Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No significant aurora enhancement is expected at first, however coronal hole fast winds arriving on 17 Jan will bring some minor enhancement over the weekend. Aurora sightings will be mainly at high latitudes, but with a chance of reaching northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
No significant aurora enhancement is expected at first, however coronal hole fast winds arriving on 17 Jan will bring some minor enhancement over the weekend. Aurora sightings will be mainly at high latitudes, perhaps with a chance from the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear. Sightings may be limited by the short hours of darkness at this time of year.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate solar flares. Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms on Days 3 and 4 (17-18 Jan).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity increased to Moderate following a Moderate-class flare at 14/2033UTC from a large and magnetically complex region located toward the southeast limb.
This is the largest region on the visible disc with up to four further sunspot regions. Toward the northeast limb is a bipolar group with a moderately large lead spot and some small trailing spots also evident, but the view angle prevents a definitive analysis. Another bipolar group in the southwest also consists of one main lead spot with some newly emerged small trailing spots. A bipolar group approaching the north central disc continues to develop with signs of increased magnetic complexity trying to form in the trailing spots.
There have been no significant Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the last 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of ongoing fast wind influence. Wind speeds were initially elevated near 500 km/s, declining erratically to near 470km/s, before a further slight increase 600-450km/s but often in the range 500-550km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak. The north-south component also varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be mostly Low, but with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth directed CMEs are currently expected. Solar wind speeds are currently elevated due to the ongoing coronal hole fast wind. A gradual and erratic decline in solar wind speeds towards slightly elevated to background levels is expected through Days 1-2 (15-16 Jan). The next feature is the onset of a further fast wind, likely later on Day 3 (17 Jan). Wind speeds are expected to become strong, likely reaching above 700 km/s.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be generally Quiet on Days 1-2 with an initial slight chance of Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) intervals. Into Days 3 and 4 (17-18 Jan) activity is expected to increase to become Unsettled to Active, with a chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently at background levels and expected to remain so in the absence of significant flare activity.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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