Majority of this period comes with lower than average confidence, even accounting for the long range. This is due to large uncertainties surrounding the behaviour of ex-hurricane Erin at the beginning of the forecast and its subsequent impact on the large scale weather pattern over the UK. Probably beginning fine for the vast majority of areas, but a band of rain, already in or threatening the west, is likely to move slowly east, perhaps preceded by showers in the south. More changeable weather is likely thereafter, possibly even at times unsettled, with more in the way of rain, showers and stronger winds than recently. Starting off warm, especially in the south and east, but temperatures are likely to dip nearer to average for most of the rest of the period.