Ellen's Green (Surrey) weather

Headline:

Rather cold, cloudy and breezy, with rain edging northeast Tuesday.

This Evening and Tonight:

Rather cloudy and breezy during the evening, with an increasing chance of some rain making inroads from the southwest later in the night, perhaps locally heavy in some southern coastal districts by dawn. Local slight frost possible inland. Minimum temperature 2 °C.

Tuesday:

Rather cloudy and wet, with a band of rain making very slow and erratic progress northwards over the course of the day, punctuated by some heavier and more showery bursts. Maximum temperature 8 °C.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Staying rather cloudy with further periods of breezier and wetter weather edging northeast, especially Friday. Temperatures near normal, but with overnight frost probably limited given the unsettled conditions.

Frontal systems over the Atlantic, steered by a south-shifted jet stream, are likely to approach the UK at times, but tending to stall as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the north and northeast. This will result in further spells of rain at times, falling in areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, some snow will be possible in northern England and Scotland, mainly over higher ground, as they encounter colder air. A subtle shift southwards of these areas of low pressure is anticipated during the second week of February, which may allow a greater chance of colder air to spread across larger parts of the UK at times, including the south, bringing an increased risk of wintry hazards.

Whilst confidence is inevitably low through this period, a south-shifted jet stream is likely to persist for much of the time, steering areas of low pressure towards and south of the UK. This is likely to bring further spells of wet and windy weather, with rain most frequent in the south and west, and perhaps also eastern Scotland, with the driest conditions, relative to normal, in northwest Scotland. Some hill snow will be possible at times as the wet weather encounters colder air across northern parts of the UK. There is a hint that storm systems may start to track a little further north by March though. Temperatures overall will likely be close to average for most parts, but perhaps a little below in the northeast at first.