Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
06:00
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10:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
20%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
6
|
SE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
ENE
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
14
|
14
|
16
|
19
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
25
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
25
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
98%
|
97%
|
96%
|
94%
|
92%
|
87%
|
85%
|
81%
|
78%
|
77%
|
81%
|
84%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
84%
|
| UV | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
50%
|
60%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
E
9
|
ESE
10
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
25
|
26
|
26
|
26
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
23
|
22
|
21
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
20
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
84%
|
85%
|
86%
|
88%
|
88%
|
91%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
92%
|
93%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
60%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
SE
6
|
S
6
|
SSW
6
|
SSW
7
|
SSW
7
|
SSW
7
|
SSW
7
|
SSW
6
|
S
6
|
S
7
|
S
7
|
S
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
19
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
15
|
14
|
15
|
17
|
15
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
16
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
G
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
95%
|
94%
|
93%
|
92%
|
91%
|
90%
|
90%
|
91%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
94%
|
93%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
7
|
S
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
S
8
|
S
9
|
S
9
|
S
9
|
S
10
|
S
9
|
S
9
|
S
8
|
S
7
|
S
7
|
S
7
|
S
7
|
S
6
|
S
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
16
|
17
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
13
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
20
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
94%
|
91%
|
87%
|
86%
|
85%
|
83%
|
84%
|
86%
|
89%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
10°
|
10°
|
11°
|
11°
|
11°
|
10°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
S
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
S
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
5
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
5
|
SE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
7
|
S
7
|
S
7
|
S
7
|
S
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
14
|
13
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
11
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
97%
|
95%
|
92%
|
90%
|
86%
|
84%
|
81%
|
83%
|
84%
|
89%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
8°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
5
|
ESE
5
|
ESE
5
|
ESE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
ESE
6
|
SE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
11
|
10
|
12
|
16
|
17
|
15
|
12
|
12
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
97%
|
98%
|
96%
|
88%
|
83%
|
91%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
8
|
SSE
10
|
SSE
10
|
SSE
9
|
S
9
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
14
|
17
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
91%
|
89%
|
93%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
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Rain clearing, drier and eventually brighter Wednesday.
Mainly dry, with any remaining rain and low cloud gradually dispersing to leave a mainly fine afternoon with some sunny intervals. Feeling cooler in exposure to the easterly wind. Maximum temperature 11 °C.
Dry start, before becoming overcast with a band of rain and drizzle bringing low cloud across the region by the morning. Winds light and variable but breezy along the coast. Minimum temperature 6 °C.
Further periods of rain and drizzle making gradual and erratic progress northwards in this period, with low cloud and fog patches. Maximum temperature 10 °C.
Further periods of rain making gradual and erratic progress northwards in this period. Temperatures near normal, with fog patches. Breezy along the coast.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: