Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No significant enhancements to the auroral oval are expected initially. On Friday (UTC), coronal hole fast winds are likely to arrive, alongside a possible Coronal Mass Ejection glancing blow. Aurora sightings become likely across northern Scotland, with a chance of sightings across other parts of Scotland and perhaps northern England and similar magnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
No significant enhancements to the auroral oval are expected initially. On Friday (UTC), coronal hole fast winds are likely to arrive, alongside a possible Coronal Mass Ejection glancing blow. Aurora sightings become likely across southern New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes.
Issued at: 14:23 (GMT) on Tue 27 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1/Minor Storm likely, chance G2/Moderate Storm Day 4 (30 Oct).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with Common-class flares observed. There are two sunspot regions on the visible disc. One is approaching the southwest limb and is now difficult to analyse due to foreshortening, but does appear to have potentially been growing new spots. The other, in the southeast, is a simple and small unipolar region.
An eruption in the northeast of the disc started near the limb around 27/1930 UTC, but then spread closer towards centre disc over the course of the next 6-7 hours. This produced a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) which was largely northwards directed, but could have an Earth directed component, perhaps giving a glancing blow early on Day 4 (30 Oct), although the timing is low confidence.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a very weak enhancement either from a CME or weak fast wind effects. Speeds increased from background, between 320-380 km/s, to slightly elevated between 400-430 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly weak, but had some moderate peaks between 26/1500-27/0800 UTC. The north-south component mostly varied weakly, but again with moderate peaks. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles persisting at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is expected, with a slight chance of becoming Moderate, this decreasing a little into Day 2 (28 Oct) as one of the sunspot regions rotates off the disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun late on 26 Oct could give a glancing blow at Earth early on Day 4 (30 Oct), although the timing is low confidence. Solar winds are currently slightly elevated, but this should ease to background Day 1 to Day 2 (27-28 Oct). The next feature of interest is a coronal hole fast wind which is likely to arrive during Day 4 (30 Oct), with wind speeds up to 600 km/s possible. There is uncertainty regarding the onset time, along with the CME arrival time above, however there is the possibility of the two combining.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled until later Day 3 or Day 4 (29-30 Oct), when activity is expected to become Unsettled to Active, with G1/Minor Storm intervals likely and a chance of G2/Moderate Storm intervals, especially if the CME and fast wind combine.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles expected to persist at background levels.
Issued at: 12:56 (GMT) on Tue 27 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: