Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of R1 Radio Blackouts Day 1. Reducing chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms each day.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, with a long period flare peaking Moderate at 12/0811UTC. There are now three sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. One on the southwest limb, which is the most active region on the disk but is becoming difficult to analyse, as it transitions around the limb. Another spot resides in the southwest, which is the largest region, but appears stable and simple. A new, moderately sized spot has rotated into view on the southeast limb, this spot appears to be simple.

Two coronal mass ejections  were observed on the morning of 12 Jul, from the southwest. One was wide and slower to the southwest and a faster secondary eruption to the northwest. These have been assessed as possibly giving Earth glancing blows later day 3 or day 4. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a waning high speed stream accompanied by glancing coronal mass ejection. Winds speeds were initially Elevated before falling to Slightly Elevated after 12/1800 UTC. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field rose from Weak to become Moderate at times between 12/0300-1500 UTC. The north-south component varied Weakly, though was predominantly negative between 12/0330-1130 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) with an Active (Kp4) interval 12/0900-1200UTC. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Mostly Low or Very Low activity, but with a Chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Up to four coronal mass ejections may arrive at Earth through the period, two either late Day 1 or Day 2 (13-14 Jul), with the other two possibly giving glancing effects late Day 3 into Day 4 (15-16 Jul).

Solar wind speeds are Elevated, due to waning coronal hole fast winds and post glancing 09 Jul coronal mass ejection impact. Solar wind speeds are likely to erratically decline close to Background for the remainder of the period. The exceptions to this are the possible arrivals of coronal mass ejections when speeds may become briefly Elevated.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled through much of the period. Active intervals, with a Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic storms are possible each day, though on a reducing risk, due to possible coronal mass ejection arrivals.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to remain at background levels.