Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
06:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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14:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
90%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
60%
|
30%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
10
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
ESE
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
21
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
21
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
24
|
24
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
90%
|
88%
|
87%
|
86%
|
| UV | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
11
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
13
|
E
14
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
17
|
E
18
|
E
18
|
E
19
|
E
20
|
E
21
|
E
22
|
E
22
|
E
22
|
E
21
|
E
21
|
E
21
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
25
|
26
|
28
|
29
|
30
|
31
|
33
|
34
|
36
|
37
|
39
|
40
|
41
|
43
|
42
|
41
|
40
|
38
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
36
|
36
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
87%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
85%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
84%
|
83%
|
79%
|
80%
|
81%
|
82%
|
83%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
85%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
85%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
18
|
E
18
|
E
18
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
13
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
35
|
35
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
32
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
30
|
30
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
25
|
23
|
22
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
85%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
83%
|
82%
|
82%
|
83%
|
83%
|
83%
|
83%
|
83%
|
83%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
85%
|
86%
|
86%
|
87%
|
87%
|
87%
|
88%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
40%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
4°
|
3°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
E
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
E
10
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
18
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
89%
|
90%
|
90%
|
91%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
90%
|
88%
|
87%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
87%
|
88%
|
90%
|
91%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
7°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
SE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
17
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
G
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
93%
|
94%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
93%
|
92%
|
91%
|
89%
|
88%
|
87%
|
87%
|
88%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
6°
|
5°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
7
|
SE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
9
|
ESE
9
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
14
|
15
|
19
|
20
|
19
|
17
|
18
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
91%
|
89%
|
93%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
60%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
9
|
SE
11
|
SE
12
|
ESE
12
|
SE
13
|
SE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
11
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
19
|
22
|
22
|
24
|
25
|
23
|
21
|
20
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
92%
|
92%
|
94%
|
94%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
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Cloudy with rain and sleet, becoming dry later. Breezy.
The day will begin cloudy with outbreaks of rain and sleet. The afternoon will stay cloudy as the rain and sleet clear from the south. Breezy. Maximum temperature 8 °C.
Most of the night will be dry but cloudy with the odd clear spell. The wind will freshen as showers spread west towards the morning. Minimum temperature 3 °C.
Cloudy with showers at first. The showers become frequent with longer spells of rain from the afternoon. Breezy. Maximum temperature 7 °C.
Mostly cloudy with showers or longer periods of rain through Friday to Sunday. It will be drier for a time from Saturday afternoon.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: