Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1-G2 Minor-Moderate storms likely Days 1-3 (02-04 Apr) due to fast wind and CME influence. Chance of M-class flares and S1/Minor radiation storms. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Low with Common-class flares observed. There are now eleven regions on the Earth-facing disc. The previously active region at south centre disc continues to display an interesting structure above the spot, which was likely the reason for the Strong flare on 30 Mar. However, the spot itself remains relatively simple in terms of its magnetic structure and visible appearance. A region in the northeast has seen continued development, with slightly increased magnetic complexity and a continued slight growth trend. Despite this it remains a small region. All other regions appear small and simple.

Around 01/2230 UTC an eruption was observed, leading to a wide Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) travelling to the northwest in satellite imagery. This CME been assessed as likely reaching Earth late on 03 April, but confidence is low due to limited imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed weak CME effects initially, followed by the onset of a coronal hole fast wind. Wind speeds were slightly elevated at first between 400-500 km/s, rising to strong between 500-650 km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength was mostly moderate with some strong peaks. The north-south component varied moderately, but was largely southward directed. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (KP 1-3) at first, with Active to G1/Minor Storm (Kp 4-5) intervals after 02/0000 UTC.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) rose a little above normal background levels from 02/0200 UTC, but remains below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is likely to be Low, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares, and a slight chance of rising to High should the region in the south give another Strong flare.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A wide CME left the Sun late on 01 Apr, and is most likely to arrive at Earth later on Day 2 (03 Apr) or early on Day 3 (04 Apr). Confidence is low, given that much of the CME's material could have been deflected away from Earth, in which case the CME could be fairly weak. Earth is currently in a coronal hole fast wind, with wind speeds around 600 km/s. This is likely to continue into Day 2, but start easing during Day 3. However, the anticipated CME is likely to arrive before the fast wind eases, adding further uncertainty to the forecast.

Unsettled to G1/Minor Storm conditions are expected, with a chance of G2/Moderate Storm Days 1-3 (02-04 Apr) and a slight chance of reaching G3/Strong storm intervals on Days 2-3. Geomagnetic activity is then likely to ease into Day 4 (05 Apr).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) is just above background levels, with a chance of rising above the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold, especially when the CME arrives.