Long range forecast
Friday 14 Aug - Sunday 23 Aug
Something of a north to south split to start the period. Some rain or showers are likely in the north whilst it will be predominantly dry, sunny and hot in the south. The heat in the south will likely ease into next weekend but probably remain a little above average. Further into August, there are signs that low pressure systems with spells or rain or thundery interludes will interrupt the more settled conditions at times, but rainfall amounts will probably be variable, with some areas continuing to see relatively little. Temperatures are likely to remain above average, with a chance of occasional returns of the hot conditions seen earlier in the period.
Monday 24 Aug - Monday 7 Sep
The broad theme of high pressure remaining in place at least close to the UK seems most probable, but with occasional more unsettled or changeable interludes. These interludes will either be the result of Atlantic frontal systems moving east or thundery plumes possibly drifting north from the continent. The broadly settled conditions mean that rainfall amounts overall are more likely to be below normal than above. Temperatures will probably be above average and some spells of hot weather and heatwaves are possible, especially in the south.
Why isn't there more detail in the long-range forecast?
Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).