Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | |||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
50%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
6
|
NE
6
|
NE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
17
|
15
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
87%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
95%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
70%
|
50%
|
30%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
6
|
ENE
6
|
E
6
|
E
5
|
E
5
|
E
4
|
ESE
4
|
SE
4
|
SE
4
|
SE
4
|
SE
5
|
SE
5
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
E
7
|
E
8
|
E
9
|
E
11
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
12
|
13
|
12
|
10
|
9
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
8
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
19
|
22
|
23
|
25
|
24
|
25
|
26
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
92%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
93%
|
94%
|
96%
|
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
27
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
30
|
30
|
31
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
31
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
29
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
93%
|
92%
|
92%
|
91%
|
90%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
90%
|
89%
|
90%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
0°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
ENE
13
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
9
|
ENE
9
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
27
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
25
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
23
|
22
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
7
|
ENE
6
|
ENE
6
|
ENE
6
|
ENE
5
|
ENE
5
|
ENE
5
|
ENE
5
|
E
6
|
E
6
|
E
6
|
E
6
|
E
7
|
ESE
8
|
E
8
|
E
7
|
E
7
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
E
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
12
|
12
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
16
|
15
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
97%
|
95%
|
93%
|
92%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
14
|
14
|
15
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
14
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
92%
|
89%
|
92%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
9°
|
8°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
7
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
9
|
E
8
|
E
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
14
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
18
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
91%
|
90%
|
92%
|
93%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Doncaster Racecourse weather map
View the weather with our interactive map
Cloudy and breezy with a little rain and hill snow.
Cloudy and cold, with easterly winds. Spells of mainly light rain in eastern parts and hill snow inland will become more persistent later in the night, with some slight snow accumulations and icy patches over inland hills by dawn. Minimum temperature -1 °C.
A cloudy and damp start, with a little further snow and some icy patches possible inland for a time. Becoming drier towards lunchtime, but probably remaining rather cloudy and cold. Maximum temperature 6 °C.
Staying mainly cold and cloudy, with variations on easterly winds continuing. Further periods of rain making gradual progress northwards, giving a transient snow and ice risk at times over hills.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
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Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
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