South West England

Headline:

Cloudy and showery spells to end the week.

Today:

Cloudy with rain and showers during the morning. In the far southwest, some spells of autumn sunshine will break through and showers will keep to coasts, though these may be heavy. Feeling chilly, especially under the cloud further inland. Maximum temperature 11 °C.

Tonight:

Some showers lingering along coastlines, but generally dry. Temperatures will fall to become a cold night, under increasingly clear spells. Areas of fog and patches of frost to develop later. Minimum temperature 4 °C.

Saturday:

Any areas of fog will lift through the morning. From then, a dry but mostly cloudy day is expected, with the occasional break to sunny skies. Another chilly autumn day. Maximum temperature 10 °C.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Foggy in places on Sunday morning which will lift to leave a sunny autumn day. Becoming increasingly cloudy on Monday ahead of evening rain. Milder, wetter and windier on Tuesday.

High pressure begins to migrate away to the east allowing frontal systems to progress into the UK from the southwest, although exactly how much progress into the UK this makes is uncertain. However there is a greater chance that at least the southern half of the UK will see a change to milder and wetter conditions, at least for a time, while the north is more likely to remain drier. Toward the end of next week we may start to see some colder conditions spread from the north. While the nature of this colder outbreak is very uncertain, it could bring some wintry showers to the northern UK briefly. Thereafter, a transition towards a westerly flow is likely, bringing changeable conditions with rain more likely focused towards the north west.

During the second half of November, there is an increasing chance of changeable or more unsettled conditions developing, with spells of rain and the potential for strong winds at times. The extent and location of the wettest and windiest weather is very uncertain at this range, with northern and western areas generally most favoured, but there is a chance the wettest conditions could become more focussed across southern parts for a time. Towards the end of November, whilst confidence is very low in the overall weather patterns, there may be a tendency for the tracks of Atlantic lows to shift farther south. Temperatures are likely to be near or above average for much of the period, although colder interludes remain possible, perhaps more especially later in the period.