Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Saturday 12 Jul - Monday 21 Jul
Settled at first, with very warm or hot weather quite widely across the UK. There is a small chance of a few thunderstorms, but most areas will likely be dry. Early next week, a transition to less hot conditions is expected, but with uncertain timing. This could bring an increasing chance of some rain or showers, perhaps thundery, but there is scope for very warm or hot conditions to persist in more eastern and southern areas. Beyond midweek, a rather changeable pattern is anticipated with some rain or showers possible at times, which could be heavy and thundery, but interspersed with drier interludes. Whilst a downward trend in temperature is anticipated, it will still likely be warmer than average, especially in the south and east where hot spells remain possible.
Tuesday 22 Jul - Tuesday 5 Aug
A continuation of the broad themes from earlier in the month at first, with high pressure probably dominating the south and lower pressure more favoured to affect the north and northwest. Temperatures are likely to end up above average overall with a continued, and perhaps higher than normal, chance of occasional hot spells or heatwaves, especially further to the southeast. However, around the turn of the month, there is a signal for perhaps more widely unsettled weather to develop, though the details of this remain rather uncertain.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).