Space Weather Forecast Headline: 

Chance of Moderate solar activity. Chance of G1 Day 2-3 (09-10 Jul). Decreasing slight chance of S1/Minor radiation storms.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate over the past 24 hours, with a single, impulsive Moderate flare observed from a large and complex region in the southeast quadrant. 

There are five sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. The largest and most magnetically complex region is located in the southeast. It is dominated by a large leading spot, followed by two smaller trailing spots, the rearmost of which may exhibit a delta configuration. The remaining regions are relatively small and magnetically simple. However, the region near the south-central disc has recently developed numerous small spots, some of which are beginning to develop rudimentary penumbrae.

A CME was observed in association with the Moderate flare recently observed. Satellite imagery is currently unavailable for further analysis; however, the event is not expected to be Earth-directed based on the available observations.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated a return to slow conditions. Solar wind speeds were mostly at the bottom end of Slightly Elevated levels (400-450 km/s), on a slight declining trend. The number of particles the solar wind is made of was below Average. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, and so was the important North-South component. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was near background levels. 

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected to continue with a chance of further M-class flares, most likely from AR4482.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs feature in the forecast period. The only significant feature during the forecast period is CH73/-. This recurrent coronal hole is expected to connect with Earth by around Day 2 (09 July), perhaps with an early connection possible late Day 1 (08 Jul), with speeds up to 600 km/s.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0–3) Day 1 (08 July). Activity is then expected to increase on Day 3 (09 July), becoming Unsettled to Active, with a chance of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm intervals, before activity begins to decline again through Day 3 & 4 (10-11 July). 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained below the S1/Minor radiation storm level. There is a slight chance of proton flux exceeding the S1 (Minor) radiation storm threshold due to the presence of large regions near the western limb, the risk declining progressively.