Tenby - North (Beach) (Pembrokeshire) weather

Here are our top tips to keep you, your friends and family safe at the beach with links to Royal National Lifeboat Institution (RNLI) and Met Office advice.



Forecast days

Overcast.
Beach safety today
Caution: strong winds may affect your paddling
  • • paddleboarding not recommended for beginners/intermediate
  • • experienced paddlers should use caution

Tide: Next low tide (1.8m) at

Sunrise iconSunrise:
Sunset iconSunset:
M UV
L Pollution

    7 day forecast for Tenby - North (Beach)

    Today (2 September 2026)
    Time
    23:00
    Weather symbols Overcast
    Chance of precipitation
    20%
    Temperature
    19°
    Feels like temperature (°C)
    17°
    Wind direction and speed
    WSW
    16
    Wind gust (mph)
    27
    Visibility
    P
    Humidity
    96%
    UV -
    Wind direction and speed
    16
    Height of waves offshore (m)
    0.5
    Period of waves offshore (s)
    8
    Direction of waves offshore
    Thursday (3 September 2026)
    Time
    00:00
    01:00
    02:00
    03:00
    04:00
    05:00
    06:00
    07:00
    08:00
    09:00
    10:00
    11:00
    12:00
    13:00
    14:00
    15:00
    16:00
    17:00
    18:00
    19:00
    20:00
    21:00
    22:00
    23:00
    Weather symbols Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Cloudy Cloudy Overcast Overcast Mist Mist
    Chance of precipitation
    10%
    <5%
    10%
    10%
    20%
    20%
    20%
    20%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    20%
    40%
    40%
    40%
    40%
    Temperature (°C)
    19°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    19°
    19°
    20°
    20°
    20°
    20°
    20°
    20°
    20°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    18°
    19°
    19°
    Feels like temperature (°C)
    17°
    16°
    16°
    16°
    16°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    Wind direction and speed (mph)
    WSW
    15
    WSW
    14
    WSW
    13
    WSW
    13
    WSW
    13
    WSW
    11
    WSW
    11
    WSW
    11
    WSW
    10
    WSW
    11
    WSW
    11
    WSW
    13
    WSW
    14
    SW
    14
    SW
    15
    SW
    16
    WSW
    16
    WSW
    15
    WSW
    15
    SW
    14
    SW
    13
    SW
    13
    SW
    14
    SW
    15
    Wind gust (mph)
    26
    25
    25
    25
    24
    23
    21
    20
    21
    21
    22
    23
    25
    26
    28
    28
    28
    28
    26
    26
    27
    28
    31
    35
    Visibility (description)
    M
    M
    G
    M
    M
    M
    M
    M
    G
    G
    G
    VG
    VG
    VG
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    M
    M
    M
    P
    Humidity
    94%
    93%
    92%
    93%
    93%
    93%
    93%
    93%
    92%
    88%
    86%
    82%
    78%
    80%
    80%
    78%
    77%
    78%
    82%
    86%
    87%
    91%
    92%
    93%
    UV - - - - - - 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 4 4 2 1 1 1 1 - - -
    Wind direction and speed (mph)
    15
    14
    13
    13
    13
    11
    11
    11
    10
    11
    11
    13
    14
    14
    15
    16
    16
    15
    15
    14
    13
    13
    14
    15
    Height of waves offshore (m)
    0.5
    0.5
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.5
    0.5
    0.6
    Period of waves offshore (s)
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    4
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    Direction of waves offshore
    Friday (4 September 2026)
    Time
    00:00
    01:00
    02:00
    03:00
    04:00
    05:00
    06:00
    07:00
    08:00
    09:00
    10:00
    11:00
    12:00
    13:00
    14:00
    15:00
    16:00
    17:00
    18:00
    19:00
    20:00
    21:00
    22:00
    23:00
    Weather symbols Mist Light rain Light rain Light rain Light rain Light rain Light rain Light rain Light rain Light rain Cloudy Cloudy Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny day Sunny day Sunny day Clear night Clear night Clear night Clear night
    Chance of precipitation
    40%
    50%
    80%
    80%
    70%
    80%
    80%
    70%
    70%
    60%
    40%
    30%
    20%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    Temperature (°C)
    19°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    18°
    18°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    18°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    18°
    18°
    17°
    16°
    15°
    15°
    Feels like temperature (°C)
    17°
    16°
    16°
    16°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    16°
    16°
    16°
    16°
    16°
    17°
    17°
    16°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    16°
    15°
    15°
    15°
    14°
    Wind direction and speed (mph)
    SW
    16
    SW
    18
    SW
    19
    SW
    18
    WSW
    16
    W
    14
    W
    11
    W
    11
    W
    10
    WNW
    10
    WNW
    10
    W
    11
    WNW
    11
    W
    11
    W
    13
    WNW
    12
    W
    11
    W
    11
    W
    10
    W
    9
    W
    8
    W
    8
    W
    7
    WNW
    7
    Wind gust (mph)
    38
    40
    40
    38
    36
    29
    26
    24
    22
    23
    24
    25
    25
    26
    26
    26
    26
    26
    23
    23
    21
    20
    18
    17
    Visibility (description)
    P
    M
    P
    P
    P
    P
    M
    M
    M
    G
    M
    G
    G
    G
    G
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    Humidity
    93%
    94%
    96%
    97%
    96%
    96%
    96%
    96%
    95%
    92%
    86%
    79%
    69%
    61%
    59%
    62%
    64%
    66%
    66%
    73%
    77%
    82%
    85%
    84%
    UV - - - - - - 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 - - - -
    Wind direction and speed (mph)
    16
    18
    19
    18
    16
    14
    11
    11
    10
    10
    10
    11
    11
    11
    13
    12
    11
    11
    10
    9
    8
    8
    7
    7
    Height of waves offshore (m)
    0.7
    0.8
    0.8
    0.7
    0.6
    0.5
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    Period of waves offshore (s)
    5
    6
    7
    7
    7
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    9
    9
    9
    9
    9
    Direction of waves offshore
    Saturday (5 September 2026)
    Time
    00:00
    01:00
    02:00
    03:00
    04:00
    05:00
    06:00
    07:00
    08:00
    09:00
    10:00
    11:00
    12:00
    13:00
    14:00
    15:00
    16:00
    17:00
    18:00
    19:00
    20:00
    21:00
    22:00
    23:00
    Weather symbols Clear night Clear night Clear night Clear night Clear night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night
    Chance of precipitation
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    10%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    <5%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    20%
    20%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    Temperature (°C)
    14°
    13°
    13°
    12°
    11°
