Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
04:00
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05:00
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07:00
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08:00
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10:00
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11:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
34
|
ESE
33
|
ESE
32
|
ESE
32
|
ESE
32
|
ESE
33
|
ESE
33
|
ESE
34
|
ESE
34
|
ESE
35
|
ESE
35
|
ESE
35
|
ESE
35
|
ESE
36
|
ESE
36
|
ESE
36
|
ESE
36
|
ESE
36
|
ESE
36
|
ESE
35
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
47
|
45
|
44
|
45
|
45
|
46
|
46
|
47
|
48
|
48
|
49
|
49
|
50
|
50
|
51
|
51
|
51
|
51
|
50
|
50
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
84%
|
84%
|
85%
|
87%
|
88%
|
87%
|
86%
|
87%
|
85%
|
85%
|
86%
|
88%
|
87%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
87%
|
87%
|
88%
|
89%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
60%
|
40%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
35
|
ESE
34
|
SE
34
|
SE
34
|
SE
34
|
SE
34
|
SE
33
|
SE
32
|
SE
30
|
SE
28
|
SE
27
|
SE
26
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
20
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
17
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
E
17
|
E
16
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
49
|
49
|
48
|
48
|
48
|
46
|
46
|
43
|
41
|
39
|
37
|
36
|
34
|
34
|
32
|
31
|
30
|
27
|
24
|
23
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
| Humidity |
88%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
84%
|
83%
|
80%
|
76%
|
75%
|
75%
|
73%
|
72%
|
71%
|
71%
|
69%
|
66%
|
65%
|
65%
|
64%
|
63%
|
63%
|
62%
|
59%
|
58%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
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06:00
|
07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
|
15:00
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16:00
|
17:00
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18:00
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19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
16
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
14
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
ESE
11
|
E
11
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
12
|
SE
13
|
SE
13
|
SE
14
|
SE
14
|
SE
14
|
SE
14
|
SE
14
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
21
|
21
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
17
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
20
|
| Visibility (description) |
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
| Humidity |
58%
|
60%
|
60%
|
61%
|
60%
|
60%
|
59%
|
59%
|
59%
|
59%
|
59%
|
59%
|
59%
|
59%
|
58%
|
59%
|
62%
|
63%
|
64%
|
67%
|
69%
|
68%
|
70%
|
69%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
14
|
ESE
14
|
SE
15
|
SE
16
|
SE
16
|
SE
17
|
SE
17
|
SE
17
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
19
|
SE
19
|
SE
19
|
SE
20
|
SE
20
|
SE
20
|
SE
20
|
SE
20
|
SE
21
|
SE
21
|
SE
22
|
SE
22
|
SE
23
|
SE
23
|
SE
23
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
21
|
21
|
22
|
22
|
25
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
27
|
27
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
28
|
29
|
30
|
30
|
31
|
31
|
32
|
32
|
| Visibility (description) |
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
E
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
70%
|
72%
|
73%
|
74%
|
73%
|
73%
|
73%
|
73%
|
73%
|
72%
|
73%
|
74%
|
73%
|
74%
|
75%
|
76%
|
76%
|
76%
|
75%
|
75%
|
76%
|
76%
|
75%
|
75%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
24
|
SE
25
|
SE
25
|
SE
25
|
SE
25
|
SE
25
|
SE
25
|
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
SE
27
|
SE
27
|
SE
27
|
SE
27
|
SE
27
|
SE
27
|
SE
27
|
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
33
|
33
|
34
|
34
|
35
|
36
|
36
|
36
|
36
|
36
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
36
|
36
|
36
|
37
|
36
|
36
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
77%
|
76%
|
77%
|
77%
|
76%
|
77%
|
77%
|
79%
|
79%
|
81%
|
80%
|
81%
|
81%
|
82%
|
80%
|
81%
|
82%
|
83%
|
83%
|
83%
|
83%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
26
|
SE
25
|
SE
24
|
SE
24
|
SE
23
|
SE
22
|
SE
21
|
SE
20
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
38
|
36
|
35
|
34
|
33
|
32
|
31
|
30
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
84%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
85%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
20
|
SE
19
|
SE
19
|
SE
20
|
SE
19
|
SE
19
|
ESE
19
|
SE
18
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
29
|
28
|
29
|
29
|
28
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
| Humidity |
84%
|
86%
|
84%
|
83%
|
84%
|
84%
|
83%
|
83%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
South Nesting Bay weather map
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Cloudy and cold with sleet or snow.
Persistent sleet and snow will spread north to Shetland through the evening and overnight. Snow over Orkney will turn to rain or sleet. Strong east to southeast winds. Minimum temperature 0 °C.
It will stay cloudy, cold and windy throughout the day with persistent rain or sleet over Orkney, and sleet or snow over Shetland. Maximum temperature 3 °C.
Little change, remaining cold and windy with sleet or snow showers, drier through Friday, then becoming more persistent through Saturday.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: