Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
05:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | |||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
90%
|
80%
|
60%
|
20%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-10°
|
-9°
|
-8°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-6°
|
-7°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-8°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
23
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
20
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
17
|
ESE
17
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
26
|
E
28
|
E
29
|
E
29
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
25
|
23
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
21
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
19
|
23
|
24
|
27
|
29
|
31
|
32
|
32
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
91%
|
88%
|
88%
|
87%
|
90%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
92%
|
91%
|
| UV | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
<5%
|
20%
|
30%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-11°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-11°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
29
|
E
30
|
E
31
|
E
32
|
E
33
|
E
30
|
E
32
|
E
33
|
E
35
|
E
37
|
E
39
|
E
40
|
E
40
|
E
40
|
E
39
|
E
39
|
E
39
|
E
48
|
E
48
|
E
48
|
E
46
|
E
46
|
E
45
|
E
45
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
32
|
33
|
34
|
35
|
37
|
33
|
34
|
35
|
36
|
37
|
43
|
40
|
44
|
44
|
43
|
43
|
43
|
53
|
53
|
52
|
51
|
50
|
50
|
50
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
91%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
92%
|
92%
|
90%
|
89%
|
88%
|
87%
|
87%
|
87%
|
86%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
50%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
90%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-13°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-12°
|
-11°
|
-10°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-8°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
46
|
E
46
|
E
46
|
E
45
|
E
44
|
E
35
|
E
35
|
E
34
|
E
32
|
E
31
|
E
31
|
E
31
|
E
31
|
E
30
|
E
29
|
E
28
|
E
26
|
E
31
|
E
29
|
E
28
|
E
27
|
E
26
|
E
25
|
E
24
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
50
|
51
|
51
|
50
|
48
|
39
|
38
|
37
|
35
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
33
|
32
|
28
|
27
|
34
|
32
|
30
|
30
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
G
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
83%
|
84%
|
84%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
83%
|
82%
|
82%
|
82%
|
84%
|
86%
|
87%
|
88%
|
88%
|
89%
|
90%
|
91%
|
91%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-8°
|
-7°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
24
|
ESE
23
|
E
23
|
E
22
|
E
22
|
E
18
|
E
18
|
E
18
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
E
18
|
E
20
|
ESE
20
|
ESE
20
|
ESE
20
|
ESE
19
|
E
18
|
E
21
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
23
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
26
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
19
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
21
|
23
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
93%
|
92%
|
89%
|
88%
|
87%
|
86%
|
87%
|
89%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-5°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-5°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-7°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
23
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
17
|
ESE
16
|
SE
16
|
SE
16
|
SE
17
|
SE
18
|
SE
18
|
SE
18
|
SE
18
|
SE
17
|
SE
15
|
SE
19
|
SE
18
|
SE
19
|
SE
19
|
SE
19
|
SE
19
|
SE
23
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
25
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
18
|
16
|
21
|
20
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
26
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
95%
|
93%
|
92%
|
91%
|
89%
|
88%
|
88%
|
91%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
0°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
-1°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-7°
|
-8°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-5°
|
-6°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
24
|
SE
20
|
SE
12
|
ESE
12
|
SE
22
|
SE
31
|
SE
26
|
SE
24
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
26
|
22
|
13
|
18
|
25
|
34
|
28
|
27
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
87%
|
87%
|
93%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-8°
|
-7°
|
-8°
|
-9°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
23
|
SE
17
|
ESE
18
|
SE
22
|
SE
28
|
SE
40
|
SE
34
|
ESE
32
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
25
|
19
|
19
|
23
|
31
|
44
|
37
|
35
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
92%
|
88%
|
88%
|
92%
|
92%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
High Stile weather map
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Briefly turning drier and brighter.
A dull and damp start as a rain band continues to clear northwards through the morning, bringing further snow to hills. Remaining rather cloudy, however, breaks develop in the west through the afternoon allowing for some brighter spells. Light winds. Maximum temperature 8 °C.
Turning increasingly cloudy from the east through the evening, bringing some patchy outbreaks of drizzle. Winds strengthening overnight, particularly over hills. A chilly night, but largely frost free. Minimum temperature 4 °C.
Remaining widely cloud on Thursday as a rain band spreads northwards, bringing further heavy and prolonged downpours as well as snow to hills. Persistent strong winds likely. Maximum temperature 6 °C.
A rather unsettled end to the week as outbreaks of heavy showers and periods of prolonged rain continue. Though brief brighter spells are possible over the weekend. Breezy at times.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: