Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Sunday 14 Dec - Tuesday 23 Dec
A continuation of a similar pattern to that seen through early December is anticipated, especially at first, as frontal systems from the Atlantic spread into and across the UK, interspersed with some temporary drier interludes. These will bring spells of rain, which may be heavy at times leading to the risk of some impacts given how wet it has been lately, especially in the west. In addition, there is also potential for some periods of strong winds at times too. Whilst it will often be mild, later in the period there may be a slight downward trend in temperature, especially across northern parts of the UK, and the chance of drier spells increases. There may also be a slightly higher chance of some wintry hazards at times in the north.
Wednesday 24 Dec - Wednesday 7 Jan
Changeable conditions are likely to give way to slower moving weather patterns through this period, however the detail remains highly elusive. This means that whilst outbreaks of rain and showers remains probable at times there will also be drier interludes, which may be more prolonged than of late. Some spells of strong winds are possible but in the drier periods frost and fog becomes likely. On balance temperatures will likely be near normal with any snowfall most likely in the north over higher ground.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).