Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long-range forecast
Wednesday 31 Dec - Friday 9 Jan
High pressure is likely to be centred to the west or northwest over the North Atlantic through this period with low pressure to the east. Slowly evolving weather patterns are therefore most probable through this time. However, around the turn of the year, an area of low pressure may move through the North Sea bringing a period of wetter and windier weather, especially to the north. With cold air close to the UK, some wintry hazards are possible in places. Into January more settled conditions with colder and drier than average conditions are most probable. There will however be some periods of rain or showers and windier spells. Temperatures will probably be below average for this period overall and so wintry hazards remain a possibility in places.
Saturday 10 Jan - Saturday 24 Jan
Whilst confidence in details is low, high pressure will probably remain close to the UK initially, leading to slowly evolving weather patterns. Periods of relatively settled weather interspersed with more changeable interludes are likely, as are some spells of showers, especially around coastal areas. Temperatures will likely recover a little to be near to or slightly below average during this time, but an enhanced risk of wintry hazards affecting some parts at times remains. Later in the period, a transition to more widely changeable or unsettled conditions is possible, with a corresponding shift to near or slightly above average temperatures.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).