Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | |||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
80%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
15
|
E
16
|
E
17
|
E
16
|
ENE
15
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
15
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
28
|
28
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
24
|
25
|
25
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
23
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
| UV | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
15
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
14
|
E
15
|
ENE
18
|
ENE
20
|
ENE
22
|
E
23
|
E
23
|
E
24
|
E
25
|
E
27
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
27
|
E
27
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
27
|
E
27
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
24
|
26
|
28
|
30
|
32
|
33
|
35
|
36
|
37
|
38
|
39
|
40
|
42
|
44
|
45
|
45
|
47
|
46
|
46
|
45
|
45
|
44
|
44
|
44
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
84%
|
82%
|
78%
|
76%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
76%
|
76%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
28
|
E
27
|
E
26
|
E
26
|
E
25
|
ENE
25
|
ENE
25
|
E
25
|
E
25
|
E
24
|
E
24
|
E
24
|
E
23
|
E
23
|
E
22
|
E
22
|
ENE
21
|
ENE
21
|
E
21
|
E
21
|
E
21
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
43
|
43
|
42
|
43
|
40
|
41
|
38
|
38
|
38
|
38
|
38
|
37
|
36
|
36
|
35
|
35
|
35
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
33
|
33
|
33
|
32
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
76%
|
75%
|
76%
|
76%
|
77%
|
77%
|
77%
|
76%
|
76%
|
76%
|
76%
|
76%
|
77%
|
81%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
85%
|
85%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
21
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
19
|
E
18
|
E
18
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
15
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
ENE
14
|
E
13
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
31
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
27
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
28
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
24
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
85%
|
86%
|
85%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
84%
|
85%
|
86%
|
87%
|
87%
|
87%
|
87%
|
87%
|
87%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
11
|
E
11
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
87%
|
88%
|
88%
|
88%
|
88%
|
90%
|
90%
|
89%
|
88%
|
87%
|
87%
|
86%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
87%
|
88%
|
88%
|
90%
|
89%
|
89%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
12
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
12
|
SE
12
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
13
|
E
12
|
E
14
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
20
|
19
|
21
|
22
|
22
|
20
|
22
|
23
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
88%
|
89%
|
89%
|
89%
|
87%
|
85%
|
86%
|
87%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
14
|
E
15
|
E
16
|
E
18
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
24
|
25
|
27
|
29
|
31
|
32
|
31
|
31
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
88%
|
89%
|
88%
|
86%
|
85%
|
84%
|
85%
|
86%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Ballochroy weather map
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Cloudy with rain, sleet and snow. Windy along the coast.
The day will stay cloudy with rain, sleet and snow. The snow will become increasingly confined to high ground as the north turns drier during the afternoon. It will be windy along the coast. Maximum temperature 6 °C.
Rain, sleet and hill snow will become confined to far eastern parts from the late evening. The night will stay cloudy and mostly dry away from the east. Minimum temperature 1 °C.
Further rain, sleet and snow in far east with snow falling to low levels. otherwise mostly dry with showers or longer spells of rain and hill snow spreading north later. Maximum temperature 6 °C.
Mostly cloudy but dry through Friday to Sunday. Rain, sleet and snow will continue in the far east, briefly spreading west at times.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: