Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see a slight enhancement on Wednesday or more likely on Thursday due to the onset of a coronal hole fast winds. This could allow for some brief glimpses from the far north of Scotland, and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see a slight enhancement during the southern hemisphere Thursday night due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some glimpses from far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Storms from day 3 (01 Apr). Chance of Moderate class flares throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Low with only Common class flares. There are nine sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The most significant region, located in the southeast, is a moderately large bipolar region but has lost some of its magnetic complexity. In the north-centre disc, there is a moderately large and elongated bipolar region.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind measured at L1 by ACE remained at Background around 350km/s. Winds increased to Slightly Elevated from 29/1130UTC as Earth connected to a coronal hole fast wind with winds peaking at 473 km/s at 29/1824UTC. The IMF was mostly Weak, 5-8nT, until becoming Moderate after 29/0630UTC. The north-south component, Bz, was Weak and predominantly southward. It became Moderate from 29/1413UTC and mainly northward. Geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3) but with two Active intervals (Kp4) between 29/0300-0600UTC and 29/1500-1800UTC, as observed by the British Geological Survey.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is likely to be mostly Low, but with an ongoing Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) feature in the current forecast. The forecast period should start Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of Active intervals initially associated with the coronal hole fast wind. Activity is expected to increase on connection the next coronal hole fast wind with a chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals from late day 3 (01 Apr) into day 4 (02 Apr).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected given the relative lack of significant regions and activity on the disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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