Mickle Fell (Durham) weather

Headline:

Wet and windy start to today, brightening up later.

Today:

A wet and windy start, with heavy and blustery outbreaks of rain. Cloud clears and wind eases by late morning, with a bright and sunny day to follow. Showers developing, mainly across the Pennines, later in the afternoon. Maximum temperature 21 °C.

Tonight:

Cloudy periods and staying dry for most, although isolated showers remain possible. Mist or fog patches forming in places as the wind remains light. Feeling cooler overnight. Minimum temperature 7 °C.

Thursday:

Sunny spells throughout the day and remaining dry for most. The southwesterly wind strengthens for a time during the afternoon. Temperatures remain slightly above average in places. Maximum temperature 17 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Breezy with outbreaks of rain on Friday. Cloudy periods on Saturday. Cloudy with perhaps rain in places on Sunday. Temperatures around or slightly above average.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.