Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1/Minor Expected, Chance of G2/Moderate Geomangnetic Storms Day 2. G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Likely Days 3 and 4. Daily Chance of R1/Minor Radio Blackouts. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is now at Low levels, with only Common-class flares observed in the past 24 hours. Peaking at 07/1317 UTC from near centre disc. 

There are currently three sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest and most complex is in the northwest. This area continues to exhibit areal growth and elongation, with significant magnetic complexity. A smaller and less complex region lies just to the northwest. The remaining region, in the southeast, is a small, mature and simple spot.

A coronal mass ejection associated with the peak flare was observed in imagery, which looks to give a glancing blow on Day 3 or 4 (10-11 Oct). No other earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have exhibited background conditions. The solar wind speed was Slow-Ambient. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component was generally southward (negative) but Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 10MeV proton flux has been predominantly at Background values.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: This is expected to be Low to Moderate, with a chance of Moderate-class activity from the complex sunspot in the northwest.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Two coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast.  A likely direct hit from the 06 Oct coronal mass ejection is due early Day 2 (09 Oct), followed by a glancing blow of 07 Oct coronal mass ejection later Day 3 (10 Oct) or early on Day 4 (11 Oct).

Slow winds should continue through Day 1 (08 Oct). The next significant coronal hole fast wind, is likely to arrive beyond the current forecast period.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet Day 1 (08 Oct), with a Slight Chance of G1-G3/Minor-Strong (Kp5-7) storms late Day 1 (08 Oct) if the 06 Oct coronal mass ejection arrives early. G1/Minor (Kp5) storms are Expected, with a Chance of G2/Moderate (Kp6) and a Slight Chance of G3/Strong storm (Kp7) intervals on Day 2 (09 Oct), before easing back to Quiet to Active (Kp2-4) into early Day 3 (10 Oct). Later on Day 3 or early Day 4 (10-11 Oct), the glancing blow of 07 Oct coronal mass ejection will bring Likely G1/Minor storms (Kp5) and a Slight Chance of G2/Moderate storms (Kp6). Later Day 4 (11 Oct), geomagnetic activity should ease to Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a daily Slight Chance of S1 Minor Solar Radiation Storms, with this gradually increasing due to the westward progression of the complex sunspot region.