Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms days 1 and 2.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with peak flare recorded at 13/1944 UTC, from a filament eruption in south centre disk. There are four sunspot regions on the visible disc, all of which reside in the western hemisphere. The most complex region on the disk resides in the northwest, with a bipolar magnetic configuration and numerous small intermediate spots. All other regions are small or moderately sized but magnetically simple and stable.

A faint but fast coronal mass ejection was observed late on 13 Sep, likely associated with the aforementioned filament eruption, though initial analysis has been hampered by lack of triangulating imagery, and it appears to have been deflected west. Further analysis will be carried out when imagery becomes available. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated a possible weak coronal hole fast wind between 13/1250-2040 UTC. Wind speeds were mostly Slow-Ambient, but became Slightly Elevated between 13/1250-2040 UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field, Bt, was Weak. The north-south component, Bz, was Weak and mostly negative initially before becoming variable after 13/0530 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at background levels, with no solar radiation storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to remain Low or Very Low with only a slight chance of reaching Moderate levels should any isolated Moderate-class flares occur.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak coronal mass ejection from 09 Sep may have minor impacts at Earth day 1 (14 Sep). Solar winds have been Slightly Elevated to Background over the past 24 hours. There are two coronal holes that feature in the forecast, the first is from the southern hemisphere, followed by a one in the northern hemisphere. The southern coronal hole may have further weak influences through day 1 (14 Sep). The coronal hole from the north is expected to have a more considerable  enhancement with wind speeds perhaps reaching Strong on days 2 and 3 (15-16 Sep), before gradually easing back to Slightly Elevated levels by day 4 (17 Sep).

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3) initially. There is then a chance of Active to G1/Minor storms (Kp4-5) at times later on day 1 and on day 2 (14-15 Sep) due to combined coronal mass ejection and coronal hole fast wind effects. From day 3 onward (16-17) mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions should return as fast winds gradually wane.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is at background with no Solar Radiation storms expected.