Caldicot (Monmouthshire) weather

Headline:

Unsettled, with heavy rain and strong winds.

Today:

A dull and damp day as a band of rain pushes eastwards, bringing widespread and prolonged heavy downpours, accompanied by strong winds and potentially coastal gales. Travel disruption and localised flooding possible. Conditions worst felt in the south and west. Maximum temperature 10 °C.

Tonight:

Remaining unsettled this evening, with further heavy downpours. However, turning drier through the early hours as rain clears to the east. Feeling milder than the previous night. Often breezy. Minimum temperature 6 °C.

Thursday:

A cloudy but drier start, though quickly turning unsettled as the next band of heavy and disruptive rain pushes northeastwards through the day. However, brighter spells possible through the afternoon. Maximum temperature 12 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Friday brings a brighter day with winds easing, though the odd shower remains possible. Unsettled again thereafter, as further bands of rain with strengthening winds move in from the west.

Unsettled conditions are likely to continue at first, with low pressure probably centred somewhere to the southwest of the UK, whilst high pressure tries to nose in from the east across northern areas. This means a broadly easterly flow becoming established, whilst periods of rain or showers becoming increasingly confined to southern or southwestern parts. With time, high pressure is signalled to become rather more dominant with more in the way dry, settled weather anticipated. With this, temperatures will probably lower a little compared to recent weeks, closer to or perhaps a little below average for some. Overnight frost and fog or freezing fog could become more widespread, though any particularly cold conditions look unlikely at this stage.

High pressure is fairly likely to be close by to the UK at the start of this period, though its exact position is rather more uncertain. This means a continuation of predominantly settled and dry weather for many, albeit with the potential for overnight frost and fog. With colder air likely near to or over the UK, the chance of wintry hazards is higher than in previous weeks. Towards mid-month, there is the potential for rather more changeable conditions to become re-established, although confidence in this aspect of the forecast is currently low.