Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain quiet through the start of the period with limited sightings expected. Auroral enhancements are then possible on Tuesday and Wednesday nights (UTC) due to the arrival of several Coronal Mass Ejections. However, any visibility is likely to be restricted to the northern parts of the UK. Viewing opportunities will also be limited by any cloud cover and the short hours of darkness at this time of year.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain quiet through the start of the period with limited sightings expected. Auroral enhancements are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday nights (UTC) due to the arrival of several Coronal Mass Ejections. However, any visibility is likely to be restricted to the southern parts of New Zealand and similar latitudes.
Issued at: 14:06 (GMT) on Mon 29 Jun 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Low to Moderate solar activity. G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storms from Coronal Mass Ejection arrivals on day 2 (30 Jun) and late day 3 into day 4 (01-02 Jul).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with occasional Common-class flares. The peak flare of C9.5 occurred at 28/2144 UTC from a most active region in the west. This region is in slow decline but has some magnetic complexity. Of the remaining four regions on the Earth-facing disc, in the east, remains a large region with some small growth in its intermediate region. It remains a magnetically complex region. In the centre-east the final significant region is continuing to develop and has also developed some magnetic complexity. The remaining spots are simple and in decline.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the easing connection to the fast winds of a coronal hole. Solar wind speeds, as measured were initially Slightly Elevated, at around 450 km/s, but eased through the period to become Slow-Ambient at around 380km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak with its north-south component also Weak and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity with a Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares, and a Slight Chance of a Strong (X-class) flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are up to two Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from the eruption late on 26 June, however these are likely to combine to give a single weak arrival on day 2 (30 Jun). Analysis from the CME on the 27 June suggests a slow moving CME may arrive late on day 3 (01 Jul) or during day 4 (02 Jul). Otherwise ongoing fast winds will continue easing toward Background during day 1 (29 Jun). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet with only a chance of Unsettled intervals. CME arrival on day 2 is expected to increase activity to Active to G1/ Minor Storms with a chance of G2/ Moderate Storms. These most likely with any following magnetic cloud, with the risk continuing into day 3 (01 Jul), possibly exacerbated later day 3 into day 4 (01-02 Jul) by the arrival of a further CME.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Issued at: 12:05 (GMT) on Mon 29 Jun 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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