Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate-class flares. Chance of G1/Minor storms, slight chance of G2/Moderate storms, early 27 Jul with any CME arrival. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate with one Moderate-class flare peaking at 26/1528 UTC. There are now eight sunspot regions on the visible disc. A region in the southwest just about remains the largest region, however analysis is becoming more difficult as it starts to approach the western limb. A region near south centre disc has started to fade, with magnetic complexity reducing, however it does have a slightly unusual magnetic configuration. It has also been responsible for the largest flare of the last 24 hours. Another region near south centre disc has been continuing to grow slowly, but so far has a fairly straightforward magnetic configuration. The spots in the northeast now appear to be three separate regions, with an additional region developing in recent hours. The remaining regions appear simple and stable for the time being.

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) may have been associated with the Moderate-class flare, however a lack of coronagraph imagery is making analysis difficult, so this is still pending.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated the recent coronal hole fast winds were erratically easing. Wind speeds were between 470-550 km/s, but are now near 430 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at background levels with no Solar Radiation storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun on 24 July could arrive at Earth early on Day 1 (27 Jul), however confidence in this only moderate. Another CME possibly emerged on 26 July, but analysis is still pending. An Earth directed component to any CME seems likely given the location of the eruption. The recent coronal hole fast winds continue to wane, but should the CME hit then wind speeds are likely to become elevated once again, with slow wind conditions then returning through Days 2-3 (28-29 Jul). 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled at first, perhaps increasing to Active to G1/Minor Storm with a slight chance of G2/Moderate storms should the CME arrive early on Day 1. Any activity should then gradually ease to become Quiet to Unsettled once again into Day 2.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to remain at background levels.