simple.

A filament eruption in the northwest triggered a Moderate class flare from a region in the northwest. An associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible in (currently limited) coronagraph imagery. This CME will be analysed but it is expected to have an Earth directed component.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind observations showed weak slow wind conditions with Background speeds, below 400km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak, with the north-south component also weak and occasionally southward. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) started the period at Background levels, but rapidly increased following the Moderate class flare. Minor radiation storm levels were reached at 30/1903 UTC and are currently ongoing.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low activity is likely, but with a chance of rising to Moderate due to isolated Moderate-class flares. No significant regions are expected to rotate onto the disc during the forecast period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak, slow, and faint CME may deliver glancing impacts late day 1 (31 July), with a potential weak CME that was possibly arriving early on the 30th now considered to have missed Earth. The CME arrival on day 1 is considered more likely to mostly miss Earth. Modelling is awaited for the CME that was associated with the filament eruption and M1.9 flare on the 30th, with the expectations there will be an Earth directed component. Outside of any CME arrivals Background slow winds conditions are expected to largely prevail, with only a slight enhancement possible from any fast wind from a coronal hole feature in the southern hemisphere, which is expected to pass mostly south of Earth. Quiet activity is generally expected, with isolated Unsettled spells, but also a chance of Active intervals from any CME glance or fast wind enhancement until late Day 2 or Day 3 (1st or 2nd Aug) when there is a potential for Minor geomagnetic storms should the CME from the 30th arrive.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently at Minor storms levels and is expected to gradually decline through Days 1 and 2 (31st and 1st), returning to Background levels by the end of the period, provided no further proton events occur.