Stokenchurch (Buckinghamshire) weather

Headline:

Turning wet and breezier overnight. Cloudy, breezy Wednesday, rain easing.

This Evening and Tonight:

Some clear spells initially but cloud building from the west through the evening with rain arriving in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Winds easing for a time but becoming breezy again by dawn. Minimum temperature 11 °C.

Wednesday:

Unsettled with cloud and some heavy rain at first, the rain becoming lighter and more intermittent by afternoon with some drier interludes developing later. Breezy. Maximum temperature 20 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Drier Thursday and Friday, and becoming warm to very warm in brighter spells. Brisk winds easing. Rain or showers likely developing during Saturday, perhaps turning thundery later.

It is likely to be fairly unsettled at first, with areas of rain or showers, most widespread across central, southern and eastern areas, perhaps accompanied by some strong winds. Into next week, a northwest-southeast split is most likely, with some further rain or showers in southern and eastern areas, closest to an area of low pressure, whilst the best chance of longer, drier spells will be towards the north and northwest, where some patchy fog and rural frost are possible. It will also turn colder, as a northerly flow becomes established for a time. Later in the period, more widely drier and settled conditions could develop as high pressure becomes slightly more influential, although probably still with a few coastal showers. Temperatures should gradually return closer to average.

By the beginning of October, confidence is very low in the weather regimes most likely to affect the UK. On balance, slow-moving weather patterns are most likely, with high pressure probably close to the UK at times, at least initially. This should offer some occasional periods of dry weather, but there is always the chance in this type of setup that areas of low pressure nearby could impact parts of the UK, leading to some wetter conditions at times. Temperatures will likely fluctuate either side of, but often close to, average.