Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
An increasing chance of some limited enhancements Thursday (UTC) onwards with a possible weak glancing coronal mass ejection and faster solar winds expected into the UTC weekend. Any aurora is likely to be limited to higher latitudes, with a chance for the north of Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
An increasing chance of some limited enhancements Thursday (UTC) onwards, with a possible weak glancing Coronal Mass Ejection and faster solar winds into the UTC weekend. Any aurora is likely to be limited to higher latitudes, with a chance of reaching the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 15:03 (GMT) on Thu 5 Nov 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of R1/Radio Blackouts throughout. Chance of G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storms Days 2-4.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with the peak flare from a region not yet visible on the southeast limb. There are now five sunspot regions visible on the disc. The most complex region on the disc resides in the southeast, a large and magnetically complex region. All other regions were simple with limited development.
No significant Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated the declining influence of a possible brief and weak fast wind, likely that of the previously visible CH08. Solar wind speeds initially slightly elevated, 430km/s, steadily declined to background, 330km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was generally weak. The important north-south component varied weakly, mostly negative (southward). The net result of the above solar wind measures was for Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) geomagnetic activity.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue, although there is a chance of isolated Moderate flaring.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A coronal mass ejection which left the Sun on 01 Nov is a most likely miss, but may glance Earth during Thursday 05 November. The next expected fast wind is most likely to arrive day 2 (06 Nov), with solar winds expected to become strong either day 2 or day 3 (06 or 07 Nov), likely lasting until day 4 (08 Nov).
Geomagnetic activity expected to remain generally Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) to start. Active (Kp4) intervals are then likely, with a chance of G1/Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp5) intervals from days 2-4 (06-08 Nov), with peak risk most likely on day 3 (07 Nov).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected.
Issued at: 12:56 (GMT) on Thu 5 Nov 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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