Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is likely to be near background levels through 12 March. The onset of fast winds during 13 and 14 March is likely to bring slight enhancements, with aurora likely to be visible from Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is likely to be near background levels through 12 March. The onset of fast winds during 13 and 14 March is likely to bring slight enhancements, with aurora likely to be visible from the south of New Zealand, Tasmania and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. G1/Minor Storms likely days 2 & 3, chance G2/Moderate Storms. Active fluence expected days 1 & 2.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, with an isolated Moderate-class flare observed at 11/1304 UTC from a small region in the northwest. There are ten regions on the Earth-facing disc. The main region of interest resides in the northeast, and has seen continued development in areal extent and remains magnetically complex. The aforementioned small region in the northeast continues to weaken, however it was responsible for most of the flare activity in the past 24 hours. Most other spots have shown little change and are generally stable at present.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a declining connection to a coronal hole. Wind speeds were initially strong, declining to slow-ambient levels by the end of the period. Interplanetary Magnetic Field started weak and gradually rose to moderate. The north-south component was weakly variable initially, with one sustained moderately negative period 11/2130-2400UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is most likely, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no CMEs likely to impact Earth, however a weak glance cannot be completely ruled out on Day 1 (11 Mar). Ongoing fast winds are expected to continue to ease through Days 1-2 (11-12 Mar), likely reaching background levels. The next fast wind enhancement is most likely to occur during Day 3 (13 Mar), with elevated to strong wind speeds expected.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled through Days 1 and 2, with a decreasing chance of isolated Active intervals. On Days 3 and 4 a spell of Active to G1/Minor Storms are likely, with the potential for isolated G2/Moderate storm intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is most likely to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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