Space Weather

Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

The auroral oval is expected to be slightly enhanced on the 11 July into 12 July, due the arrival of a coronal hole fast wind. Any auroras are likely to be limited to northern Scotland and similar latitude regions, and short summer nights at this time of year will significantly limit visibility.

Southern Hemisphere

The auroral oval is expected to be slightly enhanced on 11 July into 12 July, due to the arrival of a coronal hole fast wind. Any auroras are likely to be limited to the south of New Zealand and Tasmania.

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Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of M-flares throughout. Chance of G1/Minor (Kp5) Storm intervals Days 1 and 2 (11-12 Jul) and again on Day 4 (14 Jul).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity was Low, with occasional Common-class flares. The largest was an upper level Common-class flare observed at 10/1936 UTC, from a bright region located just beyond the southeast limb.

There are currently five numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar disc, with two new unnumbered regions. The largest and most active is the region located in the northeast. It contains a large trailing spot with a complex structure, preceded by smaller intermediate and lead spots. A moderate size bipolar region is located in the northwest, continuing to show some waxing/waning of its constituent spot portions. A new region is currently emerging on the southeast limb. Another region has rapidly developed in the northwest, which shows some complexity. More recently, another new sunspot region has emerged ahead of the large complex region in the northeast, but this appears to be small and simple at present. The remaining sunspot regions are small, simple and are either stable or in slow decay. 

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24 hours.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow environment initially, before connecting with a large coronal hole fast wind. Wind speeds were slow at 330km/s initially, but increased to Slightly Elevated levels following the arrival of the coronal hole fast wind, currently near 470km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was initially weak, but increased to Moderate levels, with the onset of the coronal hole fast wind. The north-south component was also weak and mostly positive (northward) initially, becoming mostly negative (southward) and moderate, with the arrival of the fast wind. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to continue generally Low but with an increasing chance of isolated M-class flares, primarily from AR4136, but also from the emerging sunspot region near the southeast limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs expected.

The solar wind is currently slightly elevated due to the arrival of a HSS associated with CH63/+. Solar winds are likely to reach between 450 and 550km/s over the coming days, with slight chance of reaching 600km/s, although with some uncertainty.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active, with a Slight Chance of G1/Minor Storm Days 1 and 2 (11-12 Jul). This may then be followed by Quiet to Unsettled conditions (Kp 1-3) on Day 3 (13 Jul), before a renewed chance of Active to G1/Minor Storm intervals by the end of the period.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation storms are not expected, although the risk increases slightly by Day 4 (14 Jul).

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Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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