Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor storms Days 2-3 (19-20 Aug). Chance of Moderate class flares. 

Chance of Moderate class flares. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with only low-level Common-class flares observed in the past 24 hours.

There are currently four sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The most complex region is in the western, central part of the disc. It has seen some growth in it's intermediate spots over the last few hours along with developing some spots of mixed-polarity.  The two smaller spots in the northwest have also seen some minor growth in recent hours.  The one remaining spot is smaller and more simple. 

No Earth directed CMEs were observed during this period. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed some slightly perturbed conditions. This could be due to a very glancing blow from the expected Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) in association with a filament (arc of plasma) eruption on 14 Aug, or from a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of the next fast wind from two of the coronal holes facing Earth, but this is low confidence. Solar wind speeds were initially at background, around 300km/s, before increasing to reach Slightly Elevated levels, peaking at 430km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Moderate. The north-south component, Bz, was moderately variable, but favoured a negative direction to end this period. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity will most likely remain Low, however there is a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares, most likely from AR4507. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: 

A Coronal mass Ejection (CME) associated with a Common-class flare from the largest region in the western hemisphere on the 16 Aug may deliver a glancing blow at Earth on Day 3 (20 Aug). Confidence is low. 

A fast wind from a couple of coronal holes which are facing Earth may arrive during this period, perhaps late on Day 1 (18 Aug), but more likely through Day 2 (19 Aug), before gradually declining through Days 3-4 (20-21 Aug). Solar wind speeds reached 700 km/s on last rotation, but there is significant uncertainty regarding possible speeds this time around. 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Active (Kp1-4) on Day 1 (18 Aug) due to waning CME or CIR influences. The next enhancement will be the fast wind from the two coronal holes facing Earth, either late Day 1 (18 Aug), or more likely through Day 2 (19 Aug), which along with glancing CME effects on Day 3 (20 Aug) keeps a chance of G1/Minor Storms through Days 2 and 3 (19-20 Aug), before activity likely returns to mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels on Day 4 (21 Aug). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is likely to continue at background levels.