Space Weather Forecast Headline: Generally quiet Space Weather conditions initially. Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storming on Day 1, reducing after this.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, peaking with a C1.6 at 23/1131 UTC from a sunspot region in the north-west. 

There are currently eight sunspot regions on the visible disc. A region in the southwest of the disc, has recently faded to plage. The most active region of the disc is the area in the northwest, where there are 3 sunspot regions close together, which is where most of the recent flare activity has been. An area in the southeast has decreased in size, with the leading sunspot losing it's penumbra.  The region in the northeast has shown some growth with an increased number of trailing sunspots, but remains simple. The remaining regions are small and magnetically simple. 

There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind observations, as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1, suggest that we may be seeing indications that the high speed stream of a coronal hole will arrive soon. Solar wind speeds were slow-ambient, starting the period around 280km/s, increasing to 310km/s from around 23/2043 UTC. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was consistently Weak, but slowly rose through the day, becoming Moderate from around 23/1703 UTC. The north-south component, Bz, has been generally Weak and positive for much of the day, becoming Moderate around 23/1705 UTC, and briefly becoming Weakly negative between 23/2027-23/2224 UTC. It is currently Weakly positive. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2) throughout. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at normal background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be Low or Very Low, with a Chance of becoming Moderate should any isolated Moderate-class flares occur.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections currently feature in the forecast period.

Solar winds are expected to be largely Slow-Ambient at first, until the next enhancement from a coronal hole arrives on Day 1 (24 Sep). This could result in Elevated solar winds of around 500km/s, similar to the previous rotation. Solar winds should slowly decline from Day 2 (25 Sep).

Geomagnetic activity will likely start as Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) until connection to CH96/+ late on Day 1 (24 Sep). Once in the high speed stream Active intervals (Kp 4) are likely, with a chance of G1/Minor storms (Kp 5) and a slight chance of G2/Moderate storm (Kp 6) intervals. This is most likely Day 1 (24 Sep) , though a chance of isolated G1/Minor storms may continue into Day 3 (25 Sep), but reduces further after this.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.