Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor storms Likely days 1 to 2 (12 to 13 Jun). Chance of isolated Moderate class flares throughout.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has remained Low over the past 24 hours, with several Common-class flares observed. The strongest event was an impulsive C9.0 flare from a region located in the northeast quadrant.

There are currently five sunspot regions visible on the side of the Sun facing Earth. The largest and most active is located in the northeast, which contains a large main sunspot surrounded by many smaller spots. Its magnetic field is quite complex, making it a region of interest for possible solar activity.

Another region being closely watched is located near the south-central part of the Sun. It has been growing in size over recent hours, with two new sunspots appearing on its southern edge. These new spots are showing signs of increasing magnetic complexity, which could lead to further activity.

The remaining sunspot regions are smaller and relatively quiet.

A partial halo CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) was observed in satellite imagery following a long-duration flare that occurred about 24 hours ago. Most of the ejected material appears to be directed behind Earth's orbit, although a glancing impact cannot be ruled out. Initial modelling suggests any associated effects could reach Earth around 13/1500 UTC.

A small solar filament disappeared from the southwest quadrant around 11/0850 UTC, near the location of a former active region. However, no associated CME was observed in coronagraph imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind data indicated the arrival of a high-speed stream from a coronal hole. Wind speeds were steady at around 370–400 km/s before increasing late in the period to 500 km/s. The number of particles the solar wind is made of suddenly rose around 11/1652 UTC, likely marking the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of the high-speed stream. The solar magnetic field also strengthened during the day and turned mostly southward during the evening, a configuration that can support increased geomagnetic activity.

Geomagnetic activity was initially low, with conditions ranging from Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1–3). Activity increased after 11/1800 UTC, reaching Active levels and culminating in a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm between 11/1800-2100 UTC.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained at Background, with no solar radiation storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to remain Low during the forecast period, though isolated Moderate-class flares are possible. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The partial halo CME observed during the early UTC hours of the 11 June may give Earth a glancing blow on day 2 (13 Jun), around 13/1500UTC. Two other weak eruptions also have the potential to produce minor, glancing impacts. However, they are likely to be overtaken and absorbed by the larger partial halo CME.

Solar wind speeds are expected to remain elevated on 12 June under the influence of the high-speed stream (HSS) originating from CH63/-. Conditions are then expected to gradually ease during 13 June, although solar wind speeds could become enhanced again if a glancing CME arrives during the period.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet (Kp 1-2). However, activity may rise to Active and G1/Minor Storm (Kp 4-5) at the beginning of day 1 (12 June) under the influence of CH63/- fast wind, and at the end of day 2 (13 Jun), from any significant glancing CME impact. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to remain at Background, with no solar radiation storms occurring.