Long range forecast
Tuesday 13 Oct - Thursday 22 Oct
Remaining changeable through the middle of October, as a series of low pressure systems run across the North Atlantic, often to the north and northwest of the UK, bringing occasional bands of rain and strong winds, but interspersed with brighter and more showery conditions. Rain will be most prevalent across hills in the west and especially northwest, where above average rainfall is likely through this period. Longer drier interludes are more favoured in sheltered southern and eastern parts, but even here it is likely to be wetter than during recent weeks. Whilst brief cooler interludes are possible, temperatures are likely to be a little above average in many areas for the period as a whole, potentially quite warm in parts of the southeast early in the period.
Friday 23 Oct - Friday 6 Nov
The remainder of October and into early November will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall, with areas of low pressure often passing close to the UK from the North Atlantic, interspersed by occasional ridges of high pressure. As such, showers or longer spells of rain are likely at times, with the wettest and windiest weather typically in the west and northwest, driest conditions more favoured in sheltered southern and eastern parts, and perhaps more widely initially. A trend to more widely unsettled conditions is possible into November. Whilst some occasional colder interludes will be possible at times, temperatures are likely to be near or a little above average for the period as a whole.
Why isn't there more detail in the long-range forecast?
Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).