Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long-range forecast
Sunday 11 Jan - Tuesday 20 Jan
A change in weather patterns is likely at the start of this period. Milder air is expected to start to arrive from the west during Sunday as a band of rain arrives. Depending on how quickly the band moves eastwards, this could lead to another spell of snow across northern and eastern areas. A change to milder, albeit unsettled conditions, is then most likely into the following week, probably persisting for the remainder of the period. All areas will see showers or longer spells of rain at times though still with some drier interludes. Potentially windy at times too. Whilst this transition is most likely occur, very cold is expected to remain close to the east of the UK with a small chance of it returning.
Wednesday 21 Jan - Wednesday 4 Feb
The outlook through the latter part of January and into the start of February is typically uncertain. A broadly southwesterly regime is marginally favoured bringing changeable conditions. Spells of wet, windy and mild weather are likely. Some colder, drier interludes with overnight frost and fog are possible. As during mid-January, while milder conditions are marginally favoured, there remains a chance of further cold spells extending across the country.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).