Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Only minor enhancements to the auroral oval are expected at first. A stronger enhancement is probable late 01 August or early 02 August (UTC) due to a Coronal Mass Ejection arrival from the 30 July Coronal Mass Ejection. Aurora may be visible across Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes, where cloud breaks allow, but viewings likely hampered by shorter hours of darkness.
Southern Hemisphere
Only minor enhancements to the auroral oval are expected at first. A stronger enhancement is probable late 01 August or early 02 August (UTC) due to a Coronal Mass Ejection arrival from the 30 July Coronal Mass Ejection. Aurora may be visible across southern New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes, where cloud breaks allow.
Issued at: 09:09 (GMT) on Sat 1 Aug 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. Likelihood of Minor-Moderate geomagnetic storms early Day 2 (02 Aug). Chance of Minor Radiation Storm Day 1 (01 Aug).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low in the last 24 hours. There are six sunspot regions on the visible disc. A region near centre disc has some minor magnetic complexity, although this is fading. A region in the northeast consists of a large lead spot, with weak magnetic complexity. It is very close to another region which has been growing. The remaining areas are either stable or small and magnetically simple.
The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from 30 Jul has been analysed, with a glancing arrival likely early Day 2 (02 Aug). No further new CMEs have been observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind observations were slow. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak with the north-south component varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) reached above the Minor Radiation Storm level fora spell early in the period, but is now below that threshold level.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate solar activity is expected to continue, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun on 30 Jul is likely to reach Earth late on Day 1 or early on Day 2 (01-02 Aug). The impact at Earth is most likely to be from the edge of the CME, but there is a slight risk of seeing some of the main bulk of the material at Earth.
Quiet geomagnetic activity at first. From late Day 1 or early Day 2, the next CME arrival brings a likelihood of G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Storms, with a slight chance of G3/Strong Storm intervals should the main bulk of the CME reach Earth. Activity then declining again later in the period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently below S1/Minor radiation storm levels and is expected to continue a gradual but erratic downward trend through Days 1-2 (01-02 Aug).
Issued at: 12:16 (GMT) on Sat 1 Aug 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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