Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Recent CME influence will see enhancement to the aurora into Friday night, with displays potentially visible in the northern half of the UK, although there is low confidence in the evolution of activity through the night. There is a chance of further enhancement Sunday night with displays limited to northern Scotland where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Recent CME influence will see some enhancement to the aurora into the 4th April UTC, although there is low confidence in the evolution of activity through the next few hours. There is a small chance of further enhancement into the 6th April UTC.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Further G1/Minor-G2/Moderate Geomagnetic Storms expected Day 1 (04 Apr), but activity expected to generally ease. Likelihood of Moderate Solar flares continues throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity is currently Moderate, with the peak flare a M1.3 observed from sunspot region AR4409 at 03/0756UTC.
There are currently seven sunspot regions visible on the Earth-facing disc at present, with the small AR4411 numbered in the east of the disk. Most of the current regions on the disc remain magnetically simple with limited growth. AR4409 in the northern centre disk is the chief focus of recent flare activity, and has showed continued evolution of its intermediate spots, with an increasingly complex and convoluted magnetic structure.
No significant Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed continued fast wind influence initially, with the arrival of a CME from approximately 03/1500 UTC.
Solar wind speeds started the period Strong, slowly declining through the first half of the period. CME arrival saw wind speeds increase to Very Strong, before steadily declining by the end of the period. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, Weak initially, increased to a Moderate peak with CME arrival, before steadily declining back to Weak levels by the end of the period. The important north-south component, Bz, varying Weakly initially, saw some moderate negative values with CME arrival, but remained at Weak levels by the end of the period, generally negative (southwards).
Geomagnetic activity initially Unsettled to G1/Minor Geomagnetic storm level (Kp3-5), increased to G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Geomagnetic Storm levels (Kp 5-6) following CME arrival, as recorded by British Geological Survey (BGS).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels were above Background but below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar Activity is likely to remain generally Moderate, with further Moderate solar flares likely and a slight chance of Strong solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The ongoing arrival of a forecast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) likely associated with an eruption on 01 April leaves one CME currently in the forecast, with a chance of a glancing blow later on Day 2 (05 Apr) or possibly early on Day 3 (06 Apr).
Earth is currently under CME and declining fast solar wind influence. With the initial CME impact now likely having passed, solar winds are expected to generally decline into the period at a reasonably steady rate. Speeds expected to fall towards background levels by Day 4 (07 Apr), although the possible glancing arrival of the second CME late Day 2 (05 Apr) into early Day 3 (06 Apr) lowers confidence.
Further G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Geomagnetic Storm intervals expected during Day 1 (04 Apr), with a Slight Chance of a G3/Strong storm intervals to start given continued CME influence. Activity is then expected to decline into the period to generally Quiet to Active levels, although there remains a chance of G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Geomagnetic Storm intervals should the second CME glancing blow occur later Day 2 into early Day 3 (05-06 Apr).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation remains above background levels but on a slowly declining trend. The chance of an S1 solar radiation storm is maintained during Day 1 (04 Apr), with the risk slowly declining into the period.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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