Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
23:00
|
|---|---|
| Weather symbols | |
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
12
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
| UV | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
40%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
10°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
12
|
12
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
18
|
20
|
22
|
24
|
25
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
23
|
25
|
28
|
28
|
26
|
26
|
28
|
28
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
E
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
90%
|
85%
|
84%
|
77%
|
75%
|
74%
|
75%
|
79%
|
82%
|
83%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
60%
|
70%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
28
|
29
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
22
|
21
|
20
|
19
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
84%
|
85%
|
86%
|
89%
|
91%
|
92%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
E
9
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
19
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
18
|
16
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
96%
|
95%
|
93%
|
92%
|
92%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
8
|
S
8
|
S
8
|
S
8
|
S
8
|
S
7
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
7
|
S
6
|
S
6
|
S
6
|
SSE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
12
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
16
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
16
|
14
|
15
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
93%
|
91%
|
91%
|
89%
|
88%
|
89%
|
91%
|
93%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
8°
|
10°
|
10°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
6°
|
8°
|
9°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SE
6
|
S
7
|
S
7
|
SE
6
|
SE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
14
|
13
|
16
|
17
|
15
|
14
|
15
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
88%
|
83%
|
93%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
10°
|
9°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
8°
|
7°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
9
|
SE
10
|
SE
9
|
SE
8
|
SE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
15
|
16
|
18
|
22
|
22
|
18
|
16
|
15
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
94%
|
88%
|
85%
|
92%
|
94%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Royal Bath & West Showground weather map
View the weather with our interactive map
Rain clearing northwards. Showers following.
Rain continues to clear northeastwards this evening, conditions turning murky thereafter as light winds allow low cloud and fog patches to form in the east. In the west, a mixture of clear spells and showers. Largely frost free. Minimum temperature 3 °C.
A bright and drier day on Wednesday once fog clears, though some cloud will linger. A continuation of scattered showers, these locally heavy and possibly with hail. Feeling milder. Maximum temperature 10 °C.
Remaining rather dull throughout the week with limited brighter spells, giving a cool feel. Some drier moments but with the ongoing chance of rain and showers. Breezy at times.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: