Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate-class X-ray flares, otherwise no significant Space Weather expected. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has reached Moderate levels following a Moderate-class flare at 29/0704UTC from a region in the far northeast disc.

There are currently up to ten sunspot regions on the visible disc. A cluster in the south-centre disc which are currently magnetically simple. Another cluster of sunspots located in the southwest quadrant, both are fairly stable with limited evolution. AR4452 in the northwest is of interest due to its anti-Hale configuration (leading spot is of opposite polarity than expected for a northern hemisphere region in this Solar Cycle). Further waxing/waning of its small mixed polarity spots has been evident, however flare activity remains subdued. Elsewhere, AR4455 in the far northeast continues as a mature region with a large leading spot. This region produced the Moderate-class flare. AR4451 has faded to plage and the remaining spot regions are small and simple.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed leaving the Sun during the past 24 hours.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated the influence of a coronal hole fast wind, located in the southwest disc. Wind speeds were Slightly Elevated, generally around 400-460km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak to Moderate. The north-south component varied, mostly weakly, but becoming briefly Moderate at times. There was a tendency for more prolonged southward directed periods between 29/1200UTC and 29/1900UTC. Geomagnetic activity was generally Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) with an Active interval (Kp 4) from 29/1800UTC to 29/2100UTC.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels were at normal background values.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Generally Low but with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs currently feature in the forecast. However, some weak ejecta from minor events over the past couple of days could cause temporary, slight solar wind enhancements at Earth from Day 1 (30 May) onwards.

Solar winds are currently Slightly Elevated following the onset of the fast wind from a coronal hole. This enhancement is expected to continue at similar speeds until until later Day 1 (30 May) before easing. Thereafter, a second, minor fast wind enhancement appears likely between Days 2 and 3 (31 May and 01 June). Both fast wind enhancements are unlikely to lead to a significant geomagnetic response at Earth.

Generally Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected, but with a chance of isolated Active periods, mainly in response to any potential weak CME or coronal hole influences on subsequent days.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar Radiation counts are at normal background levels. Solar Radiation storms are considered very unlikely to occur during the forecast period.