Long range forecast
Saturday 16 May - Monday 25 May
Changeable and at times rather unsettled conditions look to dominate through the middle part of May, with low pressure often close by. This means periods of rain or showers, some of which could be heavy, for many places, though some drier interludes are also expected. Initially temperatures likely cooler than average, but tending to recover, perhaps becoming rather warm by the end of the period as it tends to become more settled, especially in the south.
Tuesday 26 May - Tuesday 9 Jun
Patterns which bring more settled weather are more likely to dominate towards the end of May. Whilst further rain and showers are possible at times, there is likely to be longer spells of fine and dry weather. Temperatures are most likely to recover close to average, perhaps becoming warm at times. Into June, more mixed conditions are likely with spells of rain and showers, but also some drier weather at times.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).