Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Aurora is expected to return to background levels early in this period, with sightings unlikely from even northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Aurora is expected to return to background levels early in this period, with sightings likely limited to Antarctica and unlikely to extend any further north
Issued at: 23:00 (GMT) on Mon 5 Oct 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of G1 Minor storm intervals Day 1 (06 Oct) and Day 4 (09 Oct). Chance of R1/Minor radio blackouts.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate, with a single impulsive moderate class flare observed at 05/1848UTC from a region in the northeast. There are four sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest is in the northeast, which continues to develop within its intermediate spots and displays increasing magnetic complexity. A region also in the northeast, has shown further development within its leading spots. A region in the northwest, has also seen some slight development, although it retains a relatively simple magnetic configuration. A region in the southeast, remains a mature and stable unipolar sunspot.
No Earth directed CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were observed in this forecast period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing coronal hole fast winds were observed. Solar winds were elevated to strong, between 530-640km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Moderate at first, but declined through the period to weak levels. The north-south component was weak and variable, but favoured a negative direction during the latter half of the period. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp1-4), with one G1/Minor storm interval (Kp5) at 05/0300-0600 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES-18 >10MeV proton flux was at Background, but showed a slight rise following the Moderate flare at 05/1848UTC from the region in the northeast.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is now expected to be Low-Moderate with a chance of further Moderate flares, most likely from the two regions in the northeast.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth directed CMEs. Fast winds from the large coronal hole in the west are expected to ease through Days 1-3 (06-08 Oct), perhaps back to background levels by Day 3 (08 Oct). Fast winds from the small coronal hole near centre disc may cause further enhancements on Day 4 (09 Oct), with solar winds perhaps increasing to slightly elevated levels.
Activity is expected to be Unsettled to Activity initially, with just a slight chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals at first. Activity then likely to ease to mainly Quiet levels by the end of Day 1 (06 Oct). Activity may become Unsettled to Active again Day 4 (09 Oct), with a slight chance of G1/Minor storm intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a slight, but increasing, chance of GOES-18 >10MeV proton flux approaching the S1/Minor storm threshold through this period.
Issued at: 00:12 (GMT) on Tue 6 Oct 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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