Predicting the weather in detail more than 7 days ahead is difficult.
That’s because even very small changes in the atmosphere today can have a big impact several days later.
As we look further ahead, these small differences grow. This makes precise forecasts much harder to produce.
As a result, forecast certainty naturally decreases over time.
So while we can still give a sense of likely weather patterns, our confidence in local detail decreases beyond the first week.
What we’re doing instead
Our aim is to help you plan ahead, while being open and honest about uncertainty.
So for days 8 to 14, we show:
- a daily outlook for rain, wind, and temperature based on our best understanding at the time - this may change as we get closer to the date
- a range of possible outcomes showing best and worst‑case scenarios
- a certainty level so you can see how confident we are in the forecast for each day
Check the forecast closer to the time for the most accurate details.
How we make 14 day forecasts
Our scientists run and compare many different weather models to explore a wide range of possible outcomes.
Expert meteorologists then assess these results to identify the most likely weather, using their experience and understanding of how the atmosphere behaves.
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