Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
19
|
ENE
18
|
E
16
|
E
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
14
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
33
|
31
|
31
|
29
|
28
|
28
|
| Visibility (description) |
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
| Humidity |
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
74%
|
74%
|
75%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
40%
|
40%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
14
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
E
15
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
ESE
10
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
26
|
26
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
24
|
24
|
25
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
| Visibility (description) |
E
|
E
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
76%
|
76%
|
77%
|
78%
|
79%
|
81%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
6°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
11
|
ESE
11
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
15
|
E
16
|
E
17
|
E
18
|
E
19
|
E
20
|
ENE
21
|
ENE
22
|
ENE
22
|
ENE
22
|
ENE
23
|
ENE
24
|
ENE
24
|
E
24
|
E
24
|
E
24
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
22
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
26
|
28
|
30
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
33
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
36
|
36
|
36
|
37
|
38
|
38
|
39
|
38
|
38
|
38
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
E
|
VG
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
| Humidity |
83%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
83%
|
82%
|
80%
|
80%
|
78%
|
75%
|
75%
|
74%
|
73%
|
73%
|
73%
|
74%
|
74%
|
74%
|
75%
|
74%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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20:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
24
|
E
25
|
E
24
|
E
24
|
E
23
|
E
22
|
E
22
|
ENE
21
|
ENE
21
|
ENE
21
|
ENE
21
|
E
22
|
E
22
|
E
21
|
E
21
|
E
20
|
E
20
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
18
|
ENE
18
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
37
|
37
|
36
|
36
|
35
|
35
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
33
|
33
|
33
|
32
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
32
|
31
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
| Visibility (description) |
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
| Humidity |
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
73%
|
70%
|
67%
|
67%
|
67%
|
70%
|
73%
|
74%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
75%
|
76%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
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09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
13
|
ENE
13
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
27
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
22
|
| Visibility (description) |
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
76%
|
76%
|
76%
|
77%
|
78%
|
79%
|
78%
|
79%
|
80%
|
80%
|
78%
|
77%
|
77%
|
76%
|
77%
|
78%
|
79%
|
81%
|
82%
|
83%
|
83%
|
84%
|
84%
|
83%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
12
|
ENE
12
|
E
12
|
E
13
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
14
|
E
14
|
ESE
15
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
20
|
19
|
19
|
20
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
83%
|
83%
|
82%
|
82%
|
78%
|
78%
|
79%
|
83%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
15
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
15
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
14
|
ESE
13
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
21
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
21
|
21
|
19
|
20
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
82%
|
81%
|
79%
|
81%
|
82%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Benbecula (Balivanich) Airport weather map
View the weather with our interactive map
Cloudy, outbreaks rain sleet and hill snow, heaviest in east.
Further wintry showers in the evening and overnight, mainly for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. Staying dry around the west coast and Western Isles. Strong winds at times. Minimum temperature -1 °C.
Further rain, sleet and hill snow in the morning, mainly in the east. This extending to all areas for a time in the afternoon, then becoming largely dry by evening. Maximum temperature 6 °C.
Showers in the east with sleet and snow at times, more frequent on Saturday. Mainly dry across the west. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds along exposed coasts.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
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