Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Late on 01 Oct into early 02 Oct (UTC), a Coronal Mass Ejection may glance Earth, bringing a chance of visible aurora to Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes. A coronal hole fast wind may then bring further visible aurora to Scotland from late 03 Oct into 04 Oct (UTC).
Southern Hemisphere
Late on 01 Oct into early 02 Oct (UTC), a Coronal Mass Ejection may glance Earth, bringing a chance of visible aurora to the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes. A coronal hole fast wind may then bring further visible aurora to the south of New Zealand from late 03 Oct into 04 Oct (UTC).
Issued at: 11:57 (GMT) on Thu 1 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor geomagnetic storms Days 1-3 (01-03 Oct), likely on Day 4 (04 Oct).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Very Low during the last 24 hours, with little flare activity. There are two sunspot regions on the visible disc, both small and simple regions in the western hemisphere.
No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available imagery in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed background conditions. Wind speeds were Slow-Ambient. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 >10MeV proton flux was at normal background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is likely to be Low or Very Low, with a chance of further Common-class flares and a slight chance of Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A coronal mass ejection from 28 Sep is likely to give Earth a glancing blow either late Day 1 (01 Oct) or more likely early Day 2 (02 Oct). A further coronal mass ejection from 30 Sep is likely to miss Earth with a small chance of minor shock influences on Day 3 (03 Oct).
The next coronal hole fast wind onset is due Day 3 or Day 4 (03-04 Oct), with speeds likely reaching Elevated, with a chance of reaching Strong.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled at first. This becoming Unsettled to Active with a chance of G1/Minor storm and a slight chance of G2/Moderate storm intervals late on Day 1 (01 Oct) or early Day 2 (02 Oct), should we see glancing influence from the 28 Sep coronal mass ejection. Activity likely declining later Day 2 into early Day 3 (02-03 Oct), before potentially increasing again late Day 3 or Day 4 (03-04 Oct) due to connection of fast winds, perhaps combined with minor shock effects from 30 Sep coronal mass ejection.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Issued at: 12:16 (GMT) on Thu 1 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: