Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
70%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
9
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
7
|
NE
6
|
NE
6
|
NE
6
|
NE
5
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
19
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
| Humidity |
87%
|
90%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
96%
|
98%
|
| UV | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
80%
|
60%
|
40%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
0°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
NE
5
|
NE
4
|
NE
3
|
ENE
3
|
E
3
|
ESE
2
|
SE
2
|
SSE
3
|
SE
3
|
SSE
3
|
SSE
3
|
SE
3
|
ESE
4
|
ESE
5
|
ESE
5
|
E
5
|
E
6
|
E
6
|
ENE
7
|
E
8
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
E
9
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
12
|
11
|
9
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
9
|
9
|
10
|
10
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
15
|
16
|
19
|
22
|
23
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
25
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
G
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
96%
|
94%
|
92%
|
91%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
97%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
|
03:00
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04:00
|
05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
9
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
9
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
26
|
27
|
28
|
28
|
29
|
29
|
31
|
31
|
32
|
31
|
32
|
32
|
31
|
31
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
29
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
94%
|
92%
|
92%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
9
|
ENE
9
|
ENE
9
|
ENE
9
|
ENE
9
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
6
|
ENE
6
|
ENE
6
|
ENE
5
|
ENE
5
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
26
|
27
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
NE
5
|
NE
5
|
NE
5
|
NE
4
|
NE
4
|
NE
4
|
NE
4
|
ENE
4
|
ENE
4
|
ENE
5
|
E
5
|
E
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
E
6
|
E
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
14
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
11
|
12
|
12
|
13
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
17
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
96%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
8°
|
7°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
8
|
ESE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
15
|
14
|
15
|
17
|
18
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
94%
|
92%
|
95%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
8°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
9
|
E
8
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
15
|
16
|
17
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
97%
|
93%
|
92%
|
95%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Grimesthorpe weather map
View the weather with our interactive map
Cloudy. Drier intervals but also outbreaks of rain and drizzle.
Cloudy and rather windy, especially across hills. Staying dry for most, although a few outbreaks of light rain and drizzle are possible, along with hill fog across the Pennines. Feeling chilly. Perhaps some drizzle into southern parts by the evening. Maximum temperature 4 °C.
Cloudy and breezy, with rain and drizzle spreading north, perhaps briefly wintry with transient hill snow possible. Precipitation turning back to rain for most, as it clears north around dawn. Minimum temperature 0 °C.
Any lingering rain soon fading, with winds also easing. Staying cloudy with hill fog and only limited brighter intervals. Most parts dry, but perhaps some further drizzle later. Less cold Maximum temperature 6 °C.
Mainly cloudy, with spells of rain and drizzle. These most likely on Friday, with some hill snow, and Saturday. Breezy at times. Cold Thursday and Friday, perhaps less cold Saturday.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
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Whilst confidence is inevitably low through this period, a south-shifted jet stream is likely to persist for much of the time, steering areas of low pressure towards and south of the UK. This is likely to bring further spells of wet and windy weather, with rain most frequent in the south and west, and perhaps also eastern Scotland, with the driest conditions, relative to normal, in northwest Scotland. Some hill snow will be possible at times as the wet weather encounters colder air across northern parts of the UK. There is a hint that storm systems may start to track a little further north by March though. Temperatures overall will likely be close to average for most parts, but perhaps a little below in the northeast at first.
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