Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Aurora may be visible from the northern Scottish islands and other similar latitudes initially where skies clear. Aurora is then forecast to return to background levels until possibly Tuesday night when Earth connects to a coronal hole fast wind. This could allow aurora to reach the northern reaches of Scotland and similar latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Aurora activity is then forecast to be at background levels until possibly Wednesday night when Earth connects to a coronal hole fast wind. This could allow aurora to reach the far south of Tasmania, New Zealand and similar latitudes where clear skies allow. Sightings may be limited however by the short hours of darkness at this time of year.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Ongoing Chance of isolated M-class flares likely slowly reducing.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low. There are currently ten numbered and one unnumbered sunspot regions. They have limited growth or significant magnetic complexity over the period.
No significant Earth-directed CMEs were observed in this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a continued fast wind influence. Wind speeds were mostly Elevated, between 500km/s and 550km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak. The important north-south component, Bz, was Weak and variable. Geomagnetic conditions were Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4), with a G1/Minor Storm interval observed at 24/0000-0300 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was below the Minor level radiation storm level and on a very gradual declining trend.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with a slowly declining Chance of isolated Moderate flares and a persistent very Slight Chance of isolated Strong solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No significant Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) currently feature in the forecast.
A filament eruption which occurred on the morning of the 22 January near the centre disc is expected to miss Earth. There is a Slight Chance of a very weak glance from the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) later Day 1 (25 Jan), but this is low confidence. From late Day 3 into Day 4 (27-28 Jan) there is the increasing chance of some influence from the fast wind associated with a coronal hole, winds perhaps rising back to Elevated levels.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) initially on Day 1 (24 Jan), with geomagnetic activity falling mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) but with a chance of Active (Kp 4) intervals associated with glancing CME influence or the fast wind enhancement.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is now below the S1/Minor radiation storm level, with a decreasing Slight Chance of reaching S1/Minor Storm levels through the period.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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