Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, with a single Moderate class flare, peaking at 27/0243 UTC. Eight sunspot regions are currently visible on the solar disc. Analysis of the large spot in the far west is becoming increasingly difficult as it rotates around the limb. Many of the spots within the central portion of the disk have shown little change and are all largely simple. The large spot in the northeast remains difficult to assess, though currently appears to be a large unipolar region but may yet have a trailing portion to rotate onto the visible disk.

No recent Earth-directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated a waning coronal hole influence followed by a weak coronal mass ejection arrival after 27/1530 UTC. Wind speeds erratically fell from Slightly Elevated to Slow Ambient before rising back to Slightly Elevated after 27/1530 UTC. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak but rose a little after 27/1530 UTC. The north-south component varied weakly throughout. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at background levels with no Solar Radiation storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly Low, with a reducing chance of isolated Moderate class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak coronal mass ejection from 26 July, may have an Earth-directed component late 29 July.

Earth is currently under the influence of the 24 Jul coronal mass ejection, though the response has been limited thus far. Solar winds are Slightly Elevated but are expected to decline back to Slow-Ambient through day 1 (28 Jul). The large southern polar coronal hole is likely too far south to give a connection to Earth, though there is a chance of a possible weak enhancement. There is therefore a small chance of speeds increasing back to Slightly Elevated during days 2 and 3 (29 and 30 Jul), should this occur.

Geomagnetic activity is forecast to remain predominantly Quiet, with occasional Unsettled intervals. Activity may increase to occasional Active intervals and a Slight Chance of G1/Minor Storms later on day 2 and into day 3 (29 & 30 July) due to either glancing coronal mass ejection or high speed stream influences.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to remain at background levels.