Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Early onset of coronal hole fast winds may cause an enhancement to the auroral oval on Monday 23 Feb UTC nights, with sightings possible across northern Scotland and similar latitudes. Thereafter aurora is expected to return to background levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Early onset of coronal hole fast winds may cause an enhancement to the auroral oval on Monday 23 Feb (UTC nights), with sightings possible across parts of southern New Zealand and similar latitudes. However, visibility is likely to be limited due to the short hours of darkness at this time of year. Thereafter, aurora is expected to return to background levels.
Issued at:
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1 Minor Storms likely on Day 1 (23 Feb), with a chance of G2 Moderate storm intervals.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Low, with only common class flares observed. The visible solar disk is spotless for the first time since the 8th June 2022. A CME (coronal mass ejection) seen off the SE of the solar disc at 22/1530 UTC has been assessed as passing behind Earths orbit.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the onset of further coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were strong, averaging between 600 and 700km/s, but did peak at 750km/s at 23/0737 UTC. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was initially moderate, but fell to weak levels from 22/1635 UTC. The north-south component was variable, but did favour a southwards direction during the second half of this period. Geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4), with G1/Minor Geomagnetic storm (Kp5) intervals observed at 22/2100-0000 UTC and 23/0600-0900 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is forecast through the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds are currently strong due to an earlier than expected connection to a large coronal hole in the west of the disc. Speeds may increase slightly further during Day 1 (23 Feb), before gradually declining from Day 2 (24 Feb), potentially returning to slightly elevated levels by Days 3-4 (25-26 Feb).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Unsettled to G1/Minor storm (Kp 3-5) levels through Day 1 (23 Feb), with a chance of isolated G2/Moderate storms (Kp 6). Conditions should then weaken back to mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions (Kp2-3) by Days 3 and 4 (25-26 Feb).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at Background.
Issued at:
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: