Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Fast solar winds are expected though 04 Oct, before gradually easing day 06 Oct. These fast winds are expected to bring the potential for visible aurora as far south as the northern half of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, from late Saturday (UTC) and through Sunday. Background aurora levels are expected on Monday.
Southern Hemisphere
Fast solar winds are expected though 04 Oct, before gradually easing day 06 Oct. These fast winds are expected to bring the potential for visible aurora as far north as the New Zealand's South Island, and similar geomagnetic latitudes, from late Saturday (UTC) and through Sunday. Background aurora levels are expected on Monday.
Issued at: 14:33 (GMT) on Sat 3 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storms likely, mainly day 2 (04 Oct)
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Very Low with only very small Background-class flares observed. There are currently four sunspot regions on the disc, all of which are small and magnetically simple.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs) were observed in available imagery
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A very weak arrival of the CME from 28 Oct was observed. Background solar wind speeds, near 270km/s, showed a clear jump at 03/0127 UTC to just over 300km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field also rose slightly at this time to from Weak, to be Weak to Moderate. The north-south component remained unremarkable. Geomagnetic activity remained Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisting at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Very Low activity is expected, with a chance of rising to Low with isolated Common class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth directed CMEs. The next enhancement is expected to be from the onset of fast winds from a coronal hole, connecting either later day 1 (03 Oct) or more likely on day 2 (04 Oct). Solar winds are likely to become Elevated to Strong, at 550-600km/s, before gradually easing day 4 (06 Oct). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled at first, with any ongoing CME influence bringing a slight chance of Active intervals. Onset of the fast winds will then bring a spell of Unsettled to Active, with G1 Minor Storm intervals and a slight chance of G2 Moderate Storms. Any activity easing day 3 (05 Oct), to become mainly Quiet to Unsettled day 4 (06 Oct).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisting at Background.
Issued at: 12:05 (GMT) on Sat 3 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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