Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast winds could bring some very limited enhancements to the aurora overnight on Monday (UTC). Any visibility is likely to remain limited to northernmost latitudes, with viewings unlikely to extend as far south as northern Scotland or similar geomagnetic latitudes. Background aurora conditions are then expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
Southern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast winds could bring some very limited enhancements to the aurora overnight on Monday (UTC). However, any visibility is likely to remain limited to Antarctica, with viewings unlikely to extend further north. Background aurora conditions are then expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
Issued at: 15:11 (GMT) on Mon 5 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Further G1 Minor storm intervals possible early day 1 (05 Oct).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Very Low with only isolated low-level flares observed. There are five small and magnetically simple regions on the visible disc. One, on the western limb, will soon rotate off the visible disc. A sunspot region in the northwest, has seen some development of small intermediate spots, with growth in the penumbra of the trailing spot. A sunspot in the northeast, is a simple bipolar group with development of some spots in the southern part of the region. An un-named region, also in the northeast, has seen rapid development with an increase in size and number of trailing spots, as well as the length of the region. The region in the southeast, is a mature unipolar spot.
A far-sided Coronal Mass Ejection from the northeast has been observed and is still under analysis.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A connection to fast winds from a coronal hole was observed. Solar winds accelerated from Slightly Elevated at around 480km/s to a peak of 643km/s at 04/1807 UTC. They then reduced slightly to Elevated and have been fairly stable around 560-570km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Strong at first, and has been declining since, and now is currently Weak. The north-south component, Bz, was Moderate and variable at first, and has now become Weak and variable. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) with G1/Minor Storm intervals (Kp 5), but has since reduced to Quiet (Kp 1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 >10MeV proton flux was at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is expected, with a chance of C-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections, though there was one from the far-side in the northeast around 05/0722 UTC. This is unlikely to reach Earth due to it's position. Fast winds of CH98/+ will persist early day 1 (05 Oct), but are then expected to gradually ease through the period with mainly Background winds later day 3 and day 4 (07-08 Oct). Active to G1 Minor Storms at first, will ease to Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of Active intervals by day 2 (06 Oct), then mainly Quiet to Unsettled day 3-4 (07-08 Oct).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to remain at Background.
Issued at: 12:07 (GMT) on Mon 5 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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