Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | |||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
E
8
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
26
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
25
|
24
|
25
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
| Humidity |
93%
|
92%
|
89%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
96%
|
97%
|
| UV | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
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05:00
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06:00
|
07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
E
9
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
9
|
SE
11
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
24
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
26
|
26
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
25
|
25
|
24
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
27
|
29
|
30
|
29
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
M
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
96%
|
95%
|
94%
|
93%
|
92%
|
92%
|
94%
|
94%
|
96%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
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09:00
|
10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
11
|
SE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
10
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
30
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
30
|
30
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
33
|
32
|
32
|
31
|
32
|
32
|
31
|
31
|
30
|
29
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
90%
|
91%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
90%
|
90%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
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11:00
|
12:00
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13:00
|
14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
8
|
E
9
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
29
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
90%
|
89%
|
91%
|
91%
|
90%
|
91%
|
91%
|
90%
|
91%
|
91%
|
90%
|
89%
|
89%
|
89%
|
89%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
24
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
24
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
94%
|
93%
|
93%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
8
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
SE
10
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
20
|
19
|
19
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
95%
|
95%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
60%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
20
|
19
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
18
|
16
|
16
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
95%
|
95%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Torphins weather map
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Cloudy and cold with sleet and hill snow
It will be another cloudy day but feeling colder than Monday, with outbreaks of rain increasingly turning to sleet or snow. Occasionally strong easterly winds. Maximum temperature 3 °C.
Showery outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow through the evening will become more persistent again overnight. Strong easterly winds, especially around the coast. Minimum temperature -1 °C.
Cold with showers or longer spells of rain, sleet and snow in the morning. Snow becomes increasingly confined to the hills in the afternoon and evening. Windy at times. Maximum temperature 5 °C.
Cold and cloudy with further showers or longer spells of rain, sleet and snow. Windy at times.
Updated:
Frontal systems over the Atlantic, steered by a south-shifted jet stream, are likely to approach the UK at times, but tending to stall as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the north and northeast. This will result in further spells of rain at times, falling in areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, some snow will be possible in northern England and Scotland, mainly over higher ground, as they encounter colder air. A subtle shift southwards of these areas of low pressure is anticipated during the second week of February, which may allow a greater chance of colder air to spread across larger parts of the UK at times, including the south, bringing an increased risk of wintry hazards.
Updated:
Whilst confidence is inevitably low through this period, a south-shifted jet stream is likely to persist for much of the time, steering areas of low pressure towards and south of the UK. This is likely to bring further spells of wet and windy weather, with rain most frequent in the south and west, and perhaps also eastern Scotland, with the driest conditions, relative to normal, in northwest Scotland. Some hill snow will be possible at times as the wet weather encounters colder air across northern parts of the UK. There is a hint that storm systems may start to track a little further north by March though. Temperatures overall will likely be close to average for most parts, but perhaps a little below in the northeast at first.
Updated: