Long range forecast
Friday 28 Aug - Sunday 6 Sep
A relatively unsettled start to this period, as showers or longer spells of rain are possible across many parts of the UK, along with some strong winds. Some heavy bursts and thunderstorms are likely at times. It will likely remain changeable into early September, with rainfall amounts probably above average for the time year and the potential for some more strong winds at times. However, some drier, more settled interludes could develop at times. Temperatures are likely to be near average, although some short-lived warm or hot spells are possible, especially in the south.
Monday 7 Sep - Monday 21 Sep
Most likely a continuation of the generally unsettled conditions at first with showers or longer spells of rain across many areas, perhaps heavy and thundery in places. However, there may still be some drier interludes at times. Further into September, drier weather may become more prevalent, especially in the south and southeast, with any more unsettled conditions tending to become more likely further north and northwest. Temperatures will probably be near normal at first but may become warmer later, with the possibility of some hot spells in the south.
Why isn't there more detail in the long-range forecast?
Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).