Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of R1/Radio Blackouts.  Likely G1, Chance of G2 at times days 1-3 (12-14 July).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is Moderate, with one M class flare from a region in the southwest. There are five sunspot regions visible on the solar disc.. The region in the southwest responsible for the flare will rotate off the visible disk soon. The other regions are stable and simple.  A CME was observed leaving the Sun shortly after midnight UTC, this has been analysed as a likely miss. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a waning coronal hole high speed stream. Winds speeds have been mostly Elevated, peaking at 580km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Mostly Low or Very Low activity, but with a Chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed on the afternoon of 10 Jul, one of which was from a filament eruption in the east and is expected to miss behind Earth's orbit. The other two originated from the moderately sized spot in the southwest, one southward directed and the other produced a faint partial halo, both in quick succession. These have been analysed as arriving at Earth later on 13 or early 14 July, perhaps as a single event.

Solar wind speeds are now Elevated, due to the waning coronal hole fast winds and possible glancing CME impact. Solar wind speeds are likely to erratically wane until  later on Day 2 or early Day 3 (13 or 14 Jul), when the two 10 Jul CMEs may arrive, raising speeds back to Elevated, perhaps briefly Strong. Winds speeds gradually easing to Slightly Elevated levels on Day 4 (15 Jul).

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled with Active intervals and a chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic storms on day 1 (12 July).  Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled at first on Day 2 (13 Jul) before increasing to Active, with Likely G1/Minor storms and a Chance of isolated G2/Moderate storm intervals,  due to possible CME arrivals. Activity reducing to Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with Active intervals on Day 4 (15 Jul). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to remain at background levels.