Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

The geomagnetic forecast remains low confidence. Solar winds have significantly declined but, with up to three coronal mass ejections potentially arriving at Earth very shortly, geomagnetic activity could become enhanced, bringing a likelihood of aurora across northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes, with a chance of visibility extending more widely across northern parts of the UK during peak activity tonight (Tuesday into Wednesday - UTC time).

Southern Hemisphere

The geomagnetic forecast remains low confidence. Solar winds have significantly declined but, with up to three Coronal Mass Ejections potentially arriving at Earth very shortly, geomagnetic activity could become enhanced, bringing a likelihood of aurora across the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes, with a chance of visibility extending more widely across the South Island of New Zealand and similar latitudes during peak activity tonight (Tuesday into Wednesday - UTC time).

Issued at: 22:34 (GMT) on Tue 8 Sep 2026

Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1/Minor storm likely, chance of G2/Moderate Storm Day 1 (09 Sep).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity has been Low, with two minor Common-class flares in the last 24 hours. There are currently seven sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. Most are relatively simple, unipolar groups. There is only bipolar region near the north centre disc.  However, it remains magnetically simple, with no significant increase in complexity evident at this stage.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been seen in available imagery in the last 24 hours.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds reflected the continued, but waning influence of a coronal hole fast wind. Wind speeds were mainly elevated initially, briefly peaking above 600 km/s around 08/0600 UTC, before gradually declining to reach slightly elevated levels shortly after 08/1400 UTC. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, and so was the important north-south component. While two G1/Minor Storm intervals were observed early in the period, geomagnetic activity was mostly Unsettled and Active.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation was at normal background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar Activity is likely to be Low or Very Low, but with a slight chance of Moderate-class flares, this increasing a little when a potential far side region rotates onto the disc.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The geomagnetic forecast has lower than average confidence. Earth is currently under the waning influence of the fast wind from CH91/+, with wind speeds of 430 km/s. However, with up to three CMEs potentially arriving at Earth early on Day 1 (09 Sep), solar wind conditions are expected to become elevated. There remains the possibility that these ejecta could interact en route and ultimately arrive as a single event. In addition, a high-speed stream from CH92/+ may arrive late on Day 3 and last into Day 4 (11-12 Sep), potentially driving solar wind speeds back above 500 km/s.

As a result, geomagnetic activity should increase from Unsettled to Active with occasional G1 (Minor) storm intervals and a chance of G2 (Moderate) storms on Day 1 (09 Sep). Activity is likely to be declining by Day 2-3 (10-11 Sep), but with a potential increase, with another chance of G1/Minor Storms later on Day 3 and into Day 4 (11-12 Sep).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is now at background, with a very slight chance of further enhancements above the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold.

Issued at: 00:08 (GMT) on Wed 9 Sep 2026

Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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