Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate-class solar flares. Minor storm intervals Likely Days 1 and 2 (15 and 16 May).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Low over the past 24hrs, with occasional low level Common-class flaring observed.

There are three sunspot regions on the visible disc, all bipolar regions and either small or modestly sized.  The largest region, in the northeast, displayed recent slight decay in small peripheral spots to the south of the main spot. The smallest region, located in the northwest, showed some small spot emergence in its southern portion through the period. The remaining small region, in the northwest, which currently appears to growing slightly in area.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24hrs.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds started with residual enhanced activity in association with a weak glancing CME that arrived on the 13th May, from the 10 May Moderate class flare. Solar wind speeds were initially at slightly elevated levels of 450–500km/s, before slowly declining through the rest of the period to background levels generally between 370-400km/s. The strength of the solar wind's magnetic field was weak, as was the north–south component,  while favouring a positive (northward) direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at Background. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to continue generally Low, but with a chance of Moderate class flares. No significant regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc during the period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds are expected to start at background levels around 350-400 km/s.  Through Day 1 (15 May) a fast wind enhancement is expected  to arrive from the large coronal hole now in the western hemisphere, with solar winds reaching elevated levels. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist Days 2 and 3, with a gradual decline beginning from Day 4 (18 May).

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet initially. With the onset of enhanced solar winds expected later Day 1 (15 May), geomagnetic activity is forecast to increase to Unsettled to Active, with Minor storm intervals Likely and a slight chance of Moderate storms. These conditions will persist into Day 2 (16 May) before returning to mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels during Days 3 and 4 (17 and 18 May).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.