Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Wednesday 21 May - Friday 30 May
A generally dry and fine end to the working week with light winds and warm sunshine continuing across the United Kingdom. A few showers are possible, but the majority of places will be dry. Temperatures during this time are likely to continue to be above normal for the time of year. Into the bank holiday weekend and following week, a change in weather type is expected. More unsettled conditions are likely to develop, with weather systems moving in from the Atlantic. This will bring spells of rain to many areas, perhaps heavy at times, with a risk of strong winds in places. Drier and brighter intervals are likely between systems. Temperatures will probably be near normal or slightly above.
Saturday 31 May - Saturday 14 Jun
Changeable weather conditions are expected as we head into June. Spells of wet weather with showers or longer spells of rain are likely to be interspersed with drier, sunnier periods. Overall, it will likely be wetter in the west and drier in the east. Temperatures will probably average out around normal, although some very warm or even hot spells are still possible, as normal for the time of year.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).