Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 to start and end forecast period.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity remains Low. The peak X-ray flare was an isolated low-end common-class at 10/1316UTC from a now-departed sunspot region which (then) lay on the far west of the Sun.

There currently up to three regions on the Earth-facing side of the Sun, with two other minor regions fading in the period. All the current regions are relatively stable and simple magnetically.

No Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were visible in available satellite imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds mostly showed a slow regime, with the solar wind speed gradually falling from slightly elevated early highs to reach background conditions. This trend was interrupted by a discontinuity in the solar wind traces at 11/1034UTC - this may be the inbound glancing 08 August CME (at least the shock) - although this has so far been very modest, with speeds returning to early-period highs.

The number of particles in the solar wind and their associated magnetic field were both near background at first, rising slightly after the possible CME onset. The net result of the above solar wind measures was nevertheless for provisionally quiet geomagnetic activity throughout.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is expected to remain low, with few regions on the Earth-facing side of the Sun, no departures and limited arrivals.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME from 08 August may give glancing impacts and a Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 inside the coming 24 hours - this may be in course at the time of writing. The chances of higher tier activity (e.g. Moderate Geomagnetic Storm G2) now appear lower based on current evidence, but the CME may still be added to by minor coronal hole fast wind influence over the same period. The duration of the event has been brought forward, with less of a 'tail' of storm risk into day 2.

Geomagnetic activity should now have largely waned by the UTC day of Thursday 13 August, before a possible second fast wind develops from a second coronal hole to deliver a similar chance of G1 on the final day of the period - Friday 14 August. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected in the period, with very little by way of sunspot regions in evidence to cause them.