Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A connection to the fast wind of a small coronal hole and glancing impact from a slow Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) are both possible later on 25 Oct (UTC). This could lead to a slight chance of visible aurora from the far north of Scotland and similar latitudes, dependent on timing into early 26 Oct. Otherwise, no significant enhancements to the auroral oval are expected in the coming days.
Southern Hemisphere
A connection to the fast wind of a small coronal hole and glancing impact from a slow Coronal Mass Ejection are both possible later on 25 Oct (UTC). This could lead to a slight chance of visible aurora from the far south of New Zealand, perhaps Tasmania and from similar geomagnetic latitudes, dependent on timing into early 26 Oct. Otherwise, no significant enhancements to the auroral oval are expected in the coming days.
Issued at: 13:34 (GMT) on Sun 25 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of G1/Minor Storms Day 1 (25 Oct).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with only a solitary low-level C-class flare observed during the observation period. There are two regions on the disc, with one moderately sized region now rotated over the western limb. The largest region on the disc, in the northwestern quadrant underwent a slight decrease in size, remaining as a lengthy, albeit, sparsely populated region in terms of large spots and with a fairly simple magnetic structure. A region in the southwest disc is difficult to discern, but has seen occasional proliferation of small spots or pores. The region is very small and has a simple magnetic configuration.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were Background, with Slow-Ambient speeds. Density was below average. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak, below 6nT. The north-south component, Bz, varied Weakly, between +/-4nT. Phi angle was generally positive (away from the Sun). Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed with the count rate of energetic particles persisting at Background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is expected during the four-day forecast period, with a slight chance of increasing to Moderate levels.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A coronal mass ejection from 21 Oct may still yet give a glancing blow later Day 1 (25 Oct), though confidence is low. Currently solar winds are Slow-Ambient. A minor enhancement to Slightly Elevated levels is possible on Days 1 and 2 (25 and 26 Oct) due to possible fast winds from a small coronal hole in the western disc, otherwise Slow solar winds should predominate throughout the forecast period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet (Kp 0-2) at first, then possibly becoming Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) on Day 1 (25 Oct), with a slight chance of G1/Minor Storms (Kp5) intervals given the potential for coronal mass ejection and/or coronal hole onset effects. Between Days 2 and 4 (26 and 28 Oct) geomagnetic conditions are expected to be predominantly Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are forecast with the count rate of energetic particles expected to persist at Background levels.
Issued at: 13:13 (GMT) on Sun 25 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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