Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Wednesday 23 Jul - Friday 1 Aug
Overall a rather more changeable pattern of weather through this period, compared to much of the summer thus far. Wednesday will likely see a continuation of heavy, perhaps thundery showers, although the focus may be more across the north and east by this stage. Thereafter, a general westerly or north-westerly regime looks to become established, with occasional weather systems moving in from the Atlantic. This means further rain or showers and breezy conditions at times, especially in the northwest. This will be interspersed with some drier, sunnier periods. Temperatures are expected to be close to or a little above average for most of the period. This broad pattern is likely to continue through to the end of July.
Saturday 2 Aug - Saturday 16 Aug
The rather changeable pattern will likely continue through into the start of August with spells of rain or showers mixed in with some drier, brighter days. However there are signs that high pressure may become rather more dominant, which could bring more in the way dry, settled weather more widely as we progress further into the month. Temperatures will likely continue to be above average overall, with the possibility of very warm or hot spells developing period, especially further south and east.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).