Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Monday 16 Jun - Wednesday 25 Jun
On Monday, cloudy with spells of rain still holding on across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Further south, high pressure to the southwest of the UK will extend northeastwards, bringing settled and fair weather mainly across England and Wales. Cloud and rain will eventually ease across western Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the weather should turn drier and brighter across eastern Scotland where sheltered by high ground. From mid week, high pressure is signalled to dominate much of the UK, bringing dry and fine weather, and feeling warm in the sunshine with light winds for most. Any early morning mist or fog will be quick to clear, and daytime temperature will likely trend around or above normal for the time of year.
Thursday 26 Jun - Thursday 10 Jul
Following high pressure brining mainly dry and warm weather across the UK, the weather during late June and early July is expected to turn more changeable, with spells of rain or showers probable for all parts at times. Rain or showers could be heavy and thundery, which is normal for the time of year. Temperatures are likely to be above average overall, more likely early in the period, as is the chance of any very warm or hot spells.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).