Eskdale Youth Hostel (Cumbria) weather

Headline:

Wet start this morning but turning drier and brighter.

Today:

A wet start this morning, with rain turning heavy at times and accompanied by brisk winds. Rain and winds quickly easing with sunny skies for many by mid-morning. A few showers then developing during the afternoon. Warm in the sunshine. Maximum temperature 21 °C.

Tonight:

A mix of clear spells and a scattering of showers this evening. The showers becoming mainly confined to northern and western areas overnight. A cooler night than last night. Minimum temperature 8 °C.

Thursday:

A largely dry and bright day for many with sunny spells. A few showers will develop, especially near Irish Sea coasts. Temperatures nearer average. Maximum temperature 19 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Rain returns on Friday, potentially heavy for a time. A risk of some further rain on Saturday before turning drier and brighter on Sunday. Temperatures around average for early October.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.