Downpatrick (County Down) weather

Headline:

Windy, heavy rain Tuesday night. Bright morning Wednesday, showers later.

This Evening and Tonight:

Cloudy with a band of heavy rain spreading east through the evening, accompanied by strong winds and severe coastal gales. Rain clears east overnight, leaving clear skies and easing winds. Minimum temperature 12 °C.

Wednesday:

A dry morning with prolonged sunny spells. A little cloudier in the afternoon with bright or sunny intervals and showers possible. Brisk winds. Maximum temperature 18 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Mostly dry with sunny spells Thursday, cloudier with rain spreading east in the evening. Variable cloud Friday and Saturday with some bright spells between rain or showers. Breezy at times.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.