Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Active to Minor geomagnetic storm on Days 1-2 (11-12 Aug).  

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is currently Low with one Common-class flare on 10 Aug.  

There are four small and mostly weak sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The region responsible for the one common class flare has now rotated off the visible disk.  All other areas are weak and generally stable, however, a new region has just rotated onto the east limb, this will be monitored as it moves more into view.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:  Solar winds, as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1, were Slightly Elevated at 400-450 km/s, before easing to Background around 350km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, is generally Weak. The north-south component, Bz, has largely been Weak and Positive. Geomagnetic activity has been Quiet (Kp 0-2) throughout.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at Background.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is expected throughout, with a chance of further C-class flares. A slightly larger, uni-polar region has appeared on the eastern limb, this will be monitored as it rotates further onto the visible disk, however, this is likely to be a mature and relatively inactive region and not expected to significantly change solar activity.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A Coronal Mass Ejection, from the north-centre disc filament eruption on 08 Aug, will probably pass north of Earth either late day 1 or early day 2 (11-12 Aug), and brings a chance of glancing impacts.

Solar winds are currently at background levels with mainly Quiet geomagnetic activity. These conditions are likely to persist until at least late day 1 or into day 2 (11-12 Aug), when the onset of any fast wind associated with a small coronal hole is expected. This is low confidence due its small size, lack of support in persistence, and minimal appearance in MOSWOC Enlil. However, any enhancement could combine with the potential weak glancing blow Coronal Mass Ejection arrival. These two potential events give a chance for enhanced geomagnetic activity with a spell of Unsettled to Active and possible G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm intervals from late day 1 and into early day 2 (11-12 Aug), and a perhaps even a slight chance of G2/Moderate storms given that there is possible Coronal Mass Ejection material from the filament eruption which tends to enhance activity.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to continue at Background.