Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | |||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
10%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
17
|
ESE
17
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
14
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
31
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
85%
|
86%
|
87%
|
89%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
| UV | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
14
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
17
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
20
|
E
21
|
E
21
|
E
21
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
26
|
26
|
27
|
28
|
30
|
31
|
33
|
33
|
33
|
33
|
32
|
34
|
34
|
35
|
35
|
36
|
36
|
35
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
93%
|
92%
|
88%
|
85%
|
84%
|
80%
|
76%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
77%
|
77%
|
79%
|
80%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
50%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
19
|
E
18
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
E
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
ESE
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
36
|
36
|
36
|
36
|
36
|
34
|
33
|
31
|
32
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
29
|
30
|
30
|
31
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
28
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
82%
|
83%
|
84%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
87%
|
89%
|
90%
|
91%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
91%
|
89%
|
89%
|
91%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
16
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
27
|
25
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
25
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
21
|
21
|
22
|
22
|
23
|
22
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
95%
|
93%
|
93%
|
92%
|
89%
|
89%
|
90%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
92%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
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09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
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13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
10°
|
10°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
SE
11
|
SE
10
|
SE
10
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
SE
9
|
SE
9
|
SSE
9
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
22
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
20
|
19
|
17
|
17
|
17
|
18
|
17
|
18
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
92%
|
91%
|
89%
|
87%
|
87%
|
87%
|
87%
|
91%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
9
|
SSE
8
|
S
8
|
SE
9
|
SSE
11
|
S
11
|
SSE
9
|
SSE
10
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
16
|
15
|
15
|
18
|
19
|
17
|
17
|
18
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
96%
|
97%
|
96%
|
91%
|
88%
|
95%
|
94%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
7°
|
9°
|
9°
|
7°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
4°
|
6°
|
7°
|
5°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
11
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
10
|
E
8
|
ESE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
18
|
17
|
17
|
19
|
20
|
17
|
13
|
11
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
M
|
| Humidity |
94%
|
93%
|
94%
|
93%
|
85%
|
81%
|
92%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Pentlepoir Youth Hostel weather map
View the weather with our interactive map
Cloudy with rain and hill snow arriving.
Widely cloudy and wet as rain pushes across the country, locally heavy in the southeast and falling as snow over hills. Feeling cold in the brisk winds, strongest around coastal regions and near higher ground. Maximum temperature 7 °C.
A damp end to Tuesday with rain and hill snow only gradually clearing northwards overnight. Remaining cloudy after this with the potential for fog patches forming as winds fall light. Minimum temperature 2 °C.
Murky in places to begin as low cloud lifts. Lingering spots of rain and showers possible, but perhaps with some brighter spells as well. Slightly milder than Tuesday. Maximum temperature 9 °C.
Remaining rather dull throughout the week with limited brighter spells, giving a cool feel. Some drier moments but with the ongoing chance for outbreaks of rain. Breezy at times.
Updated:
Frontal systems over the Atlantic, steered by a south-shifted jet stream, are likely to approach the UK at times, but tending to stall as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the north and northeast. This will result in further spells of rain at times, falling in areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, some snow will be possible in northern England and Scotland, mainly over higher ground, as they encounter colder air. A subtle shift southwards of these areas of low pressure is anticipated during the second week of February, which may allow a greater chance of colder air to spread across larger parts of the UK at times, including the south, bringing an increased risk of wintry hazards.
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Whilst confidence is inevitably low through this period, a south-shifted jet stream is likely to persist for much of the time, steering areas of low pressure towards and south of the UK. This is likely to bring further spells of wet and windy weather, with rain most frequent in the south and west, and perhaps also eastern Scotland, with the driest conditions, relative to normal, in northwest Scotland. Some hill snow will be possible at times as the wet weather encounters colder air across northern parts of the UK. There is a hint that storm systems may start to track a little further north by March though. Temperatures overall will likely be close to average for most parts, but perhaps a little below in the northeast at first.
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