Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | |||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
50%
|
60%
|
80%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
14
|
ENE
13
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
6
|
NE
6
|
NE
5
|
ENE
4
|
ENE
3
|
E
3
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
25
|
23
|
21
|
19
|
17
|
15
|
13
|
12
|
10
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
| UV | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
|
10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
60%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
3
|
ESE
3
|
ESE
4
|
ESE
4
|
ESE
4
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
8
|
SE
9
|
SE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
12
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
13
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
7
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
12
|
13
|
15
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
20
|
24
|
26
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
97%
|
94%
|
92%
|
86%
|
84%
|
79%
|
81%
|
84%
|
88%
|
89%
|
88%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
87%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
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13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
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16:00
|
17:00
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18:00
|
19:00
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20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
10%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
60%
|
70%
|
80%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
13
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
15
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
26
|
28
|
27
|
28
|
28
|
29
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
29
|
29
|
28
|
27
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
23
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
24
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
87%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
87%
|
89%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
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17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
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20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
ENE
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
10
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
24
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
25
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
94%
|
95%
|
94%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
10°
|
10°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
14
|
14
|
16
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
95%
|
92%
|
92%
|
90%
|
88%
|
88%
|
90%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
10°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
7°
|
8°
|
6°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
ESE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
8
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
14
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
14
|
14
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
91%
|
87%
|
92%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
8°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
6°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
7
|
SE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
7
|
E
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
15
|
13
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
94%
|
89%
|
85%
|
91%
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95%
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| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
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Cloudy with rain and drizzle, perhaps heavy at times.
Cloudy and wet, with rain and drizzle likely turning heavier for a time late morning and early afternoon, most likely in the west. These clearing north later with English Channel coasts potentially turning drier. Early brisk winds also easing. Maximum temperature 6 °C.
Rain and cloud clearing north through the evening, with most parts drier with some clearer spells by midnight. Mist and fog patches are then likely to develop by dawn. Minimum temperature 2 °C.
Early fog patches clearing through the morning with cloud also breaking. Staying largely dry with bright or sunny intervals. Temperatures becoming milder, however winds also strengthening again later. Maximum temperature 10 °C.
Mainly cloudy, with spells of rain and drizzle. These most likely later Thursday and early Friday, and Saturday. Breezy at times. Rather cold Thursday and Friday, perhaps less cold Saturday.
Updated:
Frontal systems over the Atlantic, steered by a south-shifted jet stream, are likely to approach the UK at times, but tending to stall as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the north and northeast. This will result in further spells of rain at times, falling in areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, some snow will be possible in northern England and Scotland, mainly over higher ground, as they encounter colder air. A subtle shift southwards of these areas of low pressure is anticipated during the second week of February, which may allow a greater chance of colder air to spread across larger parts of the UK at times, including the south, bringing an increased risk of wintry hazards.
Updated:
Whilst confidence is inevitably low through this period, a south-shifted jet stream is likely to persist for much of the time, steering areas of low pressure towards and south of the UK. This is likely to bring further spells of wet and windy weather, with rain most frequent in the south and west, and perhaps also eastern Scotland, with the driest conditions, relative to normal, in northwest Scotland. Some hill snow will be possible at times as the wet weather encounters colder air across northern parts of the UK. There is a hint that storm systems may start to track a little further north by March though. Temperatures overall will likely be close to average for most parts, but perhaps a little below in the northeast at first.
Updated: