Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate solar activity expected. G1/Minor geomagnetic storms likely, chance G2/Moderate storms Days 1-2 (04-05 Jul), activity declining later in the period. Chance of S1/Minor radiation storms.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been High with 5 Moderate-class flares observed in the last 24 hours, the largest at 03/1811UTC, from the region in the northwest. This is just about the largest spot on the disk, and has been showing development of penumbra within the intermediate portion. There is still thought to be magnetic complexity within this region, although as it approaches the limb this is becoming more difficult to assess. A region in the southwest is just slightly smaller than the first mentioned but has been showing decay within its trailing portion. It does appear to have developed magnetic complexity to the south of the main leader, however. Another region in the southwest appears to have simplified as it approaches the limb, but again its proximity to the limb makes full assessment difficult. The new region in the east is small and simple.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) associated with the two recent flares from the regions in the west are still undergoing analysis. The bulk of any CME is expected to pass ahead of Earth's orbit, however.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a CME arrival at 03/1119 UTC, likely followed by a further CME around 03/1900 UTC. Wind speeds were slow, around 380 km/s, increasing after the CME arrivals to become elevated between 530-600 km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak at first, increasing to moderate and then strong. The north-south component varied weakly at first, but became strongly variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 0-4).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels, but with a recent slight increase, although levels remain well below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate activity is expected, with occasional Moderate-class flares and a slight chance of an isolated Strong flare. This risk declining slightly during the period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: CME influence continues to affect Earth, with elevated solar wind speeds, this likely to decline Day 1 into Day 2 (04-05 Jul). Further CMEs emitted 01-02 Jul may give additional CME arrivals on Days 2-3 (05-06 Jul), with perhaps the main CME of interest most likely to sweep up any other CMEs and arrive at Earth around 05/1600 UTC, but with some uncertainty in arrival time. Two further flares appear to have produced CMEs but these are awaiting imagery for analysis. The bulk of any CME(s) is expected to pass ahead of Earth's orbit, however. A coronal hole in the south of the disc may give a slight additional enhancement to the solar wind environment alongside the expected CME(s).

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to G1/Minor storm with a chance of G2/Moderate storms to start Day 1. Activity is likely to decrease into Day 2 to become Quiet to Unsettled, before any further CME influence later Day 2 into Day 3 brings the possibility of Unsettled to G1/Minor storm with a chance of G2/Moderate storms once again. Activity is then likely to be mostly Quiet for Day 4 (07 Jul), in the absence of any further CME activity.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently slightly enhanced, but well below the S1/Minor radiation storm level. There is a chance of reaching above the S1 level during this period.