Bargoed (Caerphilly) weather

Headline:

Rain for some overnight, largely dry and breezy on Tuesday.

This Evening and Tonight:

Largely dry this evening with some late sunshine in places. Cloud thickening overnight with some rain spreading south. Southern regions may see little if any rain but a chance of heavier bursts in northern counties for a time. Staying mild. Minimum temperature 15 °C.

Tuesday:

A rather cloudy day with the chance of the odd shower. Most places staying dry with periods of hazy sunshine. Breezier and somewhat fresher, but still feeling rather warm. Maximum temperature 23 °C.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Sunny spells and showers, these heaviest and most numerous on Thursday. Hail and thunder possible. Highly variable rainfall amounts with some places staying much drier. Occasionally breezy and feeling fresher.

This period is likely to start largely dry and settled across the UK, as a ridge of high pressure sets in. A few showers are likely in the far north and possibly the far southeast though. Conditions look like turning increasingly unsettled through next week, as low pressure gradually becomes dominant, squeezing the ridge off to the northeast and southwest. Most places are likely to see some rain or showers, which may be heavy with a risk of thunder at times. It may become breezy if not windy at times too. Temperatures are likely to be near or a little below normal overall, with some chilly nights at first, but brief warm, humid spells are possible at times, especially in the south.

As we move into the start of meteorological autumn, signals for the prevailing weather patterns affecting the UK are weak, thus something close to the climatological norm is most likely. This means a broad northwest-southeast split in conditions, with higher pressure becoming centred close to the south of the UK and lower pressure towards the north and northwest. The north and northwest will probably see the lion's share of the rain and any strong winds, whilst the south and southeast will probably see the driest and sunniest weather. Temperatures are likely to be above average overall. There is a chance that late season hot spells or heatwaves develop, especially in the south.