Risca (Caerphilly) weather

Headline:

Heavy and persistent rain.

Today:

Heaviest and most persistent rain clearing eastwards through the morning, though remaining cloudy with outbreaks of patchy rain and drizzle throughout the day, turning heavy at times over the hills. Breezy. Maximum temperature 19 °C.

Tonight:

Rain persisting throughout this evening and overnight, this turning heavy at times especially over the hills and mountains. Windy for all, especially along the coasts, and feeling humid. Minimum temperature 8 °C.

Thursday:

A cloudy, damp and mild start to Thursday. Cloud breaking in the east but drizzle persisting over the hills in the west. Staying windy. Maximum temperature 18 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Remaining changeable with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Some brighter periods are also likely, mainly on Friday. Temperatures close to average but turning colder later Sunday. Breezy.

It is likely to be fairly unsettled at first, with areas of rain or showers, most widespread across central, southern and eastern areas, perhaps accompanied by some strong winds. Into next week, a northwest-southeast split is most likely, with some further rain or showers in southern and eastern areas, closest to an area of low pressure, whilst the best chance of longer, drier spells will be towards the north and northwest, where some patchy fog and rural frost are possible. It will also turn colder, as a northerly flow becomes established for a time. Later in the period, more widely drier and settled conditions could develop as high pressure becomes slightly more influential, although probably still with a few coastal showers. Temperatures should gradually return closer to average.

By the beginning of October, confidence is very low in the weather regimes most likely to affect the UK. On balance, slow-moving weather patterns are most likely, with high pressure probably close to the UK at times, at least initially. This should offer some occasional periods of dry weather, but there is always the chance in this type of setup that areas of low pressure nearby could impact parts of the UK, leading to some wetter conditions at times. Temperatures will likely fluctuate either side of, but often close to, average.