Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of further Minor Geomagnetic Storms (G1) and Minor Radio Blackouts (R1) to round out UTC working week.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity remained low, peaking with an isolated and impulsive Common-class x-ray flare from the largest region on the facing side of the Sun, observed at 23/0327UTC.

There are up to six sunspot regions at present, with a small new region developing in the east, and with a larger magnetically unipolar region near the solar equator and eastern solar horizon. The region responsible for the peak flare in the western solar hemisphere remains the largest region, but with slight consolidation evident. The strongest growth was seen in a region in the southeast, meanwhile, with numerous small spots developing behind a main complex spot. The remaining groups were largely unchanged.

A large 'prominence eruption' (arc of plasma) was seen to lift off from the far northeast of the Sun around 23/1700UTC, apparently from the far-side. This has yet to appear in all satellite imagery, but an Earth-bound component is not anticipated, even if the far-sided assessment proves incorrect (when triangulating satellite imagery becomes available). There were no Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) visible in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a developing connection to a fast wind, most likely emanating from a large 'coronal hole' on the southwest of the Sun. 

The solar wind speed rose from Slightly Elevated to Strong levels. The number of particles in the solar wind was above average at first but fell with time. The associated magnetic field was above average at peak, and although this waned later in the period, it also became more reliably anti-aligned (with Earth's field) into the UTC evening to give peak geomagnetic activity for the period.

The net result of the above solar wind measures was for provisionally initially quiet, but rising to Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 into the UTC evening. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: There is a daily chance of isolated Moderate-class activity, most probably from the largest sunspot region, or perhaps now a growing region in the southeast given recent trends. No significant regions are due to arrive in the period, with just one minor departure of the UTC weekend, giving a relatively flat trend.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There is one potentially Earth-directed CME in the forecast, that from the northwest limb on 21 July. This may glance Earth early on Day 1 (24 July) UTC, although there are no obvious signs that this is imminent.

The current fast wind is expected to be sustained to end the current UTC working week, with a chance of further G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storms at first, perhaps accentuated by any glancing CME influence to give an outside Slight Chance of G2 (Moderate), before soon abating into the UTC weekend to leave a slow regime and the most reliably Quiet geomagnetic conditions by the following working week.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a daily Slight Chance of S1 Minor Solar Radiation Storm S1 or greater - should any notable flares occur, most likely from the western solar hemisphere.