Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be at mostly background levels, as ongoing enhanced solar winds continue to gradually ease. No significant enhancements are currently forecast, with aurora sightings unlikely away from high latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be at mostly background levels, as ongoing enhanced solar winds continue to gradually ease. No significant enhancements are currently forecast, with aurora sightings unlikely away from high latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity has been Low with only Common class flares, the from a region behind the east limb. There are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk, all of which are still close to the east limb and therefore the viewing angle is currently hindering analyse. One moderately sized region near the northeast limb appears simple at present but is potentially a returning region which was the source of a number of Strong flares on the previous rotation. The remaining regions are close to the southeast limb, one a small and simple region whilst the other region is larger and potentially complex.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed ongoing coronal hole fast winds. Wind speeds were predominantly Elevated, between 500-570 km/s but on a declining trend, falling to Slightly Elevated levels around 490 km/s late in the day. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength was weak, with the north-south component also weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with an increasing chance of isolated Moderate-class flares as new or returning regions are expected to rotate onto the disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME was observed leaving the Sun early on the 25th Feb associated with a filament and Common class flare near centre disk. Confidence is low but a weak impact with Earth is possible on Day 3 (1st March). Ongoing fast winds from a coronal hole feature are expected to gradually and erratically ease through the period, to be near Background by day 3 (01 Mar), with little change through Day 4 (2nd Mar).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated Active intervals today (27 Feb) and a chance of a minor storm on day 3 (1st March), should the weak CME impact Earth.
Solar winds are currently Slightly Elevated, due to the easing fast winds, and are expected to continue to gradually and erratically decline towards Background by day 4 (28 Feb). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of isolated Active intervals through day 1 (27 Feb). Should the weak CME impact Earth on day 3 (1st March) then there will be a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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