Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate solar activity expected. Chance of G1 Day 4 (09 Jul). Chance of S1/Minor radiation storms throughout.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate over the past 24 hours, with several M-class flares observed. The largest occurred at 05/1757 UTC from a region near the west limb.

There are now five sunspot regions on the visible disc, with one large region approaching the western limb. It is however mature and stable, hence unlikely to generate any significant flares. Another large region is currently rotating onto the eastern limb. Its smaller trailing spots are now fully visible, and the region is continuing to grow in apparent size as more of it rotates into view, although its magnetic classification remains unchanged The remaining regions are small and simple. 

Although numerous Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed over the past 24 hours, none are expected to have an Earth-directed component. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated a gradual return to a slow environment. Wind speeds continued to decline from 480 to 410 km/s.  Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the important North-South component mostly negative but negligible. Resulting geomagnetic activity gradually reduced from Active to Quiet.  

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was mostly at background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate activity is expected to continue, with occasional M-class flares and a slight chance of an isolated X-class flare. The recent departure of two major active regions may be partially offset by the arrival of the active region at the eastern limb. As a result, flare probabilities are expected to decrease only slightly.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: While multiple CMEs have been observed over the past 24 hours, none are currently considered to have an Earth-directed component. However, analysis of a couple of events is still pending.  Solar winds are expected to remain stable and around the lower end of slightly elevated levels initially, before the onset of the HSS from CH73/- on Day 4 (09 July), with speeds up to 600km/s. 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0–3) initially. Activity is then expected to increase on Day 4 (09 July), becoming Unsettled to Active, with a chance of isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm intervals. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained below the S1/Minor radiation storm level. There is a slight chance of proton flux exceeding the S1 (Minor) radiation storm threshold due to the presence of large regions near the western limb, the risk declining progressively.