Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storming throughout. R1/Radio Blackouts Likely throughout. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, peaking 09/1409 UTC from a region beyond the northwest limb. There are now five sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest and most complex is in the northwest. It still has significant magnetic complexity as it has mixed polarity within a number of leading and intermediate spots. The other notable spot is near the southeast limb, and is exhibiting a large bipolar structure with clearly defined umbra and penumbra around the leading and trailing portions. This region may be larger and perhaps more complex than currently indicated. The other two regions are small and simple at present.

 No further Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated mostly background conditions, with a possible weak enhancement, starting around 09/1000 UTC likely from the 06 Oct coronal mass ejection. The wind speed was Slow, though began to rise after 09/1030 UTC, peaking at Slightly Elevated. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly Weak, but became Moderate between 09/1223-1410 UTC, peaking at 09/1044 UTC. The north-south component was generally Weak and southward directed (negative), but became Moderate and northward directed (positive) between 09/1126-1210 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3), with a solitary Active (Kp4) interval between 09/0900-1200 UTC.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation has been at mostly background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with further Moderate-class flares likely and a slight chance of Strong flares, mainly from the complex region in the northwest, but perhaps the newly numbered region near the southeast limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Two coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast period, the first giving a possible glancing blow during the latter half of Day 1 (10 Oct). The Second giving a possible glancing blow later Day 2 (11 Oct), though confidence is low for timing of both features.

Solar wind speeds are currently at background levels. Away from coronal mass ejection influence, winds could become slightly elevated Day 1 with the fast wind from the southern coronal hole. The next significant coronal hole, in the east may arrive late on Day 3 (12 Oct), but more likely Day 4 (13 Oct), with speeds reaching Elevated.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3) through the period. There is a daily Likelihood of Active (Kp4) periods, a Chance of G1/Minor storming (Kp5), and a Slight Chance of G2/Moderate storming (Kp6) due to glancing coronal mass ejection influences Day 1 and Day 2 (10-11 Oct), then coronal hole fast winds Day 3 and Day 4 (12-13 Oct).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight chance of S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storms throughout the period.