Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long-range forecast
Wednesday 15 Apr - Friday 24 Apr
Changeable at the start of this period with low pressure to the west or northwest of the UK. This will bring showers or longer spells of rain at times, heaviest and most persistent in the northwest together with some strong winds. The southeast is likely to be driest and brightest. Later, conditions may become drier and more settled, especially in the north, but parts of the south may still see some showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures will likely be near to or slightly above average.
Saturday 25 Apr - Saturday 9 May
The dominant pattern during this period is most likely to be high pressure to the north and lower pressure to the south. This will probably lead to the driest, most settled weather in the north of the UK, with the south more unsettled and wetter. Temperatures will probably close to or slightly above normal overall.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).