Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Radio Blackouts (R1) to round out UTC working week.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Low activity, with only Common-class flares observed over the past 24 hours. There are currently six sunspots regions on the Earth-facing disc. A moderately sized sunspot region in the northwest quadrant remains the largest on the disc. Meanwhile, a sunspot region in the southeast quadrant is the most complex and consists of a large delta spot, although remains stable. The remaining sunspot regions are relatively small, stable and remain unchanged. 

A large prominence eruption (arc of plasm) was seen to lift off from the far northeast of the Sun around 23/1700UTC, apparently from the far-side. This does not have any Earth-directed component. 

A filament eruption (arc of plasma) lift-off was observed at 24/0420UTC in the southeast quadrant has produced a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), which could potentially be Earth-directed, with ejecta material clearly seen along the Sun-Earth line in coronagraph imagery. An analysis of this event is currently on-going. 

There were no other Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) visible in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: 

Solar winds were indicative of a coronal hole fast wind, which is located in the southwestern quadrant of the disc. Solar wind speeds were Strong, peaking near 750km/s, before a gradual decline to near 600km/s. The Earth's magnetic field was Moderate, while the all-important north-south component, Bz, was more erratic, and Moderately negative (southward orientated). The result of the above solar wind parameters was for initially Quiet conditions, reaching G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) at 23/1500-1800UTC and again at 23/1800-2100UTC, before reverting back to the current Quiet conditions. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: There is a daily chance of isolated Moderate-class activity, most probably from the largest sunspot region, or perhaps now a growing region in the southeast given recent trends. No significant regions are due to arrive in the period, with just one minor departure of the UTC weekend, giving a relatively flat trend.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A potentially Earth-directed CME, which left Sun on 21 July, was due to glance Earth early on the current UTC day, although there are no obvious signs that this feature is imminent and is considered well overdue and likely to have missed Earth. Otherwise, the current fast wind is expected to be sustained to end the current UTC working week, with a gradual declining trend. Geomagnetic activity is likely to be Quiet to Unsettled, with a slight chance of Active intervals, throughout the period. 

However, this is dependent on the aforementioned filament eruption observed at 24/0420UTC in the southeast quadrant, and the associated CME. The ejecta was clearly seen along the Sun-Earth line in coronagraph imagery. An analysis of this event is currently on-going. Pending results. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a daily Slight Chance of S1 Minor Solar Radiation Storm S1 or greater - should any notable flares occur, most likely from the western solar hemisphere.