Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Thursday 30 Oct - Saturday 8 Nov
An unsettled start to this period is expected across the UK. An area of low pressure is expected to lie close by, bringing outbreaks of rain to many areas. The rain may be heavy and prolonged in places, and accompanied by some strong winds. Western areas of the UK will probably see the highest rainfall totals. Thereafter, low pressure systems are likely to dominate the weather across the UK into November. This will mean changeable and at times unsettled weather, with a risk of heavy rain and strong winds in places. Some drier and brighter interludes are possible between systems. Temperatures are likely to be around normal or slightly above for the time of year.
Saturday 8 Nov - Saturday 22 Nov
Unsettled conditions are most likely through to the middle of November with showers or longer spells of rain across all areas at times along with spells of strong winds. Temperatures through this period are overall likely to be around or above average with any colder spells short-lived between weather systems. From mid-November, while there is an increased chance of more settled spells, the likelihood of whether settled or unsettled conditions are more prevalent are reasonably balanced.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).