West Midlands

Headline:

Rain chances increase during the week ahead.

This Evening and Tonight:

Any evening brightness will gradually be replaced by cloudy skies overnight. A few spots of rain then developing by dawn, mainly over northern hills. Another rather mild night ahead with light winds. Minimum temperature 16 °C.

Monday:

A rather cloudy start but some breaks will develop allowing some sunshine. Feeling warm and humid with a few spots of rain possible, which may turn heavier later. Maximum temperature 26 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Overnight rain clearing to sunny spells and scattered showers Tuesday. Showers turning more frequent through Wednesday and Thursday, with some heavier bursts possible.

A rather changeable period is likely, with many parts of the UK seeing showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain. However, there will be some drier interludes as high pressure moves across the UK at times. There is also a chance that deeper Atlantic lows could lead to periods of widespread rain and strong winds at times, while some outbreaks of thunderstorms are also possible. Temperatures are more likely to be above normal than below overall, though the possibility of widespread or exceptional heat is lower than in recent weeks.

As we move into the start of meteorological autumn, signals for the prevailing weather patterns affecting the UK are weak, thus something close to the climatological norm is most likely. This means a broad northwest-southeast split in conditions, with the high pressure becoming centred close to the south of the UK and more changeable conditions developing towards the north and northwest. Meanwhile, drier, more settled weather is slightly more likely towards the south and east. Temperatures are likely to be above average overall. There is a chance that late season hot spells or heatwaves develop, especially in the south.