Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
06:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
80%
|
40%
|
20%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
40%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-8°
|
-8°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
15
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
E
11
|
E
10
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
10
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
20
|
20
|
20
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
15
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
| UV | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-3°
|
-3°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
11
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
14
|
E
15
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
17
|
E
18
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
20
|
E
21
|
E
21
|
E
21
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
21
|
E
21
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
20
|
24
|
26
|
27
|
28
|
29
|
29
|
30
|
31
|
32
|
34
|
34
|
35
|
35
|
35
|
35
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
35
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
| Visibility (description) |
VP
|
VP
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
99%
|
99%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-1°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
20
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
ENE
18
|
ENE
18
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
E
16
|
ENE
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
ENE
14
|
E
14
|
ENE
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
13
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
33
|
32
|
32
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
22
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
VP
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
100%
|
100%
|
99%
|
100%
|
99%
|
100%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
19
|
18
|
19
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
20
|
| Visibility (description) |
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
P
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
SE
12
|
SE
11
|
SE
11
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
20
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
18
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
18
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
13
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
VP
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
97%
|
96%
|
95%
|
94%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
10
|
SE
9
|
ESE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
16
|
15
|
15
|
18
|
17
|
15
|
14
|
14
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
96%
|
91%
|
90%
|
96%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
8
|
SE
7
|
SE
8
|
SE
10
|
SE
13
|
SE
13
|
SE
12
|
SE
12
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
14
|
13
|
17
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
94%
|
90%
|
90%
|
94%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Whitehope Law weather map
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Cloudy with rain, sleet and snow, becoming dry later. Breezy.
The day will begin cloudy with rain, sleet and snow. The snow will become increasingly confined to high ground before clearing from the south during the afternoon. Breezy. Maximum temperature 6 °C.
The evening will be dry but cloudy with the odd clear spell in the west. The wind will freshen as rain and hill snow spread west from the late evening. Minimum temperature 1 °C.
Further rain, sleet and snow in the east with snow falling to low levels. otherwise mostly dry with showers or longer spells of rain and hill snow spreading north later. Maximum temperature 6 °C.
Mostly cloudy but dry in the west through Friday to Sunday. Rain, sleet and snow will continue in the east, briefly spreading west at times.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: