Belper (Derbyshire) weather

Headline:

Cloudy start, brighter and very warm later today

Today:

Cloudy start with light rain or drizzle for some, drier with cloud breaking up in the afternoon. Feeling warm for the time of year with temperatures reaching the mid-twenties. Cooler and breezier along the coast. Maximum temperature 25 °C.

Tonight:

Cloudy with outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, during the second half of the night. A strengthening southeasterly wind. A mild and muggy night. Minimum temperature 17 °C.

Wednesday:

Wet, cloudy and breezy start but brightening up by the afternoon with the wind easing for a time. Cloudier with the odd shower by the evening. Maximum temperature 22 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Clear start to Thursday, some patchy cloud develops later. Sharp showers affecting some on Friday. Cloudy periods but remaining mostly dry on Saturday.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.