Abergavenny Castle (Monmouthshire) weather

Headline:

Remaining changeable with rain tonight.

This Evening and Tonight:

Cloudy this evening then turning increasingly wet and windy overnight with a band of heavy and persistent rain pushing eastwards. Rain most persistent over the mountains, with flooding possible. Mild overnight. Minimum temperature 11 °C.

Wednesday:

Heavy, persistent rain clearing eastwards through the morning, though remaining cloudy with outbreaks of patchy rain and drizzle throughout the day, turning heavy at times over the hills. Breezy. Maximum temperature 18 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Remaining changeable with showers or longer spells of rain at times, though brighter interludes are possible. Often breezy. A little milder and more humid by the end of the week.

It is likely to be fairly unsettled at first, with areas of rain or showers, most widespread across central, southern and eastern areas, perhaps accompanied by some strong winds. Into next week, a northwest-southeast split is most likely, with some further rain or showers in southern and eastern areas, closest to an area of low pressure, whilst the best chance of longer, drier spells will be towards the north and northwest, where some patchy fog and rural frost are possible. It will also turn colder, as a northerly flow becomes established for a time. Later in the period, more widely drier and settled conditions could develop as high pressure becomes slightly more influential, although probably still with a few coastal showers. Temperatures should gradually return closer to average.

By the beginning of October, confidence is very low in the weather regimes most likely to affect the UK. On balance, slow-moving weather patterns are most likely, with high pressure probably close to the UK at times, at least initially. This should offer some occasional periods of dry weather, but there is always the chance in this type of setup that areas of low pressure nearby could impact parts of the UK, leading to some wetter conditions at times. Temperatures will likely fluctuate either side of, but often close to, average.