Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long-range forecast
Sunday 15 Feb - Tuesday 24 Feb
Showers or longer spells of rain are expected as Atlantic low pressure systems dominate in the vicinity of the UK. Some heavy rain is likely in places, probably focussed on western hills, with some snow at times in the north, mainly on high ground. Strong winds are possible at times, especially around coasts. Temperatures will probably be near normal. Later in the period, there is a chance that drier, more settled conditions may begin to develop.
Wednesday 25 Feb - Wednesday 11 Mar
Low confidence in the dominant weather patterns during this period. There are signals for both changeable, unsettled conditions, bringing a risk of some heavy rain, and also periods of drier, more settled weather, which may mean colder conditions. The latter, more settled pattern is looking slightly more probable at this stage.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).