Space Weather Forecast Headline:  Chance of G1/Minor storm, Day 2 (11 Sep).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity was at Low levels, with occasional Common-class flares observed. 

There are currently up to eight sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. Most regions remain relatively simple, unipolar groups. The exception is a small bipolar region in the north centre disc. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been seen in available imagery in the last 24 hours.

A CME was observed departing the Sun at approximately 09/0900 UTC and, while the results of its analysis are still pending, it is not expected to be Earth-directed.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds reflected the ongoing influence of the magnetic cloud associated with one or possibly two CME arrivals. Wind speeds were slightly elevated at around 400 km/s; however, from approximately 09/0410 UTC, they increased modestly, peaking near 460 km/s. This enhancement is most likely associated with the arrival of a weak CME. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was generally weak, but strengthen following the arrival of the weak CME, briefly reaching moderate levels. The important north-south component varied weakly but was often southward directed. Geomagnetic activity remained Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 2-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation was at normal background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to remain Low to Very Low, although there is a slight chance of isolated M-class flaring.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Earth continues to experience the influence of a magnetic cloud associated with one or possibly two weak CMEs, with solar wind speeds currently around 460 km/s. 

A coronal hole, CH92/+, may bring a high-speed stream, potentially driving solar wind speeds back above 500 km/s late on Day 2 and into Day 3 (11-12 Sep). However, this feature is not recurrent, resulting in low confidence in both the timing of arrival and the magnitude of any associated solar wind enhancement.

As a result, geomagnetic activity is expected to remain predominantly Quiet to Unsettled, with a slight chance of isolated Active intervals through Day 1 (10 Sep). Activity is then expected to increase late on Day 2 (11 Sep) as the CH92/+ high-speed stream begins to influence Earth, bringing a chance of Active to G1 (Minor Storm) conditions from late 11 Sep into 12 Sep. Thereafter, activity is expected to gradually subside, with predominantly Quiet to Unsettled conditions likely on Day 4 (13 Sep).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is now at background, with a very slight chance of further enhancements above the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold.