Merrick (Dumfries and Galloway) weather

Headline:

Bright spells and a few showers today.

Today:

Some bright or sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers will become fewer during the afternoon although becoming cloudy. Fresh to strong west or southwesterly winds. Maximum temperature 10 °C.

Tonight:

A cloudy evening and night with outbreaks of rain spreading from the southwest, mainly over the hills. Becoming windy with fresh to strong southwesterly winds. Minimum temperature 6 °C.

Thursday:

Rain, occasionally heavy, will spread southeast across all parts in the morning. Then drier with a few showers following on in the afternoon. Windy at first. Maximum temperature 11 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Cold on Friday and Saturday with scattered showers, wintry on hills. Rain spreading east followed by showers on Sunday.

Mostly changeable through this period, with Atlantic frontal systems passing close to or across the UK at times. These will bring spells of rain and showers, most frequent and heavy in the west or northwest, and perhaps accompanied by strong winds. However, there should also be some drier interludes under transient ridges of high pressure, with longer dry periods most likely in the south and east, though even here some wet weather is possible at times. Temperatures will be near average for the period as a whole, but with some shorter-duration colder interludes at times when frost and hill snow will be possible. Later in the period there may be a transition to more blocked or slower evolving weather patterns, though confidence in the detail of this is low.

Blocked, or slowly evolving, weather patterns are favoured for late March into early April, with high pressure probably building to the north or northeast of the UK. Whilst confidence is low in how this will influence the weather across the UK, this tends to lead to a more prolonged period of a certain weather type, be it settled or unsettled. In any case, a reduction in Atlantic-dominated weather patterns is likely, although some wet weather remains possible at times, perhaps more especially in the south and east whilst northwestern areas tend to be drier than average. Temperatures will probably be close to average for the period as a whole, but there is an increased chance of some colder conditions developing for a time with a risk of frost.