Abercarn (Caerphilly) weather

Headline:

Briefly settled before returning to wet and windy conditions.

Today:

A bright and dry start for most, with some patchy cloud lingering at first. A largely settled day, with prolonged sunshine, though the odd light shower is possible in the west. A light breeze, with temperatures near average. Maximum temperature 9 °C.

Tonight:

Remaining largely settled overnight, with skies becoming clear allowing frost patches to form. Turning increasingly cloudy with strengthening winds from the west from dawn ahead of a rain band. Minimum temperature 3 °C.

Wednesday:

A wet and windy day as a band of prolonged rain spreads eastwards, bringing heavy and disruptive downpours, with coastal gales likely and localised flooding possible. Maximum temperature 11 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Remaining unsettled on Thursday with further heavy and disruptive rainfall. Friday brings bright and drier conditions, with occasional showers, before another rain band moves in on Saturday. Often breezy.

Unsettled conditions are likely to continue at first, with low pressure probably centred somewhere to the southwest of the UK, whilst high pressure tries to nose in from the east across northern areas. This means a broadly easterly flow becoming established, whilst periods of rain or showers becoming increasingly confined to southern or southwestern parts. With time, high pressure is signalled to become rather more dominant with more in the way dry, settled weather anticipated. With this, temperatures will probably lower a little compared to recent weeks, closer to or perhaps a little below average for some. Overnight frost and fog or freezing fog could become more widespread, though any particularly cold conditions look unlikely at this stage.

High pressure will probably be close by to the UK at the start of this period, which would maintain a fair amount of dry, settled weather. With this comes the potential for fog and frost, and lower temperatures overall, though nothing unusually cold is currently signalled. Towards mid-January, perhaps a greater chance of more changeable conditions re-asserting themselves, though this is rather uncertain at present.