Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storms expected with onset of fast winds from CH36/-, most likely day 2 (02 Apr). Active >2MeV electron fluence following by end of day 4 (04 Apr).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Low with only small Common-class flares observed. There are nine regions on the Earth-facing disc. The region in the southeast remains the most likely flare source, with the deceptively simple appearing bipolar sunspot still maintaining some complexity with its magnetic field in the area above the spot (in the solar corona). The main sunspot growth was observed in two of the smaller and simpler regions in the north-centre and the northwest. Further growth and complexification of these regions is possible.

No clear Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed, however there are two potential eruptions that remain under assessment for any Earth-directed component.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The anticipated CME associated with the Strong (X-class) flare on 30 Mar, gave a small enhancement at 01/1130 UTC, likely from the tail edge of the CME with the bulk missing Earth and passing earlier. Solar wind speeds were Slightly Elevated to Background, at around 350-420 km/s for much of the period, but rose to be near or at Elevated at 450-500km/s with the CME arrival. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength was Weak but jumped to Moderate and briefly Strong after the CME arrival. However, the north-south component remained weak and variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at background levels with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Most likely Low. There is chance of rising to Moderate, with isolated Moderate class flares, and a slight chance of rising to High with a further isolated Strong (X-class) flare from the sunspot region in the southeast.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing glancing CME influence is expected at first, as Earth-moves through the recently arrived tail of the glancing CME. The strength of any influence is low confidence, however Unsettled to G1 Minor Storm intervals are possible. This is expected to be followed, either late day 1 (01 Apr) or more likely day 2 (02 Apr) by the onset of the fast winds from a coronal hole.  A strong connection is expected with solar winds likely exceeding 600km/s, bringing a period of Active to G1 Minor Storms and a chance of G2 Moderate storms. This activity easing later day 3 and day 4, to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled with Active intervals.   

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) is expected to remain at Background with no solar radiation storms occurring, but with a slight chance of rising in response to any notable solar flares that occur.