Black Shoulder (Dumfries and Galloway) weather

Headline:

Mainly dry, bright Thursday morning. Cloudy afternoon, some rain.

This Evening and Tonight:

The evening will be cloudy and mainly dry with the chance of a few showers. Clear spells increase from late evening but the chance of an odd shower continues. Minimum temperature 9 °C.

Thursday:

Mainly dry bright morning with early sunshine, Cloudy afternoon with patchy light rain edging up from the south, dying away again later in evening. Maximum temperature 18 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Outbreaks rain clear north Friday leaving Saturday but mostly dry. Outbreaks rain spread north early Sunday, clearing to a few showers east Sunday afternoon.

Into next week, a northwest-southeast split is most likely. The best of drier spells will be in the north and northwest where some fog and frost patches are possible, but there will be spells or rain or showers in south and eastern areas, near to an area of low pressure. It will also turn colder, as a northerly flow becomes established for a time. Later in the week, more widely drier and settled conditions could develop as high pressure becomes more influential, although probably still with some coastal showers. Temperatures should gradually return closer to average in this period. Later in the period there may be a return to a more changeable pattern but this is uncertain.

By the beginning of October, confidence is very low in the weather regimes most likely to affect the UK. On balance, there will likely be a transition from slow-moving weather patterns to a more changeable period at some stage although the timing on this is highly uncertain. High pressure probably close to the UK, which would offer some occasional periods of dry weather, will likely give way to a more unsettled period with some short lived dry interludes during this time. Temperatures will likely fluctuate either side of, but often close to, average.