Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of R1 Radio Blackouts. Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic storms days 1 and 2.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with a number of middling Common-class flares observed. There are four sunspot regions visible on the Earth-facing disc, with the largest spot being located near the east limb. This is a long and large spot with a distinct leader and trailer and smaller intermediate spots. The next largest region is located in the southeast, and has a large leader, and developed some rudimentary penumbra around the small peripheral trailing spots. The remaining two spots are much smaller and simple.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in available imagery. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have shown a connection to fast winds through the period. Solar wind speeds rose from Slightly Elevated to become Strong, remaining steady since 25/0000 UTC. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mainly Moderate, before falling to Weak, after 25/0700 UTC. The north-south component, was variable in direction and Weak, with brief periods at Moderate. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4) with a single interval of G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) between 25/0300-0600 UTC.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue, but with a chance of rising to Moderate due to the potential for isolated Moderate-class flares from the sunspot region near the eastern limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections. The connection to coronal hole fast winds is ongoing and has resulted in Strong solar wind speeds. Earth is then most likely to transit, perhaps seamlessly, into the fast winds of the next coronal hole later day 1 (25 Jun) or into day 2 (26 Jun), with wind speeds largely maintained near current levels.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) with a Chance of further G1 Minor Storms (Kp5) and a Slight Chance of G2 Moderate Storms (Kp6) through days 1 and 2 (25-26 Jun). Geomagnetic activity is then expected to ease back towards Quiet to Unsettled with a Chance of Active on days 3-4 (27-28 Jun).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.