Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
80%
|
60%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
40%
|
30%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
16
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
| UV | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
30%
|
50%
|
50%
|
30%
|
20%
|
10%
|
20%
|
10%
|
20%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
8
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
11
|
SE
12
|
SE
13
|
SE
13
|
SE
14
|
SE
14
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
14
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
15
|
16
|
17
|
19
|
20
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
23
|
25
|
27
|
29
|
30
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
32
|
31
|
30
|
30
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
93%
|
91%
|
89%
|
86%
|
84%
|
82%
|
81%
|
84%
|
86%
|
86%
|
88%
|
90%
|
90%
|
92%
|
91%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
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6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
13
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
29
|
28
|
26
|
25
|
25
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
24
|
23
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
20
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
96%
|
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
98%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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08:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
10°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
8
|
S
8
|
S
8
|
S
8
|
S
8
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
19
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
17
|
18
|
16
|
17
|
17
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
96%
|
92%
|
90%
|
89%
|
88%
|
88%
|
88%
|
89%
|
92%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
7
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
9
|
SSE
9
|
SSE
9
|
S
9
|
S
9
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
17
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
17
|
17
|
17
|
19
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
21
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
94%
|
91%
|
89%
|
88%
|
86%
|
86%
|
87%
|
88%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
40%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
10°
|
10°
|
8°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
8°
|
6°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
6
|
S
6
|
S
6
|
S
6
|
SSW
10
|
SSW
9
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
8
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
15
|
14
|
13
|
18
|
20
|
19
|
18
|
18
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
95%
|
96%
|
95%
|
87%
|
85%
|
93%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
9
|
SE
10
|
SE
9
|
SE
10
|
SE
11
|
SE
9
|
ESE
7
|
SE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
22
|
21
|
19
|
23
|
22
|
18
|
15
|
14
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
95%
|
92%
|
90%
|
95%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Moretonhampstead weather map
View the weather with our interactive map
Rain clearing northwards. Showers following.
A wet and dull start as rain pushes northwards. Drier, and potentially brighter, spells emerge from the southwest through the afternoon, though accompanied by showers. Breezy initially but winds gradually easing. Rather cold away from the far southwest, where milder. Maximum temperature 10 °C.
Turning murky in places this evening and overnight as low cloud and fog patches form, primarily in the east. Otherwise, a mixture of clear spells and showers. Frost free. Minimum temperature 4 °C.
A few bright spells at times on Wednesday after fog clears but areas of cloud still lingering. Scattered showers, locally heavy and possibly with hail. Milder for all areas. Maximum temperature 10 °C.
Remaining rather dull throughout the week with limited brighter spells, giving a cool feel. Some drier moments but with the ongoing chance for outbreaks of rain. Breezy at times.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
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Whilst confidence is inevitably low through this period, a south-shifted jet stream is likely to persist for much of the time, steering areas of low pressure towards and south of the UK. This is likely to bring further spells of wet and windy weather, with rain most frequent in the south and west, and perhaps also eastern Scotland, with the driest conditions, relative to normal, in northwest Scotland. Some hill snow will be possible at times as the wet weather encounters colder air across northern parts of the UK. There is a hint that storm systems may start to track a little further north by March though. Temperatures overall will likely be close to average for most parts, but perhaps a little below in the northeast at first.
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