Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long-range forecast
Tuesday 31 Mar - Thursday 9 Apr
High pressure to the southwest of the UK, with weather fronts rounding the high to affect northern parts at times, is likely the dominant patter through this period. Wetter and windier weather can be expected in the north, while further south, drier and more settled conditions are more likely. There is a chance of deeper lows moving across the UK at times, bringing wetter and windier weather more widely. Later in the period, high pressure may spread across much of the UK leading to more widespread settled conditions. Whilst temperatures will be generally near to or a little above average, some colder interludes are possible, especially in the north, where there could be some wintry showers at times.
Friday 10 Apr - Friday 24 Apr
High pressure will likely be dominant at the start of this period. As such, plenty of dry weather seems most likely, although changes in wind direction could lead to quite marked differences in cloud amounts and temperature from day to day. There may however be some wetter and windier interludes at times, these being more likely in the north. There is a chance that high pressure becomes less dominant later into April, increasing the probability of more places seeing some rain and possible stronger winds from time to time. Overall, temperatures will likely be near to or a little above average.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).