Abergavenny Castle (Monmouthshire) weather

Headline:

Mainly cloudy with spells of rain across the mountains.

This Evening and Tonight:

Cloud steadily thickens from the west through this evening, bringing widespread hill cloud and spells of light rain and drizzle across the higher ground. Some further spells of rain possible around the coasts overnight. Mild with winds gradually easing. Minimum temperature 11 °C.

Wednesday:

Cloudy at first but becoming brighter through the day with even a few breaks to sunshine. Feeling warm and humid, with scattered showers spreading from the south by the evening. Maximum temperature 24 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

A mainly cloudy period with spells of rain at times, but some drier interludes as well. Breezy at times, but winds easing by Saturday. Increasingly warm and feeling rather humid.

A low pressure system passes to the northwest of the UK early in the period bringing wetter windier conditions to the northwest. Drier in the southeast at first before the wetter conditions move through the early part of the week. From there further low pressure systems are likely to the northwest of the UK at times, bringing wet and windy conditions to the northwest. Whilst some rain or showers are possible across the south and east, longer drier spells are more likely, under the influence of higher pressure. There is also the chance of some occasional very warm, perhaps locally hot weather, as brief bursts of hotter air encroach from the continent, but probably fairly short-lived and perhaps also accompanied by a few thunderstorms at times.

Conditions will likely continue to be changeable through much of July. The wettest and windiest conditions most likely towards the northwest with a risk of some heavy rain at times, especially over hills. Southern and eastern areas are most favoured for longer drier and more settled spells, although even here some occasional rain or showers will be possible, perhaps thundery. There are signs of more widely settled weather during the second half of July, however this signal is very tentative. Temperatures are expected to be above average for most areas, especially towards the southeast where there will be an ongoing chance of some very warm or hot conditions at times.