Long range forecast
Saturday 30 May - Monday 8 Jun
The south of the UK is expected to be mainly fine and dry for the start of this period, with temperatures above normal. It will be cloudier in the north with some rain at times, this heavy in places. Moving further into the period, conditions will likely become unsettled across the UK as a whole. Atlantic weather systems will move in from the west bringing showers or longer spells of rain at times. The rain will likely be heaviest in parts of the west and northwest. Temperatures will probably be near normal overall.
Tuesday 9 Jun - Tuesday 23 Jun
Probably changeable or unsettled at first with Atlantic frontal systems bringing showers or longer spells of rain at times. From mid-month, high pressure may begin to become more dominant with conditions becoming dry and more settled, although some showery interludes are still possible. Temperatures are expected to be near normal at first, but probably rising above average later.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).