Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Due to the onset of coronal hole fast winds expected through the 7th May, some enhancement of the auroral oval is possible during the UTC evening of 7 May. This may allow visible aurora across parts of Scotland and at similar latitudes, provided skies are clear. From 8 May onwards, auroral activity is expected to return to background levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Due to the onset of coronal hole fast winds expected through the 7th May, some enhancement of the auroral oval is possible. This may allow visible aurora across parts of New Zealand's south island, Tasmania and similar latitudes, provided skies are clear. From 8 May onwards, auroral activity is expected to return to background levels.
Issued at: 12:57 (GMT) on Thu 7 May 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms, Days 1 & 2 (07/08 May) due to coronal hole fast winds.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity is currently Low, with common class flares observed, the largest of which was a long duration flare at 07/0215UTC from a region around the northeast limb. There are currently six sunspots on the earth facing disc. Two moderately sized spots, one in the southwest and one in the southeast, with some minor magnetic complexity. A developing region resides in the north west, though this appears simple at present. The other regions are smaller and simple.
Two filament eruptions were of note during 06 May, though only one faint coronal mass ejection can be seen leaving the south of the Sun late on 06 May. This has been assessed as missing south of Earth, arriving at 1AU around 09 or 10 May, though confidence is low due to lack of corroborating imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters were largely background. Solar wind speeds, were at background levels. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component was predominately positive for much of the period, and also Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The high energy proton flux was at Background, with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A faint coronal mass ejection has been observed leaving the south of the disk late 06 May, but has been assessed as a miss. The next fast wind enhancement is expected Day 1 (07 May), with speeds reaching Elevated to possibly Strong. Solar wind speeds are then expected to decline from Day 3 (09 May), possibly reaching background levels by Day 4 (10 May).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) until the onset of fast wind enhancement expected on Day 1 (07 May), bringing a chance of Active to G1/Minor storm (Kp4-5) intervals. From Day 3 (09 May) activity is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) levels.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected through the period.
Issued at: 12:12 (GMT) on Thu 7 May 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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