Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
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08:00
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11:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
20%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
19
|
19
|
21
|
23
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
25
|
26
|
28
|
30
|
31
|
31
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
99%
|
96%
|
93%
|
92%
|
87%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
86%
|
85%
|
86%
|
87%
|
88%
|
88%
|
| UV | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
40%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
30
|
31
|
31
|
32
|
33
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
31
|
30
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
26
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
26
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
87%
|
86%
|
86%
|
87%
|
88%
|
90%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
95%
|
94%
|
95%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
6
|
ENE
6
|
ENE
6
|
E
6
|
E
5
|
E
5
|
E
4
|
ESE
4
|
ESE
4
|
ESE
4
|
SE
4
|
SE
4
|
SE
4
|
SE
4
|
SE
4
|
SE
4
|
SE
4
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
26
|
27
|
27
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
23
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
19
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
14
|
15
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
94%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
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08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
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11:00
|
12:00
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13:00
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14:00
|
15:00
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16:00
|
17:00
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18:00
|
19:00
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20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
4
|
ESE
4
|
ESE
4
|
ESE
5
|
ESE
5
|
SE
5
|
ESE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
5
|
SSE
5
|
SSE
4
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
SSE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
15
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
18
|
19
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
96%
|
94%
|
93%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
94%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
4
|
SE
4
|
ESE
4
|
SE
4
|
ESE
4
|
ESE
4
|
SE
4
|
SSE
4
|
SSE
4
|
SSE
4
|
S
5
|
S
4
|
S
4
|
S
4
|
S
4
|
S
4
|
SSE
4
|
SSE
3
|
SSE
3
|
SE
3
|
SE
3
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
16
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
95%
|
92%
|
89%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
87%
|
92%
|
95%
|
96%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
8°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
3
|
ESE
3
|
ESE
3
|
E
4
|
ESE
6
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
ESE
5
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
11
|
11
|
11
|
15
|
17
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
G
|
M
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
97%
|
93%
|
91%
|
95%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
4
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
6
|
S
7
|
S
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
16
|
17
|
19
|
20
|
21
|
20
|
22
|
23
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
95%
|
94%
|
96%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Mountain Ash weather map
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A brighter and drier day than recent.
A murky start as low cloud and hill fog lifts through the morning. Brightening up through the afternoon, with some sunny spells possible, though a chance of the odd shower through the day. Becoming breezy along coasts through the afternoon. Maximum temperature 10 °C.
Turning cloudy from the east through the evening with patchy drizzle possible over hills. Overnight, a rain band spreads northwards bringing heavy downpours and strengthening winds. Coastal gales possible. Minimum temperature 5 °C.
A dull and damp start, with widespread cloud and rain across the region through the morning. Heavy showers soon follow, with further rain later. Strong winds ease through the day. Maximum temperature 9 °C.
A rather unsettled end to the week as outbreaks of heavy showers and periods of prolonged rain continue. Though brief brighter spells are possible over the weekend. Breezy at times.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: