Kinoulton (Nottinghamshire) weather

Headline:

Cloudy and breezy morning, sunnier afternoon.

Today:

A cloudy and windy start, with outbreaks of rain, some short-lived heavy pulses possible. Cloud clears and wind eases by early afternoon, with bright and sunny conditions to follow. The odd shower developing later in the afternoon, across western parts. Maximum temperature 23 °C.

Tonight:

A mix of clear and cloudy periods overnight with light rain or showers possible. Mist or fog patches forming by dawn in light wind. Feeling cooler compared to last night. Minimum temperature 11 °C.

Thursday:

Largely clear start and end to the day, some cloud forming during the afternoon but remaining dry for most. Wind strengthening for a time. Remaining slightly warmer than the norm. Maximum temperature 19 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Dry Friday morning, wet and windy for some later. Cloudy and possibly wet in places Saturday. Fog patches Sunday morning, dry with variable amounts of cloud later. Above average temperatures.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.