Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Friday 2 May - Sunday 11 May
Following a widely fine and very warm spell through the week, temperatures are most likely to return back closer to average from the north during Friday. Whilst a little rain is possible during this transition, most areas remaining largely dry. Largely fine but cooler conditions are then most likely over the weekend. However, likely cloudier and breezier at times across some northern areas with a chance of rain. Into the following week, conditions will probably turn more changeable overall, with dry, settled periods interspersed with some spells of wetter weather. This will bring some showers or longer spells of rain at times, which could be heavy and thundery in places. Temperatures will likely be around average.
Monday 12 May - Monday 26 May
Fairly typical spring weather is expected during this part of May. Periods of fine and dry weather are likely to be interspersed with spells of wetter, more unsettled weather, with a risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms in places. Temperatures will most likely be near or slightly above average overall.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).