Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Significant auroral enhancements are unlikely during the forecast period, with visibility of the aurora likely to remain largely restricted to high latitudes. There is an expectation of the onset of faster solar winds, either late 16 November (UTC) or 17 November. This could allow for aurora to become visible from northern parts of Scotland and similar latitudes for a short period of time before subsiding.
Southern Hemisphere
Significant auroral enhancements are unlikely during the forecast period, with visibility of the aurora likely to remain largely restricted to high latitudes. There is an expectation of the onset of faster solar winds, either late 16 November (UTC) or 17 November. This could allow for aurora to become visible from far southern parts of New Zealand and similar latitudes for a short period of time before subsiding.
Issued at: 06:24 (GMT) on Sun 15 Nov 2026
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low over the past 24 hours with only occasional Common-class flares observed, There are currently eight sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest sunspot lies in the far northeast, presenting as a large, mature region. The remaining sunspots on the facing-disc are small and magnetically simple, with a handful undergoing some slight growth during the period.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds were between background and Slightly Elevated levels. Solar winds were mainly between 350-400km/s until the arrival of a weak enhancement around 14/1130 UTC to increase speeds to around 430km/s. Following this a slow decline in speeds was observed. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak, with the north-south component varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be mostly at Low levels, but with a chance of Moderate activity should any isolated Moderate-class flares occur.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Solar winds have now eased to near background levels with no significant enhancements expected until late Day 2 or Day 3 (16 or 17 Nov), when fast winds from a recurrent coronal hole are likely to connect with Earth resulting in an increase to Slightly Elevated or Elevated levels.
Quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions are expected until connection with fast winds from the anticipated coronal hole, either late Day 2 (16 Nov) or most likely on Day 3 (17 Nov). Following this Unsettled to isolated Active intervals (Kp3-4) are likely to occur, with a slight chance of peak G1/Kp5 activity occurring between Days 2 and 4 (16-18 Nov).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation storms are not expected.
Issued at: 01:24 (GMT) on Sun 15 Nov 2026
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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