Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate-class flares throughout. Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Days 1-3 (06-08 Nov).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, with a flare which peaked at 05/1833 UTC from the most complex region in the southeast of the disc. This has significant magnetic complexity and it has also been growing new spots in recent hours. Another region at north centre disc has been growing more peripheral spots, mainly to the north, which could increase magnetic instability. Remaining regions are small and simple at the present time.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Whilst the Moderate flare from the more complex region appears to have produced a narrow CME, this appears to be travelling well to the east in available coronagraph imagery and is considered unlikely to be Earth directed.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were slow-ambient. Wind speeds were slow, varying between 310-380 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component varying weakly, and was mostly southward directed. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected, with a chance of further Moderate-class flares from the most complex region on the disc, and a slight chance of Strong flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun on 01 Nov is a most likely miss, but may glance Earth early on Day 1 (06 Nov). The next feature of interest is a coronal hole fast wind. The onset time is low confidence, perhaps with a weak onset during Day 1 (06 Nov), followed by a stronger fast wind into Day 2 (07 Nov). Solar winds are expected to become strong, likely reaching 550-650 km/s, and probably lasting for much of the period once established.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet (Kp 0-2) at first, becoming Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) with a chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) intervals as the fast wind sets in, then with activity likely declining later in the period. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is likely to remain at background levels, but there is a rising slight chance of exceeding the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold.