Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The prospects for enhanced auroral displays should increase through the second half of the current UTC working week, with a fast solar wind due from midweek UTC that may yet be enhanced further by a possible inbound CME, although the chances of these occurring together to increase effects are now judged less likely, with a longer period of more minor high geomagnetic latitude activity instead preferred.
Southern Hemisphere
The prospects for enhanced auroral displays should increase through the second half of the current UTC working week, with a fast solar wind due from midweek UTC that may yet be enhanced further by a possible inbound CME, although the chances of these occurring together to increase effects are now judged less likely, with a longer period of more minor high geomagnetic latitude activity instead preferred.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor Radio Blackouts (R1) Likely. Minor Geomagnetic Storms (G1) likely midweek UTC, slight chance of Moderate (G2).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity was Moderate, with a low-end Moderate-class flare observed at 28/1353UTC from the large and magnetically complex region located in the northwest quadrant.
There are currently six sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. There remains two main groups on the facing side in terms of complexity, being the most active - in the northwest - and a second group in the northeast. The most active group has shown some consolidation in the period, with a more open character relative to the UTC weekend, although it does still harbour some complexity. The remaining regions were generally smaller, simpler and more stable, although a region in the north centre showed a spreading tendency and some minor trailing spot development.
No new Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were identified in available satellite imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind speed observed showed an exit from a positive polarity coronal hole with a slow regime taking its place. The solar wind speed declined from Slightly Elevated levels, peaking at 420km/s to the current slow-regime, with speeds near 350km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was weak, while the all important north-south component was also weak.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was provisionally Quiet geomagnetic activity throughout.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate solar activity is likely, with isolated Moderate‑class flares and a slight chance of isolated Strong‑class flares. No regions arrive or depart the facing side in the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The recent fast wind has now faded, with no further significant geomagnetic effects anticipated. Quiet conditions are expected until midweek UTC, whereupon the fast wind from a coronal hole is due, producing a Likely G1/Minor storm and a Slight Chance of G2/Moderate storm on Days 2 and 3 (30 Apr to 01 May). The latter is contingent on minor corona mass ejection (CME) influence following the fast wind, with this carrying very low confidence, but perhaps rounding out the four-day period. The alternative scenario (no CME) would see a more rapid easing of geomagnetic activity. The attribution of the identified CME is highly uncertain, but may link to the Moderate flare observed 26/2257UTC. Geomagnetic activity becoming mostly Quiet to Unsettled by Day 4 (02 May).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a level daily Slight Chance of exceeding Minor Solar Radiation Storms (S1) due to the larger Earth-facing regions' westward advance on the Sun.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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