Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain quiet through the period with low geomagnetic activity.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain quiet through the period with low geomagnetic activity.
Issued at: 04:56 (GMT) on Wed 5 Aug 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low in the last 24 hours, with only a C1.2 flare at 04/1158 UTC.
There are now six regions on the visible disc since a sunspot region has recently rotated round the western limb. The largest sunspot region is in the north-west area of the disc, and comprises a moderately large leader with a clustering of peripheral minor spots to the south and east. It has recently reduced in complexity. A new sunspot region in the north-east of the disc has recently rotated on the to the disc from the eastern limb. The remaining regions are relatively simple, small and possibly on a slight decline.
Two slow Coronal Mass Ejections were detected on 03 Aug, associated with filament eruptions, though after analysis both are expected to miss Earth. Another two Coronal Mass Ejections were detected on 04 Aug, although there has been some difficulty analysing them due to lack of imagery. It is possible that these could give a glancing blow to Earth late morning (UTC) on Day 4 (08 Aug), which could enhance geomagnetic activity. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with regards the likelihood and timing of this.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds were background to slightly elevated at 350-450 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was generally Moderate, though it did reduce to Weak from 04/0900 UTC. The north-south component, Bz, was initially negative (southward), but then largely became neutral or positive (northward) from around 04/1000 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10MeV) proton flux was background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low solar activity is expected to continue with a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: In the absence of any geoeffective coronal holes or Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections, solar wind speeds are expected to reduce to Background on Day 1 (05 Aug), though Enlil suggests they could increase to Slightly Elevated on Day 4 (08 Aug) due to a possible glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejections . Geomagnetic activity is likely to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3), although there is a small chance it could increase on Day 4 (08 Aug) due to a possible glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection or connection to Coronal Hole. This is very low confidence.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to continue at Background.
Issued at: 00:20 (GMT) on Wed 5 Aug 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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