Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Friday 11 Jul - Sunday 20 Jul
Many parts of the UK are expected to be part way through a period of high temperatures and humidity at the start of this period. The duration, geographical extent and intensity of the heat are all rather uncertain at present, but there is the potential for some very hot weather to be realised, especially across some inland southern and eastern areas. With this also comes the possibility of thunderstorms, in part because of the high temperatures, but also in association with any frontal systems moving in from the west, which would ultimately usher in cooler and fresher conditions. Towards the latter part of the period, northwestern areas stand a greater chance of experiencing rather more changeable conditions, with drier and occasionally hotter spells more likely further southeast.
Monday 21 Jul - Monday 4 Aug
A continuation of the broad themes from earlier in the month at first, with high pressure probably dominating the south and lower pressure more favoured to affect the north and northwest. Temperatures are likely to end up above average overall with a continued, and perhaps higher than normal, chance of occasional hot spells or heatwaves, especially further to the southeast. However, by the turn of the month, there is a signal for perhaps more widely unsettled weather to develop, though the details of this remain rather uncertain.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).