Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate-class flares throughout. 

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, with a long duration Moderate class flare from a region which has now rotated off the west limb.

There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc, and one new region. A region in the northeast is the most notable on the disc, as it is the largest, with the greatest magnetic complexity. The remaining regions are much smaller, weaker, magnetically simple and generally showing little change.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) are currently expected during the forecast period, with the CME associated with the long duration Moderate class flare (21 Aug) flare now analysed and expected to miss Earth.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds as measured by L1 at SOLAR-1, were indicative of a fast wind regime, from two coronal holes. Speeds where predominantly Elevated at first, peaking at 563 km/s at 21/0104 UTC. Through the day the wind speeds slowly declined, to end the period at Slightly Elevated levels around 450 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, has been Weak. The north-south component, Bz, has been Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at Background initially but increased to become Slightly Elevated.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is likely to be Low to Moderate, with a chance of further Moderate-class flares and a slight chance of a Strong flare, mostly from the region in the northeast. One or more new or returning regions are expected to rotate onto the disc, from the far side, most likely during Day 2 (23 Aug) onwards. However, these regions are not expected to significantly influence solar activity.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Earth is currently under the influence of a solar wind enhancement from one or two coronal holes in the western hemisphere. The solar wind enhancement will continue to gradually decline through the period, from initial Slightly Elevated speeds around 450 km/s down to Background levels from Days 2 or 3 (23 and 24 Aug) onwards. As no Earth directed CME's are currently expected geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet overall, with a chance for periods of Unsettled activity, mainly on Day 1 (22 Aug)

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 > MeV proton flux is currently Slightly Elevated with a rising trend. It is likely that the proton flux will reach S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storm levels through Day 1 (22 Aug) and at first Day 2 (23 Aug). Thereafter the proton flux is expected to gradually decline, reaching background levels for Day 4 (25 Aug). However, this assumes no significant flares occur during Day 1 from the active region, that generated the proton flux rise , as it continues to rotate further across the far side.