Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Fast solar winds are expected to continue through 05-06 Oct, likely starting to gradually ease late on the 06 Oct. These fast winds are expected to bring the potential for visible aurora as far south as the northern half of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes on Sunday. Aurora levels are then expected to largely return to background for Monday UTC night.
Southern Hemisphere
Fast solar winds are expected to continue through 05-06 Oct, likely starting to gradually ease late on the 06 Oct. These fast winds may bring the potential for visible aurora as far north as the New Zealand's South Island, and similar geomagnetic latitudes. Aurora levels are then expected to largely return to background for Monday UTC night.
Issued at: 15:45 (GMT) on Sun 4 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storms likely, mainly day 1 (04 Oct) due to coronal hole fast winds.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Very Low with only very small Background-class flares observed. There are currently four sunspot regions on the disc, all of which are small and magnetically simple.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs) were observed in available imagery
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar parameters showed the onset of fast winds from a positive coronal hole in the west of the disc. Solar wind speeds were initially at background levels, then from around 04/0000 UTC, speeds showed a sustained increased to current elevated levels of around 530km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field rose from weak levels to become moderate to strong from 04/0000UTC. The north-south component was weakly positive, until around 04/0000UTC, at which point it became moderately positive, but then favoured a negative orientation from 04/0515UTC, with a peak at strong negative levels. Geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3), with one Active (Kp4) interval at 04/0600-0900UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisting at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Very Low activity is expected, with a chance of rising to Low with isolated Common class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth directed CMEs.
Earth is now under the influence of fast winds from a large coronal hole in the west of the solar disc. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase to strong levels by the end of Day 1 (04 Oct) and remain elevated through Day 2 (05 Oct). A gradual decline is then expected from Day 3 (06 Oct), with speeds potentially returning to background levels by the end of Day 4 (07 Oct).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4), with isolated G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) intervals and a slight chance of isolated G2/Moderate (Kp6) Storm intervals.. These conditions may persist initially into Day 2 (05 Oct), before easing from later Day 2 and into Day 3 (06 Oct) back to mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels, which are expected to continue into Day 4 (07 Oct).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No Solar Radiation Storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisting at Background.
Issued at: 12:26 (GMT) on Sun 4 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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