    11°
    11°
    11°
    12°
    15°
    17°
    18°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    Feels like temperature (°C)
    13°
    12°
    12°
    11°
    11°
    10°
    10°
    11°
    12°
    15°
    17°
    17°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    Wind direction and speed (mph)
    WNW
    7
    WNW
    7
    WNW
    6
    WNW
    5
    WNW
    5
    WNW
    5
    WNW
    4
    NW
    3
    NW
    3
    WNW
    3
    WSW
    4
    SSW
    5
    SSW
    6
    SSW
    7
    SSW
    7
    SSW
    8
    SSW
    8
    S
    8
    S
    8
    S
    8
    S
    7
    S
    8
    S
    9
    S
    9
    Wind gust (mph)
    17
    16
    15
    13
    12
    11
    10
    9
    9
    10
    11
    13
    13
    15
    15
    16
    17
    16
    15
    15
    18
    18
    19
    21
    Visibility (description)
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    G
    G
    G
    G
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    VG
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    Humidity
    84%
    85%
    88%
    89%
    90%
    91%
    92%
    91%
    84%
    76%
    67%
    64%
    63%
    63%
    64%
    64%
    64%
    65%
    69%
    76%
    83%
    84%
    83%
    83%
    UV - - - - - - 1 1 1 1 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 - - - -
    Wind direction and speed (mph)
    7
    7
    6
    5
    5
    5
    4
    3
    3
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    7
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    7
    8
    9
    9
    Height of waves offshore (m)
    0.3
    0.2
    0.2
    0.2
    0.2
    0.2
    0.2
    0.2
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.3
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.4
    0.5
    0.6
    Period of waves offshore (s)
    9
    9
    9
    9
    14
    14
    13
    13
    7
    7
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    4
    4
    4
    Direction of waves offshore
    Sunday (6 September 2026)
    Time
    00:00
    01:00
    02:00
    03:00
    04:00
    05:00
    06:00
    07:00
    08:00
    09:00
    10:00
    11:00
    12:00
    13:00
    14:00
    15:00
    16:00
    17:00
    18:00
    19:00
    20:00
    21:00
    22:00
    23:00
    Weather symbols Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Cloudy Overcast Overcast Overcast Overcast Overcast Overcast Overcast Overcast
    Chance of precipitation
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    20%
    20%
    20%
    30%
    40%
    40%
    30%
    30%
    40%
    40%
    30%
    Temperature (°C)
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    19°
    19°
    20°
    20°
    21°
    21°
    20°
    20°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    18°
    18°
    Feels like temperature (°C)
    17°
    17°
    17°
    16°
    17°
    17°
    16°
    16°
    16°
    17°
    17°
    17°
    18°
    18°
    19°
    19°
    19°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    18°
    17°
    16°
    Wind direction and speed (mph)
    S
    10
    S
    10
    SSE
    10
    SSE
    11
    SSE
    11
    SSE
    11
    SSE
    11
    SSE
    11
    SSE
    11
    SSE
    11
    SSE
    13
    S
    13
    S
    13
    S
    13
    S
    13
    S
    13
    SSW
    13
    SSW
    13
    SSW
    13
    SW
    13
    SW
    11
    SW
    11
    WSW
    11
    WSW
    13
    Wind gust (mph)
    20
    21
    21
    22
    22
    22
    22
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    24
    25
    27
    27
    26
    26
    25
    24
    25
    26
    26
    27
    Visibility (description)
    G
    G
    G
    M
    M
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    G
    M
    M
    G
    M
    M
    Humidity
    84%
    85%
    85%
    86%
    86%
    87%
    86%
    87%
    85%
    84%
    80%
    79%
    79%
    80%
    82%
    83%
    84%
    86%
    90%
    92%
    94%
    93%
    93%
    92%
    UV - - - - - - 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 - - - -
    Wind direction and speed (mph)
    10
    10
    10
    11
    11
    11
    11
    11
    11
    11
    13
    13
    13
    13
    13
    13
    13
    13
    13
    13
    11
    11
    11
    13
    Height of waves offshore (m)
    0.6
    0.6
    0.6
    0.6
    0.6
    0.6
    0.6
    0.6
    0.6
    0.6
    0.7
    0.7
    0.7
    0.7
    0.7
    0.7
    0.7
    0.8
    0.8
    0.8
    0.8
    0.7
    0.7
    0.7
    Period of waves offshore (s)
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    6
    6
    Direction of waves offshore
    Monday (7 September 2026)
    Time
    00:00
    01:00
    04:00
    07:00
    10:00
    13:00
    16:00
    19:00
    22:00
    Weather symbols Cloudy Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Cloudy Cloudy Light shower night
    Chance of precipitation
    30%
    30%
    20%
    20%
    10%
    20%
    20%
    40%
    50%
    Temperature (°C)
    18°
    18°
    17°
    16°
    18°
    19°
    18°
    17°
    17°
    Feels like temperature (°C)
    17°
    16°
    15°
    15°
    16°
    17°
    16°
    16°
    15°
    Wind direction and speed (mph)
    WSW
    11
    W
    11
    W
    10
    W
    8
    W
    11
    WSW
    11
    WSW
    13
    WSW
    11
    WSW
    11
    Wind gust (mph)
    28
    26
    23
    23
    26
    27
    27
    24
    23
    Visibility (description)
    M
    M
    M
    M
    G
    G
    G
    M
    M
    Humidity
    91%
    90%
    89%
    90%
    75%
    69%
    72%
    82%
    86%
    UV - - - 1 3 4 2 1 -
    Wind direction and speed (mph)
    11
    11
    10
    8
    11
    11
    13
    11
    11
    Height of waves offshore (m)
    0.7
    0.6
    0.6
    0.6
    0.6
    0.6
    0.8
    0.8
    0.7
    Period of waves offshore (s)
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    8
    10
    Direction of waves offshore
    Tuesday (8 September 2026)
    Time
    01:00
    04:00
    07:00
    10:00
    13:00
    16:00
    19:00
    22:00
    Weather symbols Light shower night Light shower night Light shower day Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night
    Chance of precipitation
    60%
    60%
    50%
    40%
    40%
    40%
    40%
    30%
    Temperature (°C)
    16°
    16°
    16°
    17°
    18°
    17°
    17°
    15°
    Feels like temperature (°C)
    14°
    14°
    14°
    14°
    15°
    14°
    14°
    13°
    Wind direction and speed (mph)
    WSW
    11
    WSW
    11
    WSW
    13
    W
    13
    W
    16
    W
    15
    WNW
    13
    WNW
    11
    Wind gust (mph)
    24
    24
    31
    33
    34
    32
    27
    26
    Visibility (description)
    M
    M
    M
    M
    M
    M
    G
    G
    Humidity
    89%
    90%
    90%
    78%
    67%
    66%
    70%
    79%
    UV - - 1 3 5 2 1 -
    Wind direction and speed (mph)
    11
    Height of waves offshore (m)
    0.6
    Period of waves offshore (s)
    10
    Direction of waves offshore

