Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
70%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
11
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
9
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
NE
7
|
NE
6
|
NE
6
|
NE
4
|
NE
3
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
19
|
18
|
16
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
10
|
10
|
8
|
6
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
87%
|
89%
|
91%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
96%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
| UV | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
90%
|
70%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
20%
|
10%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
8°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
NE
2
|
SSW
2
|
SSW
3
|
S
3
|
S
4
|
SSE
4
|
SSE
4
|
SE
4
|
SE
5
|
SE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
10
|
E
11
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
13
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
6
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
14
|
15
|
17
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
17
|
18
|
21
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
25
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
99%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
96%
|
93%
|
88%
|
86%
|
86%
|
87%
|
91%
|
92%
|
93%
|
92%
|
92%
|
91%
|
91%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
|
03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
13
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
16
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
26
|
27
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
29
|
29
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
25
|
24
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
89%
|
88%
|
87%
|
87%
|
86%
|
86%
|
88%
|
90%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
8
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
E
6
|
E
6
|
E
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
24
|
24
|
25
|
24
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
15
|
15
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
11
|
12
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
5
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
8
|
SE
9
|
SE
10
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
ESE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
12
|
12
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
18
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
96%
|
95%
|
93%
|
92%
|
91%
|
90%
|
90%
|
91%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
6°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
13
|
14
|
16
|
16
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
92%
|
89%
|
95%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
6°
|
5°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
9
|
E
9
|
E
8
|
E
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
14
|
15
|
18
|
17
|
15
|
14
|
14
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
91%
|
89%
|
93%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Wittering weather map
View the weather with our interactive map
Cloudy with rain and drizzle spreading north.
Cloudy and rather windy start, but most parts dry to start. However, rain and drizzle will soon move into southern areas, turning persistent for many, before spreading north through the morning and early afternoon. Winds also easing for a time. Maximum temperature 5 °C.
Cloudy, with rain and drizzle, mainly light, during the evening. Turning drier after midnight with rain easing away north and clear spells developing, but also some mist and fog patches. Minimum temperature 3 °C.
Early fog patches clearing through the morning with cloud also breaking. Staying largely dry with bright or sunny intervals. Rather misty at times along northern coasts. Winds also strengthening. Maximum temperature 9 °C.
Mainly cloudy, with spells of rain and drizzle. These most likely on Friday and Saturday. Breezy at times. Rather cold Thursday and Friday, perhaps less cold Saturday.
Updated:
Frontal systems over the Atlantic, steered by a south-shifted jet stream, are likely to approach the UK at times, but tending to stall as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the north and northeast. This will result in further spells of rain at times, falling in areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, some snow will be possible in northern England and Scotland, mainly over higher ground, as they encounter colder air. A subtle shift southwards of these areas of low pressure is anticipated during the second week of February, which may allow a greater chance of colder air to spread across larger parts of the UK at times, including the south, bringing an increased risk of wintry hazards.
Updated:
Whilst confidence is inevitably low through this period, a south-shifted jet stream is likely to persist for much of the time, steering areas of low pressure towards and south of the UK. This is likely to bring further spells of wet and windy weather, with rain most frequent in the south and west, and perhaps also eastern Scotland, with the driest conditions, relative to normal, in northwest Scotland. Some hill snow will be possible at times as the wet weather encounters colder air across northern parts of the UK. There is a hint that storm systems may start to track a little further north by March though. Temperatures overall will likely be close to average for most parts, but perhaps a little below in the northeast at first.
Updated: