Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A connection to a weak solar wind enhancement is possible later today, which could lead to a slight chance of visible aurora across the far north of Scotland, and similar magnetic latitudes, during Saturday (UTC) night where skies are clear. On 25 Oct (UTC) there may be a glancing blow from a weak Coronal Mass Ejection, giving a chance of aurora across northern Scotland where skies are clear on Sunday (UTC) night. Thereafter visible aurora is unlikely.
Southern Hemisphere
Visible aurora is unlikely until a possible connection to a weak solar wind enhancement during Oct 24 (UTC), which could lead to a slight chance of visible aurora across the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes. On 25 Oct (UTC) there may be a glancing blow from a weak Coronal Mass Ejection, giving a chance of aurora across southern New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes where skies are clear.
Issued at: 12:40 (GMT) on Sat 24 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm Day 2 (25 Oct).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with isolated Common-class flares. There are four regions on the disc, two of which are small, simple and unnumbered. A region is now straddling the limb and is therefore difficult to analyse. Its previous classification has been conserved. The largest of the two numbered regions has continued a slight spreading trend, now a long region, though is sparsely populated, with a simple magnetic structure.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a weakening connection to coronal hole fast winds. Wind speeds were Slightly Elevated to start, gradually becoming Slow-Ambient. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak and declining. The north-south component varied Weakly, and also declining. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) but increased to Active (Kp 4) 23/1800-2100 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles persisting at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Mainly Low activity is expected to continue, but with a slight chance of increasing to Moderate.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: During 21 October, a re-alignment of the Sun's outer layer was seen in the northern hemisphere, causing the creation of a new coronal hole, and producing a coronal mass ejection. Analysis of this coronal mass ejection suggests it will mostly pass behind Earth's orbit, but a glancing blow is possible, likely during Day 2 (25 Oct). Solar winds are now background. A new coronal hole could give enhanced solar winds Days 1 into Day 2 (24-25 Oct), although confidence in this is low.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled at first. Later Day 1 into Day 2, conditions may increase to become mostly Unsettled to Active with a chance of Minor geomagnetic storm intervals during Day 2, although confidence here is low. Through Days 3 and 4 (26 and 27 Oct) geomagnetic conditions are expected to decrease to become Quiet to Unsettled once again.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles expected to persist at background levels.
Issued at: 12:14 (GMT) on Sat 24 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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