Space Weather Forecast Headline: Reducing Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms on Day 1 (08 May) due to coronal hole fast winds. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar Activity reached Moderate levels following an isolated Moderate flare at 07/1514 UTC from a region around the northeast limb. 

There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc. A bipolar region located in the northwest has shown increased lead/intermediate spot growth/development, with some mixed magnetic structure. Remaining regions are comprised mostly of a single, stable lead spot with any small trailing spots tending to fade.

No Earth directed CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were observed in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds, as observed by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 were initially at background levels, 330-350 km/s, before showing a limited, rather erratic rise after 07/1530 UTC, becoming Slightly Elevated at 380-440km/s. A stronger, gradual rise was observed from around 08/0600UTC, with speeds currently varying in the range 500-600km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, was weak at first but increased to Moderate, occasionally reaching Strong, from 07/1520 UTC. The north-south component was weak at first, becoming occasionally Moderate but often positive (northward). Phi angle was variable first, then becoming generally negative (towards the sun) from around 07/0600 UTC. It then turned generally positive (away from the sun) from around 07/1345 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet (Kp 0-2) but became Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) between 07/1500-2100UTC. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at Background. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to remain largely Low initially, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. There may be an increasing Chance of Moderate-class flares, with a Slight Chance of Strong-class flares, as an active returning region reaches the visible disc from Day 2 (09 May).  

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed leaving the south of the disc late 06 May. Analysis of this suggests this feature will largely miss Earth, although it may pass close below Earth orbit on 09 or 10 May, and a weak glancing blow cannot be ruled out. 

Earth is connected with the fast wind enhancement from a coronal hole, with Elevated solar wind speeds expected through Day 1 (08 May) reaching 500-600 km/s. Solar wind speeds are then expected to gradually decline from Day 2 (09 May), possibly reaching background levels by Day 3 or 4 (10 or 11 May). 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4), with a slight initial chance of G1/Minor storm (Kp5) intervals. From Day 2 (09 May) activity is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) levels, assuming there are no significant impacts from the aforementioned CME. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background levels.