Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
90%
|
80%
|
70%
|
80%
|
90%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-6°
|
-6°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-16°
|
-16°
|
-15°
|
-15°
|
-15°
|
-14°
|
-14°
|
-14°
|
-14°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-11°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
34
|
SE
33
|
SE
33
|
SE
31
|
SE
30
|
SE
27
|
SE
26
|
SE
24
|
ESE
24
|
SE
22
|
SE
20
|
SE
22
|
SSE
23
|
SSE
25
|
SSE
25
|
SSE
26
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
38
|
36
|
36
|
35
|
33
|
30
|
29
|
27
|
26
|
24
|
22
|
24
|
25
|
27
|
28
|
28
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
P
|
VP
|
| Humidity |
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
| UV | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-14°
|
-14°
|
-14°
|
-15°
|
-15°
|
-15°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
26
|
SE
27
|
SE
27
|
SE
28
|
SE
29
|
SE
30
|
SE
30
|
SE
30
|
SE
29
|
ESE
29
|
ESE
30
|
ESE
31
|
ESE
32
|
ESE
32
|
ESE
32
|
ESE
31
|
ESE
32
|
ESE
32
|
ESE
32
|
ESE
33
|
ESE
34
|
ESE
33
|
ESE
33
|
ESE
33
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
29
|
30
|
30
|
31
|
32
|
33
|
33
|
33
|
32
|
32
|
33
|
34
|
35
|
35
|
35
|
34
|
35
|
35
|
36
|
36
|
37
|
37
|
36
|
36
|
| Visibility (description) |
VP
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
80%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-16°
|
-15°
|
-15°
|
-15°
|
-15°
|
-14°
|
-14°
|
-14°
|
-14°
|
-14°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
32
|
E
31
|
E
31
|
E
31
|
E
31
|
E
31
|
E
30
|
E
30
|
E
29
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
27
|
E
26
|
E
25
|
E
25
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
25
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
35
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
32
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
30
|
29
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-12°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-11°
|
-12°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
25
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
24
|
SE
24
|
SE
25
|
SE
25
|
SE
26
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
28
|
28
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
26
|
26
|
27
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
25
|
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
SE
24
|
SE
24
|
SE
23
|
SE
23
|
SE
22
|
SE
21
|
SE
22
|
SE
22
|
SE
21
|
SE
21
|
SE
20
|
SE
19
|
SE
22
|
SE
21
|
SE
21
|
SE
20
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
29
|
29
|
29
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
29
|
29
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
20
|
21
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-3°
|
-3°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-8°
|
-9°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
19
|
SE
16
|
SE
14
|
SSE
12
|
SSE
12
|
SE
14
|
SSE
12
|
SSE
13
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
21
|
18
|
14
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
12
|
14
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
93%
|
93%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-3°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-9°
|
-9°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
12
|
SSE
10
|
SSE
12
|
SSE
13
|
SSE
18
|
SSE
22
|
SE
19
|
SE
18
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
14
|
16
|
21
|
23
|
25
|
19
|
19
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
98%
|
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
92%
|
93%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Leabaidh An Daimh Bhuidhe weather map
View the weather with our interactive map
Cloudy with rain, sleet and snow. Windy coasts.
The day will stay cloudy with rain, sleet and snow. The snow will become increasingly confined to high ground during the afternoon. It will be windy along the coasts. Maximum temperature 5 °C.
Rain, sleet and hill snow will continue overnight, this mainly away from the coasts. The snow will begin falling to lower levels later. Minimum temperature 1 °C.
Further rain, sleet and snow away from the east coast with the snow falling to low levels. Windy. Maximum temperature 4 °C.
Cloudy, with rain, sleet and hill snow continuing for much of the time Friday to Sunday when it will stay breezy.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: