Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long-range forecast
Monday 19 Jan - Wednesday 28 Jan
Throughout this period, the UK will see a battle between Atlantic weather systems attempting to arrive from the west while high pressure and colder conditions attempt to exert some influence from the east. Initially, milder Atlantic air is expected to dominate. This should maintain changeable conditions with showers or longer spells of rain for most. The wettest weather in western parts of the country, drier in the east. Temperatures overall likely to be around average. Later in the period, there is an increased chance that conditions will turn colder. This aspect of the forecast is still somewhat uncertain but the potential transition to colder weather also increases the chance of snow across parts of the country.
Thursday 29 Jan - Thursday 12 Feb
Initially, slowly evolving weather patterns are most likely in the vicinity of the UK, with low pressure typically to the west or southwest and high pressure to the northeast. This configuration brings an increased chance of cold conditions affecting parts of the UK, and the associated risk of wintry hazards at times. Deeper into February, and whilst confidence is naturally low, there may be a transition to more widely unsettled conditions and perhaps a corresponding recovery in temperature back closer to average.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).