Sugar Loaf (Monmouthshire) weather

Headline:

Often cloudy with patchy rain at times.

Today:

A cloudy, damp and mild start to Thursday. Cloud breaking in the east with some brighter spells, but drizzle persisting over the hills in the west. Staying windy and humid. Maximum temperature 20 °C.

Tonight:

Remaining cloudy in the west overnight with drizzle persisting over hills. Drier in the east with a few clear spells. Windy in the northwest, but winds easing elsewhere by dawn. Minimum temperature 12 °C.

Friday:

Cloudy in the west with rain and drizzle, turning heavy at times over hills and mountains. Some brighter and drier intervals in the east. Winds continue to ease. Feeling humid. Maximum temperature 20 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Remaining changeable with showers or longer spells of rain on Saturday. Turning colder through Sunday as showery rain clears southeast, leaving sunny spells and showers on Monday.

Into next week, a northwest-southeast split is most likely. The best of drier spells will be in the north and northwest where some fog and frost patches are possible, but there will be spells or rain or showers in south and eastern areas, near to an area of low pressure. It will also turn colder, as a northerly flow becomes established for a time. Later in the week, more widely drier and settled conditions could develop as high pressure becomes more influential, although probably still with some coastal showers. Temperatures should gradually return closer to average in this period. Later in the period there may be a return to a more changeable pattern but this is uncertain.

By the beginning of October, confidence is very low in the weather regimes most likely to affect the UK. On balance, there will likely be a transition from slow-moving weather patterns to a more changeable period at some stage although the timing on this is highly uncertain. High pressure probably close to the UK, which would offer some occasional periods of dry weather, will likely give way to a more unsettled period with some short lived dry interludes during this time. Temperatures will likely fluctuate either side of, but often close to, average.