Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to return to background until later on 21 Dec or perhaps into 22 Dec, when the next fast stream of solar wind may arrive. This brings an increased chance of G1/Minor Storm periods, with a chance of aurora sightings extending to the far north of Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to return to background until later on 21 Dec or perhaps into 22 Dec, when the next fast stream of solar wind may arrive. This brings an increased chance of G1/Minor Storm periods, with a chance of aurora sightings extending to the far south of New Zealand.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Increased Chance G1 days 2-4 (21-23 Dec).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity reached the Moderate-class level following an isolated Moderate flare at 19/1558UTC from an active region now beyond the southwest limb. There are currently up to four active regions on the visible disc all of which are small and magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind measurements showed a waning connection to coronal hole fast winds. Solar winds declined from Strong to Slightly Elevated levels The interplanetary magnetic field has been Weak, with the north-south component weakly variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be generally Low, with a Slight Chance of isolated Moderate class activity.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections in the forecast. The waning influence of coronal hole fast winds continues with solar wind speeds now at Slightly Elevated levels. Speeds should decrease further through days 1-2 (20-21 Dec) perhaps reaching slow-ambient by day 2 (21Dec). A connection to another coronal hole fast wind is then possible later on day 3 (21 Dec), although this is perhaps more likely to arrive into day 3 (22 Dec).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet (Kp 1-2) at first, before an increasing chance of Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) intervals follows later day 2 (21 Dec) with a slight chance of G1/Minor storm conditions. An increased chance of reaching G1/Minor storm levels is considered likely into day 3 (22 Dec).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is expected to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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