Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No enhancements are expected to the auroral oval on 4–5 September. Some slight enhancements may occur during 6–7 September, potentially allowing the aurora to become visible across the far north of Scotland and similar latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
No enhancements are expected to the auroral oval on 4–5 September. Coronal hole fast winds, along with a low-confidence, weak, glancing CME, may bring slight enhancements during 6–7 September, potentially allowing the aurora to become visible across southern Tasmania, New Zealand and at similar latitudes.
Issued at: 21:43 (GMT) on Thu 3 Sep 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate (R1-R2) class flares, slight chance of an isolated Strong class flare (R3).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity is currently Low with only C-class flares observed in the past 24 hours, the peak being a common class flare from a region in the northeast at 03/1829UTC
There are three sunspots on the visible disc. All are present in the northeast and appear as magnetically simple regions. A separate region, just over the northeast limb has resulted in occasional flare activity. This is a returning region that was magnetically complex in mid-August, when it was last on the facing-disc. It is expected to imminently come into view in solar imagery.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of predominantly slow wind conditions. Solar wind speed remained at mostly background levels, between around 370-420km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was generally Weak, but with a Moderate peak in the early hours of 03 Sep (UTC). The important north-south component was with neither direction dominant. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) at geostationary orbit was at background. No Solar Radiation Storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is likely to become Moderate with further Moderate flares likely and a slight chance of an isolated strong flare, most likely from the returning region currently just over the northeast limb.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A very weak CME from 02 Sep may give a low-confidence, possible impact on Days 3-4 (06-07 Sep), but with only minor effects expected. Coronal hole fast winds may also become geoeffective around from later Day 3, but this also low confidence. Otherwise background solar winds are expected.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet (Kp0-2), but may increase to Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) on Days 3-4 (06-07 Sep) if fast winds from CH91/+ or a impact from the slow CME are observed. This would also give a slight chance of isolated Minor storm/G1 (Kp5) intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The number of energetic particles (high energy proton flux) is forecast to remain at background, with no solar radiation storms expected.
Issued at: 00:14 (GMT) on Fri 4 Sep 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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