Space Weather Forecast Headline: Low to Moderate solar activity. G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storms from Coronal Mass Ejection arrival on day 3 and into day 4 (30 Jun-01 Jul).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Low with occasional Common-class flares, peaking at 27/2102 UTC from a small sunspot region in the southwest disc, alongside a much slower occurring flare, associated with changes in the surrounding magnetic material near the spot. Despite it being a small region in visible appearance it does have more complex magnetic looping above the region. The large, but mature and relatively inactive region in the southwest continued to simplify. A new region was observed emerging in the south-centre disc, while the region in the northeast has stabilised as a simple bipolar spot, and very small region in the northwest has gradually decayed.

The broad flare from near the small sunspot has produced a weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). However analysis is still ongoing. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the easing connection to the fast winds of a coronal hole. Solar wind speeds, as measured were initially Strong, at around 650 km/s, but eased through the period to become Slightly Elevated at just below 500km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak with its north-south component also Weak and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with isolated Moderate-class flares likely, and a very slight chance of a Strong (X-class) flare.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are up to two Earth-directed CMEs from the eruption late on 26 Jun, however these are likely to combine to give a single weak arrival on day 3 (30 Jun). Otherwise ongoing fast winds will continue easing toward Background by the end of day 2 (29 Jun). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet with only a chance of Unsettled intervals. CME arrival on day 3 is expected to increase activity to Active to G1 Minor Storms with a chance of G2 Moderate Storms. These most likely with any following magnetic cloud, with the risk continuing into day 4 (01 Jul).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.