Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Active to Minor geomagnetic storm on Days 2-3 (11-12 Aug).  

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is currently Low with occasional Common-class flares on 09 Aug.  The peak was a C1.8 flare at 09/1640 UTC. 

There are four small and mostly weak sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The most notable active region is in the far northwest.  This is just approaching the western limb and so is getting difficult to analyse but it has had some recent flare activity.  In the south central region of the disc  there is a region that has shown a little growth, with an increased number of peripheral spots. All other areas are weak and generally stable.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:  Solar winds, as measured at L1 by SOLAR-1, have generally been Slightly Elevated at 400-450 km/s, peaking at 473 km/s at 09/2135 UTC. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, is generally Weak. The north-south component, Bz, has largely been Weak and Positive. Geomagnetic activity has been Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) throughout.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux was at Background.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is expected throughout, with further Common-class flares likely to continue until the sunspot region in the far north-west rotates across the western limb. Solar orbiter is indicating a slightly larger, uni-polar region that will move onto the western limb during day 1 (10 Aug), however this is likely to be a mature and relatively inactive region and not expected to significantly change solar activity.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A Coronal Mass Ejection, from the north-centre disc filament eruption on 08 Aug, will probably pass north of Earth either late day 2 or early day 3 (11-12 Aug), and brings a chance of glancing impacts.

Solar winds are currently at slightly-elevated levels with mainly Quiet geomagnetic activity. These conditions are likely to persist until at least late day 2 or into day 3 (11-12 Aug), when the onset of any fast wind associated with a small coronal hole is expected. This is low confidence due its small size, lack of support in persistence, and minimal appearance in MOSWOC Enlil. However, any enhancement could combine with the potential weak glancing blow Coronal Mass Ejection arrival. These two potential events give a chance for enhanced geomagnetic activity with a spell of Unsettled to Active and possible G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm intervals from late day 2 and into early day 3 (11-12 Aug), and a perhaps even a slight chance of G2/Moderate storms given that there is possible Coronal Mass Ejection material from the filament eruption which tends to enhance activity.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 >10MeV proton flux is expected to continue at Background.