    Tide times

    Wednesday 2 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Wednesday 2 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Wednesday 2 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Wednesday 2 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Thursday 3 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Thursday 3 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Thursday 3 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Thursday 3 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Friday 4 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Friday 4 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Friday 4 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Friday 4 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Saturday 5 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Saturday 5 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Saturday 5 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Saturday 5 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Sunday 6 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Sunday 6 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Sunday 6 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Sunday 6 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Monday 7 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Monday 7 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Monday 7 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Monday 7 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Tuesday 8 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Tuesday 8 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Tuesday 8 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tide times

    Tuesday 8 September

    Tide times and heights are from Tenby tidal station which is 0.5 miles away. So times may be different at this beach. What does this mean?

    Contains ADMIRALTY® tidal data: © Crown Copyright and database right.

    Tenby - North (Beach) weather map

    View the weather with our interactive map

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    Wales weather forecast

    Headline:

    Cloud and rain this evening but turning brighter tomorrow.

    This Evening and Tonight:

    Cloud and light rain persisting at first this evening with rain gradually clearing to the north. Remaining cloudy overnight, which may be low enough to create some hill fog, with the potential for the odd spot of drizzle. Staying mild. Minimum temperature 12 °C.

    Thursday:

    A drier day ahead although still generally cloudy with the best of the brightness to the east. A brisk westerly wind, feeling warm and humid, particularly in any sunny breaks. Maximum temperature 23 °C.

    Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

    Wet and cloudy at first on Friday, with rain clearing southwards and brighter weather following. Saturday looks settled, before a bright, breezy and potentially warm Sunday.

    Updated:

    UK long range weather forecast