Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Kp5 Geomagnetic activity in the coming days. Chance of R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with only occasional low-level Common-class flaring observed. There are seven sunspot regions on the visible disc. Most complex is a moderately-sized region in the far northwest. As it approaches the western horizon it is becoming harder to confidently analyse, however, some slight decay in overall size and reduction in complexity is evident. A moderately large region in the southeast continues to evolve slowly with few if any intermediate spots currently evident between the lead and trailing regions. The remaining sunspot groups are small and simple.

A moderate speed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that left the Sun around 12/0500 UTC from a large filament (arc of the Sun's material) eruption in the southeast disc has been analysed and modelled. Forecast output indicates that although the bulk of the ejecta will pass behind Earth orbit, some flanking influence is likely on 14 Oct.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated waning CME and fast wind influence. Solar wind speeds were Elevated initially before easing steadily back to Slightly Elevated levels. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak throughout with the north-south component, Bz, also Weak, though generally northward directed (positive). Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation has been at mostly background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Mainly Low, with a chance of Moderate activity should any isolated Moderate-class flares occur, most likely from moderately sized regions in the far northwest and southeast disc.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A moderately-fast CME that left the Sun on 10 Oct, associated with a Moderate flare from a region currently in the far northeast disc is likely to give Earth a glancing impact on Day 1 (12 Oct). A moderate-speed CME that left the Sun early on 12 Oct is likely to give Earth a flanking blow on Day 3 (14 Oct).

Solar wind speeds are currently at Slightly Elevated levels and easing following declining CME and likely coronal hole (combined) influences of recent days. Solar wind speeds should continue to decline until the likely arrival of the 10 Oct CME and/or onset of the fast winds of the next coronal hole feature. The latter is expected to arrive later Day 1 (12 Oct), or Day 2 (13 Oct). Speeds from this coronal hole are expected to reach Elevated to Strong levels, although due to its (negative) polarity, it is not favoured for significant geomagnetic enhancement at this time of year.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled initially, however, likely increasing on Day 1 (12 Oct), due to CME and/or coronal hole influence. Following the onset of either, or both combined, Active/Kp4 to G1/Kp5 conditions are likely to occur, with a Chance of G2/Moderate intervals (Kp6) and a Slight Chance of isolated G3/Strong (Kp7) storm intervals. Through Days 2 to 4 (13-15 Oct), there is a reducing Chance of G1/Kp5 and Slight Chance of G2/Kp6 geomagnetic conditions but a further potential CME arrival on Day 3 (14 Oct) could temporarily boost activity levels again.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight chance of S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storms throughout the period.