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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Yellow warning

Yellow weather warning in force for the UK

Sunday 20 Jul - Tuesday 29 Jul

Overall a rather more changeable pattern of weather through this period, compared to much of the summer thus far. The first couple of days could well be particularly unsettled with heavy rain and/or thunderstorms in many areas. Into the following week, a general westerly type set-up looks to become established, with occasional weather systems moving in from the Atlantic. This means further rain or showers and breezy conditions at times, interspersed with some drier, sunnier periods. Temperatures are expected to average out above normal and whilst brief hotter and humid days are possible, the chance of prolonged heat is lower than during the last few weeks. This broad pattern is likely to continue towards the end of July.

Wednesday 30 Jul - Wednesday 13 Aug

The end of July and first part of August will probably see a continuation of similar weather to the previous week or so - this being generally rather changeable with spells of rain or showers mixed in with some drier, brighter days. Towards mid-August, there are tentative signs that high pressure may become rather more dominant, which would bring more in the way dry, settled weather more widely. Temperatures are expected to continue to run above average overall, with a greater likelihood, compared to the preceding couple of weeks, of very warm or hot spells to develop by mid-August, especially further south and east.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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