Space Weather Forecast Headline: Low to Moderate solar activity.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Low with occasional Common-class flares. The strongest of these was from a mature bipolar group and the largest of the six sunspot regions in the east solar disc. Despite its size and some slight complexity within its intermediate the region this has remained relatively inactive aside from the occasional Common-class flare. A further small region in the south-centre disc is also of interest, despite apparent simplicity due to lines of material, or filaments, that lie across the sunspot. Another region in the northeast remains a simple bipolar group aside from its non-typical north-south orientation.

Two Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed to the south of the small region in the south disc which left the Sun at 26/2130 UTC.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds show an ongoing connection to the fast winds of a coronal hole. Solar wind speeds were initially Strong, around 600-700 km/s but since 27/0500 UTC have been Elevated between 530-580 km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component, was variable and also Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with isolated M-flares likely given the large region of in the east, or the developing region just west of the south-centre disc.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are two Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), which left the Sun at 26/2130 UTC. Ongoing fast winds from a coronal hole are expected to gradually ease toward Background by day 4 (30 Jun) with further enhancements anticipated later on day 4 associated with the arrival of the two CMEs. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled at first, with a decreasing chance of Active intervals. By days 3-4  (29-30 Jun) mainly Quiet activity is expected with only a Chance of Unsettled intervals. Later on day 4 (30 Jun), Unsettled to Active conditions are expected with the Chance of G1/ Minor to G2/ Moderate Storm intervals.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.