Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
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01:00
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11:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
90%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-5°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-8°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
24
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
22
|
E
20
|
E
18
|
E
16
|
E
15
|
E
14
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
SE
16
|
SE
16
|
SE
17
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
25
|
25
|
26
|
26
|
26
|
26
|
26
|
26
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
26
|
24
|
22
|
21
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
17
|
17
|
18
|
18
|
20
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-8°
|
-8°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
17
|
ESE
17
|
ESE
17
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
20
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
22
|
E
22
|
E
23
|
E
23
|
E
23
|
E
23
|
E
26
|
E
26
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
27
|
E
27
|
E
27
|
E
27
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
24
|
25
|
26
|
27
|
27
|
28
|
29
|
30
|
29
|
30
|
31
|
31
|
32
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
35
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
32
|
32
|
| Visibility (description) |
VP
|
P
|
VP
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
100%
|
100%
|
99%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
24
|
E
24
|
E
24
|
E
23
|
E
22
|
E
22
|
E
21
|
E
21
|
E
22
|
E
22
|
E
21
|
E
21
|
E
22
|
E
22
|
E
22
|
E
22
|
E
21
|
ENE
20
|
ENE
19
|
ENE
19
|
ENE
19
|
ENE
18
|
ENE
18
|
E
18
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
32
|
31
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
25
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
92%
|
93%
|
92%
|
93%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-10°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
16
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
E
16
|
ENE
17
|
E
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
18
|
ENE
17
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
22
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
98%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
17
|
E
17
|
ENE
17
|
E
17
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
16
|
ESE
17
|
ESE
17
|
ESE
17
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
E
16
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
18
|
E
18
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
19
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
20
|
21
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
18
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
98%
|
99%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
17
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
15
|
E
14
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
19
|
17
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
93%
|
93%
|
97%
|
98%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-8°
|
-8°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
12
|
E
12
|
E
14
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
17
|
E
15
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
15
|
16
|
18
|
20
|
22
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
96%
|
93%
|
93%
|
96%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Carn A' Chlamain weather map
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Cloudy with rain, sleet and hill snow Wednesday. Drier later.
Showery outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow through the evening, this will then become more persistent again overnight. Strong easterly winds, especially around the coast. Minimum temperature 0 °C.
Cold with showers or longer spells of rain, sleet and snow at first. Snow becomes increasingly confined to the hills by midday. Drier spells in the afternoon. Windy at times. Maximum temperature 6 °C.
Cold and cloudy with further showers or longer spells of rain, sleet and snow. Windy at times.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: