East Midlands

Headline:

A fine evening, but cloudy and wet by morning.

This Evening and Tonight:

Partly cloudy with some sunny spells into the evening. Clouding over through the night with some mist and low cloud possible. Patchy rain developing towards dawn. Mild with fresh to strong winds. Minimum temperature 16 °C.

Wednesday:

Cloudy with patchy, mostly light, rain. The rain clears to the east around midday to leave a partly cloudy and dry afternoon. Warm in the sunshine and easing winds. Maximum temperature 23 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Largely dry and sunny on Thursday, clouding over later. Breezy with isolated showers on Friday. Dry and mostly cloudy on Saturday. Temperatures around average.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.