Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast solar winds may bring some very limited enhancement to the aurora through the period. A weak CME may also give a glance late on Saturday 06 Dec or Sunday 07 Dec (UTC), also bringing some slight enhancement, however this is low confidence. Any visibility is likely to remain limited to high latitudes, with a slight chance of being visible from the far north of Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast solar winds may bring some very limited enhancement to the aurora through the period. A weak CME may also give a glance late on Saturday 06 Dec or Sunday 07 Dec (UTC), perhaps bringing some further slight enhancement to the aurora at high latitudes, although this is low confidence. However, the reduced levels of darkness at this time year will restrict any potential for visibility.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate Solar Activity. Slight chance G1 Minor Storms.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with one Moderate-class flare at 04/0236UTC from a small region in the northeast disc. There are eight sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, the largest of which are in the southeast. While these have maintained small and weak mixed polarity spots, these have remained inactive, with some sign of slight weakening. A further small region, and the source of the most recent Strong (X-class) flare, persists in the northeast, also with a weak mixed polarity spot. The main growth on the disc was in smaller and simple regions on the east disc.
A very weak coronal mass ejection (CME) from the southwest disc, has been assessed as having a low chance of glancing Earth on day 2-3 (06-07 Dec), however this is very low confidence. All other CMEs have been assessed as missing Earth
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the onset of the fast winds from a coronal hole. Solar wind speed rose from Elevated, at 550km/s to around 600-700km/s from 04/0730 UTC, with brief peaks to 770km/s.. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Strong at first, but gradually eased to be mainly Weak from 04/0800 UTC. The north-south component rotated to be Moderately southward at 04/0128 UTC before turning Moderately northward by 04/0318 UTC. This component then weakened and remained Weak and variable. Geomagnetic activity was at G1 Minor Storm (Kp5) 04/0000-0300 UTC, then Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is expected, with isolated Moderate-class flares, and a slight chance of rising to High with an isolated Strong (X-class) flare. However there is a chance of activity fall to Low at times.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak CME, from the southwest disc on 04 Dec, has a slight chance of glancing day 2-3 (06-07 Dec). Ongoing fast winds from a coronal hole are expected at first, with speeds remaining Strong, before slowly declining from day 2 onward (06 Dec) to become Slightly Elevated, at 400-500 km/s, later in the period. However, further weak enhancements cannot be ruled out. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Unsettled to Active, easing to Quiet to Unsettled day 2 (06 Dec) onward with a chance of Active intervals. A slight chance of G1 Minor Storms persists, most likely day 2-3 (06-07 Dec).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring. However, there is an increasing chance of his rising as a response to any significant flares from the sunspot regions across the southern disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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