Warcop (Cumbria) weather

Headline:

Turning wet and windy overnight. Mild.

This Evening and Tonight:

Dry with clear spells this evening, before heavy rain sweeps across the region overnight, accompanied by strong winds for a time. Remaining mild for late September. Minimum temperature 10 °C.

Wednesday:

A wet start, with difficult travelling conditions in places. The rain will clear throughout the morning, with a mix of sunny spells and the odd shower following. Winds also easing. Maximum temperature 22 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Largely dry with sunny spells Thursday, before rain arrives Friday. Drier and brighter Saturday once early mist and fog clears. Temperatures returning nearer to average for early October.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.