Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
70%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
9
|
ENE
7
|
NE
6
|
NNE
5
|
NNE
5
|
N
4
|
WSW
4
|
SW
4
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
16
|
12
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
9
|
10
|
10
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
98%
|
| UV | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SW
4
|
SSW
4
|
S
5
|
SSE
5
|
SSE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
8
|
SE
9
|
SE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
13
|
E
14
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
9
|
9
|
9
|
10
|
10
|
11
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
25
|
26
|
28
|
28
|
29
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
95%
|
92%
|
86%
|
85%
|
84%
|
84%
|
88%
|
92%
|
92%
|
91%
|
88%
|
87%
|
86%
|
84%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
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13:00
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14:00
|
15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
10%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
80%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
14
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
29
|
30
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
29
|
28
|
27
|
26
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
89%
|
91%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
|
10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
ESE
10
|
E
10
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
8
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
ESE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SSE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
23
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
13
|
12
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
94%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
10°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
9
|
SSE
9
|
SSE
10
|
SSE
10
|
SE
9
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
12
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
14
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
93%
|
92%
|
88%
|
87%
|
87%
|
88%
|
90%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
10°
|
10°
|
9°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
8°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
7
|
ESE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
9
|
SE
8
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
13
|
14
|
18
|
17
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
91%
|
88%
|
94%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
10%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
8
|
SE
9
|
SE
11
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
14
|
15
|
17
|
21
|
21
|
19
|
16
|
15
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
90%
|
88%
|
92%
|
94%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Boxford weather map
View the weather with our interactive map
Cloudy with rain and drizzle spreading north.
Cloudy and rather windy start, but most parts dry to start. However, rain and drizzle will soon move into southern areas, turning persistent for many, before spreading north through the morning and early afternoon. Winds also easing for a time. Maximum temperature 5 °C.
Cloudy, with rain and drizzle, mainly light, during the evening. Turning drier after midnight with rain easing away north and clear spells developing, but also some mist and fog patches. Minimum temperature 3 °C.
Early fog patches clearing through the morning with cloud also breaking. Staying largely dry with bright or sunny intervals. Rather misty at times along northern coasts. Winds also strengthening. Maximum temperature 9 °C.
Mainly cloudy, with spells of rain and drizzle. These most likely on Friday and Saturday. Breezy at times. Rather cold Thursday and Friday, perhaps less cold Saturday.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
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Whilst confidence is inevitably low through this period, a south-shifted jet stream is likely to persist for much of the time, steering areas of low pressure towards and south of the UK. This is likely to bring further spells of wet and windy weather, with rain most frequent in the south and west, and perhaps also eastern Scotland, with the driest conditions, relative to normal, in northwest Scotland. Some hill snow will be possible at times as the wet weather encounters colder air across northern parts of the UK. There is a hint that storm systems may start to track a little further north by March though. Temperatures overall will likely be close to average for most parts, but perhaps a little below in the northeast at first.
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