Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate solar activity. Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Day 1 and 2 (13 and 14 July).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is Low, with only occasional, low-level Common-class flares observed. There are four sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. One on the southwest limb, which is the most active region on the disc but is becoming difficult to analyse, as it transitions around the limb. Another sunspot group resides in the southwest, which is the largest region, but appears stable and simple. A new, moderately sized spot rotated into view on the southeast limb. This spot appears to be magnetically simple. A previous sunspot region re-emerged in the northwestern disc as a small and simple group. 

Despite occasional near-limb activity, no new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a waning high speed stream accompanied by glancing CME. Winds speeds were initially Elevated before falling to Slightly Elevated after 12/1800 UTC, lowering further tp 430km/s by the end of the period. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Moderate initially, lowering to Weak from 12/1530 UTC. The north-south component varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) with an Active (Kp4) interval 12/1200-1500UTC. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Mostly Low or Very Low, but with a Chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares (Moderate activity).

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Up to four Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) may arrive at Earth during the period, two either late Day 1 or Day 2 (13-14 July), with the other two possibly giving glancing effects from Day 3 (15 July).

Solar wind speeds are Slightly Elevated, due to waning coronal hole fast winds and post glancing 09 July CME impact. Solar wind speeds are likely to erratically decline close to Background for the remainder of the period. The exceptions to this are the possible arrivals of CMEs when speeds may become briefly Elevated.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled through much of the period. Active intervals, with a Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic storms are possible each day, though with an overall reducing likelihood, due to possible CME arrivals.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at Background levels.