Dunnington (York) weather

Headline:

A cloudy night with patchy rain. Breezy.

This Evening and Tonight:

Cloudy with patchy light rain and fog for coastal and upland areas, although clearer spells develop briefly later. Rain turns more widespread with locally heavy bursts into Wednesday morning. Fresh to strong winds. Milder than recently. Minimum temperature 14 °C.

Wednesday:

Overcast with rain, heavy in places, to start. Turning partly cloudy with rain clearing east by midday. Mostly dry through the afternoon with showers later. Feeling warm with easing winds. Maximum temperature 22 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Largely dry and sunny on Thursday, clouding over later. Breezy with showers, heavy at times, on Friday. Dry and cloudy to start with rain later on Saturday. Temperatures around average.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.