Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Tuesday 22 Apr - Thursday 1 May
Many areas probably starting this period on a rather showery note, with central and southern parts of the UK more likely to see the heaviest and most frequent showers. These will likely be quite slow-moving with the chance of thunder in places. With time, high pressure is expected to become more dominant across the UK, but the shower risk may persist, more likely further to the south, at least towards the end of April. Given often light winds and for some, a fair amount of sunshine, it should feel pleasantly warm by day, though areas subject to onshore winds and perhaps also most cloud, especially North Sea coasts, may remain somewhat cooler. Some chilly nights remain likely, especially where skies are clear.
Friday 2 May - Friday 16 May
Early May will probably see a good deal of settled weather with high pressure patterns most likely to dominate. There are signs that towards mid May, pressure may fall in the vicinity of the UK, bringing an increased chance of rain or showers. Throughout this period, temperatures are expected to be near to a little above average, though some day to day and regional variability is to be anticipated.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).