Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Sunday 7 Sep - Tuesday 16 Sep
Much of this period will be unsettled, with low pressure systems tending to dominate the overall pattern. This will mean showers or longer spells of rain will affect much of the UK at times. Some heavy rain or showers are expected in places, most often in the west and north. Thunderstorms and hail are also possible, as are some spells of strong winds, especially if any deep areas of low pressure form in the vicinity of the UK. Later in the period, there may be some longer spells of drier weather that develop, with more in the way of sunshine due to higher pressure. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly below overall, but may rise above at times in any drier, sunnier spells.
Wednesday 17 Sep - Wednesday 1 Oct
Low pressure may dominate for much of this period, bringing largely unsettled weather conditions with showers or some longer spells of rain at times. Some windy weather is also possible at times, especially if any deep lows form in the vicinity of the UK. There are likely to be some drier, more settled interludes though, particularly at the start of the period. Temperatures are likely to be close to or a little above average overall.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).