Kaimes (Edinburgh) weather

Headline:

Winds, heavy rain clearing Wednesday morning. Then sunshine and showers.

This Evening and Tonight:

Mostly dry and cloudy evening, but a band of heavy rain reaches the southwest around midnight, spreading east overnight. Strong southeasterly winds bring coastal gales or severe gales in west. Minimum temperature 12 °C.

Wednesday:

Cloudy with heavy rain clearing eastwards through the morning. This leaves a largely dry afternoon with sunny spells developing, but also a few showers. Strong winds easing through the day. Maximum temperature 19 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Mostly dry with sunny spells Thursday, cloudier with rain spreading east overnight. Variable cloud Friday with rain or showers. Largely dry with sunny spells Saturday. Breezy at times.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.