Space Weather Forecast Headline:  Slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Very Low in the last 24 hours, with flare activity below Common-class levels.

There are currently five regions on the visible disc. In the northwest the largest sunspot region is located with its single moderate size alpha spot having separated in half and with some decrease in overall size. In the southwest is a modest size bipolar region, also showing some reduction in overall size. Remaining regions are small and simple.

Two slow Coronal Mass Ejections were detected on 03 Aug, associated with filament eruptions, though after analysis both are expected to miss Earth. A wide Coronal Mass Ejection from the northwest was detected on 04 Aug, with a possible glancing blow Day 3 (08 Aug).

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds were Background and on a slow downward trend from 370 km/s to 320 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic field was weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly, initially positive (northward) but trending mostly negative (southward) from 05/1500 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is at background. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Very Low solar activity is expected to continue with just a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Two slow Coronal Mass Ejections were detected on 03 Aug, though these are expected to miss Earth. A wide CME from the northwest was detected on 04 Aug, which may give a possible glancing blow Day 3 (08 Aug).

Solar winds are Slow-Ambient, and likely to remain at similar levels through much of the period. A narrow coronal hole evident in the southwest, is likely to be a little too far south to influence the current forecast, though should this connect with Earth it may give a slight enhancement to Slightly elevated levels on Day 3 (08 Aug).

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet (Kp0-2), with a chance of Unsettled (Kp3) intervals for much of the period. On Day 3 (08 Aug), geomagnetic activity may rise to Unsettled (Kp3) with a chance of Active (Kp4) intervals, and a slight chance of an isolated G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm (Kp5) interval due to possible glancing Coronal Mass Ejection and coronal hole high speed stream influences.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to continue at Background.