Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Due to coronal hole fast winds and a chance of a glancing coronal mass ejection, some enhancement of the auroral oval is possible on the evening of 09 May UTC. This may allow visible aurora across parts of Scotland and at similar latitudes on 09 and early 10 May UTC, provided skies are clear. Later 10 May onwards, auroral activity is expected to return to background levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Due to coronal hole fast winds and a chance of a glancing coronal mass ejection, some enhancement of the auroral oval is possible on 09 May UTC. This may allow visible aurora across parts of New Zealand's south island, Tasmania and similar latitudes, provided skies are clear. Later 10 May onwards, auroral activity is expected to return to background levels.
Issued at: 01:03 (GMT) on Sat 9 May 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Reducing Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has returned to Low, with only common class flares observed. There are currently six sunspot regions on the visible disc. Two are noteworthy, a bipolar region located in the northwest, continues to show areal growth, with some mixed magnetic structure. The new region in the northeast is likely the leader of a larger returning active region which has been the source of a number of large coronal mass ejections in previous days. Remaining regions are smaller, stable and simple.
No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were indicative of coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were initially Slightly Elevated, followed by a gradual rise from around 08/0600UTC, briefly reaching Strong, then relaxed back to Elevated to end the period. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Strong, before easing back to Weak by 08/1500 UTC. The north-south component was Moderate at first, but often positive (northward) before becoming Weak and variable after 08/1500UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy proton flux was at Background, with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to remain largely Low initially, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A faint coronal mass ejection from 06 May will largely miss Earth with a chance of a glancing blow 09 or 10 May. The current fast wind enhancement peaked at Strong. Barring any any glancing coronal mass ejection, solar wind speeds are now expected to slowly decline back to Slightly Elevated by day 2 (10 May), then to background by day 4 (12 May).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3) through the period, though the is a reducing Chance of Active to G1/Minor storm (Kp 4-5) intervals, due to any possible coronal mass ejection glancing blow on days 1 and 2 (09/10 May).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels, with no solar radiation storms expected.
Issued at: 00:13 (GMT) on Sat 9 May 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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