Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds have been causing a high latitude enhancement to the auroral oval which may continue into Tuesday night UTC, with a slight chance of sightings over northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes. Thereafter aurora is expected to return to background levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds have been causing a high latitude enhancement to the auroral oval which may continue into Tuesday night UTC. Thereafter aurora is expected to return to background levels.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Storms on Day 1 (24 Feb). Chance of Moderate flares from Day 2 (25 Feb).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity has been Low, with no significant flares observed in the past 24 hours, but a gradual increase in the background x-ray flux. There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disc. Some east limb looping can be seen in satellite imagery, perhaps partially associated with the return of a large region which gave several Strong flares on the previous rotation.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed ongoing fast winds from a coronal hole. Wind speeds were mostly strong, but declined slightly from near 700 km/s to around 600 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely at first, with a slight chance of a Moderate-class flare. This risk increases into Day 2 to become mainly Low, perhaps Moderate, this due to potential activity from oncoming region(s) on the east limb.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no CMEs in the forecast.
Solar winds are currently strong due to a coronal hole fast wind. Wind speeds are expected to be elevated to strong through Days 1-2 (24-25 Feb), before a gradual decline towards slightly elevated or background levels becomes likely by Day 4 (27 Feb).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Active, with a chance of G1/Minor storm intervals through Day 1 (24 Feb). Conditions should gradually wane to become mainly Quiet to Unsettled by Days 3 and 4 (26-27 Feb).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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