Carn A' Mhaim (Aberdeenshire) weather

Headline:

Windy with rain this morning. Dry and bright afternoon.

Today:

Cloudy with heavy rain spreading eastwards and clearing through the morning. This leaves a largely dry afternoon with long sunny spells developing. Fresh to strong winds will ease through the day. Maximum temperature 18 °C.

Tonight:

A dry evening with lengthy clear spells for most places. Remaining dry through the rest of the night with lighter winds, but still rather breezy on coasts. Minimum temperature 6 °C.

Thursday:

A dry day with lengthy sunny spells, especially across northern and eastern Aberdeenshire. More in the way of cloud for Upper Deeside but still remaining dry. Maximum temperature 16 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Rather changeable with showers or longer spells of rain on Friday, but generally drier on the weekend with bright spells.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.