Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, with two M-class flares observed, the largest an M3.2 event peaking at 26/1528 UTC, both originating from AR4494.

Nine sunspot regions are visible on the solar disc. The largest region is rotating off the western limb, while the remaining regions, including those near the centre of the disc, are either weakening or magnetically simple. A new region is emerging over the eastern limb, although it is still too early to assess its development.

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed on 26 July, likely associated with the M3.2 flare from AR4494. Analysis has been hampered by a lack of available coronagraph imagery; however, an Earth-directed component appears likely given the flare location. The CME looks faint, but may deliver a weak glancing blow to Earth around 29/30 July.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind observations indicated that the recent enhancement from the coronal hole high-speed stream was weakening. Wind speeds gradually reduced from 530 to 370 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at background levels with no Solar Radiation storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly Low, with a chance of isolated M-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The CME that was expected to arrive early on 27 July has probably missed Earth. While a late arrival is still possible, it is looking more and more unlikely. Another CME was observed on 26 July, likely associated with the M3.2 flare from AR4494. This one may deliver a weak glancing blow to Earth around 29/30 July.

Solar wind speeds are continuing to ease otherwise, following the recent connection to the high-speed stream from CH79/-.

Geomagnetic activity is forecast to remain predominantly Quiet, with only the occasional Unsettled interval possible. The activity may increase to give a couple of Active intervals, mostly at the end of Day 3 and into Day 4 (29 & 30 July), should Earth experience any glancing CME. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to remain at background levels.