Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Ongoing CME influence could bring some increased aurora visibility on Saturday (UTC), mainly across high geomagnetic latitudes, but perhaps as far south as northern Scotland for a time. A further CME arrival is expected on Sunday, bringing another enhancement to the aurora, and again leading to some increased visibility across higher latitudes. Visible aurora potentially extends into northern parts of the UK, mainly Scotland. However visibility is likely to be limited by the full moon.
Southern Hemisphere
Ongoing Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) influence could bring some increased aurora visibility on Saturday (UTC), mainly across high geomagnetic latitudes, but perhaps as far north as southern parts of New Zealand. A further arrival is expected on Sunday, bringing another enhancement to the aurora, and again leading to some increased visibility across higher latitudes. However, a mixture of the current full moon and short hours of darkness, may limit any potential viewings.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Coronal Mass Ejection influence through days 1-2 (03-04 Jan) with G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storms expected.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with only Common-class flares observed, the strongest from a small and relatively indistinct region in the southeast. The largest of the eight regions on the visible disc is in the southwest, however this is simplifying into a mature open group. The region in the northwest remains the most complex with a very small mixed polarity spot but is showing a declining trend. The most developmental is currently a region just to the southeast of the large region, with the ongoing growth of its leader and intermediate spots.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) left the Sun during this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a weak enhancement, however the source of this remains uncertain at this stage. It is either a weaker but also earlier impact from the anticipated CME, or some other influence, perhaps from a stronger portion of the recent coronal hole. Solar wind speeds were initially Slightly Elevated, at just below 500km/s, before rising erratically from 02/0800 UTC to near 600km/s, briefly increasing to 600-650 km/s around 02/1530 UTC, then easing back to be elevated at 550-600km/s after 02/1830UTC. Interplanetary Magnetic Field persisted Weak to Moderate but with a jump at 02/1520 UTC. The north-south component remained Weak to Moderate and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4) with one G1 Minor Storm (Kp5) interval at 02/1500-1800 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a chance of Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are two CMEs expected to arrive at Earth. The first from the Moderate flare on 31 Dec was forecast for either late 02 Jan or early day 1 (03 Jan) but may be the source of the current enhancement. The second from a Common class flare on 01 Jan is forecast to arrive around the middle of day 2 (04 Jan). While these are likely to keep solar winds Elevated at times during day 1-2, with there being no other enhancements forecast, the current Elevated to Strong solar winds are likely to gradually ease towards background by the end of the period. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Active to G1 Minor storm on day 1-2 (03-04 Jan) with a chance of G2 Moderate storm intervals on day 1 and becoming likely on day 2. Activity easing to Quiet to Active day 3-4 (05-06 Jan).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to continue at Background with no solar radiation storms expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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